Marc Bergevin - Take It Or Leave It Edition

[Lshap]

Imo, the hardest upcoming decision for MB involves positioning the Habs for the expansion draft.

If he does nothing, the Habs will almost certainly lose one of Petry, Juulsen, or Mete. He then gets to keep all three for the 2019 and 2020 playoff runs.

If Bergevin trades one of them, he gets an influx of young players and / or prospects and / or picks, the Habs will do less well in the next two playoffs, and will end up losing one of their third line forwards, perhaps Danault, Lehkonen, or Armia.

Not an obvious choice at all in my opinion.

Good point. I won't even pretend to have an informed opinion on how to maneuver around this, but it's a big factor that'll bite some franchises in the butt.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Keith
2020 1st

For

Poehling
2019 2nd
Alzner
Shlemko
Benn

I don't think I've ever seen a trade where a team trades an aging star along with a first round pick to sweeten the deal. Generally the futures are added from the buyers side

 

[BaseballCoach]

Imo, the hardest upcoming decision for MB involves positioning the Habs for the expansion draft.

If he does nothing, the Habs will almost certainly lose one of Petry, Juulsen, or Mete. He then gets to keep all three for the 2019 and 2020 playoff runs.

If Bergevin trades one of them, he gets an influx of young players and / or prospects and / or picks, the Habs will do less well in the next two playoffs, and will end up losing one of their third line forwards, perhaps Danault, Lehkonen, or Armia.

Not an obvious choice at all in my opinion.

Much ado about nothing. We will lose one player, and the teams we are competing with will also lose one player.

The smart GMs will make sure that the player lost is not one on a great contract, so at worst there will be cap space gained to replace the player, who by definition will be the fourth D or worse, OR the eight Fwd or worse ("or worse" because 1st and 2nd year pros are exempt) OR a backup goalie.

Every contending team will lose one player, relax!

 

[scrubadam]

I guess people just have a grudge or something and want to see this team lose.

Everyone wanted a team that would be hard working, entertaining, that could score and never give up and now we have that team and fans want to dismantle it. I defy anyone to say they have not been entertained this year with this edition of the habs. How about fans reward the teams hard work with support for once.

Habs don't have any UFA so they don't need to dismantle the team this season in the risk of losing assets. How about let the season play out and see where things go and then in the off season the team can decide which direction to move forward on. Things will be a lot different if the team finishes 10th vs making the 3rd of the playoffs.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The idea of adding Kieth sounds good. But he is 35, signed till 39, cap hit of $5.5M and the cost to acquire is not worth it. Blackhawks are not going to liquidate him in a trade value. They will want pry away factor and the Habs are not in position to make this kind of move. Keith does not put us into cup contender status.

So yeah, I like the idea but only if he was a UFA and the cost to acquire was cap space only. Even then, you need to be careful with players who were awesome before but are 35+ now.

 

[417]

The idea of adding Kieth sounds good. But he is 35, signed till 39, cap hit of $5.5M and the cost to acquire is not worth it. Blackhawks are not going to liquidate him in a trade value. They will want pry away factor and the Habs are not in position to make this kind of move. Keith does not put us into cup contender status.

So yeah, I like the idea but only if he was a UFA and the cost to acquire was cap space only. Even then, you need to be careful with players who were awesome before but are 35+ now.

I don't think it sounds good at all - I know there's a huge need on the left side of the D.

But I really don't think this is something that has to be fixed right away, the strength on the right side should be able to mask the weakness on the left side for the immediate future, in the meantime, it allows the team to see what they have with Reilly/Kulak.

The solution on the left is something that will have to be addressed more on a long term basis. Trading assets to try to permanently fix that hole is going to prove too costly and this team isn't at the point where liquidating assets is the thing to do.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think it sounds good at all - I know there's a huge need on the left side of the D.

But I really don't think this is something that has to be fixed right away, the strength on the right side should be able to mask the weakness on the left side for the immediate future, in the meantime, it allows the team to see what they have with Reilly/Kulak.

The solution on the left is something that will have to be addressed more on a long term basis. Trading assets to try to permanently fix that hole is going to prove too costly and this team isn't at the point where liquidating assets is the thing to do.

I understand and reflect the same concerns. Would you sign him as a UFA? Or you prefer to pass and target younger up and coming players instead?

I totally agree we should not mortgage our future for a age 35 defenseman.

 

[417]

I understand and reflect the same concerns. Would you sign him as a UFA? Or you prefer to pass and target younger up and coming players instead?

I totally agree we should not mortgage our future for a age 35 defenseman.

