Management Discussion | Just Have a Plan

[vancityluongo]

haha, let's add some more vibes (all goalie stuff is vibes anyways) fwiw

 

[Peen]

haha, let's add some more vibes (all goalie stuff is vibes anyways) fwiw

I literally gave us +10 GSAA which would be top ten but that wasn’t good enough for MS.

 

[vancityluongo]

Our goaltending hasn't even been that much worse than the teams we are "competing" for playoffs spots for either. The 4 worst team save percentages are in the Pacific and the average for the division is .890. 8 of the 20 (and 7 of the bottom 10) worst goals saved above expected are in the Pacific, and 14 of the 30 negative goalies in that stat ar in the Pacific.

Jacob Markstrom has a .894 behind a good defensive Sutter coached team...

41 year old Craig Anderson has a .921 save percentage in 15 games for Buffalo while their other goalie (Luukkonen) has a .897...

This shit happens with non-HHOF goalies.

Again, Demko will (probably) regress back to a normal level next year. But so will Horvat...

 

[Peen]

Well league wide sv% has dropped considerably. Pretty sure the average is almost down .015 Points. The top team other then the Bruins is at .916.

Also Vancouver is at .879 the Kings are .882

The Canucks stopped picks at .900 on the Canadian division season.

I think people probably overrated Demko.


Also the Canucks xGA this season would’ve been the worst (or bottom 2) last season.

Bad defence with a style that cheats for offence.

I don’t think so.

Demko’s bubble performance was probably the best short sample of goaltending I have ever seen behind Tim Thomas’ 2011 playoff run.

He played well the following two years behind a bad defensive team. Easily a top ten goalie in that time frame.

Awful this year. Horrible. But he had surgery and the team started flat.

I think the bigger worry is just his body. He had concussion problems and he’s had some lower body problems. Both worrying. If they think this could be a Schneider 2015 onwards situation, you dump him. If you don’t think injuries are a factor, you bet the house on a big bounce back under a new coach and refreshed blueline.

 

[wonton15]

Rest in peace Gino. I do love how Aquilini has protected all his tweets so no one can reply to him now. Clearly does see all the noise.

 

[racerjoe]

We have received really bad goaltending. We have also given up extremely dangerous chances that are going to be difficult for any goaltender to stop and that has caved our save %. It's not some weird coincidence that our two goalies who were very good to great last year have both been terrible. I think you are understating the impact of the defensive play.

The goaltending and defense have both been very bad. Nobody should be arguing otherwise. Unfortunately now we are just at a "confirmation bias" standstill because people are firmly planted that their pre-season prediction was correct and if it's incorrect it can be explained away.

I will say this: I don't think this team is good. The roster is flawed and I've said it since the off-season, as have many others. That being said, this team is better than they were last year on paper and are worse in the standings - and the goaltending is a big part of why they are where they are. But my honest opinion is this is the worst defense I've seen them play in many, many years. The quality of the chances given up just seems insane to me and maybe the analytics don't fully back that up.. but that's what I'm seeing.

You know we had 3 goalies last year right?

I don't think at least for me it is confirmation bias and I need to be correct, I have stated I am wrong a few times in this thread, and I am prepared to be wrong more.

Just compare last years team to this years. Did our defence get worse than last year? Sure. Did this effect our goaltending? Sure. Did this make our goaltending drop like it has? Nope. Our goaltending last year masked so many problems, and I am sure it would have this year as well if it was as good.

Note the key phrase, mask so many problems.

 

[sting101]

You can justify the other deals pretty easily - Miller was 8th in NHL scoring last year, Mikheyev has been very solid value - and if they hadn't done the absolutely idiotic Boeser contract you could still tie everything together pretty easily.

And even if they just gave Boeser a one-year 'prove it' deal, it would still be fine and there would be financial flexibility when we said bye-bye to him this summer. But giving that deal for 3 years to a soft, slow complementary scorer was absolutely absurd.

Yes that one was a killer if they cant trade him. They obviously gambled he would rebound and got swayed by who he is a person vs hockey player and impact

Almost 7 million would be huge for revamping this roster especially given you could put Podkolzin or Hoglander in his spot and other than a bit of production you would have a better 200ft player with some seasoning

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Honestly, what is best case scenario for this team?

If:

1. Demko returns to play as a Top 5-10 goalie
2. The PP runs Top 5-10 in the league
3. The PK operates at even a slightly respectable level

Then what? Playoffs?

Possibly. Probably likely given the division.

But what is that? Maybe 2 or 3 in the division?

I’d bet money on any of Vegas, LA or Seattle (least right now) beating Van in a first round matchup.

Edm and Cal are going in circles.

SJ and Ana blow. Maybe Ana could turn things around but they have been all kinds of awful.

