I hate to be obtuse, but when Pettersson from Vancouver, let’s call him x, is used in these proposed deals for Marcus Pettersson, what is x’s first name?
Value of: Marcus Pettersson.
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I will admit I think Pens fans got overzealous when creating proposals with him going to Vancouver, myself included.
That said: Hoglander + Pettersson + 1st would match (value-wise) with what Guentzel got. I could even see something like Hoglander, Pettersson, Raty, 2nd as a comparable as well. Especially if Dubas gives JR permission to speak with Pettersson about an extension and one is in place before hand.
I think Guentzel's value was hurt a bit by Dubas not allowing teams to talk extensions with him and then Jake wanting to test free agency. With that in mind, he was truly a rental at the time of the deal. Show me a pure rental that's returned more than that recently.
Peter Griffin
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Why is Marcus Pettersson garnering the same return as Jake Guentzel though? 4 pieces for Pettersson is crazy, considering we’re not talking 4th rounders or something.
Yeah like Pettersson is probably also a rental, no? and even if he's allowed to talk with teams, I still don't think he returns as much as a rental Guentzel.
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Why would the assumption be that things would be any different with Pettersson though?
Guentzel is also a much better player than Pettersson, we're talking a 1W vs a 2nd pair D.
Empoleon8771
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Which is a hell of a lot more than just Hoglander straight up. Nor are you explaining why a rebuilding team would trade their best trade chip for a 23 year old 3rd liner.
You mean when Canucks fans insisted that something like Podkolzin, Raty and a 2nd for Guentzel would get it done?
Pettersson only brings back that return if Vancouver goes fully stupid.
A cap dump, Pettersson and a 1st is realistically the highest return I can see Pettersson bringing back, and even that's iffy.
Peter Griffin
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That’s not far off of what he actually went for. Far cry from the Lekkerimaki+ or the Carolina deals featuring multiples of Nadeau/Morrow/Blake.
Empoleon8771
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Yes it is absolutely far off from what he went for. Raty is a nice prospect, but Podkolzin was dumped for a 4th. That is significantly less valuable than Bunting, Ponomarev, Koivunen, Lucius and a 2nd.
Let's just put it another way, past trades suggests Pettersson's value is likely something along a 1st and 3rd rounder. Do you think any team would trade a 1st and 3rd rounder for Hoglander? If not, then why would the Penguins?
Peter Griffin
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It’s about a b prospect and Hoglander away. I wished Allvin was more proactive considering what Guentzel actually went for.
I never suggested they would?
RandV
It's a wolf v2.0
If you put various offers to an HF poll and ask to rank value then sure. But NHL GM's don't just accept the highest "value" offer by default, they take the one that best fits what they're looking for. I can't read the Atlantic article, but if Dubas is looking for NHL-ready young players, then Hoglander will be of significant value to him and an edge for Vancouver. Lots of playoff teams will be offering picks and prospects for rentals, not a lot will be offering young contributing players straight off the roster.
Empoleon8771
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I think Hoglander, 2 B prospects and a 2nd rounder is way different than what most Canucks fans were offering in those Guentzel threads. There were a ton of Canucks fans who were flat out unwilling to even entertain the idea of trading Hoglander at the time.
Penguins fans 100% asked for way too much and Guentzel ended up bringing back far less, but let's not pretend that Canucks fans weren't also lowballing the hell out of Guentzel's value here and he ended up bringing back way more.
I don't doubt that Dubas would want Hoglander, I'm saying he wouldn't do Pettersson for Hoglander 1 for 1. Because it's a terrible deal for the Penguins.
If Hoglander would be in the deal, I'd expect it would be something like Hoglander, Myrio and a 2025 2nd for Pettersson. That's a totally reasonable package IMO.
Peter Griffin
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There’s Pens fans in this thread suggesting Pettersson returns what Guentzel got last year. This is what I was referring to when I said this feels like last year all over again. A late 1st and small add or 2nd and “b” prospect is his likely worth.
Empoleon8771
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Yeah and I think most fans agree with you there. I asked Penguins fans in our Salary Cap thread about what they thought of Desharnais, Pettersson and a 2nd for Pettersson and Hoglander, Myrio and a 2nd for Pettersson, and the responses were fairly positive on it.
I don't think most Penguins fans are expecting anything asinine for him. Just not Hoglander straight up like what was said on the last page.
OtherThingsILike
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Gurglesons
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Seems like Marcus Pettersson will be one of the best UFAs on the trade block this deadline and also he's the age where signing him for 5-6 years would probably be the best deal you are getting for a D in UFA.
Dubas is the GM, so I bet we get crushed in the trade, but he should return more.
If Vancouver gives up their 1st and Hoglander, I'd be stoked on that return.
Pettersson is a top pairing dman.
He's not a PPQB, but vancouver doesn't need a PPQB.
Pens fans in here are being light on what they're asking for the best dman on the market.
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Luigi Lemieux
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Pettersson is the best dman available and they go for a premium. Heck Chiarot brought back a 1st at the 2023 deadline.
That said I don't have much confidence at the moment that Dubas will actually bring back the value that Pettersson commands.
Luigi Lemieux
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KrisLetAngry
MrJukeBoy
1st or 2nd + prospect probably In the 3 to 7 range on a team.
Unless they are a team with 0 prospects that are considered good (Penguins fan we have been there) definitely a 1st.
Unless they are a team with 0 prospects that are considered good (Penguins fan we have been there) definitely a 1st.
The Penguins are not exactly rebuilding, they're re-tooling, no? Teams like that are looking for contributing players, not picks or prospects. And that's precisely why Hoglander fits the bill - he clearly has ability to play, he's not consistent in his production/performance, and players like him get moved all the time in trades because that's what teams are willing to trade/take flyers on. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. A similar player in Brannstrom wasn't tendered a QO in Ottawa, went to Colorado, didn't perform well, and got traded to Vancouver... and it's working here.
It's also not about Hoglander being a massively valuable piece. It's just the reality of what to expect in return for a UFA. Teams aren't going to give up good young players for UFAs. Two seasons ago, a few posters on the Canucks board created trade target lists of 22-25 year old players who weren't exactly untouchables yet due to consistency/performance issues, and one of them was Filip Hronek. That's paid off, but it could've easily been worse for the Canucks if they had targeted someone else. Other players were Newhook and Kotkaniemi. Hoglander is probably on a list like that for tons of teams.
