Prospect Info: Marlies & Prospect Discussion

[Dekes For Days]

Iam saying at the time of the draft.

At the time of the draft, the Leafs had multiple promising defensive prospects, and needed LWs and cheap forward depth through the flat cap. Amirov was an excellent prospect, the defensemen alternatives haven't been anything special, and it's pretty ridiculous to compare outcomes with a kid who died of cancer in the first place.

 

[The Iceman]

Dubas also looked frustrated to make the Amirov selection.

Rumor was he was working hard to trade the pick and he waited until late in the selection clock to final select Amirov.

 

[horner]

Dubas also looked frustrated to make the Amirov selection.

Rumor was he was working hard to trade the pick and he waited until late in the selection clock to final select Amirov.

Ok thanks

He’s got size, can skate. He’s a RD.

I think it will come down to his ability to adapt to the North American game and speed.

I’d have no expectations, and be surprised if he becomes something. He’s a lottery ticket.

His old coach thinks a lot of him though. I posted an article from his coach a few pages back. Probably worth reading. It gave me more hope he might turn into something.

Also heard he has a bomb from the point.

 

[Fogelhund]

Ok thanks


Also heard he has a bomb from the point.

He does.

""

 

[horner]

Both those teams also draft what you would call small dman. They draft just like the Leafs do. The best player available with that pick. Drafting by size is a very bad way to decide on your picks. Just ask Brian Burke.
Even if the Leafs drafted only defenseman over 6'4" and lets say they got 4 to hit it doesn't mean they would be a better team now. In fact it would mean they would be much worse. Young bluelines usually are very bad blue lines.
Look at the cup winners over the last 10 years. They have 1 to 3 drafted Dmen in their top 6 and then they added smartly via a trade or free agency. IF you want to blame Dubas for anything it was not signing Pietrangelo when he was a free agent and not signing Tanev when he signed Brodie. The Muzzin trade was exactly the type of trade the team needed it just unfortantely ended badly with his injury.

They don't have to be big dman but you need dman which we don't.
.
That is changing with Treliving.

 

[VanW27]

This is like asking how Florida was able to win with Kulikov.

Play driving stats are bad.

His team gets scored on more than they score when he is on the ice.

He adds nothing offensively.

He is just not good.

I can expand on this more if you want, but he was rushed to the NHL because he was large and has struggled since.



It costs assets or cap space.

They probably should, but a #6 D is not the biggest concern I am sure.

Are you trying to tell me every team that does well has a perfect roster?

Of course im not saying that a good team must have a perfect roster. But if he's a garbage 6 and you're a contender like the Rags it's a pretty easy spot to fill. Hell we've traded for 2 physical bottom pair dmen at last deadline, and 1 or more each of the last several deadlines.

Unless you're saying he's "garbage" in the sense of being a bottom pair dman and not good enough to be more than that. As opposed to saying he's a garbage bottom pair dman? That's a big difference.

We've traded away how many 2nd/3rd/4ths/etc for 15 games + playoffs of a Schneider type dman in each of the last 3 years?

 

[notbias]

Of course im not saying that a good team must have a perfect roster. But if he's a garbage 6 and you're a contender like the Rags it's a pretty easy spot to fill. Hell we've traded for 2 physical bottom pair dmen at last deadline, and 1 or more each of the last several deadlines.

Unless you're saying he's "garbage" in the sense of being a bottom pair dman and not good enough to be more than that. As opposed to saying he's a garbage bottom pair dman? That's a big difference.

We've traded away how many 2nd/3rd/4ths/etc for 15 games + playoffs of a Schneider type dman in each of the last 3 years?

I'd say he is an average bottom pairing, he's the type of guy you can sign for 1-1.5 million every UFA season.

I don't understand the whining that comes along with not picking him, people generally have no clue how he is doing and think we should have taken him.

I also think it is stupid to trade a bunch of mid-round picks for bottom-pairing rentals, I agree with you, but people are also advocating to have used a 15th overall on him, which is also not a great strategy.

 

[VanW27]

I'd say he is an average bottom pairing, he's the type of guy you can sign for 1-1.5 million every UFA season.

I don't understand the whining that comes along with not picking him, people generally have no clue how he is doing and think we should have taken him.

