Management Thread | The Song Remains the Same Edition

[andora]

Definitely seems like the type of team that should be able to turn it around in a hurry.

?

Did you quote the wrong person?

 

[Nucker101]

?

Did you quote the wrong person?

Not directed at you but wanted to quote those stats

 

[andora]

Not directed at you but wanted to quote those stats

Yeah fair enough..

Lots of goaltending red flags there and some interesting.. well.. positives i guess

If anything it should show the main point that should be focused on

Interestingly since tocchet they have improved to 20th in hdsc allowed while receiving the sixth worst sv% in that category

 

[sting101]

Our defense is worse this year because OEL and Myers have both got worse, the former with a pretty big drop off. We then added Stillman who really sucks and we play him a lot. We then lost Our defensive coach who seemed to be helping.

Demko was giving us unsustainable Vezina level goaltending. Even if his play didn’t drop off his save percentage would have fallen. But obviously his play regressed as well. Delia and Martin are also just bad goalies. But lots goes into having such a terrible team save percentage and goaltending is just a component.

Generally, I’d say there are three main components: non goalie personnel; coaching and goaltending.

All three of those significantly worsened this year.

i think there is more to it than just Myers OEL getting worse but with that chink in the armour it became a house of cards. Those 2 were put into a position where they needed to be better just to hold water and when they did in fact regress with the other circumstances and no one to give them any relief it became a disaster that couldn't be mitigated

Hughes didn't start the year very well. Dermott Poolman and Rathbone were supposed to provide decent depth and ended up being completely useless. Burroughs regressed badly after a decent 10 games or so. Stillman sucks in anything but a relief role. Demko was awful. Martin was worse we had guys like Horvat flying the zone looking to pad his numbers for his next big contract Miller Pearson and Boeser (probably BBs best line after taking over from Green) sucking/injured and generally speaking the commitment to defence from the captain on down became a joke.

 

[Nucker101]

Yeah fair enough..

Lots of goaltending red flags there and some interesting.. well.. positives i guess

If anything it should show the main point that should be focused on

Interestingly since tocchet they have improved to 20th in hdsc allowed while receiving the sixth worst sv% in that category

Yeah if we're being objective, essentially bad goaltending has made a bad team look even worse than it already is.

 

[valkynax]

Hmm, some rumors about trade interest surrounding Miller.

Is that something worth exploring?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Yeah fair enough..

Lots of goaltending red flags there and some interesting.. well.. positives i guess

If anything it should show the main point that should be focused on

Interestingly since tocchet they have improved to 20th in hdsc allowed while receiving the sixth worst sv% in that category

Woodley has said that the public xGA models don't really account for how awful the scoring chances we give are.

That matches my eye test. Not that my eye is worth crap.

 

[arttk]

Demko no. Decline for sure, but not to this point.

OEL. Yes.

I was shocked by how well he played his first year here. Or to be more specific, the defensive results we got with him.

He has been absolutely horrific for a good while in Arizona. His inability to pivot outside is not new. I have NO clue how it sort of worked out for his first year. From what I understand from my work about the human anatomy... it makes no sense.

I'll just give you guys this at this point since there is no point in debating it.

But thank god we didnt. Maybe we can now break out of the cycle of mediocrity.


At least there is now hope that they finally see what the team is and are abandoning the shortcuts.

We will see.

I mean if you projected Demko to decline because of ability and not injury then you are definitely in the minority.

I think a lot of us projected him to be even better and I think the “minor” surgery turned out to be more impactful than originally anticipated.

I thought I was the president of f*** OEL he sucks club but maybe you should be instead. I thought he sucked last season but didn’t think he would be this bad this season. I think the injury he suffered in the worlds really took out whatever mobility he has left. It’s hard to imagine him recovering to even last seasons form. He looks cooked.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I mean if you projected Demko to decline because of ability and not injury then you are definitely in the minority.

Majority are wrong then. There is a reason Carolina and other teams are moving to a replaceable goalie philosophy. The more old-school hockeyman teams will take longer to catch up.

There is 1 goalie in the league whose play doesnt fluctuate from year to year.

I think a lot of us projected him to be even better and I think the “minor” surgery turned out to be more impactful than originally anticipated.

That is wild.

I thought I was the president of f*** OEL he sucks club but maybe you should be instead. I thought he sucked last season but didn’t think he would be this bad this season. I think the injury he suffered in the worlds really took out whatever mobility he has left. It’s hard to imagine him recovering to even last seasons form. He looks cooked.

No he was pretty damn good last year.

Major reason for Bruce bump was that Myers & OEL were a NHL calibre matchup pair for that last half of the season.

 

[canucksfan]

Hmm, some rumors about trade interest surrounding Miller.

Is that something worth exploring?

Definitely. By the time the team is competitive Miller's contract will be horrible.

I mean if you projected Demko to decline because of ability and not injury then you are definitely in the minority.

