Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVIII (continued)

[Notsince67]

"Not in Hall of Fame quite yet"
"May Change the way the game is played"

I'm not diminishing Marner, but come on he isn't McDavid.

I didn't say McDavid.
You are going out of your way to twist things.

 

[Nooodles]

This is perhaps likely what will be the outcome once Marner signs based on his asking price.

Highest AAV Forwards.

1). McDavid @ $12.5 mil X 8
2). Panarin @ $11.642 mil X 7
3). Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5
4) Tavares @ $11.0 mil X 7
5) ~ Marner @ 10.5 mil X 6
6) Kane @ $10.5 mil X 8
6) Toews @ $10.5 mil X 8
8) Kopitar @ $10 mil X 8
8) Eichel @ 10 mil X 8

Based on shortest term & highest AAV our Leafs might have 3 of the top 5 highest AAV forwards in the NHL potentially worst case scenario and 3 in the top 10 best case scenario, if Marner took the Eichel/Kopitar deals on 8 year term.

** With all other teams getting max allowable term to hit those $$$ figures.

Maybe, just maybe, this is because we have three amazing players and a great team in general, which no longer has Grabovskis, Hagmans, Pohls and Johnny Mitchells?

Crazy, right?

 

[BertCorbeau]

This is perhaps likely what will be the outcome once Marner signs based on his asking price.

Highest AAV Forwards.

1). McDavid @ $12.5 mil X 8
2). Panarin @ $11.642 mil X 7
3). Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5
4) Tavares @ $11.0 mil X 7
5) ~ Marner @ 10.5 mil X 6
6) Kane @ $10.5 mil X 8
6) Toews @ $10.5 mil X 8
8) Kopitar @ $10 mil X 8
8) Eichel @ 10 mil X 8

Based on shortest term & highest AAV our Leafs might have 3 of the top 5 highest AAV forwards in the NHL potentially worst case scenario and 3 in the top 10 best case scenario, if Marner took the Eichel/Kopitar deals on 8 year term.

** With all other teams getting max allowable term to hit those $$$ figures.

Might wanna see what Point, Rantanen, Laine, and Tkachuk sign for there Mess before making these posts.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I didn't say McDavid.
You are going out of your way to twist things.

I posted what you said.

You are already talking about this guy being in the Hall of Fame, and stating he may change the way the game is played. Your being way too over the top.

 

[Dayjobdave]

This is perhaps likely what will be the outcome once Marner signs based on his asking price.

Highest AAV Forwards.

1). McDavid @ $12.5 mil X 8
2). Panarin @ $11.642 mil X 7
3). Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5
4) Tavares @ $11.0 mil X 7
5) ~ Marner @ 10.5 mil X 6
6) Kane @ $10.5 mil X 8
6) Toews @ $10.5 mil X 8
8) Kopitar @ $10 mil X 8
8) Eichel @ 10 mil X 8

Based on shortest term & highest AAV our Leafs might have 3 of the top 5 highest AAV forwards in the NHL potentially worst case scenario and 3 in the top 10 best case scenario, if Marner took the Eichel/Kopitar deals on 8 year term.

** With all other teams getting max allowable term to hit those $$$ figures.

I have no idea if the Leafs can actually build a winning team with 3 of the top 5 AAV forwards in the league on the team, but I have to admit it's at least fun that they will try.

I would prefer the players signed for less so we could have more of them, and I'm not convinced we wouldn't be better off trading one of the three away and using the cap space to keep our D core, but gosh this is better than wondering if Kyle Wellwood or Matt Stajan can be a number 2 center....

 

[Notsince67]

If Marner could get some more PP time - I'd put him in that 5-10 range of league scoring.

It's kind of hard doing a direct comparison with Kane. After Chicago's 1st cup, they assigned Kane the role of driving the 2nd line with very sub-par players for the most part. He wasn't playing with no John Tavares. Many years later when he got a talented guy he could finally click with (Panarin) he lit the league on fire (his 106 point season is one of the best seasons post lockout when adjusted for league scoring).

Whether or not Marner can replicate his 94 point season I'm 50/50 on. I hope he can.

