Pre-Game Talk: March 9th vs Washington

[KMart27]

16-8-1 gets them to 97 points. Media predicts 94 points get them in which would be 15-10. A team that hasn’t played .750 hockey since the first 21 games of the season has to play at least .750 ho key to get a wildcard spot.

15-10 is .600.

 

[The Panther]

I'd be reasonably optimistic about the Oilers going 15-10 or better to end the season if they had a healthy line-up. So, again, I feel the current depleted roster really has to win the Washington game tomorrow or it's probably lights-out.

Lose tomorrow, and they'd need to go at least 16-9 and, more realistically, probably 17-8, which I cannot see happening right now. Nuh-uh!

The season is on the line tomorrow, as I see it.

 

[TKB21]

Buddy can barely even score a 3 pointer this year...not to mention 5 pointer. Since January 1st McDavid has had 1 game of 3 points or more and 12 0 point games.

This is true, he’s been a huge part of the problem these last few months. If your best players aren’t going to play like it then your team is just as screwed as it is with crap goaltending.

 

[NewEraGM]

Need to go at least 16-9 rest of the way. That’s the minimum to get a wildcard OR an epic collapse by VGK and the oilers get 3rd in division by default.

 

[NewEraGM]

The schedule in early April is where the season plays out.
Oilers play:
STL
3 California teams (easier ones of this stretch)
COL x2
VGK
MIN
NASH
DAL

There’s your season. That’s 10 games. Going 5-5 against those teams would be good. Mean in the remaining 15 games they need to probably win 11 of them

 

[Soundwave]

The schedule in early April is where the season plays out.
Oilers play:
STL
3 California teams (easier ones of this stretch)
COL x2
VGK
MIN
NASH
DAL

There’s your season. That’s 10 games. Going 5-5 against those teams would be good. Mean in the remaining 15 games they need to probably win 11 of them

The season played out when in January Holland sat on his ass and refused to do anything about coaching or goaltending.

 

[tardigrade81]

Oh ya…. We play tonight

well. Go Oilers.

 

[McJadeddog]

Oh boy… not gonna be good.

Yeah, we are gonna get absolutely DESTROYED tonight. The only saving grace is that Washington had a tough game last night against Calgary where they pulled out the win, so maybe they will be a little tired. But yeah, I'm expecting to give up at least 4, and like 5+, goals against tonight.

 

[94 Oil Drops]

I hate being such a downer but I'm going to make a realistic prediction. Oilers never show up in big games. 3-0 Caps. Wilson also gives a key player an injury.

 

[BillyCostigan]

I hate being such a downer but I'm going to make a realistic prediction. Oilers never show up in big games. 3-0 Caps. Wilson also gives a key player an injury.

He should be suspended for his free/dirty as hell knee to knee on Gaudreau yesterday. What a disgusting hockey player.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Yea media predicts 94 points is the playoffs cutoff but you do realize that there is multiple teams fighting for the wc2 and pacific 3 spots on pace for 96 points right? Which is why I am saying we need 97/98 points to get in. Yes by some miracle if other teams fall apart down the stretch 94 points might be enough.

 

[FlameChampion]

Even though Koskinen has been good, I hope they give Skinner a shot tonight.

Have to start putting some trust in him. GM/Coach of the past, have been too afraid to give other goalies a chance in the past. Cant play Koskinen all the time anyway, he breaks down if he starts too many games.

 

[FlameChampion]

Yea media predicts 94 points is the playoffs cutoff but you do realize that there is multiple teams fighting for the wc2 and pacific 3 spots on pace for 96 points right? Which is why I am saying we need 97/98 points to get in. Yes by some miracle if other teams fall apart down the stretch 94 points might be enough.

I think there are situations where teams are playing against one another are going to increase. Like Nashville/Dallas yesterday. Start to see more division/conference games going down the stretch. It wouldnt surprise me if cut off is around 94 points (at least in the west). In the east I could see it being higher because theres some a drop off between playoff and non playoff teams.

 

[McBeastMode]

Special Teams Are Killing The Oilers Link

 

[yukoner88]

I'd be reasonably optimistic about the Oilers going 15-10 or better to end the season if they had a healthy line-up. So, again, I feel the current depleted roster really has to win the Washington game tomorrow or it's probably lights-out.

Lose tomorrow, and they'd need to go at least 16-9 and, more realistically, probably 17-8, which I cannot see happening right now. Nuh-uh!

