OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[DAChampion]

The US Dollar will gain 10% more reserve currency... it's not going down, it's going WAY up as China self-destruct and the Eurozone falls into another debt crisis.

The US dollar's reserve currency status will appear less safe all over the world as they routinely suspend us dollar accounts of anyone on their shit list, Venunzuela, Afghanistan, Russia, etc. Meanwhile Russia and China are working to develop an alternative and are making substantial progress.

China is now, or will be within a couple years, the world's number one economic and technological power. They will also have a much lower incidence of long COVID among their young, and more access to Russian natural resources.

 

[SOLR]

The US dollar's reserve currency status will appear less safe all over the world as they routinely suspend us dollar accounts of anyone on their shit list, Venunzuela, Afghanistan, Russia, etc. Meanwhile Russia and China are working to develop an alternative and are making substantial progress.

China is now, or will be within a couple years, the world's number one economic and technological power. They will also have a much lower incidence of long COVID among their young, and more access to Russian natural resources.

Your whole narrative is completely wrong.

1) China and the CCP is about to collapse, the US is moving out all of their factories.
2) Once the US doesn't offer protection to the Chinese, every Chinese import will be unsecured, China depends 85% on imports - they will have to cut that in half(!). They will run out of food, and of everything they need to produce.
3) Covid is creating vast pockets of unemployment. They have no covid solution at all.
4) Debt crisis, de-industrialization is incoming
5) Violent demographic collapse has already started (mass unemployment paired with lack of skilled workers) - reproduction rates around 0.7! =/ major internal issues.
6) If they engage in a war with the US over Taiwan, they lose 50% of their population without any weapons being fired in 6 months (by losing 90% of their petroleum imports coming from the Saudis.

Chineses are done. 3 out of 3 of my Chinese clients are moving their families out (100s of families).
They have very little access to Russian natural resources. It's a complete lie. The Russian lost of their skilled workers capable of building transport networks into China.

The US dollar has never been so safe because they are the only leading nation without a demographic problem, they will be a much higher % of the worldwide economy by 2035 vs. today (US).

 

[Hope Of Glory]

Your whole narrative is completely wrong.

1) China and the CCP is about to collapse, the US is moving out all of their factories.
2) Once the US doesn't offer protection to the Chinese, every Chinese import will be unsecured, China depends 85% on imports - they will have to cut that in half(!). They will run out of food, and of everything they need to produce.
3) Covid is creating vast pockets of unemployment. They have no covid solution at all.
4) Debt crisis, de-industrialization is incoming
5) Violent demographic collapse has already started (mass unemployment paired with lack of skilled workers) - reproduction rates around 0.7! =/ major internal issues.
6) If they engage in a war with the US over Taiwan, they lose 50% of their population without any weapons being fired in 6 months (by losing 90% of their petroleum imports coming from the Saudis.

Chineses are done. 3 out of 3 of my Chinese clients are moving their families out (100s of families).
They have very little access to Russian natural resources. It's a complete lie. The Russian lost of their skilled workers capable of building transport networks into China.

The US dollar has never been so safe because they are the only leading nation without a demographic problem, they will be a much higher % of the worldwide economy by 2035 vs. today (US).

Let's say hypothetically China is fine and keeps on trucking. Even then, would countries around the world really use their currency as the leading reserve currency? I find it hard to think that most countries would trust an autocratic government that only exists to do the bidding of the leadership of the CCP.

I mean, if the US was to fall and a currency absolutely had to replace them as a reserve currency, sure, maybe. But other than that? Despite all their shortcomings the US is a waaaaay more trustable than China. It's obviously not only an issue of being trustable but I find that part hard to overlook.

 

[SOLR]

Let's say hypothetically China is fine and keeps on trucking. Even then, would countries around the world really use their currency as the leading reserve currency? I find it hard to think that most countries would trust an autocratic government that only exists to do the bidding of the leadership of the CCP.

I mean, if the US was to fall and a currency absolutely had to replace them as a reserve currency, sure, maybe. But other than that? Despite all their shortcomings the US is a waaaaay more trustable than China. It's obviously not only an issue of being trustable but I find that part hard to overlook.

Nope....

 

[LeHab]

Your whole narrative is completely wrong.

1) China and the CCP is about to collapse, the US is moving out all of their factories.

China does not want to remain world's factory. For years they have been investing in Africa's infrastructure as a future source of cheap labor and natural resources. Meanwhile other sectors like tech are developing well.

Time will tell... not concerned for China nor US/USD for the matter.

 

[Andrei79]

Lmao at the opinions being so all over the place. From 20% inflation to deflation to complete societal collapse. It's been a good read.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Inflation is already slowing down. Used cars are getting cheaper, homes for sale is a post-pandemic low. Lumber is down. In fact, financial writers are starting to worry that the Fed has gone too quickly in its raises and might cause deflation.

