Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospect Discussion

[Thornbury]

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Colaiacovo really hammered home his point by highlighting the fact that the Leafs really have never drafted and developed a true stud defenseman in the entire Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares era. Really, the Leafs have almost entirely ignored the position since drafting Morgan Rielly.



The Leafs' front office has really done a poor job of drafting and developing defensemen to help address what was one of the biggest organizational needs for the last 8-10 years.

Justin Holl wasn't a Leafs draft pick. Carlo doesn't let facts get in the way of a good argument.

 

[nuck]

Since 2016, Lou's first draft, through this year:

View attachment 899821

Multiple GM's, multiple scouts.

Liljegren

But only one pick in the top 29 used on a D. Trading away 1sts and using the top picks on forwards in 2018-2023 got them where they are today with their D prospect pool. Weak drafting aside this outcome isn't a surprise. There was maybe an overestimation of how talented their system depth was.

 

[Fogelhund]

But only one pick in the top 29 used on a D. Trading away 1sts and using the top picks on forwards in 2018-2023 got them where they are today with their D prospect pool. Weak drafting aside this outcome isn't a surprise. There was maybe an overestimation of how talented their system depth was.

Or maybe our expectations of what our prospect pool should look like, aren't realistic?

How is Florida's D prospect pool? How is Vegas? How is Edmonton? How about Boston? How is Tampa's?

Teams that regularly make the playoffs, and often upgrade in an attempt to compete in the playoffs, are all in the same boat. This is the norm.

The difference... we haven't got any results in the playoffs.. but the prospect pool is perfectly normal.

 

[ULF_55]

But only one pick in the top 29 used on a D. Trading away 1sts and using the top picks on forwards in 2018-2023 got them where they are today with their D prospect pool. Weak drafting aside this outcome isn't a surprise. There was maybe an overestimation of how talented their system depth was.

Results of going for it every year, has just been burning assets for playoffs collapses.

Yeah, their top picks in the previous 6 drafts have been 1 defender and 5 forwards.
The 1 defender is a full time NHLer.

As an aside, they drafted a goal per game player in 2016. Weird eh?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Colaiacovo really hammered home his point by highlighting the fact that the Leafs really have never drafted and developed a true stud defenseman in the entire Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares era. Really, the Leafs have almost entirely ignored the position since drafting Morgan Rielly. The Leafs' front office has really done a poor job of drafting and developing defensemen to help address what was one of the biggest organizational needs for the last 8-10 years.

Defensemen make up 30% of a team's lineup in a hockey game. Since drafting Morgan Rielly, the Leafs have made 89 draft picks. 34% of those picks have been defensemen. They make up 33% of our 1st round picks, 36% of our 2nd round picks, and 45% of our 3rd round picks. The idea that we have ignored the position since drafting Rielly is complete nonsense. Our organizational needs over that time also extended way beyond just defensemen, especially both prior to drafting our core, and once we moved into the flat cap with a strong defensive group and a need for cheap forward depth.

Also, the idea that we only drafted small defensemen is also nonsense. These are the heights of the defensemen we've drafted:

5'9"
5'10"
5'10"
5'11"
5'11"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'1"
6'1"
6'1"
6'1"
6'2"
6'2"
6'2"
6'2"
6'3"
6'3"
6'4"
6'4"
6'4"
6'5"
6'5"
6'5"
6'5"
6'6"
6'6"

We've drafted more defensemen 6'5" or bigger than defensemen under 6 foot. They just all fail, because massive players tend to excel in junior because of their exaggerated size advantage at the time, instead of their actual abilities that are transferrable to the NHL.

What are the heights of these defensemen that have played more than 5 NHL games? In order of GP: 6'0", 5'11", 6'0", 6'1", 6'2", 5'9".
What are the heights of these defensemen that have made the NHL as regulars? 6'0", 5'11", 6'0", 6'1".
The best defenseman we've drafted through that time was 5'11" and drafted by the guy you criticize.
Our best defensive prospects right now are 6'1" and 6'0".

Through that time, we were only really in the draft position to select "stud defensemen" in 2014, 2015, and 2016, and there were much better forwards (which we also needed at the time) available at our top spots - which have all been excellent selections. And that's of course following up the stud defenseman we spent a lottery pick on in 2012.