I also think it is stupid to trade a bunch of mid-round picks for bottom-pairing rentals, I agree with you, but people are also advocating to have used a 15th overall on him, which is also not a great strategy.

Fair enough, average bottom pairing D sounds about right to me.

I think you might want to check what an established "Heavy" bottom pair D gets as a UFA. Schenn got 2.75 on a retirement contract, Boosh at 30YO just got 3.25, 31YO Edmundson just got 3.85 for 4 years.

You can find bargains like we did with Benoit, but if you want an established "Schneider" type of dman it's costing you more than 1.5

To be clear I'm not advocating we should have taken him or lamenting the "missed opportunity" but it's pretty clear he has value as a cheap homegrown heavy bottom pair dman compared to what it would cost to acquire that player in trade cost and salary.

If we had used the 15th pick on him maybe we don't trade for a heavy bottom pair RD in Schenn or Boosh (2×) the last 3 years. That's a 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 6th right there for guys that are long gone. Let's see how many more picks we shell out for 15 games of a bottom pair physical RD while the Rags have a cost controlled Schneider in that role. Of course at only 22 he could develop beyond that role as well.

 

[notbias]

Fair enough, average bottom pairing D sounds about right to me.

I think you might want to check what an established "Heavy" bottom pair D gets as a UFA. Schenn got 2.75 on a retirement contract, Boosh at 30YO just got 3.25, 31YO Edmundson just got 3.85 for 4 years.

We just signed Hakanpaa and Benoit to 1.5 and 1.35 million dollar contracts.

Schenn got signed by a team with tons of cap space after being top pairing in the playoffs and putting up some of the best numbers in the entire playoffs, everyone thought this contract was way too much by the way.

Edmundson sucks and I think that contract is terrible, good for him, bad for LA.

You can find bargains like we did with Benoit, but if you want an established "Schneider" type of dman it's costing you more than 1.5

Schneider is more of a Benoit than a Schenn.

To be clear I'm not advocating we should have taken him or lamenting the "missed opportunity" but it's pretty clear he has value as a cheap homegrown heavy bottom pair dman compared to what it would cost to acquire that player in trade cost and salary.

I disagree.

If we had used the 15th pick on him maybe we don't trade for a heavy bottom pair RD in Schenn or Boosh (2×) the last 3 years. That's a 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 6th right there for guys that are long gone. Let's see how many more picks we shell out for 15 games of a bottom pair physical RD while the Rags have a cost controlled Schneider in that role. Of course at only 22 he could develop beyond that role as well.

I'd rather go for impact players at 15th instead of a Benoit replacement, but that's just me.

I don't think Schneider will ever look as good as Boosh or Schenn in their most recent outings with the Leafs, so not a good comparison in my opinion.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not a surprise here but...

https://x.com/i/web/status/1824474418740891723

 

[Fogelhund]

If we had used the 15th pick on him maybe we don't trade for a heavy bottom pair RD in Schenn or Boosh (2×) the last 3 years. That's a 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 6th right there for guys that are long gone. Let's see how many more picks we shell out for 15 games of a bottom pair physical RD while the Rags have a cost controlled Schneider in that role. Of course at only 22 he could develop beyond that role as well.

If Amirov hadn't passed... we wouldn't have needed to sign Bertuzzi. We'd have a cost controlled top six LW, putting up 50-60 points.

This only looks bad, due to the very unfortunate circumstances.

I think Schneider ends up a second pairing guy, if he can grow his game... as much as he has had his struggles at times. Even then... I think Amirov would have far outperformed him.

This is a really bad argument.

 

[VanW27]

If Amirov hadn't passed... we wouldn't have needed to sign Bertuzzi. We'd have a cost controlled top six LW, putting up 50-60 points.

This only looks bad, due to the very unfortunate circumstances.

I think Schneider ends up a second pairing guy, if he can grow his game... as much as he has had his struggles at times. Even then... I think Amirov would have far outperformed him.

This is a really bad arargument.

Maybe, impossible to say, could have busted just as easily. All we can say for sure is Schneider from 20 to 22 is filling a role we've repeatedly tried to address at the deadline.

like I said, I'm not trying to argue for Schneider over Amirov. Merely stating Schneider is not "garbage" and is filling a role teams value, on a top end team. Even if fans sometimes don't value that player type.

