Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
I’m a UMD fan and alum. Watching doesn’t make it much better.
LW Riley Tufte - Minnesota-Duluth, NCAA (2016, 25th, DAL)
- Thread starter Ovechkin962
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I’m a UMD fan and alum. Watching doesn’t make it much better.
DatDude44
Hmmmm?
- Feb 23, 2012
- 6,352
- 3,246
Well......shoot.....guess Dominik Bokk is gonna be a bust :/
Wasn’t Pastrnak 25th overall too?
CupInSIX
My cap runneth over
Yes, but that wouldn't help the point he's making, which is why he stopped at 2013
He's still right, though. If you go through everybody picked between 20-30 in these years, you'll see how much of a crapshoot it becomes even that early.
AveryStar4Eva
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2014
- 7,453
- 5,782
I’m glad Tufte signed so we can see how he does as a pro. Unfortunately his upside is now looking like a bottom six winger, but could still carve out a career which is better than nothing.
MrHeiskanen
Registered User
- Nov 12, 2017
- 12,946
- 10,533
Because the source I got it from started there? If you want to post 2014-2019 go for it.. I don't have time to sit here and post and search year over year.. I just copy paste.
25th Overall NHL Draft Picks
Gaylord Q Tinkledink
Registered User
- Apr 29, 2018
- 35,894
- 39,886
2014 - David Pastrnak
2015 - Jack Roslovic
2016 - Riley Tufte
2017 - Ryan Poehling
2018 - Dominik Bokk
2019 - Connor McMichael
MMC
Global Moderator
AveryStar4Eva
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2014
- 7,453
- 5,782
Big time bust. We should have never signed him to at least get a late 2nd round pick back.
Stars were among the worst drafting teams between 2008-2016. They hit on Heiskanen with a high pick. Too early to judge guys like Dellandrea and Harley. Maybe Heiskanen is a turning point. But, between 2008-2016 their best first-round pick is probably Faska, a good middle-six defensive forward, but considering they had 7 picks between 8-15, you are probably asking for a better crown jewel than that. Tufte looks to just be another in a long list of disappointments. They have had some good non-first round picks in that time-frame (Klingberg and Reilly Smith, probably Hintz), but it doesn't offset the return on guys like Campbell, Glennie, Nicushkin, Oleksiak and Honka.
MrHeiskanen
Registered User
- Nov 12, 2017
- 12,946
- 10,533
tealhockey
@overtheboards
- Jun 2, 2012
- 1,197
- 854
I don't really get why he signed, it's not like he had a killer junior year. Feels like kids let the fact that they went first round get to their head, he always was a long-term project
Hostile Offer
Artist formerly known as Eagle Peninsula
William H Bonney
Registered User
He's never been very impressive outside of his time playing high school hockey and that comes with a mountain of salt as he had a huge size advantage while playing on a strong team.
Going pro when you're a marginal NCAAer with downward trending production is indeed an odd decision. Not that I would have expected he'd have turned it around as a senior, but it would have at least been another chance to play a front line role versus toiling away in a tougher league. Plus, he would have had control to sign with whomever after his senior year.
I'm honestly surprised Dallas even signed him. Maybe they can develop him into a guy like Zach Sanford's level, but the signs aren't good.
tealhockey
@overtheboards
- Jun 2, 2012
- 1,197
- 854
There was a period of time there in high school where he looked really serious. I saw him way back coming off a year where he had spent some time on JV if I recall correctly and he curved into an offensive beast during his time in high school but as you say he was playing against a lot of guys who had no real future in hockey. He scored almost 50 goals in 27 games as a 6'5 senior, he should have been playing in junior..
It's definitely bizarre to sign, even if you use the argument that UMD lost a good amount (and they did), that only means he would have every chance to develop playing all situations and likely be leaned on for them. I hope it works out for him but I just don't get these kids who all go straight from high school to college like it isn't a massive jump. You're going from a level where 90% of the guys you play are younger and worse than you to the exact opposite. At least in the USHL you play guys who are old and good enough
Newfoundland
Registered User
tealhockey
@overtheboards
- Jun 2, 2012
- 1,197
- 854
I get the point but I think the more salient one is that you should just handle the development correctly. The NHL is all about winning now and they shoot themselves in the foot. On the other hand if you let a guy like this develop on a 5 year timeline maybe he signs for some other team in the end, so I kind of get it
William H Bonney
Registered User
I wouldn't go that far. Minnesota high school hockey has been in down period in terms of producing top flight players for sure, but you can and should draft the high quality players.
