Macklin Celebrini to Pittsburgh thread.

[CheckingLineCenter]

Catton is intriguing but in my highly uninformed opinion the gamble with him is that he either needs to add mass/strength or explosion/power to his skating to be a star in the NHL.

His skating is really nice but it’s that gliding style and he’s slight. That’s why he’s not a consensus top 3 pick despite the season and talent IMO.

If he struggles to fill out like POJ has I think he’s more just an undersized top 6 winger/2C. Not bad but not the hardest player type to find. If he fills out and matures like MacKinnon he’s a freak and a superstar.

 

[SEALBound]

If we are picking at 9-10, I would be 100% okay keeping it and going with Catton.

Again, I think a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I think they bet on the team for next year. With that, I started looking at draft prospects at the beginning of the season and man, they are all over. It's really tough to project who will be where in the next draft. Laine, was at 10ov in Dec and went 2ov in June back in 15/16. I'm just not sure how valuable comparing drafts and potential draftees for next year is unless you have a solid 15 that you would 100% take over a guy like Catton but even that's a risky bet.

Having a prospect pool of Yager, Catton, Pono, Kouivenen, and Ilyin would be a good thing heading into next year.

Unless we get a top 5 pick and we want to plan for the exit of a top 4 dman (and if Lindstrom is not available), I think we need to look at another center. We are so weak down the middle that I'm not sure we can afford to draft at another position (again, sans Lindstrom or Demidov). Yesterday, messing around with drafts, I was back and forth between Eiserman and Catton. Eiserman has better size, is 17, and committed to the NCAA next year. That said, I expect Catton to do another year in the WHL unless he blows someone away at camp.

 

[Andy99]

If we are picking at 9-10, I would be 100% okay keeping it and going with Catton.

Again, I think a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I think they bet on the team for next year. With that, I started looking at draft prospects at the beginning of the season and man, they are all over. It's really tough to project who will be where in the next draft. Laine, was at 10ov in Dec and went 2ov in June.

Having a prospect pool of Yager, Catton, Pono, Kouivenen, and Ilyin would be a good thing heading into next year.

Unless we get a top 5 pick and we want to plan for the exit of a top 4 dman (and if Lindstrom is not available), I think we need to look at another center. We are so weak down the middle that I'm not sure we can afford to draft at another position (again, sans Lindstrom or Demidov). Yesterday, messing around with drafts, I was back and forth between Eiserman and Catton. Eiserman has better size, is 17, and committed to the NCAA next year. That said, I expect Catton to do another year in the WHL unless he blows someone away at camp.

Not sure Catton will be there at 9/10…if we’re picking 9/10, I’d rather give the pick to SJ…

 

[SEALBound]

Not sure Catton will be there at 9/10…if we’re picking 9/10, I’d rather give the pick to SJ…

I think more so than in year past, teams may look at their pool and see what they want to bolster. Celebrini and Demidov are 1-2, no doubt. But after that, there are 5 dmen that could easily go. Then you have Eiserman, Lindstrom, and Helenius. I'd rather take Catton and hope for better next year.

I don't think we will be as bad as: Chicago, Anaheim, SJS, CBJ, Arizona, Montreal...I mean, there are a several teams still worse off than us. I also like the added pressure of having that unprotected 1st out there so that if they are start dropping a bit, maybe they consider a more major shake up. The only thing that could really change my mind on sending the pick out is if we get Carolina's 1st .

 

[Andy99]

I think more so than in year past, teams may look at their pool and see what they want to bolster. Celebrini and Demidov are 1-2, no doubt. But after that, there are 5 dmen that could easily go. Then you have Eiserman, Lindstrom, and Helenius. I'd rather take Catton and hope for better next year.

I don't think we will be as bad as: Chicago, Anaheim, SJS, CBJ, Arizona, Montreal...I mean, there are a several teams still worse off than us. I also like the added pressure of having that unprotected 1st out there so that if they are start dropping a bit, maybe they consider a more major shake up. The only thing that could really change my mind on sending the pick out is if we get Carolina's 1st .

Yeah, I don’t like leaving an unprotected first out there next season with the way we’ve played…we can spin it all we want but with the core older and back and Dubas unable or unwilling to fire Sullivan, I’d rather not take a chance we’ll be better next season lol in a better overall draft class..

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah, I don’t like leaving an unprotected first out there next season with the way we’ve played…we can spin it all we want but with the core older and back and Dubas unable or unwilling to fire Sullivan, I’d rather not take a chance we’ll be better next season lol in a better overall draft class..

When you get into the 5-10 range, I don't think there is a ton of difference between draft class to be honest. At the end of the day, it's such a crapshoot honestly.

