Makar vs. Fabbro

[4thline]

Not looking to start ****, or set this up as a "pick one" situation. No dog in the fight. Looking for insight from the posters that have been able to watch both at the BCHL/AJHL/NCAA level.

Personally I've only been able to see snippets of each, a couple full games of international/tournament play on TV of WJC/U18 for Fabbro and WJAC-19 for Makar.

But from what I saw there, and looking at them their profiles I find it hard to value Makar over Fabbro.

Given that they're the same age (Canadian's just finished playing their U19 years) and Fabbro successfully made the transition to NCAA, Makar stayed back in a lesser Tier II league and only matched Fabbro's U-18 year.


What am I missing?
1. Is Makar a size related late bloomer whose tools and projections are simply better than Fabbro?
or
2. Is Fabbro underrated and just as good/ 3. Makar over-rated and no better

If you see them as comparable-
4. Did Colorado make a mistake taking Makar where they did/ 5. Nashville get a steal with Fabbro
or
6. is the benchmark a scathing inditement of the quality of this draft? (4th vs 17th)

Thanks in advance

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[Tryamkin]

The most exciting feature of Makar is his dynamic, gamebreaking offensive ability. Fabbro doesn't have the same level of offensive ability that Makar does. Also, a big factor I think you have in your head is the draft class. This year has been a weaker year compared to the last 2 stacked ones. This year with less high end talent could've seen Fabbro go a lot higher. Hope these points help.

 

[FlyTimmo]

The most exciting feature of Makar is his dynamic, gamebreaking offensive ability. Fabbro doesn't have the same level of offensive ability that Makar does. Also, a big factor I think you have in your head is the draft class. This year has been a weaker year compared to the last 2 stacked ones. This year with less high end talent could've seen Fabbro go a lot higher. Hope these points help.

2016 was strong draft in the first ~8 picks or so. But, it otherwise felt pretty average. Put Fabbro in 2017 and I don't think he jumps more than a couple spots, if that.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Makar is better

 

[4thline]

The most exciting feature of Makar is his dynamic, gamebreaking offensive ability. Fabbro doesn't have the same level of offensive ability that Makar does. Also, a big factor I think you have in your head is the draft class. This year has been a weaker year compared to the last 2 stacked ones. This year with less high end talent could've seen Fabbro go a lot higher. Hope these points help.

Thanks, so based on the Q/A at the bottom of the post, you'd say a mix of 1 and 6, Makar has higher upside but they're much closer prospects than their draft slots suggest?

 

[Tryamkin]

2016 was strong draft in the first ~8 picks or so. But, it otherwise felt pretty average. Put Fabbro in 2017 and I don't think he jumps more than a couple spots, if that.

Oh yeah, but I'm saying the gap isn't as big as the 13 picks suggest. If you put Fabbro in 2017 he probably goes somewhere around 9-14.

 

[Tryamkin]

Thanks, so based on the Q/A at the bottom of the post, you'd say a mix of 1 and 6, Makar has higher upside but they're much closer prospects than their draft slots suggest?

In a way yes, Makar is the superior offensive player and has top pairing PP QB potential which Fabbro doesn't really have. I don't think they're very close, but closer than the 4 to 17 comparison suggests because of the different draft classes. Only time will tell between the two. Makar played very well as an undersized player using his smarts and playing with aggression against not very good competition, so it's yet to be seen how he would do against bigger, stronger, and faster players in the next levels of the game. If he can't adapt to that life (which has happened before) he may not stick in the NHL. If he does, he has the offensive potential to be a top 5 defenseman in the league.

 

[4thline]

In a way yes, Makar is the superior offensive player and has top pairing PP QB potential which Fabbro doesn't really have. I don't think they're very close, but closer than the 4 to 17 comparison suggests because of the different draft classes. Only time will tell between the two. Makar played very well as an undersized player using his smarts and playing with aggression against not very good competition, so it's yet to be seen how he would do against bigger, stronger, and faster players in the next levels of the game. If he can't adapt to that life (which has happened before) he may not stick in the NHL. If he does, he has the offensive potential to be a top 5 defenseman in the league.

See that's the part I have trouble with. Don't have a good enough eye to evaluate his skillset against that kind of competition.

Really ballsy pick, and as you can probably tell from the tone of the post I'm not really sold on it. Big time Turris vibe that the sky-high offensive potential is a mirage.

He was a very similar case- underdeveloped physically against inferior competition in a weak draft year, and the supposedly elite/franchise skill/IQ never translated to the degree it was billed- which to me suggests it was overstated to begin with and he was always more of a Jost type ~8-12 prospect. but people latched onto the "insane upside" because the draft year was open for hope.

 

[Tryamkin]

See that's the part I have trouble with. Don't have a good enough eye to evaluate his skillset against that kind of competition.

Really ballsy pick, and as you can probably tell from the tone of the post I'm not really sold on it. Big time Turris vibe that the sky-high offensive potential is a mirage.

He was a very similar case- underdeveloped physically against inferior competition in a weak draft year, and the supposedly elite/franchise skill/IQ never translated to the degree it was billed- which to me suggests it was overstated to begin with and he was always more of a Jost type ~8-12 prospect. but people latched onto the "insane upside" because the draft year was open for hope.

Of course man, totally understood. Some pan out and some don't. And as I said, it will mostly depend on how the physical aspects of his game transfer over to the NHL. GMs like picking players with crazy high potential that high because they don't want to pass over a possible franchise defenseman. At some point you do have to take a bigger risk reward pick.

 

[tony d]

Going with Makar here.

