RabbinsDuck
Registered User
Or that Bourque's team was worse. I don't really disagree with anything you say here, but I just do not put a whole lot of stock in +/- (though more than 0), but I know a lot do.Plus/minus goes both ways. One could argue that Bourque has a better plus/minus despite playing on teams with significantly worse plus/minus overall:
Bourque +528; his teams were +736 overall*. Lidstrom was +429; his teams were +1,217. These numbers would suggest that Bourque was both better and more important to his team.
My issues is with people (this isn't directed at you specifically) who claim that Bourque's apparent offensive advantage is primarily era-driven, yet they refuse to acknowledge that Lidstrom's apparent defensive advantage is also era-dependent.
By my calculations, the NHL averaged 6.86 gpg during Bourque's career and 5.79 gpg during Lidstrom's**. Thus, Bourque played in an era with about 18.5% more offense per game.
Bourque scored 0.98 points per game; Lidstrom scored 0.74 ppg. A superficial look suggests that Bourque scored 32% more than Lidstrom per game, but this is wrong. Adjusted for era, Bourque scored about 0.83 ppg, which is an 12% advantage. Based on seeing them play and understanding how the NHL has changed over the past three decades, I'm comfortable saying that Bourque was about 12% better than Lidstrom offensively. This type of analysis isn't controversial.
Defensively, Bourque was on the ice for 0.90 even-strength goals per game (which I'll simply call "GPG" for simplicity). Lidstrom was on the ice for 0.76 gpg. A superficial glance suggests that Lidstrom was on the ice for 20% fewer goals per game than Bourque. However, in order to be consistent, we need to apply the same era adjustment we did for the offense. Adjusted for era, Bourque was on the ice for 0.76 gpg, which is 1% more than Lidstrom***.
Before we consider ice time and teammates, it appears that, adjusted for era, Bourque was only very slightly worse than Lidstrom defensively. These calculations are consistent with my intuition - Bourque was better offensively, Lidstrom was better defensively by a small margin and, overall, Bourque is slightly ahead.
I think that Bourque and Lidstrom are much more similar than most people realize, and the notion that Bourque was vastly superior offensively and Lidstrom was clearly better defensively are based on people get confused by era effects.
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* I'm looking at the total GF and GA - if someone has GF and GA with PP goals removed, please post. For Lidstrom I've used the Red Wings; for Bourque I've used the Bruins from 1980 to 2000, and the Avalanche for 2001 (thus I've ignored the impact of the late-season trade in 2000).
** This entire section excludes 2010-11 as I don't have the necessary data.
*** Calculations have been rounded so if you re-perform you may encounter minor rounding differences.
I'm far more comfortable with the direct validity of your take on offensive play than I am the defensive play, but I can agree on the results = Bourque's offensive advantage is slightly larger than Lidstrom's defensive advantage. IMO, that is true.
While Norris voters typically value offense more, I have always felt defense should be valued more from a defenseman (like I value offense more from a forward).
But I agree with the census that even with a very liberal use of adjusted stats, Bourque is clearly better offensively. I just think Lidstrom was clearly better defensively (and in the playoffs) albeit by a smaller degree of separation.