OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[Perrah]

NVIDIA taking a beating. They met estimates but projects soft second Must be lost of Russian market. That's a large market. Cell phones, video gamers.

Long term I am still in. With AI coming, self driving cars, metaverses, this good time to add cheap for long term. This company known to make big bounces in past

Part of the issue is that the supply of video cards is back up and they cant charge a half a liver for them at his time.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

I don’t see the point in catching a falling knife. Stocks are still falling significantly.

I understand the falling knife thing for individual stocks, especially when it doesn't follow the market as a whole. But as far as diversified ETFs go? Nobody can time the market. Statistically speaking, there's a lot more money to be lost by waiting than there is to be made by timing the market. DCAing is key.

Tons of people were waiting for a crash back in 2019. Or 2018. Or 2017. And tons of people were waiting at the bottom of the 2020 markets. It was surely going to keep declining. It was so obvious. Yet it didn't and we had a very, very quick recovery. I remember that vividly. I'm not saying this will happen again this time though, just that you can't be sure. Most people don't know they're the bottom when they live through it, just the same way they don't know they're at the top.

I'm not saying you're wrong, by the way. Things might get worse and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. But since nobody can't know for sure, the best way is to keep investing regularly if you don't need the money before 10+ years. Of course, you could be right this time and things get significantly worse and by waiting you'll improve your gains. But will you be able to guess right the next time? And the one after that? Unless you're one in a millions, sadly, you won't. That's why DCAing is the best way to go unless you're a professional.

Anyway, I'm just a stranger on the internet so don't make financial decisions based on my advice. But reading on the subject (which you might already have done and decided its not for you, which is fine) might give you another perspective.

 

[QuebecPride]

I don’t see the point in catching a falling knife. Stocks are still falling significantly.

So when will you get in?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I understand the falling knife thing for individual stocks, especially when it doesn't follow the market as a whole. But as far as diversified ETFs go? Nobody can time the market. Statistically speaking, there's a lot more money to be lost by waiting than there is to be made by timing the market. DCAing is key.

Tons of people were waiting for a crash back in 2019. Or 2018. Or 2017. And tons of people were waiting at the bottom of the 2020 markets. It was surely going to keep declining. It was so obvious. Yet it didn't and we had a very, very quick recovery. I remember that vividly. I'm not saying this will happen again this time though, just that you can't be sure. Most people don't know they're the bottom when they live through it, just the same way they don't know they're at the top.

I'm not saying you're wrong, by the way. Things might get worse and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest. But since nobody can't know for sure, the best way is to keep investing regularly if you don't need the money before 10+ years. Of course, you could be right this time and things get significantly worse and by waiting you'll improve your gains. But will you be able to guess right the next time? And the one after that? Unless you're one in a millions, sadly, you won't. That's why DCAing is the best way to go unless you're a professional.

Anyway, I'm just a stranger on the internet so don't make financial decisions based on my advice. But reading on the subject (which you might already have done and decided its not for you, which is fine) might give you another perspective.

Appreciate your thoughts.

My money has been in individual stocks rather than funds. I’ve done much better that way.

So when will you get in?

When it starts to go back up. I’m not doing it now, I just think it’s going to keep falling for the time being.

 

[DailyKaizen]

I don’t see the point in catching a falling knife. Stocks are still falling significantly.

No harm if you catch it by the handle

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

No harm if you catch it by the handle

Never works that way for me.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Never works that way for me.

You don’t have to time it perfectly. Little pump and dump coming, but the bottom is not in, not by a long shot imo.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You don’t have to time it perfectly. Little pump and dump coming, but the bottom is not in, not by a long shot imo.

I’d rather miss the bottom and buy on the way up. Buying on the way down is scary and you can get smoked.

 

[QuebecPride]

I’d rather miss the bottom and buy on the way up. Buying on the way down is scary and you can get smoked.

I understand that psychologically it's easier, even though it's not the logical thing to do. Whatever floats your boat I guess.

 

[DailyKaizen]

"Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going to go up, down, sideways or in circles."

All asset prices are set by supply and demand...supply does not change in the same fashion demand does...

Prediction seems like a fool's errand...

Predictions say more about the prognosticator than what will actually happen..

In life and in the stock market...

Proper prior planning prevents poor performance...

Hence it is more advantageous to focus your time and effort in preparation, rather than sharing your prognosis of asset prices ...how on earth can you predict large volumes and swings of demand...?

The stock market can either be your slave and serve you

Or

It can be your master and rule cruelly over you...

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I understand that psychologically it's easier, even though it's not the logical thing to do. Whatever floats your boat I guess.

Well, it worked out pretty well for me…

 

[HuGort]

Appreciate your thoughts.

My money has been in individual stocks rather than funds. I’ve done much better that way.

When it starts to go back up. I’m not doing it now, I just think it’s going to keep falling for the time being.

Had a good week this week. S&P jumped from 3,900 to 4,150.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Had a good week this week. S&P jumped from 3,900 to 4,150.

I'm sure there will be good weeks. But my bet is that it's going to continue falling.

Honestly man, there's nothing wrong with selling. And there's nothing wrong with being cash heavy in bad times too. I made a ton of cash in stocks and sold at highs. Stocks have continued to crash since and I've had my cash on hand for when it reverses.

What's wrong with that?

 

[HuGort]

I'm sure there will be good weeks. But my bet is that it's going to continue falling.

Honestly man, there's nothing wrong with selling. And there's nothing wrong with being cash heavy in bad times too. I made a ton of cash in stocks and sold at highs. Stocks have continued to crash since and I've had my cash on hand for when it reverses.

