Prospect Info: Luke Hughes - part III

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The human brain has all kind of biases, but the human brain, while terrible at processing logic or remembering facts, is extremely good at recognizing patterns. Which is why we are still so much better than even the most powerful computers at recognizing things. It's also why oncology still works with human doctors (even though they are spending billions to develop cancerous cell recognition software, but 99% of the work is still made by pathologists that look at cells with their microscopes ). It's also why computers suck so much at reading emotions. The human brain, but actually the mammal brain in general, is ultra specialized at pattern recognition, it's a huge evolutionary advantage.

Part of what makes us so good at pattern recognition is that our brains will tend to fill up missing data (which is can draw a stylized cat with a couple of lines and you will still recognize it's a cat.) This is a feature, not a bug. Of course it means that if we are unaware of our biases we might have a tendency to make up stuff, but people who are used to work with data learn to avoid those biases.

Now, models based on historical data are a whole other story. It's actually trivial to make models that outperforms passed decisions, it doesn't mean it's useful at all to predict the future.
This is tantamount to saying, "we can never use data from the past to make predictions about the future". You could say the same for the eye-test. No reason to believe that seeing repeatable good skating technique from past successful players can inform what we see about players' skating today!

The model I cited did not have any information that wasn't available at the time (literally points). And it still outperformed about half the teams in the NHL, with millions of dollars and teams of scouts at their disposal. Are these scouts uniquely bad at pattern recognition? Or are people just not as good at it as you think.
 
This is tantamount to saying, "we can never use data from the past to make predictions about the future". You could say the same for the eye-test. No reason to believe that seeing repeatable good skating technique from past successful players can inform what we see about players' skating today!

The model I cited did not have any information that wasn't available at the time (literally points). And it still outperformed about half the teams in the NHL, with millions of dollars and teams of scouts at their disposal. Are these scouts uniquely bad at pattern recognition? Or are people just not as good at it as you think.

BTW it has been a very long time since I read this article but I remember having huge problems with the methodology (and it had nothing to do with the fact that they just picked CHL forwards). But I just found the article and re-read it and can't imagine what the issue would've been.

EDIT: Okay, I found it, it was in the second iteration that I took issue with it.
 
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Crazy how young he is. I know some are disappointed that he’s going back to Michigan, but it should really benefit him in the long run


I believe the last NCAA defenseman to sign after their freshman year was Noah Hanifin.

top 15 pick NCAA defensemen who stayed in college two years since then:
Zach Werenski
Charlie McAvoy
Cale Makar
Quinn Hughes
Cam York
Jake Sanderson
Owen Power
Luke Hughes
 
Since Luke just aged out of this draft class by a couple days, do you guys think if he were draft eligible this year that there would be talk of him going #1 overall over Wright?
 
Since Luke just aged out of this draft class by a couple days, do you guys think if he were draft eligible this year that there would be talk of him going #1 overall over Wright?

I think at least the media would put him somewhere between Nemec and Jiricek, whatever that would be #3 to #7 or so. And it would be mostly based on their World Championship performance.
 
I think at least the media would put him somewhere between Nemec and Jiricek, whatever that would be #3 to #7 or so. And it would be mostly based on their World Championship performance.
I dunno, a tick under a ppg, with a goal heavy split, and very much a creator of offense as opposed to a facilitator, as a college freshman is pretty dang impressive. Plus the name.
 
I dunno, a tick under a ppg, with a goal heavy split, and very much a creator of offense as opposed to a facilitator, as a college freshman is pretty dang impressive. Plus the name.

For sure, I mean I think the Devils would very likely pick him, but I'm not sure other scouts and especially the media and fans would rank him that high. They're always more focused on recent events, and I think Slaf and Nemec had a much better WC showing.

But glad we already got him, fwiw personally I'd rather give up the 2OA pick than Hughes and wouldn't even have to think about it.
 
Since Luke just aged out of this draft class by a couple days, do you guys think if he were draft eligible this year that there would be talk of him going #1 overall over Wright?

There’d be talk sure but he wouldn’t go over Wright
 
For sure, I mean I think the Devils would very likely pick him, but I'm not sure other scouts and especially the media and fans would rank him that high. They're always more focused on recent events, and I think Slaf and Nemec had a much better WC showing.

But glad we already got him, fwiw personally I'd rather give up the 2OA pick than Hughes and wouldn't even have to think about it.
The Hughes factor makes trading Luke a non possibility.

Take that out of the conversation? I'd probably still agree, the only caveat being, him being a LHD a position we have fairly young guys at the NHL as well as good looking prospects on the way. For the right guy I'd guess I'm move him.....except for the Hughes factor.
 
After that season at Michigan, I’d believe he’d go number 1, even to the habs. Yeah he’s be an old draftee this year, and yeah Michigan is kind of stacked, but he just had a freshman season as good or better than the high profile college boys like fox and makar did.
 
After that season at Michigan, I’d believe he’d go number 1, even to the habs. Yeah he’s be an old draftee this year, and yeah Michigan is kind of stacked, but he just had a freshman season as good or better than the high profile college boys like fox and makar did.

His season was legitimately great but also overrated because of the SH%. If he finishes with a reasonable SH% then the production drops from 39 in 41 to probably around 28 in 41. That’s slightly worse than Quinn’s 29 in 37. I don’t think he’d end up going over Wright. At 2 though yeah I see it in a draft like this
 
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His season was legitimately great but also overrated because of the SH%. If he finishes with a reasonable SH% then the production drops from 39 in 41 to probably around 28 in 41. That’s slightly worse than Quinn’s 29 in 37. I don’t think he’d end up going over Wright. At 2 though yeah I see it.
Yeah but then you factor the success the other hugheses have seen, track record of success, and luke is ~4 inches taller than his brother. I think the upside is simply too tantalizing, even for a team without a hughes already.

Impossible to say, of course,
 
Yeah but then you factor the success the other hugheses have seen, track record of success, and luke is ~4 inches taller than his brother. I think the upside is simply too tantalizing, even for a team without a hughes already.

Impossible to say, of course,

I’m not really going to factor in what his brothers have done. Sure the upside for Luke is really high. If he hits his ceiling it’s probably like a top 10 D. On the other hand Wright’s ceiling is a top 10 C and I think outside of a situation like we’re in where we already have the 2 great young Cs then teams will go with the C.
 
When does Michigan begin to release their rosters with lineup ideas? August?

Really interested to know if Luke takes Owen Power's top LD spot

Hoping hes okay with left defense because if not we have a major logjam
 
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