Marner Predictions - What Happens Now

[notDatsyuk]

Marner is the only player amount core with a positive differential by playing the toughest matchup and still be the guy with the higher production last 25 game...but its all marner fault...

Shutdowm top opposite weapon shift after shift without working hard, it's just impossible. You will never shutdown Kucherov, pastrnak by exemple by playing at 90% of energy.

On offensive forecheck yes it was an issue but for me it was an issu for over 85% of leafs player. I would like to see offensive battle won by leafs under keefe, this number should be pretty low.

But its started with the system. #1 weakness of Keefe system is the forechecking so for sure you see it coming into the playoff...

Just in 2 days with Berube, we saw the difference. The 1st thing Berube started with is exactly the forechecking and 1v1 battle. I don't know if they gonna have more succes this season but i guarantee you than everyone will see the difference coming playoff.

Why 25 games? He doesn't have the best +/- (I assume that's what you mean by 'positive differential'), and it has been shown the quality of linemates in much more critical than quality of competition.

I don't think anyone has said that it's all Marner's fault, other than the Marner apologists claiming that unspecified others have.

I don't suppose I should ask why it is that Marner's +/- drops the more he plays away from Matthews, while others improve the more they play with Matty.

 

[notDatsyuk]

MM get all the credit?!?! where? What i see personally is Matthews get every credit for everything positive happening on that line and Marner got all the negative shit coming with...

Even if Matthews played with MM biggest part of the time 3 of last 4 series, he still get a negative differential against opposite top 6

Even if Marner played with Jt or domi line last playoff with an ankle clearly not at 100%, he still had a huge imoact vs marchand / pastrnak line

But yes playing with Matthews help Marner to play at higher level but the reverse is also true. Matthews without Marner defensively was not always sexy.

This from the poster who is always trying to give Marner all the credit, and is doing so in the rest of this post?

 

[Antropovsky]

again boston 1st goal, liljegren 1/2 was on those passing lane and marner had no reason to go on the same passing lan

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boston 2nd goal, so you try to tell me its marner fault if Benoit lost his 1v1 battle?

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you really talked and gallagher goal who was probably amount top 3 worst goal allowed in playoff by toronto last 25 year? Its like an awful shot than even a Pee-Wee goalie would be able to stop it.


and you can do the exact thing with every player... Like gm 3 vs bos GWG is all about Matthews .


Nylander just last year vs tampa

Gm 6 stamkos tying goal is all about him

gm 3 2 of 3 goal all about nylander lack of compete/work

gm 4 sergachev goal nylander making figure skating in the defensive end nd get caught out of position.

Its not pretty hard to find key moment where they making mistake.

The funniest thing is when you trying to attribute mistake of other player to marner

Every? No that is you trying to pull a strawman fallacy. There are ALOT though, certainly WAY to many to brag about Marners defensive abilities. Recall, you said "Marner shuts down opposing player top offensive wapons shift after shift." Every game I watch a playoff game,I see yet another goal against caused by Marner. Who apparently is this elite defensive player, and the smartest player in the game, according to Marner fans.

Heres another one by Marner, and a new one for me, because Ive generally only watched the elimination games for lapses that cause goals against. And as I stated numerous times, in elimination games alone there are way too many Marner f ups (6-7).

2023 Tampa series, game 1:
Marner causes the 2nd goal against, Marner with, you guessed it his favorite playoff f-up play....another flip pass. Recall that the flip play by Marner caused two elimination game losses prior to this game, one in Montreal and the other vs Tampa in 2022. Well, he dont care, he does another one in game 1 in 2023 that gets picked off easily and once again a quick counter-attack by Tampa. The interception play catches Tavares and Oreilly by surprise and they are slow to react. Cant blame them either, they worked hard to get possession of the puck and move it to Marner and he literally just lobs it directly back into Tampas hands.

Marner goes for a line change, and by the time Nylander gets on the ice, there is little he can do but take Marners -1.

Let me guess another clear attempt too? Which also fooled the broadcast team who called it "a little alley oop play by Marner." Live and on the replay called it a "flip pass by Marner"? Problem with these cute plays by Marner, is that they really arent close to his teammates and go directly to into opponents hands, and they receive them like perfect passes and counter into attacks quickly.


video:

 

[Arzak]

Yes, I would rather have the near 100 point guys and the near 70 goal scorer than Byfield or Raymond, neither of whom have approached, and likely never will approach, the offensive numbers that Mathews, Marner and Nylander have. Seider should be a good defenseman, but right now he is a 40-50 point guy on a very big contract in its own right. Sometimes the grass isn't always greener.

Marner is never approaching his 99 points without Matthews or prime JT. Marners assists playing with Matthews on 1st line are not the same as Nylanders points playing with Domi.

Also OP talked about Nylander and MM, you included Matthews because Mitch fans would like to pretend Matthews and Marner are in the same tier as players.*


* spoiler alert: They are not

 

[thusk]

Why 25 games? He doesn't have the best +/- (I assume that's what you mean by 'positive differential'), and it has been shown the quality of linemates in much more critical than quality of competition.

I don't think anyone has said that it's all Marner's fault, other than the Marner apologists claiming that unspecified others have.

Why 3 years ? Because where i taking my stats with opposition playing against started 3 years ago so ...

I don't suppose I should ask why it is that Marner's +/- drops the more he plays away from Matthews, while others improve the more they play with Matty.

Last 3 playoff ( again dont have those number before)
Matthews with marner 14 GF-8GA
Matthews without Marner 4 GF-5 GA
marner without matthews 6 GF- 3 GA

 

[hamzarocks]

Bigger, stronger, faster, as good a playmaker, better at carrying the puck and zone entries, and a much better shot.