 

[Fogelhund]

Maybe, impossible to say, could have busted just as easily. All we can say for sure is Schneider from 20 to 22 is filling a role we've repeatedly tried to address at the deadline.

like I said, I'm not trying to argue for Schneider over Amirov. Merely stating Schneider is not "garbage" and is filling a role teams value, on a top end team. Even if fans sometimes don't value that player type.

FWIW, I don't think Schneider is garbage, and I'd love to have him... but he's young, and has struggled at times... I do think he'll be a decent player in time though. That being said... he's a 3rd pairing D right now... and it's not hard to fill that spot.. it's higher up the lineup that gets difficult.

Keep in mind, I was the guy willing to move Marner out in the offseason, for picks and prospects... like the 8OA, and would have targeted a RD. I also wanted a early 2nd, to pick Elick... So I appreciate the need.. and under my scenario we would have drafted 3 D this year. But I don't think that not picking Schneider was the wrong move either... The way it turned out is just tragic... nothing we can do there.

 

[Fogelhund]

""

Is there a NHL player there? Cushman thinks so. He ranked 99th percentile in xGA in the AHL... extremely good defensively, world class skater, has decent size, physical, stands up for teammates. If he gets opportunity, he might seize it. No real offensive upside though.

 

[ULF_55]

This is like asking how Florida was able to win with Kulikov.

Play driving stats are bad.

His team gets scored on more than they score when he is on the ice.

He adds nothing offensively.

He is just not good.

I can expand on this more if you want, but he was rushed to the NHL because he was large and has struggled since.



It costs assets or cap space.

They probably should, but a #6 D is not the biggest concern I am sure.

Are you trying to tell me every team that does well has a perfect roster?

Just Stats:

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

They don't have to be big dman but you need dman which we don't.
.
That is changing with Treliving.

But the Leafs have drafted 3 top 4 Dmen since drafting Matthews. They also have Rielly who was drafted before Matthews. Durzi, Sandin, and Liljegren are all top 4 dmen in this league. Only 2 are still with the team.

Only thing Treliving is changing is the names. He is filling the holes exactly the same way Dubas did before him. Difference is the Leafs finally have dedicated more cap space to the defense because they had 4 cheap forwards gaduate to the big club and have 2 more for sure that will be joining the big club over the next season and a half. IT could be as high as 4 more forwards. With all those cheap ELC and second contracts it allows more spending on the defense.

 

[Menzinger]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1824491744253317170

 

[Byron Bitz]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1824491744253317170

That’s good but isn’t he a bit old for the MHL?

 

[ULF_55]

That’s good but isn’t he a bit old for the MHL?

Great question.

What is the average age in that league?

Teams look like a training ground, with players rotating in and out of MHL and VHL.

Last year:

Ice Hockey Federation of Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[darrylsittler27]

Dubas drafted Amirov, a centre ahead of Schneider.

The problem is you cant call that a mistake. If Amirov became the next Kucherov....

 

[darrylsittler27]

But the Leafs have drafted 3 top 4 Dmen since drafting Matthews. They also have Rielly who was drafted before Matthews. Durzi, Sandin, and Liljegren are all top 4 dmen in this league. Only 2 are still with the team.

Only thing Treliving is changing is the names. He is filling the holes exactly the same way Dubas did before him. Difference is the Leafs finally have dedicated more cap space to the defense because they had 4 cheap forwards gaduate to the big club and have 2 more for sure that will be joining the big club over the next season and a half. IT could be as high as 4 more forwards. With all those cheap ELC and second contracts it allows more spending on the defense.

Trading Marner allows the spending of more on defense too.

 

[conFABulator]

The problem is you cant call that a mistake. If Amirov became the next Kucherov....

Exactly. I wasn't calling it a misake

 

[BobClarkesfrontteeth]

Trading Marner allows the spending of more on defense too.

Not going to be able to trade him this year with his NMC. Next off season they Leafs will have around 30 mil to spend. They can fill any hole they want with it.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Nikita Grebyonkin is eager to begin his North American career in the Leafs organization

 

[weems]

Nikita Grebyonkin is eager to begin his North American career in the Leafs organization

Big year for him.
If he dominates the AHL, you can really start to get excited that we found a player.