let’s talk about the Blue Jackets… it’s bad.. real bad.

[CBJx614]

Yep, although Hellebuyck did it for years.

I don't watch a lot of CBJ games, but have a soft spot for the team and several of their current lineup and enjoyed their 2019 run.

I guess I'm finding it hard to work out who they are and who they're aiming to be given the rebuilding narrative -- in a perfect world, what do CBJ fans want the team to look like? How do you want them to play?

At the moment it seems like a weird mix of high-end skill and just barely hanging on, in a hellishly hard division. It must be immensely frustrating to watch?

It makes sense why we have no identity because we are overflowing with wingers, but have two young centers who need another season or two of development, plus two or three dmen who they want to build around, who aren't fully established or close to playing in the NHL yet and still need to likely play 100-200 games before they'll be able to feel comfortable in the NHL. And two goalies who likely aren't the long term answer.

So basically all the pieces who would give us an identity have less than 30 games played or aren't even in the NHL yet.

 

[Viqsi]

I certainly didn't think they'd be this bad. The Gudbranson move was bizarre. Don't know why anyone is knocking the Gaudreau acquisition though, even if the Jackets take a few years to become competitive again, he'll still be there. You don't get many chances to add a player like that to your team.

It is difficult to answer this without resorting to pejoratives, but I'll try: there are people who see a good quality UFA being signed, and who lack the basic cognitive capability to subsequently consider any possibility whatsoever other than said signing automatically constituting a commitment to a "Win Now" strategy. It just never occurs to them. They can't make that leap. The broken "reasoning" follows from that core failure.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Have they tried tanking?

 

[nbwingsfan]

They literally gave up nothing in their “big game” hunting. The players/picks they gave up have had almost no impact on the teams they’re at.

At best they were getting one late first for panarin. Bobrovsky had a NMC and would have refused to move mid season.

It was either staying pat or make a push. They made a push. I wouldn’t go back on that decision.

You don’t know who CLB would have picked with the draft picks they traded, Nevermind that those players are still young and who knows what they will become.

You absolutely would have got more than a later first for one of the best W in the world considering both Matt Duchene and Kevin Hayes got more than that.

Were there any reports of Bobrovsky refusing to waive his NMC anywhere? Especially if his buddy Panarin was traded?

As I said, when you actually go on a real run, you’ll know 2nd round playoff loses are completely meaningless.

 

[CBJx614]

You don’t know who CLB would have picked with the draft picks they traded, Nevermind that those players are still young and who knows what they will become.

You absolutely would have got more than a later first for one of the best W in the world considering both Matt Duchene and Kevin Hayes got more than that.

Were there any reports of Bobrovsky refusing to waive his NMC anywhere? Especially if his buddy Panarin was traded?

As I said, when you actually go on a real run, you’ll know 2nd round playoff loses are completely meaningless.

Everyone knows that anything less than a cup run is meaningless, but to a city that never had a playoff win, let alone a series win, that run was a big moment for the city.

Trust me, Columbus fans know how pathetic it is we're happy about getting to the second round. But it's a start, our previous playoff history included going back and forth with Pittsburgh and Washington (who both went on to win cups) and getting swept by Detroit, who I believe made it to the finals in 09. Every team we've lost to in the playoffs made it to the finals.

 

[nbwingsfan]

It is difficult to answer this without resorting to pejoratives, but I'll try: there are people who see a good quality UFA being signed, and who lack the basic cognitive capability to subsequently consider any possibility whatsoever other than said signing automatically constituting a commitment to a "Win Now" strategy. It just never occurs to them. They can't make that leap. The broken "reasoning" follows from that core failure.

I think a lot of people, myself included, think a big part in Gaudreaus decision was to pick a team with little to no pressure and a team that’s rarely competitive.

I think he’s happy to just play the game and collect his paycheques with little motivation to really win a Cup. His playoff performances seem to support that as well.