Hey...I'm not trying to put you in a spot. I am genuinely curious. Everyone gets caught up on Marner not being worth this or that.
That's fine but I asked someone else what would be an acceptable performance if he got 10.5MM x 6 and the response was that he needed 120 points or something like that which is quite ridiculous.
There hasn't been a clear discussion here of what the expectations next year would be at the various price points.
Kane is great even though he suffered some injuries. He was a point a game his first RFA year. Even if he played the full season, he wouldn't have finished more than 9th in point leaders and this is with a team that won the cup the year before.
Within a margin of error and all the intangibles that go with points, I would say that 5-10 is pretty well just as good in my mind.
If he cracks top 5, it might even be considered to be enough proof that he is better, no?

 

[IPS]

I for one, am glad to be waiting for the next update from Paul Marner at a barbecue

Might wanna see what Point, Rantanen, Laine, and Tkachuk sign for there Mess before making these posts.

Never stopped him before why would it stop him now

 

[Notsince67]

I posted what you said.

You are already talking about this guy being in the Hall of Fame, and stating he may change the way the game is played. Your being way too over the top.

Your last line is just a very stupid thing to write.

I said not quite hall of fame and you jump down my throat claiming he is headed to the hall of fame?
His style is different after posting a primary point total higher than anyone else in over a decade. He helped lift one of the best centers in the league goal scoring 33% 5x5 from 18 goals to 33 goals.
Id say his style deserves study, just as Bruce Cassidy claims he had to do when playing against him.
I think you are over the top.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This is perhaps likely what will be the outcome once Marner signs based on his asking price.

So in other words, you made up a convenient number to your narrative.

Highest AAV Forwards.

1). McDavid @ $12.5 mil X 8
2). Panarin @ $11.642 mil X 7
3). Matthews @ $11.634 mil X 5
4) Tavares @ $11.0 mil X 7
5) ~ Marner @ 10.5 mil X 6
6) Kane @ $10.5 mil X 8
6) Toews @ $10.5 mil X 8
8) Kopitar @ $10 mil X 8
8) Eichel @ 10 mil X 8

Notice how the only other one to sign this year is higher up on the list?

 

[Heisen]

So in other words, you made up a convenient number to your narrative.


Notice how the only other one to sign this year is higher up on the list?

Aho is of this class and didn’t make this list.

 

[ULF_55]

I have no idea if the Leafs can actually build a winning team with 3 of the top 5 AAV forwards in the league on the team, but I have to admit it's at least fun that they will try.

I would prefer the players signed for less so we could have more of them, and I'm not convinced we wouldn't be better off trading one of the three away and using the cap space to keep our D core, but gosh this is better than wondering if Kyle Wellwood or Matt Stajan can be a number 2 center....

It should be entertaining, even if they are losers.

Perhaps they have to trade for someone who knows how to win to support the pretty boys?

 

[18leafsfan18]

I said not quite hall of fame and you jump down my throat claiming he is headed to the hall of fame?
His style is different after posting a primary point total higher than anyone else in over a decade. He helped lift one of the best centers in the league goal scoring 33% 5x5 from 18 goals to 33 goals.
Id say his style deserves study, just as Bruce Cassidy claims he had to do when playing against him.
I think you are over the top.

I quoted your exact words... How am I jumping down your throat.

Simply think you are overrating this guy a ton. He is an amazing player, but he is not the best in the game. Who else could you make those claims for ?

Great job nitpicking stats though, because Marner's production didn't increase at all with Tavares as his C.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Aho is of this class and didn’t make this list.

I mean, he's not that far down, and he's 5 years, but no, Aho is not of that class. He is an RFA, his production is lower than most on the list, and he doesn't have the same proven consistency.

 

[Joey Hoser]

I have no idea if the Leafs can actually build a winning team with 3 of the top 5 AAV forwards in the league on the team, but I have to admit it's at least fun that they will try.

I would prefer the players signed for less so we could have more of them, and I'm not convinced we wouldn't be better off trading one of the three away and using the cap space to keep our D core, but gosh this is better than wondering if Kyle Wellwood or Matt Stajan can be a number 2 center....

So many people forgetting, that the root of our "problems" is having so many valuable, high-end players. As if everything is ruined because we can't fit all this steak and lobster on our plate.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Maybe, just maybe, this is because we have three amazing players and a great team in general, which no longer has Grabovskis, Hagmans, Pohls and Johnny Mitchells?

Crazy, right?