Isn't he signed for another 4-5yrs?

Either way, even if he was, no...that's probably not a player i'd target, he'd still be costly and you'd be paying a lot of money for reputation and past performance rather than future performance - not that he's not still a very good player mind you. But it's just not where the Habs are at IMO.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Isn't he signed for another 4-5yrs?

Either way, even if he was, no...that's probably not a player i'd target, he'd still be costly and you'd be paying a lot of money for reputation and past performance rather than future performance - not that he's not still a very good player mind you. But it's just not where the Habs are at IMO.

Yes, he's signed from 35 - 39. 5 more years including this year. The question was more about what you would do if he was a UFA this summer and you sort of answered it anyways. I tend to agree. Lets continue the youth movement. Keith don't help us win a cup

There are major risks acquiring a 35+ contract and mortgaging your future to acquire him. Habs are simply not in this position to make this kind of move. Even if we were in a better position, not sure we should do it anyways. It has major potential to back fire

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Name me the superstars on the last 10 Cup winning teams: Chicago, Pittsburgh, L.A. Washington, Boston. If our definitions of superstar are similar then you will find there weren't that many superstars on each of those teams.

Pittsburgh and Washington have generational players on them.
Chicago has at least three HOFers - perhaps more
LA has at least one HOFer and two more possible HOFers.

And note that those players were in their prime at the time and not on the back end of their careers.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

No way.

2012. Younger Price, PK, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Markov not much else from what I can remember.

That's a hell of a lot better than what we have now. Esp when you're forward looking.

 

[Sorinth]

No way.

2012. Younger Price, PK, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Markov not much else from what I can remember. Best prospects were whom exactly? LL? Tinordi? NB? 2012 draft sizzled out fairly quickly. Thrower and Collberg did nothing right from the get go. Bozon and Hudon looked good. Vail was okay.

2018 Older Price, Weber, Kotkaniemi, Domi, Drouin, Petry, Gallagher. Much better supporting cast up front. D's Prospect wise: Suzuki, Brook, Poehling, Fleury, Romanov a bunch of others who's early returns are looking much better than the

The roster is better and the prospects are better. Younger Price and PK aren't that much better than older Price and Weber. Not enough to make up for all the other players. I would be willing to put large sums of money that KK will completely eclipse Galchenyuk as a player. I really think people overrated that 2012 core. People keep looking back in hindsight like MB inherited a gold mine. Who thought that at the time? Everyone wanted Gauthier gone yet somehow he gifted his successor a Cup contending core.

Your analysis is flawed. You can't look at how one pool turned out and compare it to a pool where we don't know how things will turn out. You have to look at how the 2012 pool was viewed back in 2012. For example this list in April 2012 has Beaulieu as the 22nd best prospect league wide in 2012
Top 50: Klefbom's future looking bright - Hockey's Future

Post 2012 draft this place has
Galchenyuk - 33
Beaulieu - 35
Ranking Hockey's Top 50 Prospects After the 2012 NHL Draft

Compare that to this years post draft list that has
Kotkaniemi at 36 and Suzuki/Poehling not even listed
NHL prospect rankings: Top 50 players in NHL pipelines for 2018-19

It's certainly possible that our pool now turns out better then the 2012 pool, but when comparing how the pool was viewed back then vs how the current pool is viewed now, the edge goes to 2012.

 

[Rapala]

Imo, the hardest upcoming decision for MB involves positioning the Habs for the expansion draft.

If he does nothing, the Habs will almost certainly lose one of Petry, Juulsen, or Mete. He then gets to keep all three for the 2019 and 2020 playoff runs.

If Bergevin trades one of them, he gets an influx of young players and / or prospects and / or picks, the Habs will do less well in the next two playoffs, and will end up losing one of their third line forwards, perhaps Danault, Lehkonen, or Armia.

Not an obvious choice at all in my opinion.

I would aim to make these two players available (see bolded). I'd like Armia and Lehk sticking around to continue mentoring KK whose mother won't be here forever. As much as we hear Danault is a great defensive player I'm just not seeing it. We can and should do much better with a player of his ilk. This could change depending on personnel moves before that draft.

 

[Rapala]

Isn't he signed for another 4-5yrs?

Either way, even if he was, no...that's probably not a player i'd target, he'd still be costly and you'd be paying a lot of money for reputation and past performance rather than future performance - not that he's not still a very good player mind you. But it's just not where the Habs are at IMO.

What the heck is costly anymore its a huge bargain if we factor in what Alzner got.