 

[Viqsi]

Yep, although Hellebuyck did it for years.

I don't watch a lot of CBJ games, but have a soft spot for the team and several of their current lineup and enjoyed their 2019 run.

I guess I'm finding it hard to work out who they are and who they're aiming to be given the rebuilding narrative -- in a perfect world, what do CBJ fans want the team to look like? How do you want them to play?

At the moment it seems like a weird mix of high-end skill and just barely hanging on, in a hellishly hard division. It must be immensely frustrating to watch?

Visions among the fanbase are conflicting, and some have construed this to mean that there is no vision. I think the goal is to try to go for high-end skilled speed, but we're missing some of the key parts for that and so it's looking like less than the sum of its parts right now.

And yeah, "immensely frustrating" is an understatement.

* * *​

I think a lot of people, myself included, think a big part in Gaudreaus decision was to pick a team with little to no pressure and a team that’s rarely competitive.

I think he’s happy to just play the game and collect his paycheques with little motivation to really win a Cup. His playoff performances seem to support that as well.

Thanks for sharing. Do you have any more "f*** you for being Columbus" statements you'd like to share?

 

[nbwingsfan]

Everyone knows that anything less than a cup run is meaningless, but to a city that never had a playoff win, let alone a series win, that run was a big moment for the city.

Trust me, Columbus fans know how pathetic it is we're happy about getting to the second round. But it's a start, our previous playoff history included going back and forth with Pittsburgh and Washington (who both went on to win cups) and getting swept by Detroit, who I believe made it to the finals in 09. Every team we've lost to in the playoffs made it to the finals.

Like I said I I can see why they did it. Just don’t agree with losing out on so much future potential just to win a single round. Which that in itself

Everyone knows that anything less than a cup run is meaningless, but to a city that never had a playoff win, let alone a series win, that run was a big moment for the city.

Trust me, Columbus fans know how pathetic it is we're happy about getting to the second round. But it's a start, our previous playoff history included going back and forth with Pittsburgh and Washington (who both went on to win cups) and getting swept by Detroit, who I believe made it to the finals in 09. Every team we've lost to in the playoffs made it to the finals.

Like I said I I can see why they did it. Just don’t agree with losing out on so much future potential just to win a single round. Which that in itself almost didn’t happen as you ended up only 2pts head of Montreal for a playoff spot and then had to play a team with 30 more points in the RS

Visions among the fanbase are conflicting, and some have construed this to mean that there is no vision. I think the goal is to try to go for high-end skilled speed, but we're missing some of the key parts for that and so it's looking like less than the sum of its parts right now.

And yeah, "immensely frustrating" is an understatement.

* * *​

Thanks for sharing. Do you have any more "f*** you for being Columbus" statements you'd like to share?

Any time

 

[BB88]

The Jackets are certainly validation of "what will happen if you take out 2/3rds of a team's defensemen via injury". Losing Werenski alone is a massive hit, but adding in three other guys means everyone else is playing up the lineup and getting minutes they are likely going to struggle with. I'm sure they would rather have Gudbranson at 18-ish minutes than over 20 minutes or having rotated 12 different defensemen into the lineup.

& on top of it they’ve had injury troubles with their goalies and Laine has missed like half the games and Voracek likely misses the rest of the season

No rebuilding team can overcome that

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Elvis needs to go to Tibet and speak with Dalai Lama. What the hell happened to him.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

You don’t know who CLB would have picked with the draft picks they traded, Nevermind that those players are still young and who knows what they will become.

You absolutely would have got more than a later first for one of the best W in the world considering both Matt Duchene and Kevin Hayes got more than that.

Were there any reports of Bobrovsky refusing to waive his NMC anywhere? Especially if his buddy Panarin was traded?

As I said, when you actually go on a real run, you’ll know 2nd round playoff loses are completely meaningless.

You don’t have to talk down to me like I’m a toddler who doesn’t understand how hockey works. I’ll take my second round playoff exit over selling elite talent for pennies on the dollar.

