Value of: Mackenzie Blackwood

[Church Hill]

Anyone who has suffered through watching any Sharks games this season has seen that this guy is playing like a clear #1.

He made 40 saves last night, all the way down to the end of the game, to get the Sharks their first win 2-1. He's also made games competitive that had no reason to be, like when he made 50+ saves to force the Avalanche into overtime in his first start of the season.

He's 26, 6'4", and is signed for $2.35m this year and next.

I know there are teams desperate for a goalie of his caliber (Edmonton??). What would the value be? What would a trade framework look like?

Click to read more...

 

[PAZ]

He got traded for a 6th.

10 games doesn’t erase the last few years nor how other teams valued him around the league. Sharks can probably get a mid-round pick instead of a late round pick, but he’s not going for anything close to a 1st.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Without him San Jose is 0-12. He played on his head to get us 3 points this season. I think they have to keep him to stay somewhat able to stay in a game.

 

[Church Hill]

He got traded for a 6th.

10 games doesn’t erase the last few years nor how other teams valued him around the league. Sharks can probably get a mid-round pick instead of a late round pick, but he’s not going for anything close to a 1st.

His rights were traded - he didn't have a contract but he did have an expensive QO

The Sharks didn't qualify him, they signed him to a value well below it.

And now he's on a great contract and playing like he's hungry to win, which he won't do in SJ. He will easily be worth a good pick if he continues this to the deadline. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if some team bites sooner.

 

[GAGLine]

His rights were traded - he didn't have a contract but he did have an expensive QO

The Sharks didn't qualify him, they signed him to a value well below it.

And now he's on a great contract and playing like he's hungry to win, which he won't do in SJ. He will easily be worth a good pick if he continues this to the deadline. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if some team bites sooner.

That's a big if. I suggest waiting until close to the deadline to find out. 9 games is far too small of a sample size.

 

[EK392000]

Without him San Jose is 0-12. He played on his head to get us 3 points this season. I think they have to keep him to stay somewhat able to stay in a game.

There's no reason to stay in a game if there's hardly any chance you will win it.

LA would likely be very interested in Blackwood if he can manage to maintain average numbers for a few more months. Average on the Sharks is an incredible feat.

 

[TotalHomer]

Edmonton is desperate. They'll overpay.

 

[Son of Petter]

That cap hit is worth something in itself if it can get these teams a legit starter. Like most goalies he’s voodoo but he’s certainly playing like a #1 rn. I’ve been betting his over on saves quite a bit.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Yes please. I don't know how to make the money work, but Edmonton needs something. Campbell going down, Pickard going back up is only a stop-gap, so let's find something with Edmonton and the Sharks here. To make the cap work for Edmonton, my proposal includes 50% retention. WIth sending Campbell down, the Oilers only get 1.2 M (roughly) in cap relief, so we still have to make that work salary wise.

To Edmonton - Blackwood (50% retention - 1.175M cap hit)

To San Jose - 2nd round pick in 2023, Chet Pickard (.765 M)

The 2nd is a desperation value pick, I don't think he gets a 2nd without Edmonton being in desperation mode. Pickard is a warm body and contract and slight cap hit to balance things out. SJ can bury him if they would rather have one of their minor leaguers called up.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

If SJ is willing to take Campbell and EDM is willing to pay draft capital to SJ to take him I could see a trade happening.

But Blackwood is too inconsistent and has had injury issues making him not a trust worthy option as a no.1.

 

[Guffman]

Blackwood Human Pilon	Save %
2021-22	0.892
2022-23	0.893
2023-24	0.892

Hmm... what would I trade for a goalie that consistently rocks an 0.892 over the past three seasons? I dunno. Maybe a sixth round pick?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If SJ is willing to take Campbell and EDM is willing to pay draft capital to SJ to take him I could see a trade happening.

But Blackwood is too inconsistent and has had injury issues making him not a trust worthy option as a no.1.

Campbell also has to be willing to go to San Jose with his 10 team no-trade list. That may be a hard sell considering how bad the Sharks are and the high taxes that come with such a move. It'll also be very difficult for Grier to move Blackwood this quickly when he's definitively the team's MVP up to this point and one of really only two bright spots on the team right now. This is especially after the season-opening losing streak that was drawing negative headlines for them. It wouldn't be a good look for them to move Blackwood so quickly if he continues to perform even this well where his save percentage is not great (mostly due to being asked too much just to keep them in games).