 

[Cobra Commander]

I would aim to make these two players available (see bolded). I'd like Armia and Lehk sticking around to continue mentoring KK whose mother won't be here forever. As much as we hear Danault is a great defensive player I'm just not seeing it. We can and should do much better with a player of his ilk. This could change depending on personnel moves before that draft.

I think his mother left a long time ago, and we should probably keep Armia away from him on the ice, Byron is a MUCH better fit.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

That's a hell of a lot better than what we have now. Esp when you're forward looking.

A hell of a lot? I'd say it's at least debatable but Kotka looks much better than Galchenyuk did at the same age at a harder position. I'd rather have Domi and Drouin than Pacioretty. How much better was late career Markov than Petry? I'd still say better but Markov's lack of mobility in those last few years was a problem. Yes his intelligence made up for it and Petry can be really bad at times. I'd still give the nod to Markov but Petry's skating for our style of play is quite good.

Look at the supporting cast too. I even forgot to mention Mete and Juulsen. We were better defensively but WAY better up front. No contest. We have many viable prospects to improve our blue line.

And look at the prospects if you want to talk about going forward. Suzuki or Leblanc? Brook or Beaulieu? Poehling or Vail? Ylonen or Collberg? Romanov or Thrower? Fleury or Tinordi? Our prospects now are much much better. No contest.

Your analysis is flawed. You can't look at how one pool turned out and compare it to a pool where we don't know how things will turn out. You have to look at how the 2012 pool was viewed back in 2012. For example this list in April 2012 has Beaulieu as the 22nd best prospect league wide in 2012
Top 50: Klefbom's future looking bright - Hockey's Future

Post 2012 draft this place has
Galchenyuk - 33
Beaulieu - 35
Ranking Hockey's Top 50 Prospects After the 2012 NHL Draft

Compare that to this years post draft list that has
Kotkaniemi at 36 and Suzuki/Poehling not even listed
NHL prospect rankings: Top 50 players in NHL pipelines for 2018-19

It's certainly possible that our pool now turns out better then the 2012 pool, but when comparing how the pool was viewed back then vs how the current pool is viewed now, the edge goes to 2012.

It's not flawed so much as I can look at it through that lense. Well look above. Who would you take player for player? We can at least look at how those 2012 prospects were doing up until the same point of year we're at now in 2018. Collberg and Thrower were doing quite bad.

What's more flawed is using these prospect rankings when you can just compare player for player in their analogous positions and rankings like I did somewhat above. That would be more accurate not perfect of course but I'm way more pumped now than I was in '12. We're getting better early returns from these guys. I really don't think it's even close. It's significantly better now.

 

[Rapala]

I think his mother left a long time ago, and we should probably keep Armia away from him on the ice, Byron is a MUCH better fit.

I agree I was actually thinking more along the lines of the off ice comportment being a good pro etc.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Much ado about nothing. We will lose one player, and the teams we are competing with will also lose one player.

The smart GMs will make sure that the player lost is not one on a great contract, so at worst there will be cap space gained to replace the player, who by definition will be the fourth D or worse, OR the eight Fwd or worse ("or worse" because 1st and 2nd year pros are exempt) OR a backup goalie.

Every contending team will lose one player, relax!

Agreed, imo its a not a complete non issue, but it wouldn't be top priority on which way the team leans as far buying/selling etc goes. Would 100% be determined by the strength of our team when its time to make those decisions, ie trade deadline, ufa period etc.

I obviously wouldn't target a dman in attemptbto marginally improve this year unless I believe we have a shot or I determine the dman we are gaining is enough to offset the cost of the dman we lose. Its a concern, but not a big one IMO.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

A hell of a lot? I'd say it's at least debatable but Kotka looks much better than Galchenyuk did at the same age at a harder position. I'd rather have Domi and Drouin than Pacioretty. How much better was late career Markov than Petry? I'd still say better but Markov's lack of mobility in those last few years was a problem. Yes his intelligence made up for it and Petry can be really bad at times. I'd still give the nod to Markov but Petry's skating for our style of play is quite good.

Look at the supporting cast too. I even forgot to mention Mete and Juulsen. We were better defensively but WAY better up front. No contest. We have many viable prospects to improve our blue line.

Price, Max, Subban and Gallagher had their careers ahead of them. That right there puts us well ahead of where we are now.

Domi has had a great start to the season and may well turn out better than Paccioretty but his career has been underwhelming so far, ditto with Drouin. Kotka and Suzuki are exciting prospects... they are the best we have. You want to say Kotka is better than Galchenyuk? Okay... but we didn't have to pick Galchenyuk and we didn't have to mismanage him the way we did. That was a pure f***up on MB's part.

