Luke Hughes has taken a massive step forward

[WarriorofTime]

For the better part of the past month he's been one of the best all around 5v5 dmen in the league, with a 67.8% expected goal share in his last 10 games, and a league leading 2.13 expected goal differential/60 in that span.

And in the last handful of games, he's taken his game to a level beyond even that.

Could be a big step forward, could be a hot stretch. The sample size is so small that I think we're still in a wait and see mode before making a big declaration. We can pretty safely say he's "not a bust", I don't know beyond that at the moment.

Nice to see him playing well all the same.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Does he have the potential to turn out to be a better player than his brothers?

That’s a really high bar and probably not a fair expectation. But looking at raw talent and tools, I think he could at least be on that same elite tier as them. The thing he has on his brothers is that he’s 6’2. So if everything comes together and he puts together a consistent Hughes brothers game breaking talent andddd he’s got size to boot. He can be scary good.

 

[RickyLafleur]

the 2021 draft will yield 4 #1 dmen from the top 10 alone...unreal top 10 so far. gigantic L for ottawa though

A little too early to make that proclamation. Boucher was a terrible pick with and without hindsight. That topic has been beaten to death.

 

[Herby]

Does he have the potential to turn out to be a better player than his brothers?

Very very unlikely, but that is a very high standard.

Great to see how well he has done, when he was 15/16 he was considered to be far off of the other two, and it's way closer than people thought it was going to be.

 

[Forge]

I'm happy with him as a fan so far. Hopefully he continues to get better.

I'm not going to be shocked by the contract he gets

 

[MasterofGrond]

“Hughes brother but big” is a pretty insane ceiling.

How achievable that is remains to be seen. He might never be the offensive juggernaut his brothers are, but the defensive progress is wild.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Does he have the potential to turn out to be a better player than his brothers?

For sure he does.

Both Jack and Quinn experienced an exponential evolution in their games after their 2nd NHL season. Particularly with Quinn and his defensive ability.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Luke goes through the same type of process by the end of this season and next season. Of the two brothers, he has far less holes at 20/21 than they had. I really don’t see many holes at all, aside from maybe physicality and obviously needs more experience.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Quinn is a top 3 dman and Jack is a top 5-10 center. I highly doubt he reaches those levels but he is really freaking good lol

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Does this coincide with Pesce coming back from injury and being paired with Pesce?

Not taking anything away from Hughes as he is very talented. When NJ signed Pesce, I thought he was a perfect fit to compliment the guys they had. A defense first, responsible defenseman that allows his partner some freedom to play their games and cover mistakes.

IMO, he's a big reason Skjei had such success in Carolina and Skjei even said so that (paraphrasing) he knew Pesce had his back so he could be more free to play his game and take more chances.

I mean judging from the statistical data above it seems to suggest Luke is holding his own rather than being carried. In fact, he’s probably the one doing more of the heavy lifting as of late.

Yep, like the above poster said, Luke has been doing more of the heavy lifting of the pair but Pesce has been a perfect compliment. Most of us Devils fans knew Luke could be a Makar type with a defensively responsible guy, I still worry about Pesce long term but he's been f***ing nails for us this year especially on the PK.

Quinn is a top 3 dman and Jack is a top 5-10 center. I highly doubt he reaches those levels but he is really freaking good lol

Quinn is the best dman in the league and Jack's probably the most electrifying player in the league outside of McDavid, it's not gonna a slight at Luke if he never gets there. I'll just take him being tremendous while going under the radar of his 2 other brothers.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Watching him close gaps defending the rush is cinema. His skating is just otherworldly.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well, perhaps you're right about this. His QoT is the strongest on the team out of all defensemen, though, and his QoC is the weakest, meaning he gets the most sheltered minutes of all 6 defensemen, at least in theory. I've not validated the effect these have, but somehow, my vibe is to at least be moderately skeptical at this point.

Now, I'm not saying he's been bad by any means. But I'll wait for more evidence before declaring him to be, say, close to his older brother.

