Luke Gazdic: Two fights in last two games, two clear victories..

[Moose Coleman]

I've discovered the way to fix ask the oilers problems.

Must trade for Stephane DaCosta. Horcoffian levels of Corsi! We couldn't lose with him!

Hall for DaCosta!

Corsi is a meaningless stat that has relative correlation with winning. It's a poor attempt at quantifying possession and has absolutely zero predictive quality.

Until it can do anything side from sort players blindly from those that play on winning teams to those playing on losing teams it is as meaningful as plus minus.

What does this even mean?

If you couldn't make criticisms at Gazdic, he wouldn't be just a 4th liner. It's not like he is a Stortini or something, this guy is actually a decent 4th liner, all things considered.

Only difference between him and Stortini is Gazdic throws punches. Other than that, what's the difference?

 

[BowDangles]

Gazdic not on the ice this morning.... wonder what is going on? Maybe hurt? Maybe traded? Maybe signing contract extension?

 

[Musashi]

Only difference between him and Stortini is Gazdic throws punches. Other than that, what's the difference?

That Gazdic can strike some fear or intimidate other players because he can actually punish them in a fight. Kind of an important element if you want to play an enforcer role.

 

[iCanada]

What does this even mean?



Only difference between him and Stortini is Gazdic throws punches. Other than that, what's the difference?

If you sort the highest plus minus and the highest corsi, abd then group players each team together based on the standings you get roughly the same thing.

It doesn't even really sort by quality even. A fourth liner on Ottawa is top five.

 

[Moose Coleman]

That Gazdic can strike some fear or intimidate other players because he can actually punish them in a fight. Kind of an important element if you want to play an enforcer role.

But not at all important to anything relating to winning hockey games.

 

[Moose Coleman]

If you sort the highest plus minus and the highest corsi, abd then group players each team together based on the standings you get roughly the same thing.

It doesn't even really sort by quality even. A fourth liner on Ottawa is top five.

I still don't follow. How about a link or a chart or something?

I suspect you're asking the stat do do something it was never intended to do.

 

[Musashi]

But not at all important to anything relating to winning hockey games.

Yup, 4th line enforcers: The difference makers to winning and losing hockey games.

 

[Moose Coleman]

Yup, 4th line enforcers: The difference makers to winning and losing hockey games.

Straw man. Thanks for trying, though.

 

[Musashi]

Straw man. Thanks for trying, though.

Don't see how I misinterpreted your argument. But if you feel the need to try and pick on a 4th line rookie who has the right attitude to improve and tries to get this dead weight team going by doing the most dangerous job in hockey with success, good on you man.

 

[McTedi]

Straw man. Thanks for trying, though.

Kinda like using corsi numbers to define an enforcers role. The kid is young has some skill and is tough, and probably has one of the better attitudes on the team. I kind of like the fact that someone on the team is finally standing up for his teammates.

 

[RebuildTheRebuild]

Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 8s
Gazdic has mild case of food poisoning and will be game time decision... #Oilers

For those wondering why Gazdic is not on the ice.

 

[Moose Coleman]

Don't see how I misinterpreted your argument.

By suggesting it was about 4th liners being "the difference makers to winning and losing hockey games."

A fourth liner alone probably won't be the difference in winning or losing a lot of games, but you can't really argue that a guy who appears to have an outsized impact on shots against considering his limited minutes, who has zero offense to his game despite favourable zone starts and matchups is going to have zero negative impact on results. That's not even factoring in opportunity costs (his five minutes a game and soft zone starts could theoretically going to a better player who could actually make a difference).

But if you feel the need to try and pick on a 4th line rookie who has the right attitude to improve and tries to get this dead weight team going by doing the most dangerous job in hockey with success, good on you man

Just calling a spade a spade (or in this case, a bad hockey player a bad hockey player).

Kinda like using corsi numbers to define an enforcers role.

The #s don't say anything about his abilities or role as an enforcer. They do shed light on his abilities as a hockey player though.

 

[Musashi]

By suggesting it was about 4th liners being "the difference makers to winning and losing hockey games."

A fourth liner alone probably won't be the difference in winning or losing a lot of games, but you can't really argue that a guy who appears to have an outsized impact on shots against considering his limited minutes, who has zero offense to his game despite favourable zone starts and matchups is going to have zero negative impact on results. That's not even factoring in opportunity costs (his five minutes a game and soft zone starts could theoretically going to a better player who could actually make a difference).

Just calling a spade a spade (or in this case, a bad hockey player a bad hockey player)..

If only a young hard working rookie had no chance at ever improving. Is giving him another year on the fourth line really going to be detrimental to the impact of this team as a whole to see if he can't progress? Might be worth exploring since we already know what he can do with his fists.

 

[Moose Coleman]

If only a young hard working rookie had no chance at ever improving. Is giving him another year on the fourth line really going to be detrimental to the impact of this team as a whole to see if he can't progress? Might be worth exploring since we already know what he can do with his fists.

Stortini 2.0: Punchy Bear.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

If only a young hard working rookie had no chance at ever improving. Is giving him another year on the fourth line really going to be detrimental to the impact of this team as a whole to see if he can't progress? Might be worth exploring since we already know what he can do with his fists.