As for depth players, we had Eller and Beau two good young prospects we we badly mismanaged. We also had Markov who was arguably better than anyone we have right now (including Weber.)

We were way further ahead before because we had actual HOF caliber talent on the roster with two players being arguably best in the league at their respective positions. We don't any player who looks like they'll be that good on the way up. Our two best players now are in the 2nd half of their careers. And this team isn't going to win anything anytime soon. So we might as well leverage them for trade value.

 

[1909]

Your analysis is flawed. You can't look at how one pool turned out and compare it to a pool where we don't know how things will turn out. You have to look at how the 2012 pool was viewed back in 2012. For example this list in April 2012 has Beaulieu as the 22nd best prospect league wide in 2012
Top 50: Klefbom's future looking bright - Hockey's Future

Post 2012 draft this place has
Galchenyuk - 33
Beaulieu - 35
Ranking Hockey's Top 50 Prospects After the 2012 NHL Draft

Compare that to this years post draft list that has
Kotkaniemi at 36 and Suzuki/Poehling not even listed
NHL prospect rankings: Top 50 players in NHL pipelines for 2018-19

It's certainly possible that our pool now turns out better then the 2012 pool, but when comparing how the pool was viewed back then vs how the current pool is viewed now, the edge goes to 2012.

I think there is more talented young players now than few years ago.

 

[Sorinth]

I think there is more talented young players now than few years ago.

And back in 2012 did you think we had a bunch of young talented players or not?

 

[Sorinth]

A hell of a lot? I'd say it's at least debatable but Kotka looks much better than Galchenyuk did at the same age at a harder position. I'd rather have Domi and Drouin than Pacioretty. How much better was late career Markov than Petry? I'd still say better but Markov's lack of mobility in those last few years was a problem. Yes his intelligence made up for it and Petry can be really bad at times. I'd still give the nod to Markov but Petry's skating for our style of play is quite good.

Look at the supporting cast too. I even forgot to mention Mete and Juulsen. We were better defensively but WAY better up front. No contest. We have many viable prospects to improve our blue line.

And look at the prospects if you want to talk about going forward. Suzuki or Leblanc? Brook or Beaulieu? Poehling or Vail? Ylonen or Collberg? Romanov or Thrower? Fleury or Tinordi? Our prospects now are much much better. No contest.



It's not flawed so much as I can look at it through that lense. Well look above. Who would you take player for player? We can at least look at how those 2012 prospects were doing up until the same point of year we're at now in 2018. Collberg and Thrower were doing quite bad.

What's more flawed is using these prospect rankings when you can just compare player for player in their analogous positions and rankings like I did somewhat above. That would be more accurate not perfect of course but I'm way more pumped now than I was in '12. We're getting better early returns from these guys. I really don't think it's even close. It's significantly better now.

Except it's easy to say for example Ylonen will be better the Collberg because we know Collberg failed. But guess what, there's a very good chance that Ylonen will not be an NHL player too. That's why it's important to look at what they were back then, because we don't know which among the current crop will disappoint and bust, and I can guarantee you some of them will.

 

[Cobra Commander]

I agree I was actually thinking more along the lines of the off ice comportment being a good pro etc.

Agreed

 

[Kriss E]

TB has Hedman on their top pair...McDo-Stral on their 2nd..with a blue chip guy in Sergachev on bottom..with a better offensive group, and people here are talking about us possibly being a year from contention with Kulak and Reilly on our defense...closing this up with Schlemko and Mete/Juulsen...
We are so freaking far away it's not even funny. Wake up.

 

[ECWHSWI]

I guess people just have a grudge or something and want to see this team lose.

Everyone wanted a team that would be hard working, entertaining, that could score and never give up and now we have that team and fans want to dismantle it. I defy anyone to say they have not been entertained this year with this edition of the habs. How about fans reward the teams hard work with support for once.

Habs don't have any UFA so they don't need to dismantle the team this season in the risk of losing assets. How about let the season play out and see where things go and then in the off season the team can decide which direction to move forward on. Things will be a lot different if the team finishes 10th vs making the 3rd of the playoffs.

how about the fans get rewarded for spending hundreds for a game ?

FFS, the fans own to the team now ?? really ?? what exactly do I owe the team ?? do I Have to send them thank you cards for Christmas ?? a gift on each player birthday ??

can I write my own stuff in the card like, I dunno, "youre paid to entertain the fans, shut the f*** up and do that bitch!" ? good enough for ya ?