I can only base it off of the information given. Yeah, there are variables you mentioned. It’s not worth going through them all.

Yes, there were reports of that about Bob. The team publicly suspended him after pseudo abandoning the team after he was pulled for a game. He still didn’t want to leave until he was a UFA.

The jackets traded two C graded prospects and a first for duchene. Panarin would have probably got a similar package. Which is nothing.

Nobody thought of panarin as the top winger in the world until he went to New York. When he was with Columbus people thought he was a great player, but not elite. Go look at the posts when he signed in New York, you’ll see a lot of “overpaid” and “overrated” posts from people who weren’t Chicago or CBJ fans

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Have they tried tanking?

They not need to...

 

[nbwingsfan]

You don’t have to talk down to me like I’m a toddler who doesn’t understand how hockey works. I’ll take my second round playoff exit over selling elite talent for pennies on the dollar.

I can only base it off of the information given. Yeah, there are variables you mentioned. It’s not worth going through them all.

Yes, there were reports of that about Bob. The team publicly suspended him after pseudo abandoning the team after he was pulled for a game. He still didn’t want to leave until he was a UFA.

The jackets traded two C graded prospects and a first for duchene. Panarin would have probably got a similar package. Which is nothing.

Nobody thought of panarin as the top winger in the world until he went to New York. When he was with Columbus people thought he was a great player, but not elite. Go look at the posts when he signed in New York, you’ll see a lot of “overpaid” and “overrated” posts from people who weren’t Chicago or CBJ fans

I believe he was tied for 9th in scoring among wingers his last year in CLB. That’s absolutely one of the best.

You forgot to mention these stars you were trading “for pennies on the dollar” had a 0% chance of returning. So instead of Pennies on the dollar (ignoring 1st rd picks aren’t Pennies) is a lot better than getting nothing

Getting 1st round picks over a surprise 2nd round appearance makes a lot more sense for the future of a team.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I believe he was tied for 9th in scoring among wingers his last year in CLB. That’s absolutely one of the best.

You forgot to mention these stars you were trading “for pennies on the dollar” had a 0% chance of returning. So instead of Pennies on the dollar (ignoring 1st rd picks aren’t Pennies) is a lot better than getting nothing

Getting 1st round picks over a surprise 2nd round appearance makes a lot more sense for the future of a team.

I’m not saying we didn’t believe that. I’m saying there were plenty of people who didn’t.

Late first round picks are very unlikely to be much more than a bottom six or bottom pairing person. What a loss. It’s a mystery box.

I’ll take my 2nd round appearance over the mystery box. What ever will I do without another Liam Foudy.

 

[CBJx614]

I believe he was tied for 9th in scoring among wingers his last year in CLB. That’s absolutely one of the best.

You forgot to mention these stars you were trading “for pennies on the dollar” had a 0% chance of returning. So instead of Pennies on the dollar (ignoring 1st rd picks aren’t Pennies) is a lot better than getting nothing

Getting 1st round picks over a surprise 2nd round appearance makes a lot more sense for the future of a team.

I’m not saying we didn’t believe that. I’m saying there were plenty of people who didn’t.

Late first round picks are very unlikely to be much more than a bottom six or bottom pairing person. What a loss. It’s a mystery box.

I’ll take my 2nd round appearance over the mystery box. What ever will I do without another Liam Foudy.

As CBJW was talking about, a late first isn't the same as a lottery pick, in fact in the 2020 draft specifically, a late first has slightly better odds to play around 100 games than a second round pick. Doesn't mean you're getting a long term solution, just that they will play enough games to get an opportunity to solidify themselves partially because of the label of being a 1st round pick... Which most overwhelmingly do not secure a spot long term.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

If you want to take something simple out of this to remember for the future, it’s that an average draft class produces about 60 NHL players (between 51 and 69), and about 40 of them (between 36 and 49) will go on to play a significant career in the NHL (at least 300 games played). Those numbers are likely lower than what most expected, and they don’t even take the quality of the player into consideration – a Hall of Fame player is worth the same as a fourth line grinder in this analysis.