 

[Daximus]

I'm not entirely sold on Makar but his skating is definitely a very intriguing aspect. I think Makar's offensive ability is higher than Fabbro's but Fabbro is a more well rounded prospect IMO.
There a lot of flags that pop up about Makar. Older player in his draft year competing against lower tier competition on a powerhouse team. Very little defensive effort put it on most nights. I never saw that with Fabbro, even though he was on a powerhouse team he still was a very solid defender. I've never seen a defencemen float the way I saw Makar float the zone. I think Makar gets a slight edge if he can hit his ceiling but I feel Fabbro has the higher floor.

 

[Siludin]

Makar was the biggest sell job of the draft. It's like the media was paid off to pump him so that someone would take him instead of another guy.

Do I think this happens regularly? Yes.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Makar was the biggest sell job of the draft. It's like the media was paid off to pump him so that someone would take him instead of another guy.

Do I think this happens regularly? Yes.

I didn't think he was really far ahead of Liljegren/Valimaki.

 

[Dodospice]

If I had to choose I take Fabbro. I was higher than most on Fabbro in his draft year (I think he was a steal for Nashville) however, I don't think if he was in this draft class he goes at #4. I think Fabbro is the safer prospect and is more likely to have a long career than Makar is but Makar's upside as a PMD is so much higher than Fabbro's. If they were both on the board at the same time and I was forced to choose give me Fabbro but I think Makar is the better prospect because of his potential as a PMD even though his floor is so much lower, if that makes any sense.

 

[LordNeverLose]

I like Fabbro better than Makar. I thought Fabbro was underrated in his draft year (liked him more than McAvoy or Bean) and Makar overrated in his (liked him less than Liljegren or Valimaki)

 

[Battle Lin]

watching clips of makar he is super intriguing, he looked like a better karlsson his production was crazy, but he also looked like he was doing it against little boys

 

[Randy Randerson]

I won't claim to be a BCHL or AJHL aficionado, I will say that Makar's highlight reel blows Fabbro's out of the water. Fabbro seemed to be really good at getting pucks to the front of the net through screens and getting pucks off quickly before guys got into his shooting lanes, Makar just skated and handled the puck through entire teams like swiss cheese. Going on nothing but the eye test, and not knowing more about the two leagues than the BCHL is considered to be a little better than the AJHL, but close to being equivalent, Makar looks much more impressive

 

[TeddyBare]

Fabbro played his entire draft year as a 17 year old

Makar played his entire draft year as a 18 year old.

They are only 3 months apart in age.

 

[Freaky Styley]

This seems like a weird comparison to me, given that they are very different types of players. Fabbro plays a style comparable to Pietrangelo, and like it's been said Makar is similar to Karlsson stylistically.

I can't speak for Makar, but I've seen Fabbro play twice during his draft year. In the games I saw he actually impressed me more than Jost and seemed to have a larger impact on the game (later I learned that Jost was battling about 3 different injuries at the time). He looked steady but not flashy in any way really. I think his ceiling is a good 2nd pairing defenseman, whereas Makar has the potential to be an elite #1 if everything goes right (again, according to reports).

I understand why people are skeptical of Makar given the question marks around the league he played in, but the main reason I believe in him is because of the Avs' drafting abilities lately, especially in the top 10. They haven't missed on too many in the first 2 rounds the past few years so the scouts have earned my trust, which is why I'm excited to see what Makar does at the next level.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Ahh the age old debate between the stat-sheet scouting method vs. the good old eye test.

I was and still am a fan of Fabbro (had him 12th/13th on my draft rankings in 2016), but Makar is a much better prospect. He's a much better skater and his offensive potential is in a tier above Fabbro's, even if the stats would suggest otherwise.

Makar's ceiling is a #1 D in the Karlsson mold
Fabbro's ceiling is a #3 D in the Hamhuis mold

That's why Makar went top 5 and Fabbro went outside of the top 10.

 

[LeafChief]

Ahh the age old debate between the stat-sheet scouting method vs. the good old eye test.

I was and still am a fan of Fabbro (had him 12th/13th on my draft rankings in 2016), but Makar is a much better prospect. He's a much better skater and his offensive potential is in a tier above Fabbro's, even if the stats would suggest otherwise.

Makar's ceiling is a #1 D in the Karlsson mold
Fabbro's ceiling is a #3 D in the Hamhuis mold

That's why Makar went top 5 and Fabbro went outside of the top 10.

Not sure that I agree with that assessment. Not sure how you can state that Fabbro's ceiling is a 3D.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Not sure that I agree with that assessment. Not sure how you can state that Fabbro's ceiling is a 3D.

I don't see the offensive upside to be considered a top pairing guy.

Maybe in his peak he puts up some 30-40P seasons, but I project him more as a 20-30P top 4 D that shuts down the opposition with his excellent hockey sense.

 

[lawrence]

Fabbro had the chance to share the ice with Tyson Jost, and often on the same power play unit. Wether Makar is overrated or not, his abilites are for abvious like Fabbro, who is ranked as a future top 4. Makar ranked as a future top 2 offensive dman that generates offence.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Still not convinced the numbers Makar put up are enough to justify the heaps of praise the kid got

 

[NarcoPolo]

Bear in mind that only 4 months seperates these two in age. Both have played on the arguably the best teams in AJHL/BCHL for the two years they've spent in Junior A, only Fabbro's production last season more or less matched Makar's production this year. Makar is more dynamic and offensively minded but Fabbro is the more composed, heady player from what I've seen. I liked Fabbro more as a prospect last year as well.