Value of: Mackenzie Blackwood to Edmonton

[Mattb124]

Statistics which account for shot quality generally suggest Blackwood was an approximately average starter last season.

Does that statistic represent where the shot was taken on the ice, or does it take into account the difficulty of the save (e.g. differentiating between a shot from a spot on a break-away versus a shot from the same spot that is a one timer following a cross seam pass)?

 

[Team_Spirit]

Skinner just sucks at making high danger saves. Partly because he's slow as molasses in net.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1856557523572281831

Honest question: what is it with Mackenzie Blackwood that make people think he could be a solid NHL starter?

He's been on 2 tanking teams and won many games by himself.

Now in his mid 20s with all that experience we project him as a starter on a competitive team.

 

[dino200022]

I honestly think that Blackwood is extremely underrated. Obviously that is just my opinion and I have nothing to back this up but I think he is getting the short end of the stick by backstopping the teams he has played in front of.

I think if you put him on a half decent team and he can stay healthy he could prove to be an upper echelon tendy.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Oh god we’re doing Mackenzie Blackwood revisionism here

Surely THIS is the time he has finally put it all together and he’s going to stay consistent AND healthy

 

[McFlyingV]

Lol this thread again.

Edmonton doesn't need goaltending they need defense.

Their league worst GSAA says otherwise.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Oh god we’re doing Mackenzie Blackwood revisionism here

Surely THIS is the time he has finally put it all together and he’s going to stay consistent AND healthy

The Oilers are kind of in between a rock and a hard place though. They need to upgrade significantly in two spaces - goal, and 2nd pair RD. Both spots are difficult to upgrade, and they have, at most, enough to upgrade in one on those spots with a guaranteed upgrade. Could they go out and shop for a 5M goalie at the deadline to help shore things up? Absolutely they could. But does that help them now, when their backup is outplaying the starter, and the backup would be in the AHL on most teams? If they get Blackwood, they are getting a goalie who has a lot of the tools needed to be successful, despite not necessarily showing that consistently in the past. It's a bit of a gamble, but it could be worth it if it does work.

If the Oilers were to do this, I would almost rather work something around Skinner for Blackwood, rather than Pickard for Blackwood. I don't want two goalies with a history of consistency issues.

 

[McFlyingV]

The Oilers are kind of in between a rock and a hard place though. They need to upgrade significantly in two spaces - goal, and 2nd pair RD. Both spots are difficult to upgrade, and they have, at most, enough to upgrade in one on those spots with a guaranteed upgrade. Could they go out and shop for a 5M goalie at the deadline to help shore things up? Absolutely they could. But does that help them now, when their backup is outplaying the starter, and the backup would be in the AHL on most teams? If they get Blackwood, they are getting a goalie who has a lot of the tools needed to be successful, despite not necessarily showing that consistently in the past. It's a bit of a gamble, but it could be worth it if it does work.

If the Oilers were to do this, I would almost rather work something around Skinner for Blackwood, rather than Pickard for Blackwood. I don't want two goalies with a history of consistency issues.

Alternatively you run Blackwood-Skinner and send Pickard down. Pretty good chance he clears at this point, and nice to have the call up option in case of injury/continued free fall from Skinner. Would probably need to throw a 3rd team a 4th round pick for 50% retention so you can keep accruing cap space for the deadline to add a 6-8mil D with 50-75% retention.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Oh god we’re doing Mackenzie Blackwood revisionism here

Surely THIS is the time he has finally put it all together and he’s going to stay consistent AND healthy

For the purposes of a trade where Blackwood is signed through the end of the season, he only needs to do all that this one year before they just let him go.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Alternatively you run Blackwood-Skinner and send Pickard down. Pretty good chance he clears at this point, and nice to have the call up option in case of injury/continued free fall from Skinner. Would probably need to throw a 3rd team a 4th round pick for 50% retention so you can keep accruing cap space for the deadline to add a 6-8mil D with 50-75% retention.

Pickard probably would clear, you're right there. 50% retenetion is a good idea, but is Blackwood worth paying the extra 4th for?

 

[McFlyingV]

Pickard probably would clear, you're right there. 50% retenetion is a good idea, but is Blackwood worth paying the extra 4th for?

Athletically speaking yes I think he'd be worth the gamble. A 4th really only gets you a 4th line player in most cases or is a throw in for a 3rd party retaining 50%. This season and last are promising results in front of an atrocious SJ team. I think he's one of the better gambles out there that the Oilers can actually afford. Athletically he's arguably a top 5 goalie in the league. It's just a matter of consistency and health with him, but he is the type of goalie that could go on a hot run in a postseason and imo that is something the Oilers would benefit from.

