Management Thread | Blurst of Times

[pitseleh]

In Hronek's case, his zone exit numbers cratered when paired with Hughes, because of course he defers to the best zone exit guy in the NHL. Does that mean that Hronek is worse than when he was the primary puck mover on his pairing in Detroit? Absolutely not, but these graphs will now say he's shit at it.

In fairness, Hronek’s exit numbers were poor in Detroit too. I thought the same as you a while ago but Burke’s Evil Spirit posted a good article showing that wasn’t the case. He was like fourth or fifth on the Red Wings in controlled exits when he played there. Strong defensive impacts, strong work in the offensive zone, but average-ish in getting the puck out with control. I think that’s in part why he doesn’t do well with Soucy.

If the team is ok continuing to play Myers with Hughes, it’s why I think him and Pettersson could make a good pairing.

 

[pitseleh]

I am curious what a JFresh card would have said about the Sedins back in the day when they were running 55-60% xGF rates together but 40-45% xGF rates when apart.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I mostly just think once you’re slicing and dicing numbers below 20 game samples it starts to get pretty noisy and I would lean on the eye test more heavily. He’s got great numbers outside of a handful of games when he was coming back from injury and playing with arguably the worst defender on the team. I’m inclined to chalk that up to health/partner.

Fair enough, I would prefer the bigger samples (31 and 81 games from last year) and not controlling for his worst partner(s).

The eye test shows me he's not generating enough offensive events that would suggest he's a strong #3 Dman carrying a weaker partner. What I see is Forbort has stabilized the bottom end of his play, unlike Soucy, which has allowed him to get close to even on the 2nd pair, but still not a net positive.

What I didn't account for is non-standard partners like Brannstrom and Myers (primarily) buoying his xGF% in the 1/3rd block of minutes that does not include Hughes, Soucy and Forbort.

The problem with last year is that he was clearly injured down the stretch. I don’t know exactly when he got hurt but picking an arbitrary date he posted a 49% xGF rate in 251 minutes without Hughes before January 31 and a 41% xGF rate in 111 minutes without Hughes after January 31.

Then factor in he got 31% ozone starts when he wasn’t playing with Hughes vs 65% when he was. I think zone starts tend to be an overrated factor but when you have big splits like that it is going to knock down your percentages by a couple percentage points.

Is that noise, a drop off in performance, something else? Personally, watching him I didn’t think he was great last year, and really wished we could have seen more with him away from Hughes to make a better judgment on him. I think the JFresh chart is a bit tough on him due to the injury impact. But I’d agree it is directionally correct.

But this season I’ve thought he’s largely been very good and don’t have the same concerns I did last year.

A #3 Dman is my bar for him away from Hughes. In that regard, he hasn't met expectations last year or this year. When he's looked good with Forbort, he's sawing off minutes with him (44.83 xGF%), not leading that pair forward. That's my concern.

Even if that JFresh chart is hard on him due to injury, it lightens the critique on him too by incorporating his minutes with Hughes... 4/5ths of his minutes buoyed by the 65% Ozone starts you reference, still 58% WAR rating and below the 50% EV threshold in Offense and Defense... Not good. (But thank you for at least acknowledging the chart)

This year and last year look pretty similar in terms of non-Hughes minute xGF% (incorporating Soucy for both). His counting stat rate is dropped to the lowest in 5 years too. And so, the eye test is the last best argument for him... And I don't think that's enough.

We should all expect his play to bear out in the numbers across the two years.

 

[ExarKun80]

The heavy lifting on D is . . . mission accomplished

The heavy lifting on top6 C has . . . just begun

There is also a need for a serious winger. What we have now is not going to cut it. Brock and DeBrusk are too streaky. You can't rely on guys who score in bunches for 4-5 games and then go 10-15 without a goal.

Using last year as any sort of evaluation is a mistake since it was an aberation just like Jimbo's bubble. Management fell for it and downgraded the defence thinking that our offence+Demko will make up for it and here we are.