He's getting the same deployments as Pesce, middle of the road. You're really grasping at straws here and completely overlooking his poor puck luck as well. He's not being sheltered in any way, shape, or form

It's very simple:
Kovacevich and Siegs are being deployed as the shut down pair (hence why their QOC OFF is so high)
Hamilton and Dillon are being deployed as a two way pair
Hughes and Pesce are being used as a two way pair

Pesce and Hughes have been deployed as the top 5v5 pairing in the last 10 games, and they've been getting more d zone starts than o zone starts:

Watching him close gaps defending the rush is cinema. His skating is just otherworldly.

It's crazy how much more impressive it is in person.

 

[NJDevilsFan21]

Essentially, you're focusing on a clear peak and assuming that it's the result of improvement, instead of being a result of variance—a hot streak.

It's like he suddenly decided he is going to play like his older brothers. He wants to control the play, make plays, and is doing a great job at it. I remember when Jack had a similar "confidence transition", and I believe it may be happening to Luke now. The eye test, much like with Jack, does not fail and in fact tells us there are even better things coming.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Could be a big step forward, could be a hot stretch. The sample size is so small that I think we're still in a wait and see mode before making a big declaration. We can pretty safely say he's "not a bust", I don't know beyond that at the moment.

Nice to see him playing well all the same.

He was pretty great as a rookie, and stepped up as the team's number 1 for a signficant stretch of the season due to injuries. And now he's building on that.

He's already a top pairing defenseman++.

It's like he suddenly decided he is going to play like his older brothers. He wants to control the play, make plays, and is doing a great job at it. I remember when Jack had a similar "confidence transition", and I believe it may be happening to Luke now. The eye test, much like with Jack, does not fail and in fact tells us there are even better things coming.

Yeah something has clicked as of late. Dude's been taking over offensive zone shifts on a consistent basis.

 

[Hisch13r]

Does he have the potential to turn out to be a better player than his brothers?

I mean he could but I think it's unlikely. Quinn's a Norris winner already and a Hart contender. I feel confident Jack's going to be a Hart contender at some point as well. It's harder to compare across positions it's harder to compare Jack to the other 2 but when it comes Luke vs Quinn, Quinn's the best Dman in the world right now. I think Luke will be better defensively but I doubt he reaches the same offensive heights. I think Luke could definitely be a Norris contender in his career and have years where he's better than Quinn but I wouldn't bet on him being the better player when comparing careers.

He was pretty great as a rookie, and stepped up as the team's number 1 for a signficant stretch of the season due to injuries. And now he's building on that.

He's already a top pairing defenseman++.


Yeah something has clicked as of late. Dude's been taking over offensive zone shifts on a consistent basis.

He's basically impossible to contain when he gets the puck at the point. He can still skate himself into some problems and into traffic with his next moves after beating the forward at the point but it won't take him long to figure that part out and regularly convert the activations into grade A looks

It's still only 19 games so fine but it'd be one thing if the defense was the thing that has really had the uptick lately while the offense has been there the whole year. It'd be easier to buy the defense as a potential hot stretch but his defense has been standout all year and the recent offensive stretch isn't something new for him.

 

[Hisch13r]

For sure he does.

Both Jack and Quinn experienced an exponential evolution in their games after their 2nd NHL season. Particularly with Quinn and his defensive ability.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Luke goes through the same type of process by the end of this season and next season. Of the two brothers, he has far less holes at 20/21 than they had. I really don’t see many holes at all, aside from maybe physicality and obviously needs more experience.

I don't think Jack had really any holes at 20/21. That was 21-22 and 22-23. He wiped out all the doubts people had about him at that point. The like 3 main criticisms of him as a prospect were that he'd be a Kane type all offense no defense guy, wouldn't be a goal scorer, was too small and wouldn't handle physicality well.

As a 19 year old in 2021 he wiped out the defensive concerns as he was fantastic defensively. Outside of last years nightmare he has continued to be a plus defender every year since.

He wiped out the goal scoring concerns when he put up 26 goals in 49 games as a 20 year old in 21-22 and 23 in 36 when he was actually fully healthy that year. Then followed that up with a 43 goal year.

He completely squashed any of the nonsensical too small and soft concerns with his performance in the playoffs in 22-23.

 

[Forge]

I don't think Jack had really any holes at 20/21. That was 21-22 and 22-23. He wiped out all the doubts people had about him at that point. The like 3 main criticisms of him as a prospect were that he'd be a Kane type all offense no defense guy, wouldn't be a goal scorer, was too small and wouldn't handle physicality well.