The only element holding up inflation right now is gas and salaries increase.

I'm ready to bet 1000$ CAD right now with you that Inflation will not be at 20% or higher in Canada YoY in June 2023.

Inflation down, I don’t think so Tim. The fed waited too long, way too long. May was the greatest one month inflation increase in 30 years. Here you are arguing it is slowing down and the fed acted too swiftly haha. Someone is in for a surprise, this won’t be under control any time soon and there are virtually no near term concerns about deflation. It ain’t happening.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

The US dollar's reserve currency status will appear less safe all over the world as they routinely suspend us dollar accounts of anyone on their shit list, Venunzuela, Afghanistan, Russia, etc. Meanwhile Russia and China are working to develop an alternative and are making substantial progress.

China is now, or will be within a couple years, the world's number one economic and technological power. They will also have a much lower incidence of long COVID among their young, and more access to Russian natural resources.

I 100% agree with you. The US is losing grasp of the worlds economic super power. It can’t and won’t last. The gig is almost up.

 

[DailyKaizen]

There's going to be a lot of supply shocks due to the effects of sanctions against Russia for things like grains, fertilizers, noble gases, various metals like palladium. Separately, the US dollar's loss of reserve currency status will continue.

Excellent points.
Also, it can be argued that QE by the Fed and the ECB has greatly affected inflation as well.

@DAChampion I agree it is an inevitability that the USD will lose its global reserve status but its diminishing status is too slow but definitely a very interesting space to watch, grab the popcorn

 

[SOLR]

Lmao at the opinions being so all over the place. From 20% inflation to deflation to complete societal collapse. It's been a good read.

This is who you guys think will be the new power of the world?
Give your heads a shake.



The current US inflation is driven by US Millenial consumption, it will last 5-7 years like the baby boomers 70s as the US rebuild their industrial base.

 

[NotProkofievian]

This is who you guys think will be the new power of the world?
Give your heads a shake.



The current US inflation is driven by US Millenial consumption, it will last 5-7 years like the baby boomers 70s as the US rebuild their industrial base.

I see Zeihan, I like Zeihan.

 

[SOLR]

I see Zeihan, I like Zeihan.

I like him, but I'm mostly informed by Chinese-born Canadian entrepreneurs on this. "GTFO of China" is their whole focus.

 

[Andrei79]

This is who you guys think will be the new power of the world?
Give your heads a shake.



The current US inflation is driven by US Millenial consumption, it will last 5-7 years like the baby boomers 70s as the US rebuild their industrial base.

Try to find the word China in my recent posting history. Good luck with that.

 

[DAChampion]

Your whole narrative is completely wrong.

1) China and the CCP is about to collapse, the US is moving out all of their factories.
2) Once the US doesn't offer protection to the Chinese, every Chinese import will be unsecured, China depends 85% on imports - they will have to cut that in half(!). They will run out of food, and of everything they need to produce.
3) Covid is creating vast pockets of unemployment. They have no covid solution at all.
4) Debt crisis, de-industrialization is incoming
5) Violent demographic collapse has already started (mass unemployment paired with lack of skilled workers) - reproduction rates around 0.7! =/ major internal issues.
6) If they engage in a war with the US over Taiwan, they lose 50% of their population without any weapons being fired in 6 months (by losing 90% of their petroleum imports coming from the Saudis.

Chineses are done. 3 out of 3 of my Chinese clients are moving their families out (100s of families).
They have very little access to Russian natural resources. It's a complete lie. The Russian lost of their skilled workers capable of building transport networks into China.

The US dollar has never been so safe because they are the only leading nation without a demographic problem, they will be a much higher % of the worldwide economy by 2035 vs. today (US).

You're basing this off a biased sample: the tiny fraction of Chinese people that emigrate, roughly 0.025% of their population annually.

No, China won't lose 750 million people if they take over Taiwan (wtf?). The USA will do as vigorous a job of defending Taiwan as they are defending Ukraine. They'll send some overpriced weapons and try and fight to the last Ukrainian (Taiwanese) over but they won't actually commit any of their own forces, as the stakes are too high. If the USA actually did try to defend Taiwan, they would lose their navy.

By the way, compare Chinese schools to American schools:

COVID precautions

Quality of school lunches in China

School lunches in the USA

Uvalde school shooting

 

[LaP]

I like him, but I'm mostly informed by Chinese-born Canadian entrepreneurs on this. "GTFO of China" is their whole focus.

I'm still puzzled than some Americans and Canadians think it is as easy as GTFO of china. Our whole economy is based on cheap labour. Blaming millennial for any problem is not only delusional but totally ludicrous.

