Marner Predictions - What Happens Now

[notDatsyuk]

Marner is the only player amount core with a positive differential by playing the toughest matchup and still be the guy with the higher production last 25 game...but its all marner fault...

Shutdowm top opposite weapon shift after shift without working hard, it's just impossible. You will never shutdown Kucherov, pastrnak by exemple by playing at 90% of energy.

On offensive forecheck yes it was an issue but for me it was an issu for over 85% of leafs player. I would like to see offensive battle won by leafs under keefe, this number should be pretty low.

But its started with the system. #1 weakness of Keefe system is the forechecking so for sure you see it coming into the playoff...

Just in 2 days with Berube, we saw the difference. The 1st thing Berube started with is exactly the forechecking and 1v1 battle. I don't know if they gonna have more succes this season but i guarantee you than everyone will see the difference coming playoff.

Why 25 games? He doesn't have the best +/- (I assume that's what you mean by 'positive differential'), and it has been shown the quality of linemates in much more critical than quality of competition.

I don't think anyone has said that it's all Marner's fault, other than the Marner apologists claiming that unspecified others have.

I don't suppose I should ask why it is that Marner's +/- drops the more he plays away from Matthews, while others improve the more they play with Matty.

 

[notDatsyuk]

MM get all the credit?!?! where? What i see personally is Matthews get every credit for everything positive happening on that line and Marner got all the negative shit coming with...

Even if Matthews played with MM biggest part of the time 3 of last 4 series, he still get a negative differential against opposite top 6

Even if Marner played with Jt or domi line last playoff with an ankle clearly not at 100%, he still had a huge imoact vs marchand / pastrnak line

But yes playing with Matthews help Marner to play at higher level but the reverse is also true. Matthews without Marner defensively was not always sexy.

This from the poster who is always trying to give Marner all the credit, and is doing so in the rest of this post?

 

[Antropovsky]

again boston 1st goal, liljegren 1/2 was on those passing lane and marner had no reason to go on the same passing lan

View attachment 908411

boston 2nd goal, so you try to tell me its marner fault if Benoit lost his 1v1 battle?

View attachment 908412

you really talked and gallagher goal who was probably amount top 3 worst goal allowed in playoff by toronto last 25 year? Its like an awful shot than even a Pee-Wee goalie would be able to stop it.


and you can do the exact thing with every player... Like gm 3 vs bos GWG is all about Matthews .


Nylander just last year vs tampa

Gm 6 stamkos tying goal is all about him

gm 3 2 of 3 goal all about nylander lack of compete/work

gm 4 sergachev goal nylander making figure skating in the defensive end nd get caught out of position.

Its not pretty hard to find key moment where they making mistake.

The funniest thing is when you trying to attribute mistake of other player to marner

Every? No that is you trying to pull a strawman fallacy. There are ALOT though, certainly WAY to many to brag about Marners defensive abilities. Recall, you said "Marner shuts down opposing player top offensive wapons shift after shift." Every game I watch a playoff game,I see yet another goal against caused by Marner. Who apparently is this elite defensive player, and the smartest player in the game, according to Marner fans.

Heres another one by Marner, and a new one for me, because Ive generally only watched the elimination games for lapses that cause goals against. And as I stated numerous times, in elimination games alone there are way too many Marner f ups (6-7).

2023 Tampa series, game 1:
Marner causes the 2nd goal against, Marner with, you guessed it his favorite playoff f-up play....another flip pass. Recall that the flip play by Marner caused two elimination game losses prior to this game, one in Montreal and the other vs Tampa in 2022. Well, he dont care, he does another one in game 1 in 2023 that gets picked off easily and once again a quick counter-attack by Tampa. The interception play catches Tavares and Oreilly by surprise and they are slow to react. Cant blame them either, they worked hard to get possession of the puck and move it to Marner and he literally just lobs it directly back into Tampas hands.

Marner goes for a line change, and by the time Nylander gets on the ice, there is little he can do but take Marners -1.