Here's the last 10 10OV picks:
Dalibor Dvorský
Pavel Mintyukov
Tyler Boucher
Cole Perfetti
Vasily Podkolzin
Evan Bouchard
Owen Tippett
Tyson Jost
Mikko Rantanen
Nick Ritchie

4 of 10 are impact (will be impact) NHL'ers (Mint, Perfetti, Tippett, Ranty). Dvorsky is still too young so I guess you could call it 50/50. 2003 was considered an 'all-time' draft and 10th ov was Andrei Kostitsyn who was a middle 6 winger at best.

What we are worried about is the team finishing (or winning the lottery) and giving up a top 3 pick. I believe that to be more unlikely than Catton being better/same as a similar pick next year.

 

[Andy99]

When you get into the 5-10 range, I don't think there is a ton of difference between draft class to be honest. At the end of the day, it's such a crapshoot honestly.

Here's the last 10 10OV picks:
Dalibor Dvorský
Pavel Mintyukov
Tyler Boucher
Cole Perfetti
Vasily Podkolzin
Evan Bouchard
Owen Tippett
Tyson Jost
Mikko Rantanen
Nick Ritchie

4 of 10 are impact (will be impact) NHL'ers (Mint, Perfetti, Tippett, Ranty). Dvorsky is still too young so I guess you could call it 50/50. 2003 was considered an 'all-time' draft and 10th ov was Andrei Kostitsyn who was a middle 6 winger at best.

What we are worried about is the team finishing (or winning the lottery) and giving up a top 3 pick. I believe that to be more unlikely than Catton being better/same as a similar pick next year.

Maybe but you’re assuming we won’t be much worse than this season next season…maybe Sid goes down with a serious injury and Dubas hasn’t done much in the offseason to bring in great players and Sullivan is still here…maybe we get a top five pick next year…it’s malpractice to give SJ carte blanche to possible get the number 1 pick next season…I wouldn’t do it

 

[SEALBound]

Maybe but you’re assuming we won’t be much worse than this season next season…maybe Sid goes down with a serious injury and Dubas hasn’t done much in the offseason to bring in great players and Sullivan is still here…maybe we get a top five pick next year…it’s malpractice to give SJ carte blanche to possible get the number 1 pick next season…I wouldn’t do it

There's risk no matter what.

Let's say we give up 9OV this year and then finish 20th next year (meaning we have the 20th OV pick). There's a significant drop in NHL impact player likelihood after top 10 so why is not taking the sure thing any more or less risk than us doing worse next year?

If I'm Dubas, I take the pick at 8-10ov (when I talk about keeping the first, there's an unspoken assumption that if we win a lottery pick (1-3) we 1000% keep it) and then look at add additional draft capital next year to soften the blow no matter where it lands. That could mean a 2nd for Smith, a 1st+ for Pettersson, or a 1st+ for Jarry, etc if it truly looks like we are going to be out again.

 

[The Old Master]

There's risk no matter what.

Let's say we give up 9OV this year and then finish 20th next year (meaning we have the 20th OV pick). There's a significant drop in NHL impact player likelihood after top 10 so why is not taking the sure thing any more or less risk than us doing worse next year?

If I'm Dubas, I take the pick at 8-10ov (when I talk about keeping the first, there's an unspoken assumption that if we win a lottery pick (1-3) we 1000% keep it) and then look at add additional draft capital next year to soften the blow no matter where it lands. That could mean a 2nd for Smith, a 1st+ for Pettersson, or a 1st+ for Jarry, etc if it truly looks like we are going to be out again.

any/all of those trades will only improve our chances to finish no. 1 overall.

 

[Andy99]

This article shows at least 15 centers with some size in the top 15 of this ranking…chances better to get someone we could use in 2025 unless we get a top five pick this draft…

2025 NHL Draft ranking: Scott Wheeler's early top 28

An early look at the top prospects in the 2025 NHL Draft class.

theathletic.com

 

[DrDangles]

Hope and pray that the Russian factor let's Demidov fall to us

 

[SEALBound]

Hope and pray that the Russian factor let's Demidov fall to us

I don't think "the Russian factor" will make him drop but I could see "we need a defenseman more than a winger" factor doing it.

Demidov falling to us would be tremendous though.

 

[The Old Master]

just looking at our prospects pool, we seem to be lacking in size and defensemen. so, if you're looking to balance that out. that could influence it on who we pick. but from where we are at, the best way to go right now is bpa. imo

 

[Wattsburgh]

Our luck Sullivan finds A Coaching Guide for Dummies book and we finish in the 20’s next year after we sacrificed this one. Or since that book left out playing young guns, maybe Dubas does a Khan this offseason. Doubtful too. But either way you take the 10-1 overall this year in my opinion.