You should probably stop using Colaiacovo as a source, because he seems to have no clue what he's talking about.

 

[Madap]

Or maybe our expectations of what our prospect pool should look like, aren't realistic?

How is Florida's D prospect pool? How is Vegas? How is Edmonton? How about Boston? How is Tampa's?

Teams that regularly make the playoffs, and often upgrade in an attempt to compete in the playoffs, are all in the same boat. This is the norm.

The difference... we haven't got any results in the playoffs.. but the prospect pool is perfectly normal.

You’re acting like that’s a small difference… but a team actually winning or at least making it to the finals is a huge difference than a team that is a near guaranteed lock for a first round exit.

It’s a failure of our management that they keep spending draft picks to make minor depth changes to a team with no shot of winning anything.

 

[ULF_55]

It’s a failure of our management that they keep spending draft picks to make minor depth changes to a team with no shot of winning anything.

This year they made those changes July 1st.

OEL
Tanev

These are the moves they usually make at the deadline.

And of course, hired a Cup winning coach.
Now Berube has won a Cup, but also lost in 1st. round 3 times and 2nd. round twice.

 

[nuck]

Or maybe our expectations of what our prospect pool should look like, aren't realistic?

How is Florida's D prospect pool? How is Vegas? How is Edmonton? How about Boston? How is Tampa's?

Teams that regularly make the playoffs, and often upgrade in an attempt to compete in the playoffs, are all in the same boat. This is the norm.

The difference... we haven't got any results in the playoffs.. but the prospect pool is perfectly normal.

I was more thinking what it should have been with the NHL cast they had. All those clubs except the Oilers had better D than the Leafs and the Oil have Connor and Leon in the playoffs. If you think your D corps is better than it is, or that getting better is unnecessary based on your other strengths, then you are stuck in the middle. Never quite having the pieces in place and not having defense help on the way. They have better forwards and help in the form of more forwards on the way but the D is weaker in both areas.

 

[VanW27]

You’re acting like that’s a small difference… but a team actually winning or at least making it to the finals is a huge difference than a team that is a near guaranteed lock for a first round exit.

It’s a failure of our management that they keep spending draft picks to make minor depth changes to a team with no shot of winning anything.

Of course it's a failure, but it should be clear to everyone by now the contender status, keep the band together, go for it, etc. is coming from the top (Shanny and up).

 

[Fogelhund]

I was more thinking what it should have been with the NHL cast they had. All those clubs except the Oilers had better D than the Leafs and the Oil have Connor and Leon in the playoffs. If you think your D corps is better than it is, or that getting better is unnecessary based on your other strengths, then you are stuck in the middle. Never quite having the pieces in place and not having defense help on the way. They have better forwards and help in the form of more forwards on the way but the D is weaker in both areas.

So it isn't the drafting that's the issue... just that our D hasn't been good enough?

You’re acting like that’s a small difference… but a team actually winning or at least making it to the finals is a huge difference than a team that is a near guaranteed lock for a first round exit.

It’s a failure of our management that they keep spending draft picks to make minor depth changes to a team with no shot of winning anything.

If we didn't try and load up, people like you would be complaining just as equally, that management never went all in. You'd call it a failure of management.

 

[nuck]

So it isn't the drafting that's the issue... just that our D hasn't been good enough?

Both I would say. If you don't spend any draft capital on defense prospects you can't really expect to have any kind of a pipeline. Your scouts have to be more lucky than good to pull top 4 defensemen outside the first three rounds. It can be done but the Leafs haven't managed that since Stralman.

If the D in the lineup are good and not too old you can go a long ways and not feel the pinch but that hasn't been the case because the lineup solutions were mostly too old and spread out so much that they didn't have enough overlap before they aged out or broke down.

 

[aingefan]

Since 2016, Lou's first draft, through this year:

View attachment 899821

Multiple GM's, multiple scouts.