Let me guess another clear attempt too? Which also fooled the broadcast team who called it "a little alley oop play by Marner." Live and on the replay called it a "flip pass by Marner"? Problem with these cute plays by Marner, is that they really arent close to his teammates and go directly to into opponents hands, and they receive them like perfect passes and counter into attacks quickly.


video:

 

[Arzak]

Yes, I would rather have the near 100 point guys and the near 70 goal scorer than Byfield or Raymond, neither of whom have approached, and likely never will approach, the offensive numbers that Mathews, Marner and Nylander have. Seider should be a good defenseman, but right now he is a 40-50 point guy on a very big contract in its own right. Sometimes the grass isn't always greener.

Marner is never approaching his 99 points without Matthews or prime JT. Marners assists playing with Matthews on 1st line are not the same as Nylanders points playing with Domi.

Also OP talked about Nylander and MM, you included Matthews because Mitch fans would like to pretend Matthews and Marner are in the same tier as players.*


* spoiler alert: They are not

 

[thusk]

Why 25 games? He doesn't have the best +/- (I assume that's what you mean by 'positive differential'), and it has been shown the quality of linemates in much more critical than quality of competition.

I don't think anyone has said that it's all Marner's fault, other than the Marner apologists claiming that unspecified others have.

Why 3 years ? Because where i taking my stats with opposition playing against started 3 years ago so ...

I don't suppose I should ask why it is that Marner's +/- drops the more he plays away from Matthews, while others improve the more they play with Matty.

Last 3 playoff ( again dont have those number before)
Matthews with marner 14 GF-8GA
Matthews without Marner 4 GF-5 GA
marner without matthews 6 GF- 3 GA

 

[hamzarocks]

Bigger, stronger, faster, as good a playmaker, better at carrying the puck and zone entries, and a much better shot.

Better at faceoffs, and there's not as much difference in defence as some people say.

He has also played centre a lot more recently than Marner, and at a lot higher level.

That's not to say Marner may not be good at centre, but I think the likelihood is that Nylander will be better there.

There is also the possibility that this will be Mitch's last season here, while moving Willy to centre may be seen as a long term investment.

Nylander isnt comparable to marner as a playmaker

His vision isnt elite, and he shoots a lot when passes are there

Marner is still the better player and much better passer (-65-70 assist guy usually), even though I agree Nylander has a higher chance of being a C then Marner.

Marner being a center would be better for the leafs as a high-end playmaking center is worth a lot and we dont have that. We could run marner a 70 assist guy with nylander a 45-50 goal guy and have Matthews 1C as a 60G player with Domi getting 50As on that line. With nylander at C its likely a 45-50A center and 30ish goal winger in marner

 

[ACC1224]

Will we hear the first booooo’s tonight ?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Why 3 years ? Because where i taking my stats with opposition playing against started 3 years ago so ...


Last 3 playoff ( again dont have those number before)
Matthews with marner 14 GF-8GA
Matthews without Marner 4 GF-5 GA
marner without matthews 6 GF- 3 GA

I see - not just 25 but your favourite three years of playoffs, as that's the only span that comes close to working for you. Which explains why you say you can't find others, despite the fact they are all in the same place and I've already provided them for you.

And again you didn't even come close to even addressing my question.

I knew it would be a waste of time.

 

[thusk]

I see - not just 25 but your favourite three years of playoffs, as that's the only span that comes close to working for you. Which explains why you say you can't find others, despite the fact they are all in the same place and I've already provided them for you.

And again you didn't even come close to even addressing my question.

I know it would be a waste of time.

category in blue is all the category they had in 2021-2022 season, they don't have it before and i will certainly not doing it manually ...

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander isnt comparable to marner as a playmaker

His vision isnt elite, and he shoots a lot when passes are there

Marner is still the better player and much better passer (-65-70 assist guy usually), even though I agree Nylander has a higher chance of being a C then Marner.

Marner being a center would be better for the leafs as a high-end playmaking center is worth a lot and we dont have that. We could run marner a 70 assist guy with nylander a 45-50 goal guy and have Matthews 1C as a 60G player with Domi getting 50As on that line. With nylander at C its likely a 45-50A center and 30ish goal winger in marner

You don't think the fact that Marner's usual centre scored more than twice as many goals as Nylander's would have any bearing on the fact that he had one more assist this year?

The number of easy setups that JT failed to convert this year is appalling (which may be part of why Willy sometimes shoots instead of passing).

