I think the need to use LTIR combined with a lack of waiver exempt players means that the Canucks will have a waiver wire problem at the end of training camp this year.
Most will be familiar, but at the end of training camp the normal rule is that a team must be cap compliant before putting a player on LTIR. They then get to exceed the cap by the amount by the cap hit of the player put on LTIR MINUS any amount that the team was under the cap before putting the player on LTIR.
Usually if a team is going to put a player on LTIR at the end of training camp they have some entry level players who they can paper down to the AHL to get down to the cap, then put a player on injured reserve with long term relief and recall the player(s) and do whatever juggling they want to do to get the roster they actually want on opening night.
The Canucks have almost few players who figure to make the opening night roster who will be waiver exempt. They also will want Podkolzin on the opening day roster so that after sending him down they can recall him without taking the full amount of his potential bonuses into account.
The cap is $83,500,000. The Canucks want to get down to 23 or fewer players and be at the cap or as close as they can to the cap while being under it on the first day of the season. Then they can put Poolman on LTIR and do their shuffling to the roster they really want.
Let's look at some players the Canucks may not want to lose, plus Poolman before he goes on LTIR:
Forwards: (12) Miller 8,000,000; Pettersson 7,350,000; Boeser 6,650,000; Kuzmenko 5,500,000; Garland 4,950,000; Mikheyev 4,750,000; Beauvilier 4,150,000; Blueger 1,900,000; Suter 1,600,000; Hoglander 1,100,000; Podkolzin 925,000; di Giuseppe 775,000 Total Forwards $47,650,000
Defence: (6) Hughes 7,850,000; Myers 6,000,000; Hronek 4,400,000; Soucy 3,250,000; Cole 3,000,000; Poolman (before LTIR) 2,500,000 Total Defence $27,000,000
Goalies (2) Demko 5,000,000; DeSmith 1,800,000 Total Goalies $6,800,000
Deferred bonuses from 2022-2023: $850,000
`really wants to start the season with. If he is not papered down then some additional player would need to be exposed to waivers (unless he simply replaces Podkolzin, which in view of the difference in their potential bonuses makes no sense to me.)
I am of the view that the Canucks won't want to lose any of those players this year except Poolman, who they're stuck with. I'll discuss changing the players they keep below.
That leaves the team about $1 million below the cap, so able to add one player but not two to these 20 players. It also leaves each of Wolanin, Brisebois, Studnicka and Joshua having to clear waivers and they only have room to keep one as an additional player on the roster to keep him from waivers. In this scenario they'd have to risk losing three of Wonanin, Brisebois, Studnicka and Joshua.
They could leave Podkolzin where he is presently assigned, to the AHL. That would allow them to avoid waiving one of the other players so they'd only have to risk losing two, but it would also leave them further from the cap before putting Poolman on LTIR so they'd be playing the season on a reduced salary cap and the way performance bonuses and LTIR interact (poorly) it would probably mean Podkolzin has to spend the season in the minors. That may or may not be best for his development but it certainly wouldn't be good for his mood and could lessen the likelihood he'll stay in North America instead of bolting for Europe next summer.
They could make changes to the low cost players they protect but any combination of players that I can come up leaves them waiving some players that I think the Canucks want to keep in the NHL this season.
One other possibility is to waive Tyler Myers. If he was claimed the Canucks would have lots of flexibility and wouldn't need LTIR. They would want to replace him-they are weak enough at RD with Myers and the position would be a huge hole if they lost him on waivers. There is a reasonable chance that he'd be claimed. Few teams have the cap space but among those that do and don't expect to exceed the cap this season the prospect of Myers for a salary of $1 million may be appealing.
If not claimed the Canucks would gain essentially nothing and have a very unhappy player (and maybe unhappy player's teammates.) The Canucks would probably keep him rather than gain the small amount of cap space they could hide by sending him to Abbotsford.
They could try waiving Boeser instead of Myers and if they lost him there would be weakness at RW but not as huge a hole as at RW if they lost Myers. The chances of Boeser being claimed are smaller-he may be more useful but there isn't a bonus already paid to reduce the claiming team's cash outlay, his pay and cap hit are higher than Myers' is and there is an additional year on his deal.
Of course, there is also the possibility of another trade, which probably Allvin will be looking for. If there is no trade, though, it is clear the Canucks will be exposing to waivers some members of the roster they want to keep. If any of those players are claimed the Canucks will have one or more holes to fill.
If they are going to risk losing players that would make their roster to waivers the question becomes when they do it. There are two things to consider here:
1. The best time to avoid losing the players;
2. The best time to replace the players if they are claimed on waivers.
The second of those considerations would suggest exposing whoever they will need to expose early to maximize their chances of finding players then placed on waivers by other teams. The first consideration probably would suggest waiting until the last day. It is a close decision whether to expose someone at the last minute to try to keep them or to do it earlier and then try to replace as necessary.
Most will probably be in favour of waiting until the last minute. Personally I'd go the other route and do it early enough to have a good chance of replacing whomever is lost, but it is an interesting gamble either way.
