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Value of: Marner

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Bruce Granville said:
So offer him to Arizona together with Matthews.
There are not many teams who care about owed vs AAV.
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????? That’s….. not true? At all

Many teams care about the money. St. Louis lost players over signing bonuses. There are plenty that absolutely care about bottom line
 
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Toronto: Guentzel with extension + 14th OA

Anaheim: Marner

Pittsburgh: 2nd OA


Pens then use the cap space to sign Meier
 
dirtydanglez said:
100% locked. both he and meier according to devils fans a month ago.
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Things have changed over the last month. The Devils are on the verge of exiting the playoffs and Bratt hasn't scored on a goalie yet.

Apologies to Devils' fans for jumping the gun and counting your team out. They can come back but the point about Bratt stands.
 
Americanadian said:
Things have changed over the last month. The Devils are on the verge of exiting the playoffs and Bratt hasn't scored on a goalie yet.
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they are very adamant that both will be kept. personally i think bratt might be moved due to how poorly negotiations have went in the past.
 
dirtydanglez said:
they are very adamant that both will be kept. personally i think bratt might be moved due to how poorly negotiations have went in the past.
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I was wondering that too. I can see a situation where he is moved and a Marner for Mercer deal makes sense. I wonder if there’s a deal with Colorado around Toews that makes sense.
 
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If I'm Toronto I inquire with Philly for Konecny and their first, I'd draft Leonard, Konecny and Leonard give the Leafs two players that might actually eventually help them win more than 4 playoff games a year
 
RRenegade said:
From Jets, KFC + small add like a 3rd or B prospect. That is a big contract to add.
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If I'm trading KC I wouldn't be targeting Marner who has two years left on a huge contract and based on how he handled his last contract talks I would want no part of that and he certainly would bolt to a big market after the two years.
 
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lanceuppercut75 said:
Hmmk okay. So what do the Predators add then? Toronto moves up from #28 in the draft to #15? Maybe Nashville retains 15% or 20% on Duchene? Both?

I like the idea of Duchene replacing Marner now (temporary downgrade) but then also Kemell joining the team in the next 1 or 2 years and both guys playing in the Leafs top 9.

Maybe I'm the only Leafs fan that wouldn't mind Duchene, IDK...

Duchene (15-20% retained)
Kemell
15th overall

for

Marner
28th overall
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Your offer is still garbage. Duchene isn't a need or a want, pick 15 is meh and so is Kemell in a trade for marner. The funniest part is you have the Leafs adding the 28th overall lol.
 
Boondock said:
First lets look at this from strictly a money perspective. Marner currently making $10.9 for 2 more seasons (I know he had bonuses paid at the beginning of the contract, but I will use AAV to make it easier). Once that contract expires Marner will be after an 8 year extension and given his production it will probably have an AAV of around $12 million. So over the next 8 years Marner will collect $21.8 million over the next 2 seasons and approximately $72 million over the first 6 years of his new contract. This adds up to a total of $93.8 million over the next 8 seasons. Over the same period of time Stutzle will make $66.8 million dollars. Thats an additional $27 million dollars over the next 8 years more to Marner than Stutzle.

Secondly lets look at position. 1st pairing RHD and 1st line C are the most difficult positions to find in the NHL. In this scenario the elite winger is not worth as much as the #1 C. Therefore this trade would require the Sens to replace their #1 C when they already have good wingers but no real C depth and for sure not enough C depth to replace a 21 year old #1 C

Prime years - It is understood by most that prime years for an NHLer are 24-29. There are always exceptions to this rule but the vast majority of the time this is the way it works. This would mean that Stutzle still has a few seasons of elite production before he even hits his prime years. The contract he is currently on will have him locked up from 21-29 right through those prime seasons. Marner is already 26, so over the same 8 year span Marner will be getting paid for his 26-34 year old seasons. There is a far greater chance that you will see Marner's production decrease for 3-4 years of that time frame.