 

[Crede777]

I believe he was tied for 9th in scoring among wingers his last year in CLB. That’s absolutely one of the best.

You forgot to mention these stars you were trading “for pennies on the dollar” had a 0% chance of returning. So instead of Pennies on the dollar (ignoring 1st rd picks aren’t Pennies) is a lot better than getting nothing

Getting 1st round picks over a surprise 2nd round appearance makes a lot more sense for the future of a team.

It wasn't really a surprise 2nd round appearance at the time that the trade deadline went down. They had been a team with over 100 points the season before and legitimately viewed themselves as a competitive threat in the postseason.

No GM is going to ever trade away the team's best player when they're in a position to make the postseason.

 

[CBJx614]

It wasn't really a surprise 2nd round appearance at the time that the trade deadline went down. They had been a team with over 100 points the season before and legitimately viewed themselves as a competitive threat in the postseason.

No GM is going to ever trade away the team's best player when they're in a position to make the postseason.

Most fans also don't consider the need to fill seats, trading away those players and signaling a rebuild is a great way to create a lot of empty seats for the future seasons.

 

[tbcwpg]

Most fans also don't consider the need to fill seats, trading away those players and signaling a rebuild is a great way to create a lot of empty seats for the future seasons.

We've had these discussions in Winnipeg too about expiring assets and trading them no matter what against keeping them to be competitive. Sometimes the value of showing you'll try with a good roster is better than getting a second 1st round pick.

One of the ideas we saw was "fans will support a rebuild if there's a clear direction about where the team is going." Like you allude to, maybe they will in theory but that doesn't translate to spending money to go watch a bad team.

 

[Crede777]

We've had these discussions in Winnipeg too about expiring assets and trading them no matter what against keeping them to be competitive. Sometimes the value of showing you'll try with a good roster is better than getting a second 1st round pick.

One of the ideas we saw was "fans will support a rebuild if there's a clear direction about where the team is going." Like you allude to, maybe they will in theory but that doesn't translate to spending money to go watch a bad team.

I completely agree.

There's supporting a rebuild and then there's watching the team launch a rebuild when they're in a playoff position at the trade deadline.

There's also something to be said about desiring team management to have that competitive nature.

 

[tbcwpg]

I completely agree.

There's supporting a rebuild and then there's watching the team launch a rebuild when they're in a playoff position at the trade deadline.

There's also something to be said about desiring team management to have that competitive nature.

Yeah, I can understand the thought of UFAs won't go to smaller markets so you have to draft your way in, but development tracks vary so much that you'll never time it perfectly.

Pro sports are a business and you can't think only of trying to be a Cup contender every season.

 

[nbwingsfan]

As CBJW was talking about, a late first isn't the same as a lottery pick, in fact in the 2020 draft specifically, a late first has slightly better odds to play around 100 games than a second round pick. Doesn't mean you're getting a long term solution, just that they will play enough games to get an opportunity to solidify themselves partially because of the label of being a 1st round pick... Which most overwhelmingly do not secure a spot long term.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Whenever an NHL draft is approaching, the excitement level and hype around the players go through the roof. It’s an exciting time for sure but it seems like most people don’t have realistic expectations when it comes to the draft. To help with that, I decided to

dobberprospects.com

That’s still an infinite better chance of getting someone who can contribute over Panarin, Duchene and Bob who all contribute nothing for Columbus now…

It wasn't really a surprise 2nd round appearance at the time that the trade deadline went down. They had been a team with over 100 points the season before and legitimately viewed themselves as a competitive threat in the postseason.

No GM is going to ever trade away the team's best player when they're in a position to make the postseason.

