GDT: Lightning @ Devils - 6:45 PM - MSG

[Devs3cups]

There are plenty of people on here who have been discrediting the wins in Czechia because they came against Buffalo. Now every other win is coming up (Utah, Washington, Ottawa) because of preconceived notions of what these teams were supposed to be even though they have had their fair share of wins.

I think there are far too many people that have their minds made up about opponents going into games. No one should be happy about the last two games in particular, but there should be an expectation of growing pains in this first month, regardless of who is on the other side of the ice. People will claim it's excuse making on my part, but besides all the other context, this schedule has not been kind to a team trying to implement a new structure.

Again, I'm just not of the mind to be looking for the ledge in October. And I think a lot of people were looking for it last night. It was a bad loss, second straight terrible outing at home defensively. I don't expect it to stay that way given Keefe's track record. And I have to give him the proper leash to put what he wants in place.

Keep writing these posts, I swear I’m this close to being optimistic again lmao

 

[Call Me Al]

There are plenty of people on here who have been discrediting the wins in Czechia because they came against Buffalo. Now every other win is coming up (Utah, Washington, Ottawa) because of preconceived notions of what these teams were supposed to be even though they have had their fair share of wins.

I think there are far too many people that have their minds made up about opponents going into games. No one should be happy about the last two games in particular, but there should be an expectation of growing pains in this first month, regardless of who is on the other side of the ice. People will claim it's excuse making on my part, but besides all the other context, this schedule has not been kind to a team trying to implement a new structure.

Again, I'm just not of the mind to be looking for the ledge in October. And I think a lot of people were looking for it last night. It was a bad loss, second straight terrible outing at home defensively. I don't expect it to stay that way given Keefe's track record. And I have to give him the proper leash to put what he wants in place.

it’s not about discrediting the wins - it’s about how uncompetitive they look against actually good teams. people picked the devils to be stanley cup contenders with the changes we’ve made. they should be competing for the division. toronto, carolina, tampa and washington dominated these games to the point that it didn’t feel like the devils ever really had a chance.

i also think people are conflating being critical of this team with jumping off the ledge. there’s nothing wrong with waiting to see if this is a good team before buying in as opposed to expecting them to be a good team and assuming this will get on track. there’s no right answer to that - for some they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt and that’s completely fair. this is completely different from the few posters who only post negativity and come here patting themselves on the back when they lose so they can gloat about being right.

we shored up our goaltending- it’s objectively better - but we are still bleeding goals. that’s concerning. when we’ve played actual *good* teams, they’ve completely manhandled us. they don’t look competitive and they are not imposing their style of play on better teams. it shows that they’re not there. and last night showed that they’re still gonna be complete pushovers when other teams hit our stars.

losing is one thing but it’s the way that they’re losing that makes me really hate this team sometimes.

 

[Devs3cups]

Ottawa has a worse xG than we do. Utah’s middle of the road. Caps have been really strong and top 5. It’s not discrediting wins as much as contextualizing the record. The established good teams toyed with us. We didn’t look all that good against an Ottawa team that’s in basically the same spot as us. We played a solid but not great game against a middling Utah team. Washington’s a top possession team and they looked clearly better than us across the 2 games.



He was fine

Agree with a lot here, but the Utah game was a pretty great game.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The PP was clicking at an absurd rate to start last year. The defense was so much worse. Not particularly close. We’re missing a whole pairing while incorporating a key guy coming off a pec tear and a 20 year old going through a huge slump.

 

[Hisch13r]

Keep writing these posts, I swear I’m this close to being optimistic again lmao

lol This is what I'm talking about with the idea of them being better than what they actually look like so far. Like you can talk yourself into believing into this team rather easily and they might end up being that team. Everything is in place for them to be that team. After saying the same shit last year though I'm not going to be optimistic until on ice they show me that I should be optimistic.

 

[dgibb10]

We were 6-2-1 last year. We're 5-3-1 now. It's a difference of one loss.

Last year, we also gave up a 6 spot to the Capitals in those first 9 games. Last year, there wasn't a new coach trying to implement a new structure of play. Also at this time last year, we had played 4 games as opposed to 9 this year.

The wheels fell off after going 6-2-1 last year, and we went 2-7 in our next 9. If we have another stretch like that this year? Yes, I'll be rightly worried. But for now, I have to let things play out a bit longer. Especially for Jack and Bratt to get to the next level that we know they're capable of. Have to imagine them being on such heaters to start the year last year helped play a role in the record and the better numbers, but I haven't dove into them that deeply.

Important to note that the key factor behind that 2-7 stretch last year was the fact that Nico Hischier did not play a single game in that stretch and Jack Hughes played 3 games.

NJD lost players after their first 9 games last year.

NJD is expected to add a literal top pairing after the first 9 games this year.

 

[Hisch13r]

Agree with a lot here, but the Utah game was a pretty great game.

