Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospect Discussion

[The Iceman]

A little side topic, do his 4 games played from the start of last season not count towards the 9 or is it reset this season?

I think the answer is because he can be sent to the AHL this year the # of games played as a Leaf is of no consequence.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

I think the answer is because he can be sent to the AHL this year the # of games played as a Leaf is of no consequence.

Oh right, that makes sense. Contract wont slide unless he goes back to the CHL as an over-age haha.

 

[conFABulator]

A little side topic, do his 4 games played from the start of last season not count towards the 9 or is it reset this season?

I don't think there is any scenario where he goes back to the O. That's the only time the nine games matter.

 

[aingefan]

""

Anyone know what Nick’s toi was?
Role in Michigan?
Not uncommon for college guys to have to earn their chops/be brought along slowly.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Defensemen make up 30% of a team's lineup in a hockey game. Since drafting Morgan Rielly, the Leafs have made 89 draft picks. 34% of those picks have been defensemen. They make up 33% of our 1st round picks, 36% of our 2nd round picks, and 45% of our 3rd round picks. The idea that we have ignored the position since drafting Rielly is complete nonsense. Our organizational needs over that time also extended way beyond just defensemen, especially both prior to drafting our core, and once we moved into the flat cap with a strong defensive group and a need for cheap forward depth.

Also, the idea that we only drafted small defensemen is also nonsense. These are the heights of the defensemen we've drafted:

5'9"
5'10"
5'10"
5'11"
5'11"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'0"
6'1"
6'1"
6'1"
6'1"
6'2"
6'2"
6'2"
6'2"
6'3"
6'3"
6'4"
6'4"
6'4"
6'5"
6'5"
6'5"
6'5"
6'6"
6'6"

We've drafted more defensemen 6'5" or bigger than defensemen under 6 foot. They just all fail, because massive players tend to excel in junior because of their exaggerated size advantage at the time, instead of their actual abilities that are transferrable to the NHL.

What are the heights of these defensemen that have played more than 5 NHL games? In order of GP: 6'0", 5'11", 6'0", 6'1", 6'2", 5'9".
What are the heights of these defensemen that have made the NHL as regulars? 6'0", 5'11", 6'0", 6'1".
The best defenseman we've drafted through that time was 5'11" and drafted by the guy you criticize.
Our best defensive prospects right now are 6'1" and 6'0".

Through that time, we were only really in the draft position to select "stud defensemen" in 2014, 2015, and 2016, and there were much better forwards (which we also needed at the time) available at our top spots - which have all been excellent selections. And that's of course following up the stud defenseman we spent a lottery pick on in 2012.

You should probably stop using Colaiacovo as a source, because he seems to have no clue what he's talking about.

So the Leafs don't suck at drafting Dmen, they suck at scouting and developing them...big difference.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So the Leafs don't suck at drafting Dmen, they suck at scouting and developing them...big difference.

To make such a claim would require a comparative analysis based on our draft positions and the general success rate for relevant defensemen over that time.
It seems you missed the biggest underlying lesson of that post - to do your research before making claims.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

To make such a claim would require a comparative analysis based on our draft positions and the general success rate for relevant defensemen over that time.
It seems you missed the biggest underlying lesson of that post - to do your research before making claims.

Your response was to a statement that we don't draft dmen, your argument listed a huge list of dmen we drafted. Clearly it's not a lack of picks but quality and development of players.

Either the Leafs are extremely unlucky or they cannot develop dmen.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Either the Leafs are extremely unlucky or they cannot develop dmen.

Or your expectations are off. That's where actually doing your research before making claims comes in.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Or your expectations are off. That's where actually doing your research before making claims comes in.

You expect me to 'do research' before posting in a message board lol.
Sorry chief, I have a life.

 

[4thline]

Your response was to a statement that we don't draft dmen, your argument listed a huge list of dmen we drafted. Clearly it's not a lack of picks but quality and development of players.

Either the Leafs are extremely unlucky or they cannot develop dmen.

I think this overstates it. From 2015 to 2018 the Leafs used:
17, 29, 34, 52, 59, 65, 72 plus another handful of 4th to 7th's on Dmen.

The 17 (Liljegren) turned into a 6-7 (that might round into a 4-5)
The 29 (Sandin) turned into a 4-5
The 34 (Dermott) turned into 6-7
The 52 (Durzi) turned into a 4-5
The 59 (Rasanen), 65 (Neilson), and 72 (Greenway) all busted.
We got nothing out of the late rounds.