When you were playing a team who had 128pts and you had 98… yes that’s a major surprise

 

[AfroThunder396]

We've had these discussions in Winnipeg too about expiring assets and trading them no matter what against keeping them to be competitive. Sometimes the value of showing you'll try with a good roster is better than getting a second 1st round pick.

One of the ideas we saw was "fans will support a rebuild if there's a clear direction about where the team is going." Like you allude to, maybe they will in theory but that doesn't translate to spending money to go watch a bad team.

This is pretty much what happened in New Jersey. Ray Shero came in and said he had a 5-year plan and laid out a vision of what that plan would be. Fast, attacking, supportive. Roll 4 lines. Build with draft picks and don't take shortcuts so that the franchise can have a core grow up together and have a long-term Cup window. Most fans were all-in.

When the Devils were in the playoff hunt in 2017, Shero traded a 2nd for Michael Grabner and a 3rd+ for Pat Maroon. He said he felt like "he owed it to the guys in the locker room" to make a push. He said that they were all trying their hardest to win games, so felt he owed it to them to do his best to make the playoffs as well. Neither trade really worked out that great, Maroon was a nice player but Grabner was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, but the message it sent to the team was very important.

Then for the 5th year, Shero loaded up with guys like Subban and Gusev, but then the wheels fell off and he got shitcanned.

But you can see his fingerprints all over the current Devils team with guys like Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Zetterlund, Boqvist, Schmid, Sharangovich, McLeod, and Bastian all being Shero draft picks. Other guys he drafted like Smith, Zacha, Anderson, and Maltsev were later moved for other pieces that are still with the Devils. Likewise, Siegenthaler, Mercer, and Bahl are all from the Taylor Hall trade tree, and Shero is not only responsible for bringing in Hall but also flipping him for a really good return.

 

[Crede777]

When you were playing a team who had 128pts and you had 98… yes that’s a major surprise

They weren't matched up against TBL at the trade deadline which is when the decision was made.

Plus, let us not forget that the Jackets made the playoffs again the following season. The real problem came when PLD and Jones both left.

 

[tbcwpg]

This is pretty much what happened in New Jersey. Ray Shero came in and said he had a 5-year plan and laid out a vision of what that plan would be. Fast, attacking, supportive. Roll 4 lines. Build with draft picks and don't take shortcuts so that the franchise can have a core grow up together and have a long-term Cup window. Most fans were all-in.

When the Devils were in the playoff hunt in 2017, Shero traded a 2nd for Michael Grabner and a 3rd+ for Pat Maroon. He said he felt like "he owed it to the guys in the locker room" to make a push. He said that they were all trying their hardest to win games, so felt he owed it to them to do his best to make the playoffs as well. Neither trade really worked out that great, Maroon was a nice player but Grabner was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, but the message it sent to the team was very important.

Then for the 5th year, Shero loaded up with guys like Subban and Gusev, but then the wheels fell off and he got shitcanned.

But you can see his fingerprints all over the current Devils team with guys like Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Zetterlund, Boqvist, Schmid, Sharangovich, McLeod, and Bastian all being Shero draft picks. Other guys he drafted like Smith, Zacha, Anderson, and Maltsev were later moved for other pieces that are still with the Devils.

Devils average attendance dropped year over year from 2015 to 2020 before covid shut it down, except a slight tick up in 2017-18, when the team was good. So fans supported the rebuild idea but fewer went out to see them actually play.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Devils average attendance dropped year over year from 2015 to 2020 before covid shut it down, except a slight tick up in 2017-18, when the team was good. So fans supported the rebuild idea but fewer went out to see them actually play.

Attendance in NJ is pretty complicated due to both the logistics of being in the NYC metro area and the relative age of the fanbase.

Fortunately NJ doesn't depend on gate revenue. The Devils own Prudential Center so ownership gets a cut from all non-Devils events held there. Owning the arena is where most of the franchise's value comes from, owning the team itself is just a nice perk. They also have a pretty lucrative TV deal.