Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Yuke]

Wtf? The Oilers window is wide open and you want to dismantle. Trading Draisaitl is about the dumbest move they could make.
So dumb I don’t know why I’m even wasting my time replying.

For 1 year

 

[Messrules11]

For 1 year

1 year? Why are we suddenly junk in 2 years? Because we trade Draisaitl and McD says f*** it I’m outta here too?

 

[Broberg Speed]

Seravalli is the absolute worst "insider". Knows nothing. Has no cred.
When Elliotte Friedman posts something, then I'll pay attention.

Seravalli and Friedman are essentially the only real insiders we have in this league that are noteworthy, in one way or another.

That scares the shit out of me. Every time either speaks a single word about the Oilers, whether it's positive or negative, I suspect something bad is about to happen, often I'm correct in my suspicions.

These guys are fed information around the clock from the league's bigwigs, owners, management groups, along with all the agents and the players they represent. If the insider has information for you to gnaw at and pick over it had to come from somewhere.

When they get something correct, reverse engineer it and follow the money. The information serves the interests of someone. In the end all parties are trying to sell this game so they can increase their chunk of the revenue.

Feeding prestigious intelligence agents, disguised as reporters, information as well as disinformation exposes how sleazy and crooked this league is from the top down.

 

[CROTT]

Seravalli is the absolute worst "insider". Knows nothing. Has no cred.
When Elliotte Friedman posts something, then I'll pay attention.

One thing though is that Draisaitl's salary for 2024-2025 could be the highest in the league, but with an eight year deal odds are it would be front loaded to have a caphit in the 13.5 million range which would be more team friendly.

 

[Yuke]

1 year? Why are we suddenly junk in 2 years? Because we trade Draisaitl and McD says f*** it I’m outta here too?

Ah, I'm wrong. Maybe 2 years with the window. How is that team looking after?

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[Drivesaitl]

Lockouts are always about money. Imposing a cap created structure of cost certainty and budget range for all consortia members to operate within tied to agreed up league hockey revenue related line items. The pie could then be carved up however each member team sees fit.

There would be zero reason for the league to deflate its revenue as it is looking to instil market confidence to grow its revenue pie through national opportunities (broadcast rights and league sponsorships) and prospective new owners with increasing valuation that lines only the owners pockets. Attracting new investors require showing and selling growth, not hiding it. The collusion days of NHL and NHLPA are long gone. They are true partners in fostering revenue growth with established, agreed upon budget lines accountable upon. Players rightfully bitched about artificial deflation with a moribund Arizona based franchise dragging down revenue but also hoarding LTIR contracts to clog cap responsibilities to live within its lowest financial range required.

Hockey's a high speed, high random sport with a ton of non-repeating variables. It's not a linear slow cook game like baseball where pitcher throws, hitter reacts, something or nothing happens. Even basketball is a simple concept. Soccer is so slow by comparison of either hockey or basketball.

For southern U.S. markets hockey is a lagging afterthought behind established pro sport options, big business college fake amateur sports, stuff like Nascar, etc. Not born into hockey, it's not necessarily a first, second or tertiary option for limited discretionary time or money. Why the game's history for greatest extend was centred around Canada and Northern U.S. big markets.

NHL marketing is what it is. You see alot of league strategy with learn to play investments with diverse youth demographics to try to nurture long-term hockey adopters who might drag mom and dad into watching the sport. The mass marketing strategies are largely focus on new fan development not necessarily entrenched hockey lifers. Agree though they have had their lunch fed them by an NBA league as one who was on equal revenue/fan levels once upon a time who shifted to innovative promotion strategy focused on elite star players with incredible talents.

I enjoy the discussion but think I/we have veered from Draisaitl's contract discussion of the thread. Probably boring everyone like a second grade MLS soccer game!

Its all well and good. Nothing is really going on so nothing wrong with a sidebar. If news comes up then we'll talk about that.

