Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - The AHL is up and prospects are in play

[stickty111]

Holmberg with a goal and assist today for Vaxjo as they sweep their series. He had 2 goals and 3 assists in the series.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Noting, Middleton just played a game for the Avalanche. Not that I think he'll turn into much, but he has played in the NHL now. Korshkov, I think turns into a player.. maybe not great, but still a player.

Ya of course, and to be devil's advocate to myself. We have drafted high skilled players who have failed in the same capacity. That said, in the Pre-KD era we were essentially reluctant to draft anyone under 5'10. Whereas now, we are drafting undersized players where their most redeeming quality is skill, and hoping that they can learn to play against bigger competition. Guys like Miettenen, Koster, Robertson or Ovchininikov for example would not have been drafted under other management groups IMO. They followed very strict guidelines on what they viewed was a player in later rounds. Mutants or CHL kids with lower skill and high compete levels. How many McGregors, O'connell's, and Walker's did we need to draft between rounds 4-7 before we realized we can get the same caliber compete level from undrafted players like Tyler Guadet, Duszak, McKenna etc.. complete waste of picks. None of those players had anything other than a motor when they were drafted. At least a guy like Miettenen has a pro shot, Ovchinnikov has pro wheels. Way more to work with than a guy who just competes hard in the CHL, or a guy who is 6'05+....We aren't wasting our late rounders anymore IMO

 

[Bloomberg]

Rasanen was never going to make it no matter which path he chose imo

His 4-way mobility was never going to allow him to be successful

Not making it and not making it because he never got the chance to develop in the AHL is different though. If we developed him in the AHL and he's still terrible, then fine. But Rasanen has played for 4 different clubs in the last two years (Jokerit, Kiekko-Vantaa, Frederikshavn, HPK). I'm not sure how much ice-time he got with those teams...

 

[Twine Tickler]

Not making it and not making it because he never got the chance to develop in the AHL is different though. If we developed him in the AHL and he's still terrible, then fine. But Rasanen has played for 4 different clubs in the last two years (Jokerit, Kiekko-Vantaa, Frederikshavn, HPK). I'm not sure how much ice-time he got with those teams...

without knowing all the details, I can only assume he has bounced around from team to team in Europe because he is not very good. Of course him playing with the Marlies would have been better for his development, but I still think he was 99cents short of a loonie.

Again, I really did like this pick when it was made. Can't hit on them all. But I will say all of the Biggs, Rasanen, and Gauthier type players who were drafted with their size being a huge factor in their draft position all have turned out to be horrible picks. At the end of the day, its not like the surrounding players that were drafted around the same time as Rasanen have panned out to anything. So it is likely that we would have another bust in that region of the 2017 draft. But to think that our 2nd rounder from 4 drafts ago isn't likely on anyone's top 25 leaf prospects is a complete miss

 

[Knies iT]

Not making it and not making it because he never got the chance to develop in the AHL is different though. If we developed him in the AHL and he's still terrible, then fine. But Rasanen has played for 4 different clubs in the last two years (Jokerit, Kiekko-Vantaa, Frederikshavn, HPK). I'm not sure how much ice-time he got with those teams...

Started this season in Liiga with 2nd pair usage before his poor play forced them to use him as a 6-7th D averaging 11-12 min/game. Played only half of their games.

When I watched Rasanen pre-draft in the CHL prospects game, I didn't even know who he was, but immediately had him as DND because of his skating. I have the same feeling with Brazeau. There's just way too much improvements needed to be made in that area for them to even be utility players in a low-level pro league.

The "idea" of a 6'7" shutdown RHD makes people romanticize his potential, but you can't teach IQ and his skating made only marginal improvements despite having an entire COVID shutdown period for training and numerous seasons where he barely played games and spent most of the season practicing.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I will just say that i don't think anything would have kept Rasanen from the NHL except his IQ. His skating still needs work but with a year or two in the AHL, he would probably be good enough for the NHL. He just has no concept about how to defend and he does not have an exceptional skill set to make up for it.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Man what a disaster 2 drafts by Hunter. 0 points in 26 games. I get offense isn't his game but how do you not get even a lucky assist?

By never touching the puck.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Noting, Middleton just played a game for the Avalanche. Not that I think he'll turn into much, but he has played in the NHL now. Korshkov, I think turns into a player.. maybe not great, but still a player.

I always felt that Middleton could make it as a 3rd pair shutdown guy like McQuaid. Good for him.

 

[Leafs1991]

I haven't liked the hire since day 1 tbh

What exactly did you know about Moore on day 1 that you wouldn't like? What did you know about him?

It obviously hasn't turned out to be good at all but I knew nothing about him when he was hired.

