Lockout is Over.....2013 Preseason Talk!

[Rhett4]

In other words, the Sabres get $10m of potential cap liability with Ehrhoff. He was paid $10m in Year 1, and $8m in Year 2. Thus, $6m in cap advantage in Year 1, and $4m in cap advantage of Year 2. Let's say the Sabres trade him after Year 5, and do not retain any cap hit. That $10m cap advantage sticks with Buffalo for the time being, pending Ehrhoff's contract going to term.

Assuming Ehrhoff retired after Year 7 having collected $37m of the $40m owed, that $10m cap advantage to Buffalo would be spread out over the remaining term (three years). Thus, the Sabres would have $3.33m in cap dead space on their cap for those three seasons. The team that had Ehrhoff when he retired would be on the hook for that remaining $3m over three years, thus $1m in dead space for the final three years of the deal.

I think buying him out in two offseasons with one of the amnesty buyouts is perfectly reasonable. You still get two more years (well a short season and a full) out of him but have 0 threat of dead cap space down the line.

Bettman really went out of his way to bone the big markets with that recapture clause.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

So Erhroff earned 18 million in the first two years and ate up 8 million in cap space. So he has a savings of 10 million, which would be divided by the number of years left on the contract if he retired early. So if he retired with one year to go, the Sabres would be on the hook for 10 million in dead cap space for a year? Someone please jump in if I'm reading this wrong.

You have to look at the whole contract at that point--the totality of what the savings are. The savings are right now 10M, but once you get into the years where cap hit > salary, the "savings" gets reduced eventually to 0 (when the contract runs out).

If he retired with 1 year to go, he would have earned 39M with a cap hit of 36M, so the "savings" the Sabres would be on the hook for would be only 3M.

The article was suggesting how it would break down if Luongo was traded--the portion of the savings from the Vancouver years goes against Vancouver's cap, the rest of it to Toronto.

 

[Rhett4]

You have to look at the whole contract at that point--the totality of what the savings are. The savings are right now 10M, but once you get into the years where cap hit > salary, the "savings" gets reduced eventually to 0 (when the contract runs out).

If he retired with 1 year to go, he would have earned 39M with a cap hit of 36M, so the "savings" the Sabres would be on the hook for would be only 3M.

Ah, OK. I read that it was based on the first two years only, but that might have just been an example. What you said makes more sense.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Ah, OK. I read that it was based on the first two years only, but that might have just been an example. What you said makes more sense.

Yeah, the article was looking at how it would break down if Luongo got traded after 2 years with the Canucks--both the Canucks and the team he gets traded to have their own share of the "savings" dead space then when Luongo retires.

 

[Rhett4]

Yeah, the article was looking at how it would break down if Luongo got traded after 2 years with the Canucks--both the Canucks and the team he gets traded to have their own share of the "savings" dead space then when Luongo retires.

Let's hope Myers doesn't retire

 

[SabresFanNorthPortFL]

IMO, I think there will be one trade before the sEason starts. Who that will be, I don't know. No Vanek, Pomms, or blockbuster but one trade. Because every year under Pegula is a "We're in it to win it," I can not imagine Grigs ever goes back to juniors, he's too hot right now. Burning a year is no longer an issue. Plus, I still see "pairs" from last year.

Vanek-CoHo
Pomms-Leino
F-E-S

I see Ott as the compliment/protector to Vanek.

I see Pomms "coddling" Grigs, it makes too much sense with Leino.

I see 3 lines, if stayed healthy, kind of balanced, youthful exuberance, talent, and kind of hard to play against. Kind of rolling 3 solid lines.

I see a sprint, with kids leading a nice playoff charge.

I see the departure of "uninspired" Roy, and the addition of "heart" Ott, as a "kick" this team needed.

I see Miller being on.

I just see this lineup being in the thick bc of youth taking over.

Vanek-Hodgson-Ott
Foligno-Ennis-Stafford (hopefully in the trade for Ryan)
Leino-Grigs-Pomminville

I'm not unhappy with that.

 

[BuiltTagonTough]

I believe you are right, but I do like ottsabrefan's breakdown better...

I think 7 games vs division and 2 vs rest of conference is TOO lopsided...

It seriously gives an advantage to a strong team in a weak division like when Washington was the only good team in the South a few years ago.

 

[Robert]

48 games, no games vs the West, Ryan Miller and Lindy Ruff... I'd say the playoffs are close to a lock... I'm glad I kept my 10 pack...

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

What does Ruff have to do with making the playoffs? It's not like he pissed away 20+ games of last season doing things like playing MAG instead of Ehrhoff/Myers or a too-injured-to-produce Derek Roy as our #1 all-situations forward or anything...