The season is on the line tomorrow, as I see it.

I'm slightly optimistic for going 15-10 as along as the starting goalie(s) doesnt include Mike S., or M. Smith

 

[tardigrade81]

I'm slightly optimistic for going 15-10 as along as the starting goalie(s) doesnt include Mike S., or M. Smith

Knowing our management he will see the ice at some point

 

[yukoner88]

Even though Koskinen has been good, I hope they give Skinner a shot tonight.

Have to start putting some trust in him. GM/Coach of the past, have been too afraid to give other goalies a chance in the past. Cant play Koskinen all the time anyway, he breaks down if he starts too many games.

Luckily Skinner's biggest fan is behind the bench

 

[yukoner88]

Knowing our management he will see the ice at some point

In a bag, on his constantly hurt groin.

 

[bone]

8 losses is the absolute max they can have

I'm assuming you are factoring OTL and suggesting 17-8 is necesary in the final 25 games or 34 points in 25 games. In Koskinen's starts he has gone 18-9-3 in 30 starts or 39 points in 30 games which prorates to 32.5 points in 25 games.

So in essence we need a goalie that is 1 win above replacement greater than Koskinen to get there. Considering Koskinen isn't exactly a good goalie, this is still achievable.

 

[bone]

16-8-1 gets them to 97 points. Media predicts 94 points get them in which would be 15-10. A team that hasn’t played .750 hockey since the first 21 games of the season has to play at least .750 ho key to get a wildcard spot.

15-10 is only .600.

 

[bone]

Yea media predicts 94 points is the playoffs cutoff but you do realize that there is multiple teams fighting for the wc2 and pacific 3 spots on pace for 96 points right? Which is why I am saying we need 97/98 points to get in. Yes by some miracle if other teams fall apart down the stretch 94 points might be enough.

I agree, the mathematical probability at 94 or 95 is still high, but practically we are starting to see a split happen where the top 10 and bottom 6 are starting to separate as the better 10 teams warm up. I think 97 is looking like the minimum target if you want to eliminate any of the doubt, probably even 98. Granted, winning 6 of the 7 head to heads in regulation against the tightest competition likely helps the cause to reduce the final number.

 

[bone]

I think there are situations where teams are playing against one another are going to increase. Like Nashville/Dallas yesterday. Start to see more division/conference games going down the stretch. It wouldnt surprise me if cut off is around 94 points (at least in the west). In the east I could see it being higher because theres some a drop off between playoff and non playoff teams.

Not if those games go to OT mind you.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

16-8-1 gets them to 97 points. Media predicts 94 points get them in which would be 15-10. A team that hasn’t played .750 hockey since the first 21 games of the season has to play at least .750 ho key to get a wildcard spot.

We can barely go .500 haha. Pray for a miracle I guess.

 

[Mez]

Special Teams Are Killing The Oilers Link

So fking bad....how? I mean nuge is good but hes not god...dont think mcdrai need Nuge to carry them.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I'm assuming you are factoring OTL and suggesting 17-8 is necesary in the final 25 games or 34 points in 25 games. In Koskinen's starts he has gone 18-9-3 in 30 starts or 39 points in 30 games which prorates to 32.5 points in 25 games.

So in essence we need a goalie that is 1 win above replacement greater than Koskinen to get there. Considering Koskinen isn't exactly a good goalie, this is still achievable.

There is I believe 3 team fighting for the Pacific 3/Wildcard 2 spots that are on pace for 96 points so we need 97 points+ to guarantee us a spot. So Koskinen needs to be better than he has been essentially to get us there, all while this team is still decently injured and running 2 of the worst special teams in the league. Can the team get there? Its definitely possible but they are going to need to start Skinner a bunch to do it which they are allergic to and every Smith game is an auto loss.

My overall point is the team has to have a winning record in these next 5 games vs Washington, Tampa, Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey. Washington has been struggling, Tampa is great and the other 3 aren't good. If we can't at the VERY least go 2-2-1 before the deadline, this team will definitely not make the playoffs as this is probably the easiest 5 game set we have till the end of the season. Say the team goes 1-3-1 in this stretch. We then need 30 points in 20 games, Which is something crazy like 15-5-0 or better to make it, which looking at the schedule coming up is next to impossible.

So imho if the team can't come out above 0.500p% in these next 5 games, they should sell or at least NOT buy at the deadline as at that point it would be throwing away picks. If they can successfully get above that mark before the deadline then sure, it might be worth the shot.