So to me, best case scenario, is making the playoffs to eventually lose in the 1st round.

That should not be the goal.

But unfortunately, deluded ownership and mgmt think otherwise.

 

[sting101]

I'll put this in the a management thread because it relates to contracts and who to trade...

Full disclosure, I am a big Horvat fan but have clearly stated in other threads that he needs to be traded, for the reasons others have stated repeatedly. That said, it kinda irks me that he picks this year to go on a heater. Some guys (I don't know why Alex Mogilny comes to mind) one expects to have a great offensive year in their contract year. For others, like Horvat, one expects (maybe hopes) that they will be in 100% try mode every year. While it's fun to watch Horvat score, part of me is disappointed that his level up year is a contract year. Is it simply a coincidence that it's a contract year. Maybe but highly unlikely.

Do I blame him if he's extra motivated to cash in? Reluctantly I say, not really. Ultimately it's just human nature (and prudent career management) to make as much for as long as possible. But it does send a message to other younger players that it's more about the individual than the team. And it takes a little bit of the shine off of Horvat's warrior image.

well said and it also pisses me off that they are asking for money relating to and exceeding Miller

Miller obviously is a hired gun he's American wasn't drafted or developed here it was most certainly gonna be about giving him a good for the player contract. He's produced at a 85 p/82 pace since arriving in Van and is making 8 million

Horvat meanwhile is our damn captain a career Canuck has been heavily criticized for not sticking up for his teammates or showing emotion in the past when it was needed and has even including his heater this year averaged 64 p/82 over the same duration

Basically extrapolating what Miller has been paid at a 94.117 per point basis Horvat should get 6.023 million yet here we are

8 million.....see ya

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

well said and it also pisses me off that they are asking for money relating to and exceeding Miller

Miller obviously is a hired gun he's American wasn't drafted or developed here it was most certainly gonna be about giving him a good for the player contract. He's produced at a 85 p/82 pace since arriving in Van and is making 8 million

Horvat meanwhile is our damn captain a career Canuck has been heavily criticized for not sticking up for his teammates or showing emotion in the past when it was needed and has even including his heater this year averaged 64 p/82

Basically extrapolating what Miller has been paid at a 94.117 per point basis Horvat should get 6.023 million yet here we are

8 million.....see ya

It honestly does make me question that players on the team do not have their priorities straight wrt playing on the team. The comedown for Miller especially. Makes me feel like we should just sign everyone to 1-year contracts if this is how they play when money is on the line and not glory.

 

[Nucker101]

It honestly does make me question that players on the team do not have their priorities straight wrt playing on the team. The comedown for Miller especially. Makes me feel like we should just sign everyone to 1-year contracts if this is how they play when money is on the line and not glory.

Honestly it feels like most of the forwards on this team are just playing to pad their stats, either that's somewhat true or they're just brutal defensively and lack hockey sense. EP is the one guy who constantly plays hard at both ends, the rest of the top 9 forwards all have disconnected controller and blowing the zone early moments. Even a guy like Mikheyev who was brought in as a defensive forward

 

[TruGr1t]

It honestly does make me question that players on the team do not have their priorities straight wrt playing on the team. The comedown for Miller especially. Makes me feel like we should just sign everyone to 1-year contracts if this is how they play when money is on the line and not glory.

How often does giving the 30-year old the retirement contract off a peak season actually work out? The Canucks effectively paid over the probable UFA rate to convince Miller to stay.

Dumb decision making all around. They should have cut bait when he asked for ~$8MM on term. He’s the type of guy you try to retain on a contender by convincing him to take hometown discount.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

How often does giving the 30-year old the retirement contract off a peak season actually work out? The Canucks effectively paid over the probable UFA rate to convince Miller to stay.

Dumb decision making all around. They should have cut bait when he asked for ~$8MM on term. He’s the type of guy you try to retain on a contender by convincing him to take hometown discount.

Yeah I would have punted a fair bit of value. Especially with hindsight being we could have parlayed Lundkvist into another 1st rounder if need be. But that's why they call it hindsight.

 

[sting101]

It honestly does make me question that players on the team do not have their priorities straight wrt playing on the team. The comedown for Miller especially. Makes me feel like we should just sign everyone to 1-year contracts if this is how they play when money is on the line and not glory.

yes its absurd and you got cheerleaders like fourtwenty who think because the cap is going up he's on a career season he's entitled to it. But he also cheered and supported Marners deal so who cares about team success and spreading it around just get your PP regular season pts and cash in baby.