Going 3/3 getting NHLers in the 17-34 range is actually beating the odds, and 1/4 in the 52-72 range is not too shabby. 2x 4-5's and 2x 6-7's is actually a pretty decent haul overall- decent, but unlucky in that:

• not a single one of our 4th-7th rounders panned out
• that the one 52-72 that panned out (and one of the two top 4 guys) was the one that was traded as a prospect
• that we didn't get a solid 2-3 out of the bunch
• that none of the "heavies" panned out, creating a pretty milquetoast group

Death by many cuts.

Edit- ever the optimist, our view of things may change significantly if Liljegren can take a couple steps under Berube, be our Forsling

 

[Dekes For Days]

You expect me to 'do research' before posting in a message board lol.

When you're making a claim, you should have some understanding of whether it's true. I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation of anyone.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

When you're making a claim, you should have some understanding of whether it's true. I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation of anyone.

I am making a claim that the Leafs have not scouted, drafted and developed a star Dman outside of Reilly for ages. This is not a claim, it's a fact.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I am making a claim that the Leafs have not scouted, drafted and developed a star Dman outside of Reilly for ages. This is not a claim, it's a fact.

Actually, your claim was that the Leafs "suck at scouting and developing" defensemen, which you did not have supporting information for. It is true that the Leafs have not drafted a star defenseman since Rielly yet, but considering that we're talking about draft positions no earlier than 17th, and many of those picks aren't finished developing, that doesn't seem all that unusual or noteworthy.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Actually, your claim was that the Leafs "suck at scouting and developing" defensemen, which you did not have supporting information for. It is true that the Leafs have not drafted a star defenseman since Rielly yet, but considering that we're talking about draft positions no earlier than 17th, and many of those picks aren't finished developing, that doesn't seem all that unusual or noteworthy.

Fun fact, the Leafs do still suck at scouting and developing dmen. My research is that the blue line is their biggest weakness and they try and address it by throwing draft picks at it each TDL, and money at it each Free Agency.

If they didn't suck at scouting and developing, they'd have more than Rielly & Lilly as the only homegrown players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Fun fact, the Leafs do still suck at scouting and developing dmen.My research is that the blue line is their biggest weakness and they try and address it by throwing draft picks at it each TDL, and money at it each Free Agency.

That's not a fact, and that's not relevant research to your claim. Utilizing free agency and trade options really says nothing about our scouting and development proficiency.

If they didn't suck at scouting and developing, they'd have more than Rielly & Lilly as the only homegrown players.

Two years ago, 4 of our 6 most played defensemen were homegrown. Were we good at scouting and developing then? Or maybe this is meaningless?

 

[Larcos_Unal]

That's not a fact, and that's not relevant research to your claim. Utilizing free agency and trade options really says nothing about our scouting and development proficiency.

Two years ago, 4 of our 6 most played defensemen were homegrown. Were we good at scouting and developing then? Or maybe this is meaningless?

It is relevant research, you don't get to decide what is good research. I spent hours compiling data.

 

[LeafChief]

Are you guys done?

 

[ULF_55]

Are you guys done?

 

[LeafChief]

View attachment 900800

You learning how to use Excel?

 

[Fogelhund]

View attachment 900800

Dermott is a "double", but Lilljegren is a "walk" and Sandin is a "Single".... what am I reading here?

 

[ULF_55]

You learning how to use Excel?

I know olde school.

Don't have PowerBI or SSRS at home ...

Hated Tableau ... supporting it was poop.


Not a great looking result of drafting D.

 

[Fogelhund]

You need a column, not dead yet, for Nick Mattinen... who appeared to have busted, and is back on the scene.

 

[ULF_55]

Dermott is a "double", but Lilljegren is a "walk" and Sandin is a "Single".... what am I reading here?

They will change over time.

Based on Games Played.

 

[ULF_55]

You need a column, not dead yet, for Nick Mattinen... who appeared to have busted, and is back on the scene.

View attachment 900828

Yes, someone pulled the stake out.

 

[LeafSteel]

View attachment 900800

I know he wasn’t drafted but I strongly suggest Marincin be represented here under a “Suspended for Doping” column please.