Value of: Malkin for Monahan

[blankall]

Age 34-35:
S. Yzerman - 79 points, 52 points (in 54 gp)
J. Sakic - 87 points, (lockout - no season)
M. Modano - (lockout - no season), 77 points
T. Selanne - (lockout - no season), 90 points
P. Datsyuk - 49 points (in 47 gp), 37 points (in 45 gp)
J. Thornton - 76 points, 65 points
M. St. Louis - 94 points, 99 points
D. Alfredsson - 87 points, 89 points
M. Sundin - 78 points, 76 points
J. Jagr - 96 points, 71 points

Looks to me that the majority of former elite players who were still playing when they were 34/35 years old still put up more than your 60 point projection for Malkin.

Health is the *only* reason Malkin might not be a point per game guy when he's 34/35 years old. If he's able to play close to a full season, there is zero reason to believe he can't do what the guys I listed above did.

Ahh...so now all we have to do is recreate the conditions that the 90s superstars all aged in. The game has changed. The talent parity between the superstars and the average joe, isn't what it was. You cannot get away with losing a step. You also fail to point out that these players going to 77 points was a huge drop off, as guys like Yzerman had a peak of 155 points. Part of that was changes in the game, but another part was decreased physical abilities and injuries associated with age and wear and tear.

Even then, care to put some of those great seasons in context for the rest of us.

Modano's 77 point season was straddled between a 44 and a 43 point season.

Jagr drops to 71 points, but that ties him for 33rd overall, which is the equivalent in today's game of 62 points. That's exactly where I said Malkin would be at that age...assuming he stays healthy.

You've also referenced several players with 50 or so points in 50 or so games played. That in no way helps your argument for Malkin. I'd rather have Monahan playing every night, than an aging superstar who only plays 50 games a season.

The overall point is this. Malkin's best remaining years will be in the next 2-3 years. That has no value to the Flames, who are not competing right now. In a vacuum the trade is good. For the Flames it isn't.

 

[blankall]

Any argument that applies to a Malkin regression also applies to Crosby and Letang, as they've all had considerable injury histories and are all abut the same age.

We'd better dump 'em all for whatever we can get.

It's more an issue of the Flames, who are rebuilding, not wanting to trade their 21 year old #1 centre for players on the wrong side of 30.

Crosby would be an exception obviously.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Why does Calgary want 30 year old Malkin?

Because he's light years better than Monahan. Pens say no.

 

[blankall]

4 years of Malkin from 30 to 34 > Monahan's entire career

Please just stop.

Monahan was 13th overall in scoring for centres and is only 21. Malkin was 26th...

Yes I realize Malkin missed games due to injuries, but that's not a plus for us. If we put all of our eggs in the Malkin basket, we don't have a Crosby to back him up when he goes down. We need a #1 centre who can play every night.

I don't disagree that Malkin is the better and more valuable player now, but that won't be true in 3 years.

 

[blankall]

Because he's light years better than Monahan. Pens say no.

Pens are in win now mode, as Crosby is also about to turn 30. I can see why this doesn't make sense for them either.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Pens are in win now mode, as Crosby is also about to turn 30. I can see why this doesn't make sense for them either.

As well as Letang and Kessel turning towards that age. Fleury too. They can still make another cup run though.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Pens are in win now mode, as Crosby is also about to turn 30. I can see why this doesn't make sense for them either.

Yeah i agree, this trade doesn't make sense for either team. Pens goal should be nothing other than winning the cup over the next 3-4 years, and Malkin is the guy they need over Monahan in that time frame. Calgary's projection is a bit more long term. They could certainly be a contender by then, but their window might also not open until Malkin is in a big decline.

 

[blankall]

As well as Letang and Kessel turning towards that age. Fleury too. They can still make another cup run though.

They can probably make 3-4 cup runs. Maybe more if they get lucky and a few prospects develop into high end players.

In other words, unless Malkin asks to be traded, they keep him.They need to throw everything they can behind their current team.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

As well as Letang and Kessel turning towards that age. Fleury too. They can still make another cup run though.

No Flames fans are saying the Penguins would trade Malkin. We are saying it makes no sense to trade one of the best young centers in the league for an upgrade with a player that's like 10 years older.

Would the Colts trade Luck for Brady? Of course they wouldn't.

 

[stepdad gaary]

neither team wants this. We should close it

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It's more an issue of the Flames, who are rebuilding, not wanting to trade their 21 year old #1 centre for players on the wrong side of 30.

Crosby would be an exception obviously.

I don't have a problem with that, since I have no desire to trade Malkin and I don't get off on other people coveting my team's players. I just have a problem with your concrete regression idea.