The aside on sports embracing and difficulty understanding is really quite interesting. I disagree with you. Hockey and Soccer are easily understood sports and have the same flow and basics. The speed of it doesn't matter, particularly watching on TV. Its innately easy to pick up as a viewer. On the other hand baseball, cricket, Football, they are indecipherable without understanding first hand the myriad rules. Perhaps because I have a crystal clear memory of some things I do know I immediately understood hockey to some extent. Enough to capture and embrace it. My dad had to explain Football to me, then explain it more, for me to be at all interested. Soccer too was immediate. Watched my first WC action with dad while very young and it was just like hockey but on grass with more players and bigger net. Its like English to German. Easy translation. Now on the other hand Cricket as an example. If my life depended on it I couldn't understand how its played, scored, how games are won etc. Like I say I'll never grasp nuance of baseball, but primarily because I despise everything about it.

But with anything one has to care enough to be interested to watch or invest in it. Hockey due to its speed and action can be that immediate grab. To me I don't think theres much more entertaining sports out there. Hockey should be doing much better in the Northern Hemisphere, should be bigger and its such an attractive sport. It caters to interests and even say people with ADHD who need more and quicker stimulus. Thats the other thing with Football or Baseball. Until it ever grabs you its so boring and with so much interval and stops in play.

But it strikes me that the American viewer beholden to baseball, football, Golf maybe prefers viewing experiences that are more sedate than hockey. Something about the hardcore blood and guts balls to the wall nature of hockey that kind of goes against US sentiments, which is hard to understand. When I've first hand heard Americans critique hockey its because they don't feel there is enough strategy, playbook, or stat algorithms in it. That they prefer sports that are more methodologically deconstructed. They prefer "Scientific" sports for lack of better description. Its an interesting discussion.

 

[kranuck]

Basic math, no drama at all.

Drai at $14, McDavid at $12.5, Bouchard at ~$10 (in 25-26) means we'll have ~$38.5M tied in 3 players, or roughly 41.6% of an assumed cap of $92.5 M. You ain't winning with that percentage based on historical precedent. Is it possible? Sure, I guess anything is possible, but it is HIGLY unlikely, and setting us up for failure.

Honestly, if Drai is looking for $14+, we need to at least be exploring the trade market for him. Yes, I am aware that trading Drai means McDavid likely leaves, but the haul from trading Drai might mean 2 really good chances at winning the cup, rather than only 1.

Tough spot for the team either way if Drai is trying to squeeze the team.

What precedents are you considering?

Take Toronto, do they lose because of too much cap in 4 guys or because it’s the wrong 4 guys.

Paying a buttload for the best player in the league, an elite center, and a solid offensive dman isn’t the same as paying two wingers huge money.

IMO If the oilers struggle it will be because the rest of the roster isn’t good enough because it isn’t cap efficient enough.

 

[kranuck]

If a guy who has already made over $70M in his career won't back off a little bit in terms of salary requirements then it certainly opens up the question as to what the commitment to the team is but we have no reliable sources to indicate that this is what's happening.

In terms of quantifying "a little bit" or "team friendly" then I admit I don't have the answer.

My guess is that he will still sign with the Oilers in the next 30 days.

Why should he back off what he’s worth? It’s his career, he worked his ass off to get where he is and he has a short window to earn what he can.

cap or not i support guys who go after their bag.

 

[McFlyingV]

Basic math, no drama at all.

Drai at $14, McDavid at $12.5, Bouchard at ~$10 (in 25-26) means we'll have ~$38.5M tied in 3 players, or roughly 41.6% of an assumed cap of $92.5 M. You ain't winning with that percentage based on historical precedent. Is it possible? Sure, I guess anything is possible, but it is HIGLY unlikely, and setting us up for failure.

Honestly, if Drai is looking for $14+, we need to at least be exploring the trade market for him. Yes, I am aware that trading Drai means McDavid likely leaves, but the haul from trading Drai might mean 2 really good chances at winning the cup, rather than only 1.

Tough spot for the team either way if Drai is trying to squeeze the team.