I'm not sure I follow your last paragraph. With Marner at C, he gets 70A and Willy gets 45-50G, and with Willy at C he gets 45-50A and Mitch gets 30G. What about the other half of the stats - how many goals does Willy get playing C with Mitch setting him up, and so on? I don't see a huge overall difference in total goals and assists between them depending on who plays centre.

 

[notDatsyuk]

View attachment 908663

category in blue is all the category they had in 2021-2022 season, they don't have it before and i will certainly not doing it manually ...

So you prefer a site that has partial information, even though I provided more complete?

 

[ACC1224]

It’ll be good to see Marner back playing fully healthy. It’s been a while.

 

[hamzarocks]

You don't think the fact that Marner's usual centre scored more than twice as many goals as Nylander's would have any bearing on the fact that he had one more assist this year?

The number of easy setups that JT failed to convert this year is appalling (which may be part of why Willy sometimes shoots instead of passing).

I'm not sure I follow your last paragraph. With Marner at C, he gets 70A and Willy gets 45-50G, and with Willy at C he gets 45-50A and Mitch gets 30G. What about the other half of the stats - how many goals does Willy get playing C with Mitch setting him up, and so on? I don't see a huge overall difference in total goals and assists between them depending on who plays centre.

Marner was an elite playmaker in 2019 with Tavares (68 assists and drove the line, helping Tavares get a career high 47 goals) and again in 19-20 where he played with Tavares and then Matthews at points and still had a ~71 assist pace (51 in 59 games)

Marner has a proven history of being a 65-70 assist guy, even this year he had 59 in 69 or a 70 assist pace which is 12 better than Nylander, and this was Nylanders best year of his career vs Marner being up and down last year.

Tavares last year did hurt Nylander at points, but he also benefited from playing a good stretch with Matthews where he got a fair amount of assists when Matthews was heating/accelerating.

Nylander has to show he can be a consistent 50 assist player before you can say he is better than a consistent ~70 assist player in Marner.

Nylander really didnt become an elite offensive player who could produce and not just have possession/chances at an elite level until 2022-2023, and before that Tavares was better/equal player to him (2019-2020 - Tavares was better, 2020-2021 - Tavares was better, 2021-2022 - about equal as players). His powerplay impact improved a lot past 2 years with his offensive growth and vision coming together the past 2 seasons.

For the second point;

Nylander as a center is likely a shoot first/goal scoring center who gets 40 goals and 45-50 assists with Marner if he can make a transition to C (tough to say he can but we will see how it unfolds). As a C, nylander would be playing similar to Matthews being a shoot first player and not a dual offensive threat.

The leafs already have an elite goal scoring center and we are missing an elite play making C who can give 70assists and 25-30 goals. Marner is more likely to give that type of production, but he has 0% chance of being a C due to being way to weak for a center.

Nylander has the build and I am more confident he may be able to be a C, however I think we need an elite playmaking 1B center rather than another high-end goal scoring center.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner was an elite playmaker in 2019 with Tavares (68 assists and drove the line, helping Tavares get a career high 47 goals) and again in 19-20 where he played with Tavares and then Matthews at points and still had a ~71 assist pace (51 in 59 games)

Marner has a proven history of being a 65-70 assist guy, even this year he had 59 in 69 or a 70 assist pace which is 12 better than Nylander, and this was Nylanders best year of his career vs Marner being up and down last year.

Tavares last year did hurt Nylander at points, but he also benefited from playing a good stretch with Matthews where he got a fair amount of assists when Matthews was heating/accelerating.

Nylander has to show he can be a consistent 50 assist player before you can say he is better than a consistent ~70 assist player in Marner.

Nylander really didnt become an elite offensive player who could produce and not just have possession/chances at an elite level until 2022-2023, and before that Tavares was better/equal player to him (2019-2020 - Tavares was better, 2020-2021 - Tavares was better, 2021-2022 - about equal as players). His powerplay impact improved a lot past 2 years with his offensive growth and vision coming together the past 2 seasons.