What's wrong with that?

I think it will rise a bit more then crash. Expecting a good fall run thou

 

[HuGort]

Would you guys put money into Labrador Ore? It's trading 6 times earnings, pays 16% yield. Those are huge numbers.

I put money in Rio tin last November. So far I am up 22% plus 11% yield.

 

[DailyKaizen]

Would you guys put money into Labrador Ore? It's trading 6 times earnings, pays 16% yield. Those are huge numbers.

I put money in Rio tin last November. So far I am up 22% plus 11% yield.

Might take a punt with that one , thanks for that

 

[LeHab]

China coming out of lockdown and Europe agrees on partial Russian oil ban

EU leaders agree on partial ban of Russian oil, EU council president says

EU says 27-nation bloc will ban export of Russian oil

www.theglobeandmail.com

Morel Demand + Less Supply = Higher Oil Prices

 

[SOLR]

I understand that psychologically it's easier, even though it's not the logical thing to do. Whatever floats your boat I guess.

When the interest rate is still going up and up fast, makes little sense to buy. This isn't about timing the market, the rules are clearly changing in an obvious way.

China coming out of lockdown and Europe agrees on partial Russian oil ban

EU leaders agree on partial ban of Russian oil, EU council president says

EU says 27-nation bloc will ban export of Russian oil

www.theglobeandmail.com

Morel Demand + Less Supply = Higher Oil Prices

$170 a barrel incoming if the Russians break their transport system following this decision.

 

[QuebecPride]

When the interest rate is still going up and up fast, makes little sense to buy. This isn't about timing the market, the rules are clearly changing in an obvious way.

It is by definition market timing. But it's okay if that's what he wants to do.

 

[SOLR]

It is by definition market timing. But it's okay if that's what he wants to do.

Sure - you can see it like this, all I'm saying is that these "rules' are made for 99% of cases where the macro signals are not strong enough. There are a few situations where the macro signals are strong enough.

 

[Hope Of Glory]

Sure - you can see it like this, all I'm saying is that these "rules' are made for 99% of cases where the macro signals are not strong enough. There are a few situations where the macro signals are strong enough.

I don't disagree but wouldn't a big part of the upcoming interest raises be already priced in for most stocks? At least for the part of the raises that are obvious, I mean.

 

[SOLR]

I don't disagree but wouldn't a big part of the upcoming interest raises be already priced in for most stocks? At least for the part of the raises that are obvious, I mean.

The everything bubble has not blown up.

$180 petroleum is not priced in. Not any subsequent raises. The consequences from these decisions... not priced in. etc.

A crappy house in Toronto is still $1,800,000. Nonsense, it's not worth half that. Just buy the same thing in Europe for 200k or Asia 100k - or most of the US 400-500k. There's complete nonsense in the market for the past 15 years that needs to correct itself. Everybody knows it, the ones on the good side of it feel smart for having it, the ones on the bad side of it are leaving. No children are born. Dogs everywhere, dogs are not buying homes - they remove $ from the consumer's hands without any revenues coming back later. Good luck with that.

Moral decay is everywhere, schools are losing the plot.

A 1% event is coming.

 

[LeHab]

The everything bubble has not blown up.

$180 petroleum is not priced in. Not any subsequent raises. The consequences from these decisions... not priced in. etc.

A crappy house in Toronto is still $1,800,000. Nonsense, it's not worth half that. Just buy the same thing in Europe for 200k or Asia 100k - or most of the US 400-500k. There's complete nonsense in the market for the past 15 years that needs to correct itself. Everybody knows it, the ones on the good side of it feel smart for having it, the ones on the bad side of it are leaving. No children are born. Dogs everywhere, dogs are not buying homes - they remove $ from the consumer's hands without any revenues coming back later. Good luck with that.

Moral decay is everywhere, schools are losing the plot.

A 1% event is coming.

People price in what they expect will happen. We have a good sense of where central banks are heading but many many factors are unknown. Speaking of Rates, BoC should announce its 50bp hike today at 10am.

As for RE if you want to compare with Europe and Asia, you need to compare per square meter and similar sized cities. Look at prices in Hong Kong, Tokyo, London & Paris and you will see Toronto is not that bad. Especially when you add larger streets and more green space.

QE and low rates have inflated asset values since 2008 that for sure is true.

 

[SOLR]

People price in what they expect will happen. We have a good sense of where central banks are heading but many many factors are unknown. Speaking of Rates, BoC should announce its 50bp hike today at 10am.

As for RE if you want to compare with Europe and Asia, you need to compare per square meter and similar sized cities. Look at prices in Hong Kong, Tokyo, London & Paris and you will see Toronto is not that bad. Especially when you add larger streets and more green space.

QE and low rates have inflated asset values since 2008 that for sure is true.

Bank of Montreal have assets in Montreal/Toronto/Vancouver 38% inflated. I think its more than that, probably (5-10% gone already far from the core).

Toronto should not be in the same asset class as tier 1 cities like London, Tokyo and Paris. It's 7 million people, not 20+ million (but it is...)

Hong Kong is in free fall since the Chinese took over, not even in the same category at this point. Buying in Hong Kong is losing 100% of your money.

But let's talk about Bangkok, Dubai, Madrid, Rome etc. compare THAT, headaches guaranteed.

 

[HuGort]

China coming out of lockdown and Europe agrees on partial Russian oil ban

EU leaders agree on partial ban of Russian oil, EU council president says

EU says 27-nation bloc will ban export of Russian oil

www.theglobeandmail.com

Morel Demand + Less Supply = Higher Oil Prices

If gas goes much higher and stays will be major crisis