He is a rookie and has been slowly improving all year. Just remember he started the freaking season with Will ****ing Acton as his center. There is no reason why we cant have him play on the team for another year to see if he improves, if not sure replace him but for now he fits his role perfectly.

 

[Red Deer Rebel]

Martin Marincin has the best "Corsi Relative" in the league for players who have played more than 20 games (+27.9):

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

Much better than Sidney Crosby's +17.5.

Shea Weber is a liability as well according to Corsi, so Gazdic's in good company.

 

[Moose Coleman]

Martin Marincin has the best "Corsi Relative" in the league for players who have played more than 20 games (+27.9):

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

Much better than Sidney Crosby's +17.5.

Shea Weber is a liability as well according to Corsi, so Gazdic's in good company.

That is what those numbers say, yes.

Is there a point?

 

[iCanada]

That is what those numbers say, yes.

Is there a point?

That Corsi is stupid?

 

[Paralyzer008]

Martin Marincin has the best "Corsi Relative" in the league for players who have played more than 20 games (+27.9):

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&s=29&f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67

Much better than Sidney Crosby's +17.5.

Shea Weber is a liability as well according to Corsi, so Gazdic's in good company.

and you clearly don't know how to interpret advanced stats

According to ExtraSkater, Marincin's 5 on 5 CorsiRel is 11.7%. This is because he's at about a 50% rate, something that an average playoff team performs with. Shows you how badly everyone else is getting outchanced.

Crosby is at at a 53% Corsi 5 on 5, with a 6.9% Corsi Rel. Considering how he faces top quality competition, and considering his points output, he's certainly elite. Imagine him with better wingers!

Shea Weber has a 48.2% Corsi for 5 on 5, which is only -0.2 relative to his team's Corsi. He plays tough competition and hard minutes, so this isn't bad whatsoever. It does suggest he isn't as dominant as some suggest, his Corsi Rel has dropped since his partner Suter left him.

Thanks for your analysis.

 

[McTedi]

That is what those numbers say, yes.

Is there a point?

The point is that it doesn't necessarily determine a player's ability or usefulness to his team. You are the one who stood behind those numbers a few posts back, remember?

 

[Suxnet]

He's a good face puncher. I like him.

 

[McTedi]

and you clearly don't know how to interpret advanced stats

According to ExtraSkater, Marincin's 5 on 5 CorsiRel is 11.7%. This is because he's at about a 50% rate, something that an average playoff team performs with. Shows you how badly everyone else is getting outchanced.

Crosby is at at a 53% Corsi 5 on 5, with a 6.9% Corsi Rel. Considering how he faces top quality competition, and considering his points output, he's certainly elite. Imagine him with better wingers!

Shea Weber has a 48.2% Corsi for 5 on 5, which is only -0.2 relative to his team's Corsi. He plays tough competition and hard minutes, so this isn't bad whatsoever. It does suggest he isn't as dominant as some suggest, his Corsi Rel has dropped since his partner Suter left him.

Thanks for your analysis.

Yaaaay, hockey has now become math class.

 

[Moose Coleman]

Yaaaay, hockey has now become math class.

"These stats I don't understand are stupid I tell you!"

 

[iCanada]

"These stats I don't understand are stupid I tell you!"

Who said anything about not understanding them?

Hockey as a sport is not quantifiable by stats like Baseball is. I understand all of those stats, just a lot of more of Hockey is up in air and "puck luck" is a considerably larger thing. In Baseball each play happens 1 after the other whereas in hockey mistakes can happen simultaneously and compound in a way that Statistics cannot realistically model. Even then, nothing is concrete like in baseball.

In Baseball its binary; either you base or you don't. 1 or 2. So while base % is kind of an obscure stat, nothing is arbitrary, there is no judgement call. But with Corsi, how far does a shot have to be for it to be a shot? Who counts the shots in every game? Is it the same person or is it the very much varied guys that each team employs? Is it a shot if someone goes to shoot but its gets stick checked before it leaves the blade? Is this ruling consistent? Are these stat totals audited? If I shoot, and it is redirected by another player how many shots is that? What if the opponent redirects first?

Even disregarding the huge holes in the stats, the rather large inaccuracies introduced via the opinionated nature of the stat, unlike every other proven statistical model that anyone of note follows, it cannot be used in a predictive manner. Somehow, the leafs still win despite having the lowest Corsi numbers in the league; New Jersey has the second best Corsi numbers in the league, and are completely out of a playoff position.

Not to mention, there is not a single player who has a predictable Corsi-curve over a span of 5 years. No one has identical Corsi from year to year despite having nearly Identical Box-car numbers over a long period of time. Corsi cannot even predict CORSI.

Sure its an advanced stat, but as far as I am concerned, it is a "stupid" advanced stat. It does not under any circumstance give you a realistic view of what a player gives you.

 

[McTedi]

"These stats I don't understand are stupid I tell you!"

Did I call them stupid? I said I didn't agree with everything they determine about players. Comprehension doesn't seem like an important thing for you though.