Our economy is based on cheap labour and a relatively stable price of goods letting public company post record profit while not really increasing the price of goods much. Getting out of china will only increase the price of everything and put us in a very long depression. If you think public companies will accept to bring back their profit to acceptable level you are deeply foolish. If you think people will be willing to go back to what it used to be when nobody had money to spend after paying their rent you are also foolish.

We might move to another country than china but history will repeat itself. That country will grow stronger and we will eventually disagree with something and we will treat them as enemies and we will eventually run out of cheap labour to exploit. The whole let's start an economic war with china without having a plan is extremely dumb.

 

[dinodebino]

People commenting on China without having being there and knowing about their culture and history with rulers and despots over more than FIVE THOUSAND years, are armchair quaterbacks to me.

So this back and forth is entertaining.

 

[DAChampion]

People commenting on China without having being there and knowing about their culture and history with rulers and despots over more than FIVE THOUSAND years, are armchair quaterbacks to me.

So this back and forth is entertaining.

I may not have lived in China, but I have lived in the USA for ten years now, so I can see a lot of the long term issues, most of which have no plausible solution:

- rapidly declining life expectancy, along with high infant mortality rates;
- decaying infrastructure. Potholes everywhere, endless traffic jams, cheap airports, cheap airlines, lack of high speed rail, etc.
- The Republican and Democratic party are both ineffective at implementing meaningful reforms.
- 45,000 people dying from each of gun deaths and traffic accidents per year;
- health care costs run at 19% of GDP;
- education sector overrun by rampant grade inflation, and often more concerned with diversity than with quality. There's more discussion about how to teach 8 year olds about gender transitioning and critical race theory than how to teach calculus and coding to 16 year olds;
- skyrocketing crime;
- 9% inflation;
- hedge funds taking over real estate to become mass landlords;
- daycare can cost $600/week for newborns;

Etc.

 

[SOLR]

I'm still puzzled than some Americans and Canadians think it is as easy as GTFO of china. Our whole economy is based on cheap labour. Blaming millennial for any problem is not only delusional but totally ludicrous.

Our economy is based on cheap labour and a relatively stable price of goods letting public company post record profit while not really increasing the price of goods much. Getting out of china will only increase the price of everything and put us in a very long depression. If you think public companies will accept to bring back their profit to acceptable level you are deeply foolish. If you think people will be willing to go back to what it used to be when nobody had money to spend after paying their rent you are also foolish.

We might move to another country than china but history will repeat itself. That country will grow stronger and we will eventually disagree with something and we will treat them as enemies and we will eventually run out of cheap labour to exploit. The whole let's start an economic war with china without having a plan is extremely dumb.

Public companies are not in control of geopolitics. What's foolish is believing that when it comes to food shortage, demographic collapse etc, Apple as any power at all to change the geopolitics.

History will not repeat itself if most of the manufacturing is in the US, with US labour (that's what happening - but you haven't been paying attention).

 

[LaP]

Public companies are not in control of geopolitics. What's foolish is believing that when it comes to food shortage, demographic collapse etc, Apple as any power at all to change the geopolitics.

History will not repeat itself if most of the manufacturing is in the US, with US labour (that's what happening - but you haven't been paying attention).

Hum that's not even remotely close to what i'm talking about. It is a fact that an average job in the US is paid significantly more than in China. It is a fact that if we move all manufacturing back to the US it will increase the cost of manufacturing thing by a significant margin. It is a fact that public companies wont be able to cut their profit so price of goods will increase or average wage will decrease.

We are already importing workers from other countries (Mexico, ...) who are given awful working conditions because people don't want to do minimum salary jobs like they did in the past. There's absolutely no way US workers will accept to work under Chinese workers working condition (not only the salary but the other conditions as well). Our current system is not sustainable if "we bring back the jobs". Some of those jobs will be replaceable by robots but not all. I mean what are you even talking about?

 

[SOLR]

Hum that's not even remotely close to what i'm talking about. It is a fact that an average job in the US is paid significantly more than in China. It is a fact that if we move all manufacturing back to the US it will increase the cost of manufacturing thing by a significant margin. It is a fact that public companies wont be able to cut their profit so price of goods will increase or average wage will decrease.

We are already importing workers from other countries (Mexico, ...) who are given awful working conditions because people don't want to do minimum salary jobs like they did in the past. There's absolutely no way US workers will accept to work under Chinese workers working condition (not only the salary but the other conditions as well). Our current system is not sustainable if "we bring back the jobs". Some of those jobs will be replaceable by robots but not all. I mean what are you even talking about?

US manufacturing new age will take the form of gigafactories with more automation and economies of scale not accessible to the Chinese.
The fact that these giga factories with be closer to the consumer will make them very competitive with current Chineses centers.

Intel is doing it for semiconductors.
Tesla for cars.
Apple might do it for themselves *only when they will have to.

The US millennial will absorb 30-40% inflation (and 70%+) growth.