Liljegren

Another take on that list is that it’s 23 picks or the equivalent of 3 and 2/7th full drafts worth of D picked. The picks, though spread out over 9 years are pretty balanced though maybe skewed abit to rds 5-7.
A good draft yields two players who play 200+ games. So, good drafting should net you 6 and maybe 7 200+ game guys.
So far 3 guys have hit that mark and are entering their prime. Highest pick was 17.
That’s 3/23, not so hot.
Lots of guys are in the system still though. Niemela, Kokkonen, Villeneuve are signed pros who don’t need waivers yet. Chadwick and Danford are signed juniors who haven’t started their service clocks. Four other junior/euro/college kids with retained rights.
I’d bet a dollar that Niemela, Chadwick and Danford hit the mark, so the rating might yet climb to ‘fine’ from ‘not so hot’.

 

[Fogelhund]

Another take on that list is that it’s 23 picks or the equivalent of 3 and 2/7th full drafts worth of D picked. The picks, though spread out over 9 years are pretty balanced though maybe skewed abit to rds 5-7.
A good draft yields two players who play 200+ games. So, good drafting should net you 6 and maybe 7 200+ game guys.
So far 3 guys have hit that mark and are entering their prime. Highest pick was 17.
That’s 3/23, not so hot.
Lots of guys are in the system still though. Niemela, Kokkonen, Villeneuve are signed pros who don’t need waivers yet. Chadwick and Danford are signed juniors who haven’t started their service clocks. Four other junior/euro/college kids with retained rights.
I’d bet a dollar that Niemela, Chadwick and Danford hit the mark, so the rating might yet climb to ‘fine’ from ‘not so hot’.

Or call it like it is, premature judgement.

 

[Madap]

So it isn't the drafting that's the issue... just that our D hasn't been good enough?





If we didn't try and load up, people like you would be complaining just as equally, that management never went all in. You'd call it a failure of management.

You have no idea what I’d say, but go ahead and assume whatever you want to make yourself feel better about our management. I’m sure you need it.

Of course it's a failure, but it should be clear to everyone by now the contender status, keep the band together, go for it, etc. is coming from the top (Shanny and up).

Yeah absolutely. I was definitely including him in with management.

 

[ULF_55]

Or call it like it is, premature judgement.

I’d bet a dollar that Niemela, Chadwick and Danford hit the mark, so the rating might yet climb to ‘fine’ from ‘not so hot’.

Well, you don't make bets after the event.

 

[The Iceman]

You’re acting like that’s a small difference… but a team actually winning or at least making it to the finals is a huge difference than a team that is a near guaranteed lock for a first round exit.

It’s a failure of our management that they keep spending draft picks to make minor depth changes to a team with no shot of winning anything.

OT game 7 is close isn’t it?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

One under-the-radar prospect who could play games for each Atlantic Division team in 2024-25

Carter Mazur, Stephen Halliday, and Jacob Quillan are among the Metropolitan Division prospects on the cusp of making the jump...

www.dailyfaceoff.com

It was incredible to watch a relatively unheralded Quinnipiac Bobcats team capture the NCAA Championship in 2023 over a Minnesota side that included Logan Cooley, Brock Faber, Matthew Knies, Jimmy Snuggerud, Jackson LaCombe, and Ryan Johnson. It took a full team effort from the likes of Collin Graf, Sam Lipkin, Ethan De Jong, Zach Metsa, and Yaniv Perets to pull off that victory, but it was Jacob Quillan who truly turned the tide for Quinnipiac in that championship run.

The Dartmouth, Nova Scotia-born Quillan was named the Frozen Four’s Most Outstanding Player in 2023 after scoring three points in a 5-2 win over the University of Michigan and the overtime winning goal in the National Championship game against Minnesota. Quillan followed that up with 46 points in 39 games as a junior at Quinnipiac in the 2023-24 season, after which the Leafs signed him as an undrafted NCAA free agent. According to Daily Faceoff‘s Steven Ellis, “his growth the past two years, his cheap AAV and his ability to kill penalties and draw energy makes [Quillan] an interesting bottom-line option.”

Quillan I think gets glossed over in terms of our young players and prospects, which isn't surprising when you've got forwards like Cowan and Minten in the system and guys like Knies, Robertson, Holmberg, and Dewar already on the team. However we shouldn't be surprised if Quillan, who's further along in his development than our CHL prospects wins the spot as the 13th forward instead. He was highly sought after by a lot of NHL teams, including Boston.