 

[ottsabrefan]

Link?

Last I saw, it was gonna be 7x4 and 2x10.........

It was Bob McKenzie's twitter. Still speculation but it makes the most sense as 7 games per team in division is too much.

 

[S319R11S16]

It was Bob McKenzie's twitter. Still speculation but it makes the most sense as 7 games per team in division is too much.

Yea that's too much in the division. The way things are going to be anyways, non divisional games are almost just as important.

 

[S319R11S16]

Man, I hope to god we don't have a lame duck start. All the hype of getting going and then wham. 1-7 out of the gate. Season over.

 

[Jame]

48 games, no games vs the West, Ryan Miller and Lindy Ruff... I'd say the playoffs are close to a lock... I'm glad I kept my 10 pack...

does not compute

 

[brian_griffin]

...

Vanek-CoHo
Pomms-Leino
F-E-S

I see Ott as the compliment/protector to Vanek.

I see Pomms "coddling" Grigs, it makes too much sense with Leino.

I see 3 lines, if stayed healthy, kind of balanced, youthful exuberance, talent, and kind of hard to play against. Kind of rolling 3 solid lines.

I see a sprint, with kids leading a nice playoff charge.

I see the departure of "uninspired" Roy, and the addition of "heart" Ott, as a "kick" this team needed.

I see Miller being on.

I just see this lineup being in the thick bc of youth taking over.

Vanek-Hodgson-Ott
Foligno-Ennis-Stafford (hopefully in the trade for Ryan)
Leino-Grigs-Pomminville

I'm not unhappy with that.

I see a team with no real go-to superstar(s) to get a key goal when down 1, tied, or leading by 1 to put a game away. I see a team which will have to play as a team to win, but which won't have played as a team. I see a team whose forwards are neither well-rounded offensively nor defensively. I see Miller who has not played at all during the lockout and may crap the bed for all we know. I see key players (CoHo, Myers, Gerbe) who have been injured.

But, I do see some youngsters I have high hopes for... next year.

IMO, this season's a toss away emotionally for me. If they do well, great, if they don't, then tank badly, please.

48 games, no games vs the West, Ryan Miller and Lindy Ruff... I'd say the playoffs are close to a lock... I'm glad I kept my 10 pack...

How about:
~40 games
Add another playoff round.
Bottom team in each division eliminated from playoff round.
Seed across conferences.
Division winners and highest-point #2 in each conference get 1st round bye (8 bye teams total).
Teams #9 thru #24 play preliminary round.
8 winners play the 8 byes for Conf Quarters (but seed across conferences)
8 winners from that for Conf semifinals (but seed across conferences)
4 winners from that for semifinals (but seed across conferences)
2 winners play Cup finals.

Wales and Campbell trophies go to the last remaining non-Cup-champion team from each conference, when such team is eliminated. In the event all teams from a conference are eliminated in the same round, make them co-champions.

Or, skip the Wales and Campbell.

Or, throw a bone and give the Wales to the Leafs, and the Campbell to the Jackets, so their fans have something to talk about, not linked at all to their playoff winnings, just be done with it, and let the rest of the NHL play for the Cup.

 

[Woodhouse]

Regier will be on Hockey Hotline at 11:30am. There's also a 2:00pm presser today. WGR will air both:

John Vogl ‏@BuffNewsVogl
Sabres will indeed have news conference with Darcy Regier and Ted Black at 2 this afternoon.

Link: https://twitter.com/BuffNewsVogl/status/288653454203826176

John Vogl ‏@BuffNewsVogl
Sabres news conference will likely center around on-ice matters. Lack of schedule (which may not come till Thursday) hinders plans for fans.

Link: https://twitter.com/BuffNewsVogl/status/288655177442009088

 

[Zip15]

You have to look at the whole contract at that point--the totality of what the savings are. The savings are right now 10M, but once you get into the years where cap hit > salary, the "savings" gets reduced eventually to 0 (when the contract runs out).

If he retired with 1 year to go, he would have earned 39M with a cap hit of 36M, so the "savings" the Sabres would be on the hook for would be only 3M.

The article was suggesting how it would break down if Luongo was traded--the portion of the savings from the Vancouver years goes against Vancouver's cap, the rest of it to Toronto.

Now for the worst case scenario: Buffalo trades Ehrhoff at some point prior to Year 7 of his deal, thereby mitigating none of the cap advantage they used in Years 1 and 2. Accordingly, the $10m number freezes with Buffalo. Ehrhoff plays Years 8 and 9 of his deal with a team other than the Sabres. Ehrhoff retires after Year 9. Thus, the recapture provision kicks in on Buffalo's $10m cap advantage, and it's spread out over one season. That means $10m in dead cap space!