But I don't think Tufte's draft position is an issue of high school hockey. There were plenty of signs pre-draft that Tufte's high school production wasn't indicative of high-end skill or a top prospect. He was non-existent for Team USA at the 2015 WHC-17, he was non-existent for Team USA at the 2016 Ivan Hlinka, and he'd put up decent but unexciting numbers in 34 USHL games. Each time he played better competition, he looked marginal at best.
The reality is high school scouting is harder because the quality of competition is so volatile, so many of the players are marginal or worse, and guys with huge size advantages (a la Tufte) can look dominant because of it.
The evidence was there that he was likely he was a long-term project that you'd be rolling the dice on because of his size and the glimpses he'd shown in high school hockey. And the latter should have been largely/completely discounted by his performance away from high school too. It seems like the Dallas scouts fell in love with his size and were blinded by his performance with Blaine and ignored the rest. Probably explains why they passed on a similarly sized project - Tage Thompson - who was a better prospect with more recent success against quality competition.
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tealhockey
@overtheboards
- Jun 2, 2012
- 1,197
- 854
Tage curved a lot harder, a lot faster than Riley did, especially with the benefit of hind-sight and what he has become now but he never had that "6'5 winger who can score goals" ceiling that Riley displayed. Hard to say what call I would make if I was them at the time, and I always liked Tage. Staying in high school likely jolted Tufte's draft stock but probably hurt his development in the long-run
There are a lot of good players drafted from high-school, especially Minnesota defenceman. Most notably Niskanen, McDonagh,Leddy, and Jake Gardiner. To be honest, it seems like NHLers taken out of high school in the first round between 2004-2015 probably exceeded the average return on the area they were taken. Only notable bust is Fischer, and almost all were taken outside the top 10 after which it becomes close to a 50/50 proposition you get a player of actual value. Wheeler, Cory Schneider, Kreider, Oshie, Niskanen, Leddy, Gardiner, Kevin Hayes, Brock Nelson, and McDonagh all became at least a starting goalie, a top 4 d or a top 6 forward which is a good return for any player taken after the top 10. Jankowski is a 3rd liner, but he's the rare rare exception of someone taken out of a Canadian prep school league in the first round. To be honest, I'd be pretty surprised if any other group of first-round picks provided more value on average. Prior to 2004 there were different entry requirements for the draft, making high-school guys a bit more uncommon. Maybe its changed with the improvement of the USHL, and more kids going to the program. But, that's actually a great track record. I doubt any other region has close to a 90% hit rate for that time frame in the first round, especially depending on players taken outside the top 10.
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William H Bonney
Registered User
They were (still are) both projects for sure, but I think your explanation, particularly the ceiling claim is a scouting issue indicative of how a guy like Tufte goes far too high in the draft. It's like scouts fall in love with the tropes about some players - "6'5 winger who can score goals" - and actually ignore the evidence about the player and whether the trope is appropriate for that player or inappropriate for a similar prospect. There was as much, if not more, worthwhile information for at minimum that label to also apply to Tage if it applied to Tufte.
At 14/15/16, sure Tufte was better than Thompson, but Thompson was incrementally improving, and improved a lot as a 17/18 year old, whereas Tufte had seemingly plateaued and/or he wasn't as good as one hoped as a youngster as he couldn't produce against better competition and never got better.
Heading into their draft, Thompson had just scored 14 goals as an NCAA freshman while averaging 0.89 PPG. He was second on his team in scoring, behind another freshman (Letunov) who was 20 months older than him.