 

[SEALBound]

just looking at our prospects pool, we seem to be lacking in size and defensemen. so, if you're looking to balance that out. that could influence it on who we pick. but from where we are at, the best way to go right now is bpa. imo

Really, the only prospect we have is Pickering on the back end. But when you have:

Pettersson-Letang
Graves-Karlsson
POJ-XXXXX

As your core, all of whom are locked up decently well, I question if the defense is truly a priority especially when you look at the woeful depth up front.

 

[The Old Master]

Really, the only prospect we have is Pickering on the back end. But when you have:

Pettersson-Letang
Graves-Karlsson
POJ-XXXXX

As your core, all of whom are locked up decently well, I question if the defense is truly a priority especially when you look at the woeful depth up front.

i'm thinking ek will want out and they way tanger is going downhill and pet's maybe on the block we could be very thin quickly.

 

[SEALBound]

i'm thinking ek will want out and they way tanger is going downhill and pet's maybe on the block we could be very thin quickly.

Incredibly fair viewpoint.

In past posts I've suggested taking Levshunov, Dickenson, etc with the intention of them becoming EK's replacement. I do think that if EK is sent out, we are likely getting a player in return.

If he wants to go to Ottawa, it could end up being Chabot or even Chychrun who does NOT want to stay there.

I've suggested in the past:
Pettersson + Jarry for Holtz+Bahl+2025 1st
EK for Chabot

POJ-Letang
Bahl-Chabot
Graves-Ludvig

That's a relatively young d-core that you are eventually adding Pickering and a 2024 1st guy to.

 

[DrDangles]

I don't think "the Russian factor" will make him drop but I could see "we need a defenseman more than a winger" factor doing it.

Demidov falling to us would be tremendous though.

Tbf I was thinking about it the same way as Michkov but forgot he has a contract in place until 2026 or whatever so it's not really the same situation.

I still feel like there's a decent chance Demidov slips out of the top 5. Lots of guys drafted outside of the top 10 have produced at the KHL level before being drafted, so far Demidov has only dominanted at a junior level. Still an insanely intriguing prospect.

 

[SEALBound]

Tbf I was thinking about it the same way as Michkov but forgot he has a contract in place until 2026 or whatever so it's not really the same situation.

I still feel like there's a decent chance Demidov slips out of the top 5. Lots of guys drafted outside of the top 10 have produced at the KHL level before being drafted, so far Demidov has only dominanted at a junior level. Still an insanely intriguing prospect.

Yeah, he could easily fall to #7 like Michkov did. He's the #2 talent in the draft but how other scouts view him is TBD I guess.

His numbers look very similar to Kucherov's at that age and they are the same size. Demidov is also outpacking what Michkov did last year in MHL.

 

[chethejet]

For me there are very good RD in the 5 to 12 range that I would be happy with. A couple to me are more interesting due to size but in the end, this draft especially if Dubas can move Smith for a second give the Pens four good prospects in Pens first, second, Philly second and Smith trade. This is really about the transition from what is here to what will be here in 2 years. If you believe Dubas will semi purge the roster with Rust, Karlsson, and maybe others will be moved, then the next all in has to be restocking the farm to get bigger faster younger and having a new coach to oversee this.

 

[Wattsburgh]

This loss was for you Celebrini—Mike Sullivan.


P.S. See you when you’re 25 and a half.

 

[eXile3]

Nobody this team's gonna draft is gonna help immediately short of Celebrini, and I'm not even sure he'd help because Sully would be coaching him.

I think even Celebrini will need a year. It’s really understated how hard it is to jump to the NHL at that age.

Plus like you said, if he was to come over right away Sullys burying him in dzone starts on a 3rd or 4th line.

 

[The Great Mighty Poo]

I can't wait to see him get Sullivan'd and banished to WBS over the Cartkins' of the world while he learns how to PK or 2way or whatever the f*** that idiot will babble about.

 

[chethejet]

Playesr even the core players are not bringing as if they are all in here. Yes Sid seems to be in the play the game mode. But I am not sure except Geno if the older guys are just not giving a rats ass or they actually are starting a decline. Pens win that game 2 years ago. Now they really just accept the losses. Lip serve sully has 15 million reasons to fake interest. FSG has to be the stupidest ownership group in sports to extend that coach with that last 5 year record. FSG will not fire Sullivan short of a catastrophe.

 

[SEALBound]

I can't wait to see him get Sullivan'd and banished to WBS over the Cartkins' of the world while he learns how to PK or 2way or whatever the f*** that idiot will babble about.

If they get Celebrini, I'm wondering if they don't completely shift their thinking and start fresh. Everyone but Sid, Geno, and Letang out and you start the rebuild early. Ask the three if they want a different arrangement (although I do ask Sid to stay and become the mentor we know he will become).