 

[Guffman]

Over 50% of Blackwood's games, he delivers a save % less than .900.

In one third of this games, he delivers a save % between .600 and .799

Save %	# of games
Above .900	4
Between .800 and .899	2
Between .700 and .799	2
Below .700	1

He will save the Oilers!!

 

[Bleedred]

Blackwood is an .892% goalie over his last close to 86 games now.

Sound like someone else? *cough Jack Campbell cough*.

He’s bad no matter where he plays. He’s probably gonna be worse on the Sharks, but just because the Sharks are the worst team in the league doesn’t mean he’s not also one of the worst goalies in the league. Because he absolutely is.

And his AHL career was also mediocre. His best season in the AHL was his first year, it was probably average.

His next season was a disaster and the season after that was mediocre.

And he’s not worth $2.35 million.

 

[sjsharks92]

He's been remarkable for us. Even the goal he allowed last night had to go to replay review because he made a spectacular cross crease glove effort.

The Sharks need him just to have any chance of staying in games.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Over 50% of Blackwood's games, he delivers a save % less than .900.

In one third of this games, he delivers a save % between .600 and .799

Save %	# of games
Above .900	4
Between .800 and .899	2
Between .700 and .799	2
Below .700	1

He will save the Oilers!!

In his 8 starts, he's seen 52 shots against the Avs, 42 shots against the Canes, 34 against the Preds, 35 against the Panthers, 21 in less than half the game against the Lightning, 41 against the Caps, 18 shots in about half the game against the Pens, and 39 against the Flyers. Against the Canucks, he played the second half of that game and they gave up 14 shots. That's a lot of volume to give up and I'm pretty sure the high danger chances are just as ugly. Blackwood is playing well but he's not going to hold up over repeated firing barrages. Edmonton may not be able to do much better in that regard but he's seeing about 40 shots per game but even their roughly 31 shots per game will probably yield more positive consistent results than what Blackwood is going to do behind an AHL team playing in the NHL. Save the Oilers? No but a reasonable stopgap that could do a lot of good if it also includes Campbell going the other way without having to give up too much of a sweetener.

 

[Guffman]

In his 8 starts, he's seen 52 shots against the Avs, 42 shots against the Canes, 34 against the Preds, 35 against the Panthers, 21 in less than half the game against the Lightning, 41 against the Caps, 18 shots in about half the game against the Pens, and 39 against the Flyers. Against the Canucks, he played the second half of that game and they gave up 14 shots. That's a lot of volume to give up and I'm pretty sure the high danger chances are just as ugly. Blackwood is playing well but he's not going to hold up over repeated firing barrages. Edmonton may not be able to do much better in that regard but he's seeing about 40 shots per game but even their roughly 31 shots per game will probably yield more positive consistent results than what Blackwood is going to do behind an AHL team playing in the NHL. Save the Oilers? No but a reasonable stopgap that could do a lot of good if it also includes Campbell going the other way without having to give up too much of a sweetener.

Look, an .892 each year for the past three years is not something to get excited about despite you trying to hype up that slop.

As far as Campbell is concerned, unless the Oilers are taking back a really bad contract, they definitely have to add a big sweetener to move him out since he has four years left on that contract.

 

[Mattb124]

You can tell who has and who has not watched Blackwood play this year behind a horrible Sharks team. He has been outstanding, but…. 0.892. Watch some hockey guys.

 

[Gecklund]

Yes please. I don't know how to make the money work, but Edmonton needs something. Campbell going down, Pickard going back up is only a stop-gap, so let's find something with Edmonton and the Sharks here. To make the cap work for Edmonton, my proposal includes 50% retention. WIth sending Campbell down, the Oilers only get 1.2 M (roughly) in cap relief, so we still have to make that work salary wise.

To Edmonton - Blackwood (50% retention - 1.175M cap hit)

To San Jose - 2nd round pick in 2023, Chet Pickard (.765 M)

The 2nd is a desperation value pick, I don't think he gets a 2nd without Edmonton being in desperation mode. Pickard is a warm body and contract and slight cap hit to balance things out. SJ can bury him if they would rather have one of their minor leaguers called up.

Sharks say absolutely not. If all we get is losing our last retention spot and a 2nd we will keep him

Blackwood is an .892% goalie over his last close to 86 games now.