I think a lot of us projected him to be even better and I think the “minor” surgery turned out to be more impactful than originally anticipated.

I thought I was the president of f*** OEL he sucks club but maybe you should be instead. I thought he sucked last season but didn’t think he would be this bad this season. I think the injury he suffered in the worlds really took out whatever mobility he has left. It’s hard to imagine him recovering to even last seasons form. He looks cooked.

Demko was playing at an unreal pace when Bruce took over. I think quite a few of us expected a minor decline in performance. His performance was significantly worse than expected though. However, a lot of people were stating a Demko or Hughes long-term injury likely results in a Nucks team that is close to the bottom and well, here we are.

 

[andora]

Woodley has said that the public xGA models don't really account for how awful the scoring chances we give are.

That matches my eye test. Not that my eye is worth crap.

Types of chances or number of chances

I was just discussing number

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Types of chances or number of chances

I was just discussing number

Oh sorry should have been more clear.

I think conventional statistics like high danger scoring chances, don't account for what we are putting our goalies through.

 

[Hodgy]

Hellebuyck's bad year that your brought up from last season was a 910... still above league average, and .006 down from the season before... that isn't showing a huge difference.

I agree coaching and OEL/Myers was worse, but the much bigger issue was the goaltending. We were

i think there is more to it than just Myers OEL getting worse but with that chink in the armour it became a house of cards. Those 2 were put into a position where they needed to be better just to hold water and when they did in fact regress with the other circumstances and no one to give them any relief it became a disaster that couldn't be mitigated

Hughes didn't start the year very well. Dermott Poolman and Rathbone were supposed to provide decent depth and ended up being completely useless. Burroughs regressed badly after a decent 10 games or so. Stillman sucks in anything but a relief role. Demko was awful. Martin was worse we had guys like Horvat flying the zone looking to pad his numbers for his next big contract Miller Pearson and Boeser (probably BBs best line after taking over from Green) sucking/injured and generally speaking the commitment to defence from the captain on down became a joke.

Ya. And this is my point that there are a ton of factors that went into the Canucks historically poor save percentage, not just are goalies being terrible. And the whole point is that one shouldn’t point solely at goaltending and excuse this year’s performance because the goaltending was so unforseeably terrible. Sure, there is some truth to it, but there were a ton of other foreseeable factors.

 

[andora]

Oh sorry should have been more clear.

I think conventional statistics like high danger scoring chances, don't account for what we are putting our goalies through.

So in theory alter the definition of a high danger chance or add a fourth category like.. i dont know breakdown chances or aomething.. red alarm chances..

I agree with the ambiguity of these stats

 

[Peter Griffin]

Hmm, some rumors about trade interest surrounding Miller.

Is that something worth exploring?

I think their plan all along was to get both Miller and Horvat signed, really doesn’t make any sense to keep one and move the other. Hopefully they’ve become more realistic in their ask and are more motivated to move on from the contract now as they should be.

 

[sting101]

Ya. And this is my point that there are a ton of factors that went into the Canucks historically poor save percentage, not just are goalies being terrible. And the whole point is that one shouldn’t point solely at goaltending and excuse this year’s performance because the goaltending was so unforseeably terrible. Sure, there is some truth to it, but there were a ton of other foreseeable factors.

i think they were considered they just couldn't do much about it once it started to waterfall. JR referenced the D needing players to stay healthy and goaltending needing to be what it had been.

I think given what was available last summer they were hoping to move some money and address it more this off season with a better UFA class

They gambled and lost big time they tied their own hands Miller Boeser Kuzmenko Beauvillier Michayev are all on them when they could have tried to maximize flexibility.

It's honestly for the best though. Other than Miller (which is a big other than) the standings and Horvat trade should help big time. I really hope they dont try and do anything short term that doesn't make longer term sense. Even the aformentioned players and contracts are better than the previous morons and should bring back assets if handled properly.

 

[racerjoe]

Ya. And this is my point that there are a ton of factors that went into the Canucks historically poor save percentage, not just are goalies being terrible. And the whole point is that one shouldn’t point solely at goaltending and excuse this year’s performance because the goaltending was so unforseeably terrible. Sure, there is some truth to it, but there were a ton of other foreseeable factors.

The issue is simple as you put it... it was foreseeable. No one expected us to have a good defence. And they are bad, but not even the worst in the NHL this season. This was totally expected. I don't think anyone thought they would be good.

Meanwhile did a single person see our goaltending being as bad as it has been?

Expectations matter in a discussion like this. We knew our defence would be bad and we thought with our normal goaltending we should be a middle of the pack team, fighting for the last wild card spot. Instead our goalies have been absolutely terrible, and our defence has been every bit as bad as expected.

 

[canucksfan]

The issue is simple as you put it... it was foreseeable. No one expected us to have a good defence. And they are bad, but not even the worst in the NHL this season. This was totally expected. I don't think anyone thought they would be good.

Meanwhile did a single person see our goaltending being as bad as it has been?