Why exactly would Crosby be an exception? Is he immune to your formula?

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

I prefer seeing how Monahan turns out as he is younger+cheaper, but if traded for each other I would be excited to see how Malkin would look to shift to RW to be our Hossa for Bennett.

Tkachuk-Bennett-Malkin
Gaudreau-Jankowski-X
Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer
Ferland-Stajan-Hathaway

Actually looks pretty dominant a top 12 to me. Could contend. Fill X internally with Shinkaruk or Pribyl or Poirier.

I don't have a problem with that, since I have no desire to trade Malkin and I don't get off on other people coveting my team's players. I just have a problem with your concrete regression idea.

Why exactly would Crosby be an exception? Is he immune to your formula?

Crosby is still on the right side of 30

 

[blankall]

I don't have a problem with that, since I have no desire to trade Malkin and I don't get off on other people coveting my team's players. I just have a problem with your concrete regression idea.

Why exactly would Crosby be an exception? Is he immune to your formula?

Crosby's style of play is less reliant on physical prowess than Malkin's. Malkin's game relies much more on speed and athleticism than Crosby.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

The overall point is this. Malkin's best remaining years will be in the next 2-3 years. That has no value to the Flames, who are not competing right now. In a vacuum the trade is good. For the Flames it isn't.

Not going to bother with the other stuff in your quote because it just seems you're moving the goal posts from your original statement, so I'll just focus on this part.

Of course Malkin's best seasons will be done within the next couple of seasons. Malkin's best seasons are probably already over. He's probably not going to return to the 50 goal, 100+ point form we saw when he won the Hart and Art Ross in 2011.

The discussion isn't about whether Malkin is still as good as he was in his prime/peak, we're talking about exactly how far his play will drop, and whether that will mean he'll be on par with Monahan's production or not when Malkin is aged 34 or 35.

In that context, a point per game Malkin (which is what he'll likely be in his mid-thirties) is still a superior player to whatever Monahan ends up being. I mean, you're acting like Monahan's got Eichel-like potential, when in fact Monahan's basically been a 60 point guy (give or take another half dozen points) the last couple of years. Why are you assuming he'll blossom into a 70 or more point guy? Just because he's young? There's also a limit to his upside, too.

So assuming a 34 or 35 year old Malkin "declines" to a 70 point guy, which is well below what he is now, that's still likely going to be superior to Monahan at his best.

I also don't agree that Calgary can't use Malkin because they're not in "win now" mode. If things go right for them, the Flames should be contenders within the next 2 or 3 seasons. Malkin's still going to be a 70-80 point guy in that time frame. He's going to provide more than Monahan does during that time.

I get that fans want to believe their young players will just keep on improving by 10 points every season, but a lot of time that doesn't happen. I think Monahan might hit 70+ in a career season, but I'd be surprised if he has the overall ability to be a regular 70 point guy. Malkin, on the other hand, has proven he's much more than a 70 point guy, even when you factor in a bit of a decline.

 

[BostonBob]

I don't get off on other people coveting my team's players.

Well that's just some great information to know.

 

[DJJones]

I prefer seeing how Monahan turns out as he is younger+cheaper, but if traded for each other I would be excited to see how Malkin would look to shift to RW to be our Hossa for Bennett.

Tkachuk-Bennett-Malkin
Gaudreau-Jankowski-X
Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer
Ferland-Stajan-Hathaway

Actually looks pretty dominant a top 12 to me. Could contend. Fill X internally with Shinkaruk or Pribyl or Poirier.



Crosby is still on the right side of 30

Why would you move Malkin to the wing? I say let Malkin do his thing and carry the second line like he's used to. Stick him with the rookies and see some magic

Gaudreau - Bennett - Brouwer
Tkachuk - Malkin - Shinkaruk
Bouma - Backlund - Frolik
Ferland - Jankowski - Hathaway

Stajan sticks out like a sore thumb still. Leaving him off haha

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

In that context, a point per game Malkin (which is what he'll likely be in his mid-thirties) is still a superior player to whatever Monahan ends up being. I mean, you're acting like Monahan's got Eichel-like potential, when in fact Monahan's basically been a 60 point guy (give or take another half dozen points) the last couple of years. Why are you assuming he'll blossom into a 70 or more point guy? Just because he's young? There's also a limit to his upside, too.

The reason Monahan has untapped potential is because his skating has been very much a work-in-progress since his draft. He took a big step forward after his rookie season. His sophomore season ended on May 10th, which is a good month longer than most 20-year-old developing players' seasons end. That extra month can go a long way for off-season training, which he definitely needed. His end-to-end play has a ton of potential to grow because of his still-developing skating ability.

