I mostly just think once you’re slicing and dicing numbers below 20 game samples it starts to get pretty noisy and I would lean on the eye test more heavily. He’s got great numbers outside of a handful of games when he was coming back from injury and playing with arguably the worst defender on the team. I’m inclined to chalk that up to health/partner.
Fair enough, I would prefer the bigger samples (31 and 81 games from last year) and not controlling for his worst partner(s).
The eye test shows me he's not generating enough offensive events that would suggest he's a strong #3 Dman carrying a weaker partner. What I see is Forbort has stabilized the bottom end of his play, unlike Soucy, which has allowed him to get close to even on the 2nd pair, but still not in a net positive.
What I didn't account for is non-standard partners like Brannstrom and Myers (primarily) buoying his xGF% in the 1/3rd block of minutes that does not include Hughes, Soucy and Forbort.
The problem with last year is that he was clearly injured down the stretch. I don’t know exactly when he got hurt but picking an arbitrary date he posted a 49% xGF rate in 251 minutes without Hughes before January 31 and a 41% xGF rate in 111 minutes without Hughes after January 31.
Then factor in he got 31% ozone starts when he wasn’t playing with Hughes vs 65% when he was. I think zone starts tend to be an overrated factor but when you have big splits like that it is going to knock down your percentages by a couple percentage points.
Is that noise, a drop off in performance, something else? Personally, watching him I didn’t think he was great last year, and really wished we could have seen more with him away from Hughes to make a better judgment on him. I think the JFresh chart is a bit tough on him due to the injury impact. But I’d agree it is directionally correct.
But this season I’ve thought he’s largely been very good and don’t have the same concerns I did last year.
A #3 Dman is my bar for him away from Hughes. In that regard, he hasn't met expectations last year or this year. When he's looked good with Forbort, he's sawing off minutes with him (44.83 xGF%), not leading that pair forward. That's my concern.
Even if that JFresh chart is hard on him due to injury, it lightens the critique on him too by incorporating his minutes with Hughes... 4/5ths of his minutes buoyed by the 65% Ozone starts you reference, still 58% WAR rating and below the 50% EV threshold in Offense and Defense... Not good. (But thank you for at least acknowledging the chart)
This year, we have to grant leeway for injury and Soucy, but his sans Hughes xGF% rating is pretty close over each (46.83% (TY) and 46.58% (LY)). If it's noise and/or injury, it's that for both. And if it's neither, then the eye test and 1/3rd min bolster by Myers and Brannstrom comprise the difference.