Expectations matter in a discussion like this. We knew our defence would be bad and we thought with our normal goaltending we should be a middle of the pack team, fighting for the last wild card spot. Instead our goalies have been absolutely terrible, and our defence has been every bit as bad as expected.

No one would have expected Demko to play this badly. However, many of us before the season started stated this team is a bottom team if Hughes or Demko get injured for a long time. The latter has happened. If you were to take a poll before the start of the season asking what the Nuck's record would be if Demko only played 26% of the games, I think the results would be close to where the Nucks are now.

 

[racerjoe]

No one would have expected Demko to play this badly. However, many of us before the season started stated this team is a bottom team if Hughes or Demko get injured for a long time. The latter has happened. If you were to take a poll before the start of the season asking what the Nuck's record would be if Demko only played 26% of the games, I think the results would be close to where the Nucks are now.

While thats fair, that doesn't explain the games he did play and where he was terrible.

 

[canucksfan]

While thats fair, that doesn't explain the games he did play and where he was terrible.

Agreed and I stated that in the first sentence of my post.

 

[arttk]

Definitely. By the time the team is competitive Miller's contract will be horrible.


Demko was playing at an unreal pace when Bruce took over. I think quite a few of us expected a minor decline in performance. His performance was significantly worse than expected though. However, a lot of people were stating a Demko or Hughes long-term injury likely results in a Nucks team that is close to the bottom and well, here we are.

I am not sure he played at an unreal pace, he basically did the same thing the season prior. BB did ride him hard and should’ve played Halak more but that’s the problem when you hire a coach that only cares about winning in the short term.

I agree, I think the team could not overcome any injury to Petey, Hughes or Demko. The projection was always based around them not getting hurt and playing at a level that is expected of them.

 

[arttk]

Majority are wrong then. There is a reason Carolina and other teams are moving to a replaceable goalie philosophy. The more old-school hockeyman teams will take longer to catch up.

There is 1 goalie in the league whose play doesnt fluctuate from year to year.

That is wild.

No he was pretty damn good last year.

Major reason for Bruce bump was that Myers & OEL were a NHL calibre matchup pair for that last half of the season.

i think it’s hard to pay more for a goalie that can play like 30-40 games when we are already paying Holtby and Halak this season.

I think it’s fine to take a pov where Demko would regress. But even then would you have projected to perform as the worst starter in the league? That’s the reality we are talking about. Nobody expected Demko to tank from Vezina level to backup level like that, that is like Jim Carrey stuff.

Looking back, it should be obvious that the reason for the drop in performance is due to his lingering knee issues but once again, it wasn’t communicated to anyone the severity or the impact of that injury.

 

[RebuildinVan]

Ya. And this is my point that there are a ton of factors that went into the Canucks historically poor save percentage, not just are goalies being terrible. And the whole point is that one shouldn’t point solely at goaltending and excuse this year’s performance because the goaltending was so unforseeably terrible. Sure, there is some truth to it, but there were a ton of other foreseeable factors.

Factors like the worst PK of all time costing 1 or 2 goals a game?

 

[canucksfan]

I am not sure he played at an unreal pace, he basically did the same thing the season prior. BB did ride him hard and should’ve played Halak more but that’s the problem when you hire a coach that only cares about winning in the short term.

I agree, I think the team could not overcome any injury to Petey, Hughes or Demko. The projection was always based around them not getting hurt and playing at a level that is expected of them.

He was 7-1-0 with a 1.72 goals-against average, a .946 save percentage and one shutout in December to earn NHL Third Star honors for the month. The 26-year-old hasn't lost since Bruce Boudreau replaced Travis Green as coach Dec. 5, going 7-0-0 with a 1.40 GAA and .955 save percentage; prior to that, he was 8-11-1 with a 2.97 GAA and a .908 save percentage.

He finished the season with .915 save percentage. From my recollection, he declined as the season went on likely due to being overplayed. I can't find the exact stats yet, but I think he had around .928 save %. His numbers were unreal under Bruce especially at the start as the article stats.

 

[arttk]

He was 7-1-0 with a 1.72 goals-against average, a .946 save percentage and one shutout in December to earn NHL Third Star honors for the month. The 26-year-old hasn't lost since Bruce Boudreau replaced Travis Green as coach Dec. 5, going 7-0-0 with a 1.40 GAA and .955 save percentage; prior to that, he was 8-11-1 with a 2.97 GAA and a .908 save percentage.

He finished the season with .915 save percentage. From my recollection, he declined as the season went on likely due to being overplayed. I can't find the exact stats yet, but I think he had around .928 save %. His numbers were unreal under Bruce especially at the start as the article stats.

I meant he wasn’t doing something that was completely out of expectation. Like he did something similar the year before and fans was looking at him to continue to improve since he had the tools, the toolbox and also the drive.

Like I said, based on what he did last season, most of us assumed that he would continue it because of his drive and work ethic.