For the second point;

Nylander as a center is likely a shoot first/goal scoring center who gets 40 goals and 45-50 assists with Marner if he can make a transition to C (tough to say he can but we will see how it unfolds). As a C, nylander would be playing similar to Matthews being a shoot first player and not a dual offensive threat.

The leafs already have an elite goal scoring center and we are missing an elite play making C who can give 70assists and 25-30 goals. Marner is more likely to give that type of production, but he has 0% chance of being a C due to being way to weak for a center.

Nylander has the build and I am more confident he may be able to be a C, however I think we need an elite playmaking 1B center rather than another high-end goal scoring center.

I would suggest that a 50.54 assists per 82 games (last three seasons) is about as close to 'consistent ~50' as 70.50 assists per 82 is to ~70. I might point out that Marner averaged over 2 minutes more per game over those three years.

Do you think Willy will not produce as well playing with the elite Marner as he did with the fading Tavares?

I may agree that we could use a elite playmaking centre, but since we don't have one, I think an elite scoring centre is better than nothing.

But you didn't give me your estimates on the other half of the Mitch/Willy stats. I'd still like to see them.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner was an elite playmaker in 2019 with Tavares (68 assists and drove the line, helping Tavares get a career high 47 goals) and again in 19-20 where he played with Tavares and then Matthews at points and still had a ~71 assist pace (51 in 59 games)

Marner has a proven history of being a 65-70 assist guy, even this year he had 59 in 69 or a 70 assist pace which is 12 better than Nylander, and this was Nylanders best year of his career vs Marner being up and down last year.

Tavares last year did hurt Nylander at points, but he also benefited from playing a good stretch with Matthews where he got a fair amount of assists when Matthews was heating/accelerating.

Nylander has to show he can be a consistent 50 assist player before you can say he is better than a consistent ~70 assist player in Marner.

Nylander really didnt become an elite offensive player who could produce and not just have possession/chances at an elite level until 2022-2023, and before that Tavares was better/equal player to him (2019-2020 - Tavares was better, 2020-2021 - Tavares was better, 2021-2022 - about equal as players). His powerplay impact improved a lot past 2 years with his offensive growth and vision coming together the past 2 seasons.

For the second point;

Nylander as a center is likely a shoot first/goal scoring center who gets 40 goals and 45-50 assists with Marner if he can make a transition to C (tough to say he can but we will see how it unfolds). As a C, nylander would be playing similar to Matthews being a shoot first player and not a dual offensive threat.

The leafs already have an elite goal scoring center and we are missing an elite play making C who can give 70assists and 25-30 goals. Marner is more likely to give that type of production, but he has 0% chance of being a C due to being way to weak for a center.

Nylander has the build and I am more confident he may be able to be a C, however I think we need an elite playmaking 1B center rather than another high-end goal scoring center.

How do you know Marner "drove the line"? Did you do a deep dive on every single goal?

This blogger did and came to a different onclusion than you did: Tavares is elite at what he does and his skill set allows him to be either goal scorer or set up guy. He also has a history of raising his linemates point totals. Marner on the other hand, requires a shooter on his line and his less adaptable. He thrived with 28 year old Tavares as a result:

When playing with Marner, however, Tavares adjusted his game to be the shooter since Marner is a terrific playmaker. Marner, as playmaker, needs to have a target to hit in order to produce the most amount of offense. If there is no target to hit, then a goal doesn’t happen. Given Tavares’ ability to get open to receive the passes while in a scoring position, it allows Marner to connect on a lot more of his passes.

And this is likely why we see a lot of people saying Tavares was a product of Marner because of all the tap ins. People see Marner completing passes to Tavares, both regular and spectacular, and come to the conclusion that Marner is doing all of the work.

It is also an easy narrative to believe in because when most people watch a hockey game, they’re following the puck and see Marner to Tavares to the back of the net a lot.

They’re not following Tavares sliding up from the slot to make himself open for a pass. They’re not following Tavares when he’s making sure he has the better body positioning than the defender.

And those little things that Tavares is busy doing makes it easy for Marner to know he’ll have a passing lane to use his passing skills.

Just like it takes two to tango, it takes two to tap in. Tap ins, and passing in general, require two parties: the passer and the receiver. If you don’t have the passer, the receiver is useless. If you don’t have the receiver, the passer is useless.