The big story there is that the leaf player's aav's alone already look a little high, but it's the TERM that is being highlighted. Dubas is getting a joke of a term compared to other plaeyrs of the same caliber. Matthews (and soon to be Marner) are the only 2 of the top 10 aav's that didn't get max term.

It's a joke.

 

[DarkKnight]

He aint Gretzky but he is a very interesting talent who brings a very unique talent that we have rarely seen. There is no guarantee that he is in the hall of fame quite yet but his style is so interesting, he might even change the way the game is played in time.
His style is so deceptive right now, I shudder to think what happens if he takes more opportunities to score.
He is already almost as entertaining as Datsyuk but he is still young and has time to improve.

Agreed, you don’t want to exaggerate...he’s also the most interesting Leaf to watch since Moligny imo. I still think the kid has room to grow, which is scary.

 

[Notsince67]

I quoted your exact words... How am I jumping down your throat.

Simply think you are overrating this guy a ton. He is an amazing player, but he is not the best in the game. Who else could you make those claims for ?

Great job nitpicking stats though, because Marner's production didn't increase at all with Tavares as his C.

His point scoring rate didn't move. He was over 90 points for 82 consecutive regular season games as of December.
Nice attempt to distract.

 

[Clark4Ever]

So in other words, you made up a convenient number to your narrative.


Notice how the only other one to sign this year is higher up on the list?

True, but Panarin was a UFA with a longer track record, and he was willing to sign for the maximum term.

 

[Mess]

Might wanna see what Point, Rantanen, Laine, and Tkachuk sign for there Mess before making these posts.

I'm fairly comfortable predicting that Marner will have the highest AAV of all of them, unless his contract is a bridge deal <= 3 years.

Marner is using Matthews his teammate as his comparable, and I highly doubt any of those others are, but rather will fit within their own internal team salary cap structures and depth charts, when their $$ come in. IMO

Toronto just pays more for their players than other organizations. I'm expecting Marner to have a double digit AAV on a term of 6 or more years, which would land him in the top 10 highest.

I'd be tickled pink if Dubas could get Marner on the Drasisaitl deal [$8.5 mil X 8], but the realist in me just doesn't allow me to believe that will be the outcome.

 

[Notsince67]

Agreed, you don’t want to exaggerate...he’s also the most interesting Leaf to watch since Moligny imo. I still think the kid has room to grow, which is scary.

I got accused of just that from that post. You really need to twist yourself like a pretzel sometimes to satiate your mood to talk shit I guess

 

[Nooodles]

The big story there is that the leaf player's aav's alone already look a little high, but it's the TERM that is being highlighted. Dubas is getting a joke of a term compared to other plaeyrs of the same caliber. Matthews (and soon to be Marner) are the only 2 of the top 10 aav's that didn't get max term.

It's a joke.

It's because they are good and all of them have (or will have) basically the most recent contracts being signed in the league. 3 years from now you will see players above them in the list and you will probably also think they are not as good as our guys. It's just the way the league operates.

 

[Dekes For Days]

True, but Panarin was a UFA with a longer track record, and he was willing to sign for the maximum term.

He's also a small playmaking winger and a worse player than many below him on that list.

Main point is comparing contracts like this is ridiculous.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It's because they are good and all of them have (or will have) basically the most recent contracts being signed in the league. 3 years from now you will see players above them in the list and you will probably also think they are not as good as our guys. It's just the way the league operates.

Every player on that list is "good".
Some of those contracts start NEXT season. (Panarin, Kucherov). EVERY player on that list signed for max term except Matthews and (soon to be) Marner.

The HUGE aav of those other players is supposed to be a tradeoff for the max term they signed. Dubas doubled down on the huge aav, but without the max term that supposed to go along with it.

What a complete and total freaking joke.

 

[Notsince67]

True, but Panarin was a UFA with a longer track record, and he was willing to sign for the maximum term.

UFA deals at maximum term are typically cheaper than shorter term

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

There will come a time were they will not be able to afford him, if the holdout extends into the season like Nylander.

Because of the the first year front loaded CBA cap penalty Marner signing late for $9 mil would be like a $12-13 mil cap hit in year #1. Nylander's $7.5 mil contract resulted in a $10.27 mil 1st year cap hit for the Leafs.

Sounds like Dubas has some nice leverage there.