5x5 is the boilerplate standard for goalies like him. If the Caps dont give him that someone else will.
If he was into 5x5 it probably would have been done in the summer.
Joey Daccord got 5x5 after one good season because Seattle knew that if he proved it again, the price would go up.
Thompson has two good seasons as the 1B in Vegas and now he has a third half season where he has been elite.
The tiers now are basically average to below average starters get 5M to 6.5M.
Very good starters get 8M.
Franchise goalies get 12M .
Hellebuyck gets 12M if he is a UFA now. He suffered from bad timing.
If Thompson finishes this season at his current pace, he is getting 8M. Caps likely get a haircut for taking the risk of signing him early.
Something to consider is that he may want max term, which means he can't sign until after the TDL.
There is no chance he signs for 5M right now. That was likely the number in the summer before he has this season.