I think you have two real options with Ehrhoff:

(1) Buy him out after the 2013-14 season. That obviates any worry of the recapture provision coming back and biting you.

(2) If you do not buy him out, you cannot trade him under any circumstances. You have to keep him and (a) recoup some of the savings in Years 7-10, thereby mitigating the cap advantage and subsequent dead cap space if he retires; and (b) hope he plays out his deal. In other words, you're kinda stuck with him if you don't buy him out in summer 2014.

It's a tough decision, but I lean toward Option 1 and buying him out after 2013-14. I think Ehrhoff was our best defenseman in the second half last year, but I don't think he's worth the type of future liability he would provide.

 

[MayDay]

48 games, no games vs the West, Ryan Miller and Lindy Ruff... I'd say the playoffs are close to a lock... I'm glad I kept my 10 pack...

I don't see why "no games vs the West" is necessarily an advantage.

The Sabres have had a pretty good record against the Western Conferece the last few years.

2011-12:
vs West: 11-6-1
vs East: 28-26-10

2010-11:
vs West: 10-5-3
vs East: 33-24-7

2009-10:
vs West: 10-5-3
vs East: 35-22-7

Over the past three seasons, the Sabres are a cumulative 31-16-7 against the West (0.646) and 96-72-24 against the East (0.593).

They actually have a better record against the West than against the East the last few years.

 

[Zip15]

I don't see why "no games vs the West" is necessarily an advantage.

The Sabres have had a pretty good record against the Western Conferece the last few years.

2011-12:
vs West: 11-6-1
vs East: 28-26-10

2010-13:
vs West: 10-5-3
vs East: 33-24-7

2009-10:
vs West: 10-5-3
vs East: 35-22-7

Over the past three seasons, the Sabres are a cumulative 31-16-7 against the West (0.646) and 96-72-24 against the East (0.593).

They actually have a better record against the West than against the East the last few years.

I was going to look this up myself, so thanks for saving me the time. I knew that quoted comment didn't sound right, as Buffalo has played pretty well against the Western Conference in recent years.

 

[TehDoak]

Wow I'm actually excited for the Darcy's Press conference. Jesus its been too long to wait and get no answers.

 

[CrankyJay]

Wow I'm actually excited for the Darcy's Press conference. Jesus its been too long to wait and get no answers.

What's the press conference about?

 

[Woodhouse]

Andrew Peters, who is running these skates, added on HH that he's seen Pominville and Regehr in town today -- I assume he saw them at the Northtown Center and expects them to partake in today's skate. He hasn't had a Gerbe sighting at the rink yet though.

***

As for roster talk, we likely lose out on some points with Roy gone, but Grigorenko is the wild card in replacing some of that production and I like the injection of some culture change with the additions of Ott and Scott.

And as for team expectations, I think having a healthy defense is critical, as when any D were out, specifically Ehrhoff and Myers, we really struggled. We were what, a ~.600 team with them in the lineup? That'd make us in contention for a playoff berth, but if we're relying on #8-10 D (Brennan, McNabb and Pardy), I expect them to struggle again.

Another thing to consider is that Enroth had a solid stint in Sweden (5-9, 2.31 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO), so he's ready to see pucks if Ruff needs to turn to him more often with a compressed schedule.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Another thing to consider is that Enroth had a solid stint in Sweden (5-9, 2.31 GAA, .917 SV%, 2 SO), so he's ready to see pucks if Ruff needs to turn to him more often with a compressed schedule.

I guess the lockout has been way too long to think that Ruff would come to his senses and not ride Miller into the ground even if he's not good.

 

[Woodhouse]

What's the press conference about?

Regier, Black to speak today:

The Sabres have called a 2 p.m. news conference in First Niagara Center with General Manager Darcy Regier and team president Ted Black to discuss various details of the upcoming shortened season. Several sources say the NHL schedule is at least another day -- and perhaps two days -- from being released.

Black will be heading to New York City tomorrow for the Board of Governors' ratification vote.

There are plenty of hockey-related questions for Regier, and plenty of team/league/fan inquiries that I'm sure Black is preparing for. So it should be an interesting session.

 

[Woodhouse]

I guess the lockout has been way too long to think that Ruff would come to his senses and not ride Miller into the ground even if he's not good.

At least early on, I'd hope Ruff would start Enroth some since he's in game-shape and since idk what Miller's been up to during the lockout.

 

[Myllz]

At least early on, I'd hope Ruff would start Enroth some since he's in game-shape and since idk what Miller's been up to during the lockout.

No chance Ruff starts Enroth over Miller.