Conversely, Tufte had a monster high school season (though another guy on Blaine put up the same exact point totals and was then almost always scratched for Minnesota before leaving hockey all together), but only produced 0.52 PPG in the USHL that year and scored less goals-per-game in the USHL than Tage did in the NCAA. That's not to say scouts should just throw out high school performance because it's high school hockey, but with Tufte, there was plenty of evidence countering that production to indeed throw it out or discount it. And there was plenty of evidence to think of Tage as a "6'5 winger who can score goals" at that point if that label still applied to Tufte.
My point isn't that Thompson was a slam dunk pick over Tufte as he wasn't. It's about falling in love with some aspect of a prospect and ignoring the mounting evidence showing the reason for that love is a mirage and/or that a similar prospect is a better version of the original prospect that one's fallen for. There were signs that Tage was the better prospect at the time of the draft, but the signs were ignored. And it's not really about hindsight as the signs were there during their draft seasons.
Dr Pepper
Registered User
Well that's unfortunate.
Five players from that 2016 first round who have yet to suit up for a single NHL game. Tufte's one of them (ouch - Juolevi 5th?
)
He'll probably still get a callup at some point in the future, even if it's just for a game or two.
Even the legendary first round bust Scott Glennie can say he at least suited up for ONE NHL game.
Hopefully Tufte amounts to a bit more, but it doesn't look great right now.
Nick Caamano, Dallas's 5th from that 2016 draft, has shown more at the pro level (albeit in a limited role)
Dallas really should've opted for DeBrincat. I wonder if he was on their radar at all.
Five players from that 2016 first round who have yet to suit up for a single NHL game. Tufte's one of them (ouch - Juolevi 5th?
)He'll probably still get a callup at some point in the future, even if it's just for a game or two.
Even the legendary first round bust Scott Glennie can say he at least suited up for ONE NHL game.
Hopefully Tufte amounts to a bit more, but it doesn't look great right now.
Nick Caamano, Dallas's 5th from that 2016 draft, has shown more at the pro level (albeit in a limited role)
Dallas really should've opted for DeBrincat. I wonder if he was on their radar at all.
tealhockey
@overtheboards
- Jun 2, 2012
- 1,197
- 854
Yeah I generally agree I just think without the benefit of hind-sight the idea is that Tufte projected to be a more high-end scorer. Tage projected to be what he has become, which is kind of a tweener who can play in the show but isn't necessarily an elite scoring threat. I don't think anyone thought Tage had a chance to be a long-term top six guy whereas Tufte at the time definitely did have an outside chance. Context matters for sure. Notermann albeit a year older was a pretty good player as well and they were both probably products of a great duo playing an average schedule in high school hockey whereas Tage definitely played much better competition and did very well coming out of his only year playing top-level (generous) 16U hockey
William H Bonney
Registered User
Don't forget Tage came from the NTDP to NCAA. He started to really show potential there, but he was buried on a deep '97 team. I generally agree with your point, but if there wasn't evidence that Tage had a "high-end scorer | elite scoring threat | top six" potential (not that I think Tage was those things outside of maybe the top six potential if all went well), there wasn't evidence (at least that should have been believed) for Tufte having those labels either.
It's not about hindsight. If it was, Dallas should have run to the podium, yelled "DeBrincat" and laughed maniacally.
tealhockey
@overtheboards
- Jun 2, 2012
- 1,197
- 854
I was one of the first guys who thought Tage showed great potential back when he was in AAA but I do think there was more 'evidence' for Tufte's ability to be a prolific scorer. It probably didn't hold up under scrutiny like you said in junior he had under-whelming numbers but the USHL is a low-key tough league to break into. That said I think he actually dropped from what he might have done in 2016. If he was really a potential top six scorer, put up like 100 points in HS, he should have gone in the lottery. The red flags were probably factored in by then causing him to go so late, whereas Tage probably late-rose where everyone could tell he was going to be a player but weren't sure just how serious, not unlike Beecher this past draft.
I mention the hind-sight thing because it's easy now to be like "well they both could score" but at the time only one had a pedigree for putting the puck in the net, but the eye test showed that Tage had that ability too even if he was buried. He just never screamed potential super-star to me at least. Tufte did show some glimpses of crazy potential. It would have been interesting to see where Tage would have gone had he played for Salisbury as he was supposed to before the NTDP scooped him
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