 

[Leafs1991]

Not making it and not making it because he never got the chance to develop in the AHL is different though. If we developed him in the AHL and he's still terrible, then fine. But Rasanen has played for 4 different clubs in the last two years (Jokerit, Kiekko-Vantaa, Frederikshavn, HPK). I'm not sure how much ice-time he got with those teams...

I could see this argument working if this happened with one club. But 4 different clubs show he isn't very good.

 

[stickty111]

Holmberg with a goal and assist today for Vaxjo as they sweep their series. He had 2 goals and 3 assists in the series.

Holmberg assisted on the series winner too. So 2 goals and 4 assists

 

[aingefan]

Holmberg assisted on the series winner too. So 2 goals and 4 assists

Guy seems to be blossoming since about the second half.
Could be a great story.

 

[TootooTrain]

Maksim Zhukov putting together a fantastic season. Granted its Czech2, but a regular season 7gp 1.84gaa .931sv% and a postseason 10gp 1.98gaa .929sv% is nice to look at on a piece of paper. I've tried to dig some information on this guy but google has let me dowa aside from the trade to the leafs. Anyone here have context?

 

[Stephen]

It is kind of funny how people are critical of Dubas for only drafting "smurfs". Yet we draft an ogre, a player that most were pleased with the selection at the time, and has done nothing since draft day but depreciate lol. Don't hear many people complaining about Miettenen, Ovchinikov, Abruzesse, Niemela, Koster, and Robertson's developments. All under 6 feet and killing it. I'll take Dubas' approach any day of the week.

Draft skill, acquire size and toughness.

For the record I did like the Rasanen pick at the time. This isn't a slam bit on the previous managment for drafting him. But more of a kudos to KD and Co for shifting drafting philosophies

I'm not sure guys like Miettenen, Ovchinikov, Abruzesse, Niemela, Koster, (and even Robertson) should be taken as proof of concept that skill wins above everything yet.

It's very early days in their development and none of them have even put together the kind of season Jeremy Bracco did in 2018-19 when he was PPG+ and looked poised to steal an NHL job.

Guys like Rasanen, Gordeev, Korshkov also suck and are a good example of size not necessarily meaning too much.

But let's split the difference and say Toronto should do well to look for well rounded athletes in general with a bit of size and a bit of skill. Over the past decade the better mid round and later picks that did pan out were guys like Leivo, Verhaeghe, Engvall, Johnsson and Brown, none of whom would be considered to be very small.

 

[uncleben]

Maksim Zhukov putting together a fantastic season. Granted its Czech2, but a regular season 7gp 1.84gaa .931sv% and a postseason 10gp 1.98gaa .929sv% is nice to look at on a piece of paper. I've tried to dig some information on this guy but google has let me dowa aside from the trade to the leafs. Anyone here have context?

No trade to the Leafs
He was drafted by VGK, but not signed, and instead signed an AHL deal with the Marlies last year, but was loaned and ended up playing entirely with the Growlers as 1A/B.

Went back to Europe this year, presumably because of the pandemic, not knowing what was happening with the ECHL/AHL.

He's one of the guys who left for Europe as a FA that I secretly hope comeback to the organization (Max Veronneau is the other one who went to Europe for job security that I want to see with the Marlies), but no contractual obligation to and no way of knowing if either party is considering it.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

No trade to the Leafs
He was drafted by VGK, but not signed, and instead signed an AHL deal with the Marlies last year, but was loaned and ended up playing entirely with the Growlers as 1A/B.

Went back to Europe this year, presumably because of the pandemic, not knowing what was happening with the ECHL/AHL.

He's one of the guys who left for Europe as a FA that I secretly hope comeback to the organization (Max Veronneau is the other one who went to Europe for job security that I want to see with the Marlies), but no contractual obligation to and no way of knowing if either party is considering it.

His rights still belong to the Growlers and he still has a connection to the organization. The Marlies told him to go back over there.

Verroneau is done in NA. He is not good and he is old. He can make a career in Europe but he is turning 26 this year and wasn't full time AHL quality.

Zhukov could split with Scott in the ECHL next year.

 

[Twine Tickler]

 

[Twine Tickler]

I'm not sure guys like Miettenen, Ovchinikov, Abruzesse, Niemela, Koster, (and even Robertson) should be taken as proof of concept that skill wins above everything yet.

It's very early days in their development and none of them have even put together the kind of season Jeremy Bracco did in 2018-19 when he was PPG+ and looked poised to steal an NHL job.