 

[darrylsittler27]

One under-the-radar prospect who could play games for each Atlantic Division team in 2024-25

Carter Mazur, Stephen Halliday, and Jacob Quillan are among the Metropolitan Division prospects on the cusp of making the jump...

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Quillan I think gets glossed over in terms of our young players and prospects, which isn't surprising when you've got forwards like Cowan and Minten in the system and guys like Knies, Robertson, Holmberg, and Dewar already on the team. However we shouldn't be surprised if Quillan, who's further along in his development than our CHL prospects wins the spot as the 13th forward instead. He was highly sought after by a lot of NHL teams, including Boston.

He probably is quite good but after years of overhype I don't get excited until they play a year in the ahl where I expect he will. Right now we have guys ahead of him and he may actually never play with us.

I like all of this.

I agree on the Minten approach. It might be good to get him a few games in the NHL this year so he can benchmark his development and readiness and go back to the AHL knowing what work he needs to do. Him getting 1C touches and minutes might be exactly the grooming he needs to be a 3C in the show, which I think is a fine place for him to end up. 3C/4C combination of Minten and Quillan could be huge for us for the next 5 to 7 years.

I also think we should give Steeves a real look this year, probably once injuries hit. I feel like he has done what have needed him to do as a Marlie and we should reward that with an opportunity.

I would like to see Robertson, Holmberg, Minten, Cowan, Grebyenkin, and Steeves play a combined 300 NHL games this year. We need to start integrating youth into the lineup (maybe include A. Nylander in this, he is a wildcard).

Cowan is another situational one. I used to think being with big club was best for his development (nothing left to learn in the O) and for the team (depth with energy and upside). Now I think we only plan for the nine games unless he blows our doors off and forces his way into the top nine. He would be taking a spot from Robertson or Holmberg. Those guys have upside too so it's a bit about asset management. I could see either of the following being a good call:

(a) He sticks with the Leafs and gets into +/- 40 games this year, he practices with pros and NHL coaches every day, he observes and learns from the pressbox too, he gets released to the juniors and leads them, he is a fresh playoff option for us, and he is prepare and confident to be an a full timer and contributor the following year.

(b) He goes back to the Knights, plays centre, bulks up a bit, works on his game, and shows us he can do what he did last year again only as the undisputed leader of his team. He goes to the juniors and has more impact there too. He comes to camp next year to win a job or be a Marlie fighting for a call up all year.

Plan (B) seems like the more measured and patient approach and we do have other youth we want to integrate this year. Grebyenkin for example.

I doubt Minten gets more than 9 games too. It makes no sense to pay Kampf $2.4 Mill. while trying to get Minten 4th line minutes. Why rush him?

 

[darrylsittler27]

Well, you don't make bets after the event.

I think that Niemela is overhyped but Chadwick and Danford are better. Niemela is a number 6 or 7 but we have a vet defense.

 

[Fogelhund]

""

 

[Fogelhund]

I think that Niemela is overhyped but Chadwick and Danford are better. Niemela is a number 6 or 7 but we have a vet defense

The thing is... they are different. They do different things, and bring different aspects to the table.

Better at what though? and these are guys you've all watched extensively?

 

[ULF_55]

I think that Niemela is overhyped but Chadwick and Danford are better. Niemela is a number 6 or 7 but we have a vet defense.

He may be.

I, and probably not alone, would like to see him given an opportunity.

Let's not see another asset go elsewhere and have success, unless it returns more than a Lamoriello Grabner event.

 

[conFABulator]

He probably is quite good but after years of overhype I don't get excited until they play a year in the ahl where I expect he will. Right now we have guys ahead of him and he may actually never play with us.


I doubt Minten gets more than 9 games too. It makes no sense to pay Kampf $2.4 Mill. while trying to get Minten 4th line minutes. Why rush him?

Minten will be a Marlie though, so there is no nine game limit on him. I agree that he won't see too many Leaf games unless we get an injury or Minten is unexpectedly very, very strong.

 

[Fogelhund]

""

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Minten will be a Marlie though, so there is no nine game limit on him. I agree that he won't see too many Leaf games unless we get an injury or Minten is unexpectedly very, very strong.

A little side topic, do his 4 games played from the start of last season not count towards the 9 or is it reset this season?