Definitely think it was a great game defensively but I'd be lowering my standards if I called it an outright great game. Still thought their puck play was pretty sloppy and they weren't out there completely dominating and dictating play or creating a lot. It was really good and if they played like that on a regular basis I'd feel a lot better about them but it'd still leaving me wanting more so I wouldn't go as far as to call it "great". I think they've played one great game and that game was better than great. It was a 22-23 classic dominate from start to finish.

 

[Devs3cups]

NJD has a 5-3-1 record. NJD has a 55% xGoals share, good for 6th in the league.

While I agree with this in a way and special teams are part of the game, special teams seem to be impacting this xGF% number a lot. They’re 21st in xGF% at 5v5. I’d like them to be a dominant 5v5 team as they were in 2022-2023, it’s a way more sustainable way to win games and it’s probably a better representation of their level as a team.

 

[dgibb10]

it’s not about discrediting the wins - it’s about how uncompetitive they look against actually good teams. people picked the devils to be stanley cup contenders with the changes we’ve made. they should be competing for the division. toronto, carolina, tampa and washington dominated these games to the point that it didn’t feel like the devils ever really had a chance.

i also think people are conflating being critical of this team with jumping off the ledge. there’s nothing wrong with waiting to see if this is a good team before buying in as opposed to expecting them to be a good team and assuming this will get on track. there’s no right answer to that - for some they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt and that’s completely fair. this is completely different from the few posters who only post negativity and come here patting themselves on the back when they lose so they can gloat about being right.

we shored up our goaltending- it’s objectively better - but we are still bleeding goals. that’s concerning. when we’ve played actual *good* teams, they’ve completely manhandled us. they don’t look competitive and they are not imposing their style of play on better teams. it shows that they’re not there. and last night showed that they’re still gonna be complete pushovers when other teams hit our stars.

losing is one thing but it’s the way that they’re losing that makes me really hate this team sometimes.

Weird because we beat washington and took the other game to overtime.

We also generated more xGoals than washington did in both games vs Washington.

No other team has done that this year, and no other team has taken a point off washington this year.

 

[Call Me Al]

they were lucky to get a point in washington let’s not act like they looked like a good hockey team in that game

 

[dgibb10]

While I agree with this in a way and special teams are part of the game, special teams seem to be impacting this xGF% number a lot. They’re 21st in xGF% at 5v5. I’d like them to be a dominant 5v5 team as they were in 2022-2023, it’s a way more sustainable way to win games and it’s probably a better representation of their level as a team.

I would too like to see the team improve 5v5

But we're still above 50% there, with the 35% pairing of Casey-Nemec about to be replaced by Luke-Pesce.

 

[Devs3cups]

I would too like to see the team improve 5v5

But we're still above 50% there, with the 35% pairing of Casey-Nemec about to be replaced by Luke-Pesce.

What model are you using? On Natural Stat Trick I’m seeing 48.25% xGF%. Just curious if there are other models I can look at. Are you using MoneyPuck?

As for the final sentence, that’s a fair point!

 

[dgibb10]

What model are you using? On Natural Stat Trick I’m seeing 48.25% xGF%. Just curious if there are other models I can look at. Are you using MoneyPuck?

As for the final sentence, that’s a fair point!

evolving hockey.

NJD's bottom pairing has gotten Caved. (replacement coming in house)
The 4th line has gotten caved. (GET A 4C)

the 3rd line has been great

the top 6 hasn't been dominant as they have in years past, but they aren't losing their minutes

The special teams have been good.

Go get a Lars Eller and things are a lot better

 

[Better Call Sal]

it’s not about discrediting the wins - it’s about how uncompetitive they look against actually good teams. people picked the devils to be stanley cup contenders with the changes we’ve made. they should be competing for the division.

i also think people are conflating being critical of this team with jumping off the ledge. there’s nothing wrong with waiting to see if this is a good team before buying in compared to expecting them to be a good team and assuming this will get on track. there’s no right answer to that - for some they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt and that’s completely fair. this is completely different from the few posters who only post negativity and come here patting themselves on the back when they lose so they can gloat about being right.

we shored up our goaltending- it’s objectively better - but we are still bleeding goals. that’s concerning. when we’ve played actual *good* teams, they’ve completely manhandled us. they don’t look competitive and they are not imposing their style of play on better teams. it shows that they’re not there. and last night showed that they’re still gonna be complete pushovers when other teams hit our stars.

losing is one thing but it’s the way that they’re losing that makes me really hate this team sometimes.

There has been plenty of discrediting going on over the past week. And there was plenty of reaching for the ledge given the nature of the loss last night. I get it. I'm not even saying people should react one way or another. It is extremely frustrating to see them come out flat at home in almost every game so far.