Better at faceoffs, and there's not as much difference in defence as some people say.

He has also played centre a lot more recently than Marner, and at a lot higher level.

That's not to say Marner may not be good at centre, but I think the likelihood is that Nylander will be better there.

There is also the possibility that this will be Mitch's last season here, while moving Willy to centre may be seen as a long term investment.

Nylander isnt comparable to marner as a playmaker

His vision isnt elite, and he shoots a lot when passes are there

Marner is still the better player and much better passer (-65-70 assist guy usually), even though I agree Nylander has a higher chance of being a C then Marner.

Marner being a center would be better for the leafs as a high-end playmaking center is worth a lot and we dont have that. We could run marner a 70 assist guy with nylander a 45-50 goal guy and have Matthews 1C as a 60G player with Domi getting 50As on that line. With nylander at C its likely a 45-50A center and 30ish goal winger in marner

 

[ACC1224]

Will we hear the first booooo’s tonight ?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Why 3 years ? Because where i taking my stats with opposition playing against started 3 years ago so ...


Last 3 playoff ( again dont have those number before)
Matthews with marner 14 GF-8GA
Matthews without Marner 4 GF-5 GA
marner without matthews 6 GF- 3 GA

I see - not just 25 but your favourite three years of playoffs, as that's the only span that comes close to working for you. Which explains why you say you can't find others, despite the fact they are all in the same place and I've already provided them for you.

And again you didn't even come close to even addressing my question.

I knew it would be a waste of time.

 

[thusk]

I see - not just 25 but your favourite three years of playoffs, as that's the only span that comes close to working for you. Which explains why you say you can't find others, despite the fact they are all in the same place and I've already provided them for you.

And again you didn't even come close to even addressing my question.

I know it would be a waste of time.

category in blue is all the category they had in 2021-2022 season, they don't have it before and i will certainly not doing it manually ...

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nylander isnt comparable to marner as a playmaker

His vision isnt elite, and he shoots a lot when passes are there

Marner is still the better player and much better passer (-65-70 assist guy usually), even though I agree Nylander has a higher chance of being a C then Marner.

Marner being a center would be better for the leafs as a high-end playmaking center is worth a lot and we dont have that. We could run marner a 70 assist guy with nylander a 45-50 goal guy and have Matthews 1C as a 60G player with Domi getting 50As on that line. With nylander at C its likely a 45-50A center and 30ish goal winger in marner

You don't think the fact that Marner's usual centre scored more than twice as many goals as Nylander's would have any bearing on the fact that he had one more assist this year?

The number of easy setups that JT failed to convert this year is appalling (which may be part of why Willy sometimes shoots instead of passing).

I'm not sure I follow your last paragraph. With Marner at C, he gets 70A and Willy gets 45-50G, and with Willy at C he gets 45-50A and Mitch gets 30G. What about the other half of the stats - how many goals does Willy get playing C with Mitch setting him up, and so on? I don't see a huge overall difference in total goals and assists between them depending on who plays centre.

 

[notDatsyuk]

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category in blue is all the category they had in 2021-2022 season, they don't have it before and i will certainly not doing it manually ...

So you prefer a site that has partial information, even though I provided more complete?

 

[ACC1224]

It’ll be good to see Marner back playing fully healthy. It’s been a while.

 

[hamzarocks]

You don't think the fact that Marner's usual centre scored more than twice as many goals as Nylander's would have any bearing on the fact that he had one more assist this year?

The number of easy setups that JT failed to convert this year is appalling (which may be part of why Willy sometimes shoots instead of passing).

I'm not sure I follow your last paragraph. With Marner at C, he gets 70A and Willy gets 45-50G, and with Willy at C he gets 45-50A and Mitch gets 30G. What about the other half of the stats - how many goals does Willy get playing C with Mitch setting him up, and so on? I don't see a huge overall difference in total goals and assists between them depending on who plays centre.

Marner was an elite playmaker in 2019 with Tavares (68 assists and drove the line, helping Tavares get a career high 47 goals) and again in 19-20 where he played with Tavares and then Matthews at points and still had a ~71 assist pace (51 in 59 games)

Marner has a proven history of being a 65-70 assist guy, even this year he had 59 in 69 or a 70 assist pace which is 12 better than Nylander, and this was Nylanders best year of his career vs Marner being up and down last year.

Tavares last year did hurt Nylander at points, but he also benefited from playing a good stretch with Matthews where he got a fair amount of assists when Matthews was heating/accelerating.

Nylander has to show he can be a consistent 50 assist player before you can say he is better than a consistent ~70 assist player in Marner.

Nylander really didnt become an elite offensive player who could produce and not just have possession/chances at an elite level until 2022-2023, and before that Tavares was better/equal player to him (2019-2020 - Tavares was better, 2020-2021 - Tavares was better, 2021-2022 - about equal as players). His powerplay impact improved a lot past 2 years with his offensive growth and vision coming together the past 2 seasons.

For the second point;

Nylander as a center is likely a shoot first/goal scoring center who gets 40 goals and 45-50 assists with Marner if he can make a transition to C (tough to say he can but we will see how it unfolds). As a C, nylander would be playing similar to Matthews being a shoot first player and not a dual offensive threat.

The leafs already have an elite goal scoring center and we are missing an elite play making C who can give 70assists and 25-30 goals. Marner is more likely to give that type of production, but he has 0% chance of being a C due to being way to weak for a center.

Nylander has the build and I am more confident he may be able to be a C, however I think we need an elite playmaking 1B center rather than another high-end goal scoring center.

 

[HolyCrap]

So you prefer a site that has partial information, even though I provided more complete?

You’re wasting your time. Marnertards lack common sense. It’s like trying to carry an educated conversation with a flat earther.