As a 19 year old in 2021 he wiped out the defensive concerns as he was fantastic defensively. Outside of last years nightmare he has continued to be a plus defender every year since.

He wiped out the goal scoring concerns when he put up 26 goals in 49 games as a 20 year old in 21-22 and 23 in 36 when he was actually fully healthy that year. Then followed that up with a 43 goal year.

He completely squashed any of the nonsensical too small and soft concerns with his performance in the playoffs in 22-23.

Still turns too wide

 

[RedHawkDown]

A little too early to make that proclamation. Boucher was a terrible pick with and without hindsight. That topic has been beaten to death.

I don't think so. Hughes is trending to be a clear #1. Edvinsson has been Detroit's best defenseman, better than Seider, and should clearly be a #1 and I think better than Seider long-term. Clarke is an offensive beast and should be at least a good #2 and #1 if his D play improves. And Power has the potential too, obviously.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Does this coincide with Pesce coming back from injury and being paired with Pesce?

Not taking anything away from Hughes as he is very talented. When NJ signed Pesce, I thought he was a perfect fit to compliment the guys they had. A defense first, responsible defenseman that allows his partner some freedom to play their games and cover mistakes.

IMO, he's a big reason Skjei had such success in Carolina and Skjei even said so that (paraphrasing) he knew Pesce had his back so he could be more free to play his game and take more chances.

Absolutely. Pesce has been the perfect partner for him. Luke's offense early on wasn't there. However his offensive game has picked up as of late on top of the great strides he's taken defensively.

 

[mphmiles]

I remember when most of this board was convinced that he'd never be able to play defense for some reason.

 

[Hisch13r]

I remember when most of this board was convinced that he'd never be able to play defense for some reason.

It was weird with him because in his DY I quite liked his defense. Then his 2 years at Michigan I really didn't like it. Then immediately upon stepping foot in the NHL I thought he defended better than he did in Michigan. It still wasn't great or anything but clearly better. This year it looks fantastic. Seems like he was really just trying to expand his offensive game at Michigan and didn't really care all that much about defense

 

[elmaco]

Hughes are the new Staal brothers.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

It was weird with him because in his DY I quite liked his defense. Then his 2 years at Michigan I really didn't like it. Then immediately upon stepping foot in the NHL I thought he defended better than he did in Michigan. It still wasn't great or anything but clearly better. This year it looks fantastic. Seems like he was really just trying to expand his offensive game at Michigan and didn't really care all that much about defense

I've noticed this a lot with high level defensive prospects. I had similar concerns with Heiskanen and McAvoy, which they obviously overcame immediately.

 

[dgibb10]

Well, perhaps you're right about this. His QoT is the strongest on the team out of all defensemen, though, and his QoC is the weakest, meaning he gets the most sheltered minutes of all 6 defensemen, at least in theory. I've not validated the effect these have, but somehow, my vibe is to at least be moderately skeptical at this point.

Now, I'm not saying he's been bad by any means. But I'll wait for more evidence before declaring him to be, say, close to his older brother.

This is every NJD dman QoC since he came back. There is 0 sheltering going on. He is playing the most minutes, and they aren't meaningfully different from the other pairings.

The other two pairings have boosted full year numbers because Nemec and Casey as a pairing were playing very sheltered minutes, meaning they had to pick up the slack early.

He's getting the same deployments as Pesce, middle of the road. You're really grasping at straws here and completely overlooking his poor puck luck as well. He's not being sheltered in any way, shape, or form

It's very simple:
Kovacevich and Siegs are being deployed as the shut down pair (hence why their QOC OFF is so high)
Hamilton and Dillon are being deployed as a two way pair
Hughes and Pesce are being used as a two way pair

Pesce and Hughes have been deployed as the top 5v5 pairing in the last 10 games, and they've been getting more d zone starts than o zone starts:
View attachment 939347


It's crazy how much more impressive it is in person.

Casey and Nemec were getting sheltered to start the year. Other pairings (specifically siegs and kovy) picked up the slack then boosting their full year numbers.

 

[Goptor]

But what is his embarrassing goalies/60 stat?

Thats the only one that matters for a Hughes brother.

 

[Xirik]

Odd that the Hab's fans that like to bring Luke Hughes up randomly haven't chimed in.