Years of control. As of right now the Sens have 8 years of control and cost certainty with Stutzle. Marner's contract expires in 2 seasons. Yes, the Sens could re-sign him but he will be a UFA and Marner will have all the leverage. Trading 8 years of cost certainty for 2 years of control is a loss for the Sens

So given cost, positional premium, top producing years and years of team control - this is a very bad trade idea for the Sens. Even if the Leafs add to Marner, what can they add to compensate for the additional costs, the loss of a #1 C, the potential decrease in productivity and the loss of 6 years of team control and cost certainty? The + added to Marner would need to be significant. I would think it would need to include high draft pick(s) and a top prospect that has potential to replace Stutzle at #1C down the road. So overall I don't see this trade benefitting the Sens in any way.
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You make some good points. I do take exception with the blanket statement of Centres are always more important than wingers. I’m not saying in this particular case you are necessarily wrong but the logic is.

#1) Just playing center doesn’t mean you are good at it. Like a guy like Dvorak when he’s trying to be unloaded. I don’t care that he’s a center when he has been constantly caved in his whole career.

B) Its about control on the ice. There are wingers (such as Marner) who have to ability to tilt the ice and make more impact than the center they play with. Sure, typically the center the guy who controls the puck and makes the distribution to his line mates. When Marner is on the ice that’s him making those decisions.

You pay Marner more (I wouldn’t have paid quite so much as he is) because he’s going to make the stats of the Hymans, Jarnkroks, Kerfoots and Buntings of the world look better Than they deserve.

Its not the responsibility of the center to drive the line 100% of the time.
 
Any team that trades for a guy two years from reaching UFA status is looking to win now. How many teams with a realistic chance of winning now have $10.9 million in available cap space, or could free up that much in such a manner that it won’t make them worse? The only way a trade involving Marner makes sense is if the Leafs are going into a full rebuild and are willing to retain and/or take cap dumps while getting mostly futures in return.

Is it possible that Marner gets traded? Sure. But Leafs fans who think they’re going to retool on the fly by trading Marner for pieces that will help them win now are going to be severely disappointed.
 
TS Quint said:
You make some good points. I do take exception with the blanket statement of Centres are always more important than wingers. I’m not saying in this particular case you are necessarily wrong but the logic is.

#1) Just playing center doesn’t mean you are good at it. Like a guy like Dvorak when he’s trying to be unloaded. I don’t care that he’s a center when he has been constantly caved in his whole career.

B) Its about control on the ice. There are wingers (such as Marner) who have to ability to tilt the ice and make more impact than the center they play with. Sure, typically the center the guy who controls the puck and makes the distribution to his line mates. When Marner is on the ice that’s him making those decisions.

You pay Marner more (I wouldn’t have paid quite so much as he is) because he’s going to make the stats of the Hymans, Jarnkroks, Kerfoots and Buntings of the world look better Than they deserve.

Its not the responsibility of the center to drive the line 100% of the time.
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I agree with you and any statement of opinion will have a counter point. I understand that Marner isn't just another winger. I know that wingers like Marner and Kane have been very successful line drivers. But when you are talking about similar skill levels (Marner vs Stutzle) many times the C will carry more value, and be a more difficult position to replace. You may not get a 100 point winger, but players like DeBrincat (good top line winger) move around more than players like Pettersson (good top line C).

Horvat signed for $8.5 - similar producing wingers get $6.5 - this is the premium that is placed on the C position. League wide I think most GMs would take Matthews over Marner, both fantastic players, but Matthews plays the more "valued" position. Dvorak is a prime example of this. Would Dvorak have got his contract if his only position was wing? Probably not - he got paid for his potential as a Center, 35 point wingers don't typically get longer term deals (6 years) worth over their perceived value ($4.45 AAV).

I do however agree that blanket statements (even my other points in the original post) do not capture all players and all circumstances. I 100% agree with your assessment of line driving wingers and that C is not always the most valued position on a line. Good discussion - thanks!
 
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Marner's not going anywhere unless he asks to be traded, which I can see happening with the way Toronto media and fans treat him.
 
I think a Nashville trade could potentially benefit Toronto if I neglect cap implications here because I don't know how it would impact the cap.

Nashville Offer:

Duchene
Saros

For

Marner
Murray(I guess just to dump his salary?)

What do you think?
 
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