There's also the fact that he's gotten off to relatively slow starts in both 2014-15 and 2015-16 and finished both seasons at PPG paces (20G/17A/38GP in 2014-15, 13G/21A/32GP in 2015-16).

While it's not unusual for players to have hot streaks and cold streaks throughout a season, he certainly hasn't played at a consistent 82 game level typical of veterans, yet.

Why would you move Malkin to the wing?

Because Tkachuk-Bennett-Malkin would be in the running for the best line in the NHL. You could never key in on Johnny's line.

 

[DJJones]

Because Tkachuk-Bennett-Malkin would be in the running for the best line in the NHL.

Even with that line I would move Bennett to the wing.

 

[wgknestrick]

If the best package the Pens could get for Malkin is just Monahan now, then PIT needs to get another GM. This deal will start to be fair trade in 2 years.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Well that's just some great information to know.

Look around these threads and tell me it isn't the norm.

Crosby's style of play is less reliant on physical prowess than Malkin's. Malkin's game relies much more on speed and athleticism than Crosby.

I don't buy that for a second. One of Crosby's biggest advantages has been the precision and speed of his execution. You see it when he regularly cuts back on defenders at a breakneck pace and leaves them a step behind.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Even with that line I would move Bennett to the wing.

Why? Putting your best offensive forward and goal scorer Malkin on wing gives him more room to score in transition, Bennett is already more successful at faceoffs and should only get better, and this lets Bennett set up Malkin for those right-circle one-timers he's so good at.

Malkin is an awesome centre, but when he gets put on Crosby's wing he shows he's an even better winger. Bennett is no crosby but stylewise he actually resembles Crosby greatly. Bennett is also a very unnatural winger, playing at too high a tempo at that position.

 

[DJJones]

Why? Putting your best offensive forward and goal scorer Malkin on wing gives him more room to score in transition, Bennett is already more successful at faceoffs and should only get better, and this lets Bennett set up Malkin for those right-circle one-timers he's so good at.

Malkin is an awesome centre, but when he gets put on Crosby's wing he shows he's an even better winger. Bennett is no crosby but stylewise he actually resembles Crosby greatly. Bennett is also a very unnatural winger, playing at too high a tempo at that position.

I did not realize Malkin was at 42% FO's.

But I still can't justify in my head moving him to the wing haha.

 

[SEALBound]

I prefer seeing how Monahan turns out as he is younger+cheaper, but if traded for each other I would be excited to see how Malkin would look to shift to RW to be our Hossa for Bennett.

Tkachuk-Bennett-Malkin
Gaudreau-Jankowski-X
Frolik-Backlund-Brouwer
Ferland-Stajan-Hathaway

Actually looks pretty dominant a top 12 to me. Could contend. Fill X internally with Shinkaruk or Pribyl or Poirier.

Surefire way to get Malkin to bolt to Russia would be to send him to Calgary and stick him on the RW while Jan-Friggin-kowski takes 2C.

 

[Riptide]

Both team refuses
Pens are in win mode now, Monahan is just a downgrade
Flames are a young team and aren't contenders yet, so they might want to keep Monahan

This, and I'm not sure why either team would do it. There's some potential benefits to Pittsburgh (especially long term), but very little reason why Calgary would really even consider it.

A couple things people (TSN) were saying about the Subban/Weber move (in no particular order) that played a part in why Subban was moved.
1) Cap hits/contracts/NMCs
2) Subban's off ice antics

I'm not saying either were the main issue, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if both played a large role in why Subban is no longer a Canadian.

And neither of these things really apply to Malkin. He has a full NMC that would severely hamper Pittsburghs ability to move him and there's currently no compelling reason as to why Pittsburgh should be attempting to move him.

Sure saving 3m on the cap would be amazing. And while Monahan is not as good as Malkin, he's good enough that with his age and contract, that value wise it's close enough that it might even make sense for Pittsburgh to consider it. I mean while I'd be leaning towards saying no, it's an interesting proposal and would likely be beneficial to the team long term (like 4+ years away).

But as for PIT? They'd absolutely say no, and they wouldn't really be wrong in doing so. Malkin just turned 30 and is one of the best centers in the league. About the only knock on him (legitimate one) is that he doesn't play a full season. And sure while he is 30 (and Monahan is what 22?) he's still young enough that Pittsburgh's window is going to be open for at least 3-4 years - maybe even longer.

 

[BostonBob]

I don't get off on other people coveting my team's players.

Well that's just some great information to know.

Look around these threads and tell me it isn't the norm.

The overall opinion might be the norm but the wording you chose to use was a bit unique.