 

[My3Sons]

Athletically speaking yes I think he'd be worth the gamble. A 4th really only gets you a 4th line player in most cases or is a throw in for a 3rd party retaining 50%. This season and last are promising results in front of an atrocious SJ team. I think he's one of the better gambles out there that the Oilers can actually afford. Athletically he's arguably a top 5 goalie in the league. It's just a matter of consistency and health with him, but he is the type of goalie that could go on a hot run in a postseason and imo that is something the Oilers would benefit from.

Blackwood has all the physical talent and ability a goalie could ask for. He needs to stay healthy and keep his head on straight. I'm just not sure if he can stay consistent in a pressurized environment where he has to routinely win games as opposed to just playing well on a mediocre team. If Edmonton could get him for something less than a second round pick he's absolutely worth the roll of the dice.

 

[Macheteops]

Their league worst GSAA says otherwise.

I mean 3 goals against on 3 scoring chances screams defensive help to me

You bump that down to 1 scoring chance and you're only looking at 1 GA

Skinner is a goof. Guy blaming/crying about the 3rd goal against in a 7-3 W while being the worst player on the ice most nights is crazy. I hope his D start throwing their hands up when he lets in stinkers

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The idea with Blackwood shouldn't be to replace or supplant Skinner. It should be to form a tandem with Skinner.

Skinner's biggest problem is he's being asked to play ~60 games when he should be playing 40-50. Calvin Pickard isn't a guy that can play a 1B role, he's a backup, pure and simple.

The challenge is going to be that if we really do end up needing goaltending help - and it looks like we might - then that's really going to eat into the quality of RD we can acquire at the deadline. The forwards are fine.

 

[TheBeard]

Oh god we’re doing Mackenzie Blackwood revisionism here

Surely THIS is the time he has finally put it all together and he’s going to stay consistent AND healthy

You make it sound like he's some 30 year old journeyman goaltender. He's been on two teams. Been pretty damn good and healthy in SJ.

 

[ManofSteel55]

The idea with Blackwood shouldn't be to replace or supplant Skinner. It should be to form a tandem with Skinner.

Skinner's biggest problem is he's being asked to play ~60 games when he should be playing 40-50. Calvin Pickard isn't a guy that can play a 1B role, he's a backup, pure and simple.

The challenge is going to be that if we really do end up needing goaltending help - and it looks like we might - then that's really going to eat into the quality of RD we can acquire at the deadline. The forwards are fine.

I don't think you can blame Skinner's struggles this season on being overplayed.

I actually don't think we look to upgrade in net. I expect that we will do as we have, finding our way to some consistency, and then we make a trade to improve the RD spot (2nd pair), and hope that is enough to get us back to where we should be.

 

[Slats432]

Skinner is a top 15 to 20 goalie in the NHL. Getting an improvement to what the Oilers already have would be advocating for someone like Hellebuyck, Sorokin or Vasilevsky.

It's not going to happen.

He is 3rd last in the entire league in GSA expected.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

View attachment 930162
He is 3rd last in the entire league in GSA expected.

I stand by my comments.

 

[Slats432]

I stand by my comments.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

View attachment 930166

Small samples are small

I'm not throwing out the entire body of work because of a couple bad starts behind a poorly performing team.

Remember when Devan Dubnyk was ran out of Edmonton in 2014 and was a Vezina finalist in 2015.

Be careful what you wish for.

 

[Slats432]

Small samples are small

I'm not throwing out the entire body of work because of a couple bad starts behind a poorly performing team.

View attachment 930167


Remember when Devan Dubnyk was ran out of Edmonton in 2014 and was a Vezina finalist in 2015.

Be careful what you wish for.

Wins are a team stat. Save percentage is the goalie stat.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

View attachment 930172
Wins are a team stat. Save percentage is the goalie stat.

Skinner is 0.07 below Shesterkin.

 

[Slats432]

Skinner is 0.07 below Shesterkin.

Not. Top. 20.

There isn't a stat that supports it.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Not. Top. 20.

There isn't a stat that supports it.

It's been one month.

 

[Slats432]

It's been one month.

There isn't a stat that supports it for last year either.

 

[HuGort]

Oilers should bring back Ceci. Different back end with him not there