Ya that is totally fair. Jeremy Bracco is the poster boy of soft skill that did not work. He was a Dubas type player drafted by a different management group that for one reason or another just could not crack an NHL lineup. In fairness to Jeremy, he hasn't been given a red carpet rollout to crack makeable lineups. By the time he established himself as an AHL superstar we already had our top 6 well established. He is not an adaptable player in that regard. He then was let go to another deep roster in the hurricanes. It might be a bit of a long shot for him to make an NHL roster at this point in his career, and who knows how interested he is in grinding his way through the A for peanuts at the off chance of making the show. He seems to be producing well in Finland, so you never know.

As for the prospects I listed (Miettenen, Ovchinikov, Abrusezze, Niemela, Koster, Robertson) they have all tracked beyond their draft positions almost instantly. ANd to some degree so did Bracco at one point. Whereas prospects like; Gordeev, Biggs, Rasanen, Middleton, Matenen, and Greenway have almost all but negatively regressed since the day they were drafted. Wherein they held little to no trade value even a year after they were drafted. I think Bracco was mismanaged by our management group (Lou and KD combined). Realistically we probably should have dished him after the calder cup run. His value was equal or better than his 61overall ranking, and we really had no use for him in the trajectory where he was tracking. Hindsight is 20/20, chalk that one in the L Column I guess. And the guys like Brown, Lievo, Verhage, and Johnsson are not ones that I am concerned with. All of those players were very good Junior players. They had great numbers when they were drafted, and tracked very well in the years that followed. Far different from the Rasanen's and Greenway's of the world. ALl of the players I listed realistically struggled at the Jr. level when we drafted them, and based the selection seemingly purely off of their size in hopes that they'd somehow figure out how to play the game. Those are the selections I think we could go without

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

 

[Morgs]

Uh?

 

[4thline]

Uh?

Taken at face value it looks like we're trying to have our cake and eat it too wrt to the whole "what's best for Russians" debate. TML development summer school then presumably guaranteed minutes in the KHL.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Taken at face value it looks like we're trying to have our cake and eat it too wrt to the whole "what's best for Russians" debate. TML development summer school then presumably guaranteed minutes in the KHL.

I mean if this is Rodian's wishes to play at home and do a soft transition to NA I am all for it. Russians tend to have a harder transition to NA outside of hockey for whatever reason. I've never personally been to Russia, but I've been lucky enough to go to Europe many times. Most nations I have been to speak English very very well. I am not sure the same can be said in Russia. I couldn't imagine how hard it would be going to a new country and not understanding the language, and having little to no one in the organization to help you along. Obviously SDA, and Gogelev will be with the Marlies, which should help. But I am all for doing whatever will make his transition the easiest. As impatient as we tend to be when it comes to prospects, we cant forget the human element to all of this.

Disclaimer: I have no clue how proficient Rodian's English is. Purely speculating

however, if this decision is to keep good standing with the KHL, I don't personally like it. But I can also understand it's value as well

 

[nobody]

Taken at face value it looks like we're trying to have our cake and eat it too wrt to the whole "what's best for Russians" debate. TML development summer school then presumably guaranteed minutes in the KHL.

This basically. Having him under contract allows us to leverage his development with Ufa too because if they don't give him the minutes or jerk him around we can threaten to pull the plug and bring him over so they're going to be forced to give him a bigger role to keep him there assuming he doesn't completely tank as a player and if he does tank than we can bring him over and try to salvage things. Signing ELC also means that he got his signing bonus and will have the money to live comfortably in Russia and help out his family and whatnot. Good move for us. I really wanted him to come over and play for the Marlies but after watching their idiot coach run talent into the ground, I think I'll be happier if he can bypass the Marlies for the time being.

 

[Bloomberg]

I mean if this is Rodian's wishes to play at home and do a soft transition to NA I am all for it. Russians tend to have a harder transition to NA outside of hockey for whatever reason. I've never personally been to Russia, but I've been lucky enough to go to Europe many times. Most nations I have been to speak English very very well. I am not sure the same can be said in Russia. I couldn't imagine how hard it would be going to a new country and not understanding the language, and having little to no one in the organization to help you along. Obviously SDA, and Gogelev will be with the Marlies, which should help. But I am all for doing whatever will make his transition the easiest. As impatient as we tend to be when it comes to prospects, we cant forget the human element to all of this.

Disclaimer: I have no clue how proficient Rodian's English is. Purely speculating

however, if this decision is to keep good standing with the KHL, I don't personally like it. But I can also understand it's value as well

If I'm a Russian player that's doing well in the KHL. I wouldn't come to North America to play the AHL. Only NHL. There's the home factor, but I think the pay is better in the KHL?

 

[Twine Tickler]

his agent Dan Milstein outlined his plan on Instagram