And the Mexicans are doing very well in Mexico! No need to import them, they don't want to come anymore anyway. Mexican immigration has been negative for the past 13 years! The latinos entering the US are from central America, this part will also industrialize rapidly and the immigration will just stop.

 

[SOLR]

You're basing this off a biased sample: the tiny fraction of Chinese people that emigrate, roughly 0.025% of their population annually.

No, China won't lose 750 million people if they take over Taiwan (wtf?). The USA will do as vigorous a job of defending Taiwan as they are defending Ukraine. They'll send some overpriced weapons and try and fight to the last Ukrainian (Taiwanese) over but they won't actually commit any of their own forces, as the stakes are too high. If the USA actually did try to defend Taiwan, they would lose their navy.

By the way, compare Chinese schools to American schools:

COVID precautions
View attachment 561331

Quality of school lunches in China

School lunches in the USA

Uvalde school shooting

Yes they will lose half their population in 6 months if they move a finger on Taiwan, they import 80% of their stuff, the Americans can close that 80% with 1 submarine in the Indian Ocean.

Oh btw.
Japan/Korea are blocking them north.
Australia is blocking them in the islands
Indian is blocking them on their side.

Stop believing the Chinese propaganda.

Sure I talk to Chinese entrepreneurs that CAN get out with MILLIONS - that being said, if every entrepreneur was flying out of the US right now, you would notice, wouldn't you?

 

[dinodebino]

I may not have lived in China, but I have lived in the USA for ten years now, so I can see a lot of the long term issues, most of which have no plausible solution:

- rapidly declining life expectancy, along with high infant mortality rates;
- decaying infrastructure. Potholes everywhere, endless traffic jams, cheap airports, cheap airlines, lack of high speed rail, etc.
- The Republican and Democratic party are both ineffective at implementing meaningful reforms.
- 45,000 people dying from each of gun deaths and traffic accidents per year;
- health care costs run at 19% of GDP;
- education sector overrun by rampant grade inflation, and often more concerned with diversity than with quality. There's more discussion about how to teach 8 year olds about gender transitioning and critical race theory than how to teach calculus and coding to 16 year olds;
- skyrocketing crime;
- 9% inflation;
- hedge funds taking over real estate to become mass landlords;
- daycare can cost $600/week for newborns;

Etc.

I know you are looking at this from a US perspective. I have it for people who look at Asia with that specific eyelense.

It’s all about perspective. Yes, the US is declining. That’s been ongoing for a while. To justify the decline of China through that same NA view is hilarious to me.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

(mod)

Don't know if the cumulative weight of all their issues will catch up to them, stock market wise. I know that Ray Dalio pointed out that social unrest is one of the biggest threat to the country and the market.

Hypothetically, lets say the US market stagnates at best for a decade or so. Where do you put your money? EU is headed for a crisis, China has huge questions marks going forward (and even they keep growing economically, investing there is always risky because there is no real rule of law), Canada is tied to the US. There doesn't seem to be anything obvious but I'm far from being an expert.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Well, the Supreme Court just added another level of instability to the US' already precarious situation.

Don't know if the cumulative weight of all their issues will catch up to them, stock market wise. I know that Ray Dalio pointed out that social unrest is one of the biggest threat to the country and the market.

Hypothetically, lets say the US market stagnates at best for a decade or so. Where do you put your money? EU is headed for a crisis, China has huge questions marks going forward (and even they keep growing economically, investing there is always risky because there is no real rule of law), Canada is tied to the US. There doesn't seem to be anything obvious but I'm far from being an expert.

I won’t be putting any money into China. I’m not a fan of investing in a company that is subject to sudden actions by government. Jack Ma says something the government doesn’t like and he loses 30 billion. No thanks.

Not saying you can’t make money but I hate the risks.

 

[SOLR]

(Mod)

Don't know if the cumulative weight of all their issues will catch up to them, stock market wise. I know that Ray Dalio pointed out that social unrest is one of the biggest threat to the country and the market.

Hypothetically, lets say the US market stagnates at best for a decade or so. Where do you put your money? EU is headed for a crisis, China has huge questions marks going forward (and even they keep growing economically, investing there is always risky because there is no real rule of law), Canada is tied to the US. There doesn't seem to be anything obvious but I'm far from being an expert.

(Mod) Look, there was history before you arrived and there will be history after you leave. It doesn't mean the country will fail because of a collection of issues.

We have a difficult 5 years ahead, but then things will restart. Be prudent, invest in things that HAVE to grow over the next 5 years (fertilizers, re-shoring, companies who are building factories in the US etc - they will all grow after this year).

I won’t be putting any money into China. I’m not a fan of investing in a company that is subject to sudden actions by government. Jack Ma says something the government doesn’t like and he loses 30 billion. No thanks.

Not saying you can’t make money but I hate the risks.

1 dollar going to China, is 1 dollar never coming back.