Management Thread | Regular Season Edition

[bossram]

Thank you.

Agree about Seattle. Total wacked out contracts.



What's your thoughts on the Debrusk deal?

Absolutely no issue at all. I like the Debrusk target a lot. I made several posts previously about not paying $5-6M for the "2nd tier" forwards like Toffoli, Stephenson, Teravainen, etc. because they're not real needle-movers, there are some obvious risk factors in their performance, and the deals will just age badly. If we struck on Guentzel, I wanted to avoid these guys and just look at the Heinen/Sherwood class (which Allvin also did very well to get them on value contracts)

Debrusk was the one exception to this group for me. He is a "younger" UFA, so the age-related decline risk is mitigated. He's always had pretty strong two-way impacts and his ES P/60 scoring is at a near 1st line rate. His microstat profile is exactly what the Canucks need: He has some speed and chance creation on the rush (desperately, desperately needed), and he forechecks hard enough to fit in Tocc's system.

You can also envision a bull case with Debrusk where, given consistent top-six and PP1 time, he breaks out and really delivers a lot of value over the contract. I think this was the right "big-ticket" target.

 

[bossram]

But that wasn't the direction Allvin wanted to go? I assume that the priority was to re-sign Lindholm (or both Lindholm and Zadorov). When signing Lindholm wasn't possible the pivot was to re-sign Zadorov at up to $5M AAV (if the reports could be trusted). So it isn't like Allvin didn't want to re-sign Z at $5M AAV.

I actually think more resources need to be allocated to the defense. Right now, two of Soucy, Myers, Forbort, Desharnais, Juulsen/Friedman/former Abby Canuck need to play on our top 4. If one gets injured one from the group needs to step in/step up. This is definitely not the type of rebuilt blueline I want.

Allvin clearly had a max number in mind for each of Lindholm and Zadorov, and they thought they were worth more than that. Allvin didn't want to drastically overpay, so he pivoted directions. I'm glad he did. Massively overpaying mid-UFAs is a quick way to ruin your club. I think Allvin actually valued them too highly with some of the offers that were reported, but that's not really relevant to this discussion.

I've said before, I think the resources needed to be shifted toward the forward group, and I agree with the direction of this offseason. I also think the blueline needs some more mobility, but Allvin still has a little bit of flexibility, so I am willing to give him the benefit to see what shakes out or if he makes an in-season move (which he has shown he can do).

Here's my thoughts on the blueline construction from my discussion with @TruGr1t. I think management believes the types of defensemen they added mesh well with their system, and their defensive results were excellent last season.

Yeah, they found guys similar to what other teams are paying a premium on, for a discount. And they likely think they can fit into their system well.

Re: the bolded, IIRC reading an article by one of the then-blogger-now-NHL-team-analysts that forwards have a higher relative impact on the team's overall performance than forwards (intuitively makes sense, there are more forwards on the ice at all times). The conclusion of the piece was that it was better to have a stronger overall forward group, even if at the expense of the blueline. At the time, the cup-winning Pens kinda embodied that.

You also see it with the Panthers system. Most of the neutral zone burden and forechecking is on the forwards to chase pucks hard, pressure the opposition, and then funnel them into their "surfing" Ds for breakups (most of their D being pretty large as well). This is pretty similar to what the Canucks are trying to accomplish in their NZ forecheck. On DZ exits, the Panthers also don't put much burden on their D to make clean possession exits. They let them flip/rim pucks out and have the forwards contest up-ice. Again, quite similar to the Canucks (and why the Canucks don't have much of a rush game). Allvin/Tocc probably don't see the puck-moving limitations of the new guys as much of a liability, considering their system doesn't ask them to do it a ton.

 

[MS]

Teams that paid a ton of money on middle-of-the-lineup players *cough Seattle cough* made colossal mistakes.

I have absolutely no idea what Seattle is doing.

Like, they started with the half-ass Vegas model and it did get them the one playoff appearance but the wheels came off last year and that team sucks and has basically zero front-line players. There is nothing there in terms of age 21-30 assets - McCann, Dunn, and that's about it.

They do have a very deep system and it seems like a pretty obvious time to pivot and build around those young players, sign veterans to short-term deals to support them, build for 2027 or 2028.

Instead they committed $14 million to two middling age 30 players that are going to be OEL-type albatrosses when they actually want to compete in 3-4 years, and still probably aren't close to being a playoff team next year.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

I have absolutely no idea what Seattle is doing.

Like, they started with the half-ass Vegas model and it did get them the one playoff appearance but the wheels came off last year and that team sucks and has basically zero front-line players. There is nothing there in terms of age 21-30 assets - McCann, Dunn, and that's about it.

They do have a very deep system and it seems like a pretty obvious time to pivot and build around those young players, sign veterans to short-term deals to support them, build for 2027 or 2028.

Instead they committed $14 million to two middling age 30 players that are going to be OEL-type albatrosses when they actually want to compete in 3-4 years, and still probably aren't close to being a playoff team next year.

Reminds me of the Columbus Blue Jackets model from the 2000's.

 

[bossram]

I have absolutely no idea what Seattle is doing.

Like, they started with the half-ass Vegas model and it did get them the one playoff appearance but the wheels came off last year and that team sucks and has basically zero front-line players. There is nothing there in terms of age 21-30 assets - McCann, Dunn, and that's about it.

They do have a very deep system and it seems like a pretty obvious time to pivot and build around those young players, sign veterans to short-term deals to support them, build for 2027 or 2028.

Instead they committed $14 million to two middling age 30 players that are going to be OEL-type albatrosses when they actually want to compete in 3-4 years, and still probably aren't close to being a playoff team next year.

They want to be mediocre forever? Alright Francis, you do you.

Like you said, there was a path to being competitive right now with short-term veterans, while waiting for guys like Beniers, Wright, Catton, etc. to come along. They decided to light that on fire.

NHL GMs, what can you do?

 

[F A N]

I have been critical of Seattle from the start and surprised they were good that one year.

 

[mriswith]

The only conclusion is that Francis' job is on the hot seat. I bet ownership was expecting to be a lot more competitive upfront and are dissatisfied with the results.

I hope we are looking to take advantage if the wheels start to come off this season. The last 18 months of a GM's tenure is where they do the dumbest and most crippling moves and it'd be nice to be on this side of that kind of transaction for a change.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

The only conclusion is that Francis' job is on the hot seat. I bet ownership was expecting to be a lot more competitive upfront and are dissatisfied with the results.

It absolutely is. Seattle's season ticket base is eroding, they're getting NBA competition soon ... I figured they'd be in on some of the "name" UFAs - Stamkos, Marchessault, hell I thought they might even trade for Laine. All of which would have been better options than what they ended up doing.

A brutal situation. They're ~2 seasons away from being where San Jose was 2 years ago.

 

[TruGr1t]

Francis’ only job is to trade us Adam Larsson.