Sound like someone else? *cough Jack Campbell cough*.

He’s bad no matter where he plays. He’s probably gonna be worse on the Sharks, but just because the Sharks are the worst team in the league doesn’t mean he’s not also one of the worst goalies in the league. Because he absolutely is.

And his AHL career was also mediocre. His best season in the AHL was his first year, it was probably average.

His next season was a disaster and the season after that was mediocre.

And he’s not worth $2.35 million.

This is a horrible take.

 

[Bleedred]

Sharks say absolutely not. If all we get is losing our last retention spot and a 2nd we will keep him


This is a horrible take.

Except it’s not a horrible take at all.

It’s an accurate one.

He was woefully outplayed by both Devils goalies last year. He’s one of the worst goalies in the NHL since February of 2021.

Acting like he isn’t is truly the horrible take.

He’s an .892% goalie since February of 2021 and the last 86 games.

He’s probably gonna be a little worse than that with the Sharks (he’s actually right at .892% after last night’s game lol) but he’s bad no matter where.

That’s probably closer to what Krappo was last year on the Sharks.

 

[BKarchitect]

You can tell who has and who has not watched Blackwood play this year behind a horrible Sharks team. He has been outstanding, but…. 0.892. Watch some hockey guys.

You’re making up an argument that doesn’t exist. Nobody is saying he hasn’t been admirable in his 8 starts for the Sharks this year.

People are saying he’s been a trash goalie the previous 3 seasons in a sample size over 10x as long.

He’s a goalie. He’s big and has talent and he’s a goalie. Which means he may be Adin Hill someday. It also means he may be in the midst of the best 10 game stretch of his career on a team with no pressure to win before he disappears again.

Nobody is paying a premium right now to find out.

 

[Bleedred]

As someone who is a fan of both teams and has watched most of the games Blackwood has played in the NHL (I didn’t watch last night because Devils take precedent) Blackwood has played like Blackwood this year. He didn’t look any worse in some of those blowout losses than he did in many of his Devils games behind a better team.

But his game against Colorado was probably the best game of his NHL career. And he had some great ones, particularly in the 19-20 season.

His game last night was probably better than any game he played with the Devils since his 40 save shutout against the Islanders in November of 2021.

 

[PAZ]

His rights were traded - he didn't have a contract but he did have an expensive QO

The Sharks didn't qualify him, they signed him to a value well below it.

And now he's on a great contract and playing like he's hungry to win, which he won't do in SJ. He will easily be worth a good pick if he continues this to the deadline. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if some team bites sooner.

Nobody would’ve signed him for that QO, he didn’t take a discount with the Sharks because he was feeling nice.

If he continues playing well to the deadline a desperate team may take a gamble on him for a 2nd/2nd+, but that’s a very big if.

I’m not discounting he’s been great in his short stint with the Sharks, but goalies in general don’t have a lot of value unless they’re consistent and an established starter. Blackwood is neither of those.

 

[Gecklund]

Except it’s not a horrible take at all.

It’s an accurate one.

He was woefully outplayed by both Devils goalies last year. He’s one of the worst goalies in the NHL since February of 2021.

Acting like he isn’t is truly the horrible take.

He’s an .892% goalie since February of 2021 and the last 86 games.

He’s probably gonna be a little worse than that with the Sharks (he’s actually right at .892% after last night’s game lol) but he’s bad no matter where.

That’s probably closer to what Krappo was last year on the Sharks.

He’s been absolutely fantastic for SJ. He just gets peppered with shots and high quality chances.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Look, an .892 each year for the past three years is not something to get excited about despite you trying to hype up that slop.

As far as Campbell is concerned, unless the Oilers are taking back a really bad contract, they definitely have to add a big sweetener to move him out since he has four years left on that contract.

I didn't say to get excited about it. I'm just putting context behind what he's faced this season thus far as why some like what he's done so far even with that save percentage being what it is. Blackwood, if he remains healthy, would be a viable option for a team if they need a goalie. In Edmonton's case, I just don't see any way for them to bring in someone like Blackwood without sending out Campbell as part of it. And if it's the basis for a Sharks-Oilers trade, it will artificially inflate Blackwood's value because they'd be taking on Campbell and they'd be adding the equivalent of two 1st round picks to get rid of him. A price that is likely too rich for their blood when they can probably manage the buyout after this season.