In order for Mitch Marner to thrive the most, he needs an elite receiver and finisher on his line: someone who can get open, take passes, and convert on his chances.

As a result, Marner’s point totals will scale depending on the quality of receiver he plays with. If it’s a lower-end receiver, he’ll have less points. If it’s John Tavares, who is one of the best in the league at doing what Marner needs in a linemate, Marner will register career highs in points.

On the other hand, Tavares has a unique tool set that allows him to adapt to who he plays with. His ability to get open to receive passes combined with his ability to make plays allows him to play with whoever at a high degree of efficiency and production.

For Tavares, his point totals scale with the quality of linemates he plays with. The better his linemates are, the higher his point totals are. This is why he set career highs last season with Marner, as Marner was the best ever linemate he’s ever played with.

All-in-all, Marner and Tavares are a great pairing because Tavares’ skill set match Marner’s needs in a linemate. They’re fun to watch and they benefit from how great of players they both are.

But, Tavares isn’t a tap in machine that’s a byproduct of Marner’s passing abilities. He’s a key contributor to Marner’s ability to collect so many primary assists because he’s always open and ready to score.

Mystery solved.

 

[francis246]

You'd rather have Willy or Mitch at their $ vs Mo, a #1RD at 8.5M long term whose 6'3 and murders 20 guys per year and is only 23?

And yet Detroit hasn’t come close to winning Jack shit with him there. I understand us not having success is a big thing. But I don’t understand how some of you can with a straight face make an argument for players (who have never sniffed regular season success or playoff success for that matter) to be better than our guys. It makes no sense

 

[A1LeafNation]

Do we think the Leafs can be a contender if Marner walks in July

Knies Matthews Domi
Pacioretty Nylander Cowan
McMann Tavares Grebenkin
Lorentz Kampf Reaves
Dewar

Reilly Tanev
OEL Liljegren
McCabe Hakanpaa
Benoit

Woll
Stolarz

15m to spend.

I think so

 

[rumman]

Do we think the Leafs can be a contender if Marner walks in July

Knies Matthews Domi
Pacioretty Nylander Cowan
McMann Tavares Grebenkin
Lorentz Kampf Reaves
Dewar

Reilly Tanev
OEL Liljegren
McCabe Hakanpaa
Benoit

Woll
Stolarz

15m to spend.

I think so

Absolutely……

 

[hamzarocks]

How do you know Marner "drove the line"? Did you do a deep dive on every single goal?

This blogger did and came to a different onclusion than you did: Tavares is elite at what he does and his skill set allows him to be either goal scorer or set up guy. He also has a history of raising his linemates point totals. Marner on the other hand, requires a shooter on his line and his less adaptable. He thrived with 28 year old Tavares as a result:

If tavares was elite his game wouldnt fall off so badly in his 29 year season

Tavares was never a strong finisher and elite goal scorer before and after that year ( he did have a high end scoring season in 2013 but that was lock-out league)

Marner continues to be a top 5 play making winger in the league and is a guy who creates chances regardless of his linemates. His points are higher sure due to elite teammates, but he is still an elite regular season player if he was playing on a team with a worse goal scoring center than Matthews.

Playoffs Marner disapears and his style doesnt work. He isnt willing to adapt and that is going to stop him from having success

 

[Confucius]

Why 25 games? He doesn't have the best +/- (I assume that's what you mean by 'positive differential'), and it has been shown the quality of linemates in much more critical than quality of competition.

I don't think anyone has said that it's all Marner's fault, other than the Marner apologists claiming that unspecified others have.

I don't suppose I should ask why it is that Marner's +/- drops the more he plays away from Matthews, while others improve the more they play with Matty.

Auston Mathews Career Plus Minus Without Marner | StatMuse

Auston Matthews has a plus/minus of +6 without Mitchell Marner in his career.

www.statmuse.com

Mitch Marner Plus Minus Without Auston Mathews | StatMuse

Mitchell Marner has a plus/minus of +16 without Auston Matthews in his career.

www.statmuse.com

Marner has a plus 16 playing without Mathews
Mathews has a plus 6 playing without marner

 

[hamzarocks]

I would suggest that a 50.54 assists per 82 games (last three seasons) is about as close to 'consistent ~50' as 70.50 assists per 82 is to ~70. I might point out that Marner averaged over 2 minutes more per game over those three years.