What I am saying, though, is that there has to be an expectation of this not being an immediate smooth road ahead. I think there is less waiting to see if the team is good or not, and more emotional reaction to the manner in which they're losing. I'm not even blaming people for that. I'm trying to be a voice of reason more than anything.

As far as goaltending goes, to be honest, I think the bleeding of goals has been more about the defensive breakdowns. Allen was to blame in part for yesterday of course, but I honestly think he cratered when he was getting shelled the way he was for much of that 2nd period. I think that Keefe is right in that the battle level really isn't there from much of the unit. I don't expect that to be the case for long, and I expect things to get better when Luke and Pesce are back.

 

[Hisch13r]

Last year's Leafs team is reason for some optimism as they were really bad the first 10-15 games. Around a 47% xG. They had a 52% the rest of the year and finished 11th in the league at 51.5%.

I've seen the Leafs starting slow in other years under Keefe get brought but those teams were still dominating games. Last year was the one time where it wasn't just a shoddy record but also poor play to start.

 

[Better Call Sal]

lol This is what I'm talking about with the idea of them being better than what they actually look like so far. Like you can talk yourself into believing into this team rather easily and they might end up being that team. Everything is in place for them to be that team. After saying the same shit last year though I'm not going to be optimistic until on ice they show me that I should be optimistic.

It's not talking myself into anything other than giving the new coach the proper slack to get things in order.

I honestly find comparing back to last year's team a fruitless exercise because, despite the core being the same, the makeup is much different on the backend, in goal and the guy running the bench. I know the hockey that we were playing last year was much different than what is trying to be implemented this year. The results might not be there yet, but 9 games does not a whole season make.

You're welcome to feel how you want to feel.

 

[JimEIV]

Good to hear! Stay well

Thank you.

 

[JimEIV]

Wow, that's great news. Very happy for you. So what is going on? Just some inflamed tissue?

I don't know still haven't spoken to the doctor. Probably will today or tomorrow.

 

[OlfactoryHughes]

Let's cool it on calling them the top 2 D.

who’s better?!? Taking dougie over Luke? Sieg over pesce?

Maybe I should have said? Hopefully are best 2 d?!?

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Ottawa is 4-2, we beat them in regulation. Utah is 4-2-1, we beat them in regulation. Washington is 4-1, we're the only team to beat them and managed to come back to take them to OT in a game we probably didn't deserve.

I'm not happy with the defensive play from the past two games, but I can't get behind the mentality of discrediting the wins we've had. If anything, this demonstrates the parity in the league right now and that it's far too early to cement any impressions on a team in the first couple of weeks of the season.

I am not a fan of record watching. Toronto lost a game they got 50 shots in and completely dominated.

Teams that win in an unsustainable manner fall off as the season goes on. Teams that lose while dominating games eventually start winning. As much as you are concerned about discrediting wins, which I get, I am concerned that it's completely unsustainable while playing this way. The games we lost we got killed all over the ice until the games were out of reach.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I am not a fan of record watching. Toronto lost a game they got 50 shots in and completely dominated.

Teams that win in an unsustainable manner fall off as the season goes on. Teams that lose while dominating games eventually start winning. As much as you are concerned about discrediting wins, which I get, I am concerned that it's completely unsustainable while playing this way. The games we lost we got killed all over the ice until the games were out of reach.

And if they had a poor record despite “playing well”, there’d be some other complaint. Probably a diatribe about analytics. Sometimes 9 games are just 9 games and there isn’t much to read into.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

And if they had a poor record despite “playing well”, there’d be some other complaint. Probably a diatribe about analytics. Sometimes 9 games are just 9 games and there isn’t much to read into.

It's fair that it's only been 9 games. Maybe I'm just shell shocked from the last several years sans the record season.

 

[Better Call Sal]

I am not a fan of record watching. Toronto lost a game they got 50 shots in and completely dominated.

Teams that win in an unsustainable manner fall off as the season goes on. Teams that lose while dominating games eventually start winning. As much as you are concerned about discrediting wins, which I get, I am concerned that it's completely unsustainable while playing this way. The games we lost we got killed all over the ice until the games were out of reach.

I don't think anyone is arguing that anything but losing is sustainable with the way we've played the last two games. Think everyone is in full agreement there.

 

[Hisch13r]

It's fair that it's only been 9 games. Maybe I'm just shell shocked from the last several years sans the record season.

I won’t accept any “it’s early” talk if it continues next game against the dog shit Wings. We talked about breaking points earlier for last year. If they’re bad against that f***ing team then I go from concerned but can see the light to smashing the panic button and can only see a glimmer of hope

 

[dgibb10]

I won’t accept any “it’s early” talk if it continues next game against the dog shit Wings. We talked about breaking points earlier for last year. If they’re bad against that f***ing team then I go from concerned but can see the light to smashing the panic button and can only see a glimmer of hope

And if we win you will discredit it as irrelevant vs a bad team.