Meanwhile even in Edmonton Ryan Nugent Hopkins and his 66 p/82 over the 4 years leading to his UFA deal takes 6.29 % of the cap and takes 76,492 per point

It looks more to me like Horvat is just forcing his way out and showing that he was/is truly a shit captain that left a lot on the table most nights if they do in fact go this route

 

[VanJack]

Is see Craig Button has unloaded on Rutherford and the Canucks for job they've done on roster assembly. He regards the forced trade of Horvat as an epic 'fail' by the organization.

One thing is for certain.....the dysfunction at the junction in Vancouver is the talk of the NHL. It just seems that with COVID fiasco two years ago; followed by the mass firing early last season; and graduating to this year's mess in the coaching department and in the front office, this franchise is becoming the butt of jokes and black humor.

But it starts at the top--with vain, vacuous and venal ownership.

 

[Hansen]

Honestly, what is best case scenario for this team?

If:

1. Demko returns to play as a Top 5-10 goalie
2. The PP runs Top 5-10 in the league
3. The PK operates at even a slightly respectable level

Then what? Playoffs?

Possibly. Probably likely given the division.

But what is that? Maybe 2 or 3 in the division?

I’d bet money on any of Vegas, LA or Seattle (least right now) beating Van in a first round matchup.

Edm and Cal are going in circles.

SJ and Ana blow. Maybe Ana could turn things around but they have been all kinds of awful.

So to me, best case scenario, is making the playoffs to eventually lose in the 1st round.

That should not be the goal.

But unfortunately, deluded ownership and mgmt think otherwise.

Demko coming back to form is imperative to taking advantage of any sort of window that exists. Otherwise we're stuck in mediocrity (and without serious changes to our defense we probably are anyways)

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Is see Craig Button has unloaded on Rutherford and the Canucks for job they've done on roster assembly. He regards the forced trade of Horvat as an epic 'fail' by the organization.

One thing is for certain.....the dysfunction at the junction in Vancouver is the talk of the NHL. It just seems that with COVID fiasco two years ago; followed by the mass firing early last season; and graduating to this year's mess in the coaching department and in the front office, this franchise is becoming the butt of jokes and black humor.

But it starts at the top--with vain, vacuous and venal ownership.

What do you think they should do to improve the situation, @VanJack? If you were GM, what would you propose?

 

[arttk]

Is see Craig Button has unloaded on Rutherford and the Canucks for job they've done on roster assembly. He regards the forced trade of Horvat as an epic 'fail' by the organization.

One thing is for certain.....the dysfunction at the junction in Vancouver is the talk of the NHL. It just seems that with COVID fiasco two years ago; followed by the mass firing early last season; and graduating to this year's mess in the coaching department and in the front office, this franchise is becoming the butt of jokes and black humor.

But it starts at the top--with vain, vacuous and venal ownership.

Well when things aren’t going well everything looks like a mess. You start winning then you become a model franchise. Just look at Sakic and the Avs.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Well when things aren’t going well everything looks like a mess. You start winning then you become a model franchise. Just look at Sakic and the Avs.

It's a results-driven business so...yeah? I mean that's kinda like saying water is wet lol.

What's more interesting is Button gave Benning so many passes year after year when it wasn't working.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

It's a results-driven business so...yeah? I mean that's kinda like saying water is wet lol.

What's more interesting is Button gave Benning so many passes year after year when it wasn't working.

Water isn’t wet. It makes other things wet. Water is probably my closest biological comparison in that regard.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Water isn’t wet. It makes other things wet. Water is probably my closest biological comparison in that regard.

They say humans are 90% water. I'm living proof this is not true because I've never made anyone wet in my life. Now hypotheti- - Ben Shapiro

 

[TruGr1t]

Boeser should ask himself just how bad you have to look for you to have effectively negative value despite putting up 26 points in 39 games.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

Boeser should ask himself just how bad you have to look for your to have effectively negative value despite putting up 26 points in 39 games.

Now now, Brock has had a hard year every year since years became official.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I'm with MS here. Guys, take a look at some goalie analytics. The Canucks probably have the worst goaltending in the league this season. It's really bad. Martin and Demko have a combined -25 goals saved above expected (or in other words 25 goals saved under expected I guess). Only the Sharks goaltending is worse (Reimer and Kahkonen with a combined -28.3).

That is because xGA does not account for preshot movement in any meaningful way.

Boeser should ask himself just how bad you have to look for your to have effectively negative value despite putting up 26 points in 39 games.

Brock is doubling his career average 2nd assist per 60 rate this year.

Just puck luck.

I think it is a stat even the oldest of old school GMs will be aware of.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I literally gave us +10 GSAA which would be top ten but that wasn’t good enough for MS.

Isn't it weird how all those goalies play on teams that are garbage defensively?

Why would the worst goaltenders just happen to be playing on the worst defensive teams in the league? Odd...