Do you think Willy will not produce as well playing with the elite Marner as he did with the fading Tavares?

I may agree that we could use a elite playmaking centre, but since we don't have one, I think an elite scoring centre is better than nothing.

But you didn't give me your estimates on the other half of the Mitch/Willy stats. I'd still like to see them.

Fair points, Nylander is a ~50 assist guy over the last 3 years as a winger and a 85-90 point player. Marner still has a higher period averaging 70A as he has 356 assists his alst 417 games (2018-2019 to 2023-2024), which does show hes a higher end and more conssitent playmaker which is more evident when watching him vs nylander as marner is a pass first player vs Nylander who last 2ish years is a shoot first guy


I dont see his production as a C increasing as he will have less breakout opportunities/breakaways and more defensive focus.

The overall point output for WN &MM wont change much but I mostly want a play making center rather than a goal scoring one behind matthews.

My estimate for Nylander as C

45G and 45A

My estimate as Marner on Nylanders Wing

30G and 70A

In an ideal world if Marner could play center or Nylander was a higher end playmaker

Play making center --> 25G and 75A

Goal scoring winger --> 50G and 40A

A Center whose style is more play making center can probably help the third line on thay option produce and score more often and also help create more chances for the back-end.

Ofcourse the above all relies on assumptions

1) nylander is capable of playing center in the first place which I give a ~15% chance over the course of this year

2) berube plays Marner with Nylander and doesnt force Marner and Matthews again despite Domi looking like a good fit to play as the play making winger with the best goal scoring center (player too) in the league for regular season play

 

[Antropovsky]

If tavares was elite his game wouldnt fall off so badly in his 29 year season

Tavares was never a strong finisher and elite goal scorer before and after that year ( he did have a high end scoring season in 2013 but that was lock-out league)

Marner continues to be a top 5 play making winger in the league and is a guy who creates chances regardless of his linemates. His points are higher sure due to elite teammates, but he is still an elite regular season player if he was playing on a team with a worse goal scoring center than Matthews.

Playoffs Marner disapears and his style doesnt work. He isnt willing to adapt and that is going to stop him from having success

Marner while playing the majority of his mins with a top 2 center was just 10th in the league in even strength points in 2024. Domi produced more even strength points per 60 than Marner, while Domi played a fraction of the amount with Matthews or even Tavares. Marner at even stength had point totals similar to Bratt, Ehlers and Seguin.

Produces points regardless of his linemates? What linemates havent been elite?

 

[hamzarocks]

Regardless of his linemates?

Marner while playing the majority of his mins with a top 2 center was just 10th in the league in even strength points in 2024. Domi produced more even strength points per 60 than Marner, while Domi played a fraction of the amount with Matthews or even Tavares. Marner at even stength had point totals similar to Bratt, Ehlers and Seguin.

Produces points regardless of his linemates? What linemates havent been elite?

He produced with Tavares last year as well, who is a low end 2C or 3C at this point. Nylander played a good 15-20 games with Matthews and Domi also played with Matthews at times. So marner did have fairly good production playing outside of Matthews (3rd best Center and 5th best regular season player in the league last year)

He also has history of playing with Kadri in 2018 and being quite good

Last year was a down year for play drivinf and offensive even strength production for marner but he has been pretty consistent in his even strength production from 2018-2019 and does get high PK usage (likely to detriment of his own play and team as we dont need or want Marner playing so much on our PK)

I think in 2022/2023 he also produced well with Tavares and RoR when they played together as I recall Nylander and Matthews playing together at points that year

 

[thusk]

Marner is never approaching his 99 points without Matthews or prime JT. Marners assists playing with Matthews on 1st line are not the same as Nylanders points playing with Domi.

Also OP talked about Nylander and MM, you included Matthews because Mitch fans would like to pretend Matthews and Marner are in the same tier as players.*


* spoiler alert: They are not

that's why he got 94 pts ( 70 of his 94 AT ES) the season he signed his actual contract when he was playing with john tavares under Babcock? It's certainly because he can't doing it...