That's for the beginning of the contract. Cap will likely continue to rise well over 100M during their contracts and all players mentioned should be stars for the majority of their contracts.

 

[foshizzle]

the scenario we are discussing involves pretending all players are taking less on contracts so other players will get more money.

Im saying in this scenario owners will fill out a 23 man roster and keep the rest of the profits rather than pay 3rd and 4th line players more because they aren't near the cap. Remember, in this scenario the player have gathered together to take less on contracts. Thats where the fairy dust unicorn comment comes from.

The owners won't spend a cent more than they need too, Its why I m arguing that its not a zero sum game, its player vs player vs owner, not players vs owners, the money in the system is reliant on players getting the most they can, because if they start taking less owners start paying less ( to a limit set by the cap floor, but thats easily changed via CBA negotiations, well, not "easily" but the money in the system can change if the players don't fight for their bag. a handful of players taking less won't matter much, but the poster I was replying to suggested that say Drai talking less on his contract means Connor Brown gets more money and im saying thats not that true, and that the owner would just pocket the extra money. each player has to fight for their own interests ( more money) for the system to work.


nah, Im a huge fan of guaranteed contracts, Its better for the players and owners. NFL is a league of haves and have nots.

What should change is the way players are allowed to be sent down for under performing without risk of losing them.

I think guaranteed contracts allow for greater flexibility in players personal lives and really should be a right in every aspect of labour.

Sorry, but I’m not understanding what you are saying. Draisaitl taking less means that another player can be signed. If Nurse makes 3M less, Holloway would still be here. There is a cap, Katz wouldn’t pocket the 3M, he’d spend it on another player.

The NFL has the most profitable and successful league on the planet. They aren’t a league of haves and have nots. Players sign for huge money. They ask for trades all the time. They switch teams during free agency, teams should have the same right- an option to get out from an u dear performing contract. Just like you and I can get fired, so should they. A job isn’t a right in any aspect of labour. Performance matters

 

[Fourier]

At no point was I debating that in current exchange. My take is that the CBA will change, and the rules change, because teams continue to fudge figures on revenue which NHLPA will again accuse them of. I was pointing out futures, and stated that several times in the thread. The NHLPA will demand a different type of agreement and probably a softer cap or Larry Bird exemptions. etc.

If the players position is to get rid of revenue sharing and a hard cap then they had better be looking for alternative places to play because there will be no NHL hockey until they drop that demand. Of that I am 99.99999999% sure.

The big complaint you herar out of the NHLAP revolves around escrow. That is in itself often based on a lack of understanding of how the system works but none the less it is probably a solvable issue given where the cap ceiling is relative to revenues. Right now the old formula has the ceiling at 15% above the mid point. But the current ceiling is probably close to the midpoint. Even with say a $10M increase in the ceiling up to the expiry day of this CBA the ceiling would likely be well under the 15% gap away from the midpoint. The current CBA fixes escrow at a max of 6%. That could be effectively achieved by setting the ceiling at 5-6% above the midpoint. If they did that and if the NHL kept growing revenues at anywhere near the current pace, this would practically eliminate escrow.

 

[TB12]

Then why respond. I'm guessing you cannot come up with an reasoning just "cause we will be in darkness". Lol

There is a chance we lose Bouchard if we sign Leon at 14 million plus. McDavid knows a team cannot survive with 4 guys taking the majority of pay, maybe he doesn't want to stay on a team fighting for playoffs? Leon or Bouchard can give us a great return if done correctly, or they just sign team friendly deals and it is all good.

So we're literally just putting thoughts into people's heads now? How the f*** do you know what Connor's thinking? I've seen him at the golf course yelling at Nuge to "not take a penny less than he's worth".

Can't just make shit up and say "McD thinks this", bro.

 

[Yuke]

So we're literally just putting thoughts into people's heads now? How the f*** do you know what Connor's thinking? I've seen him at the golf course yelling at Nuge to "not take a penny less than he's worth".

Can't just make shit up and say "McD thinks this", bro.

Only 1 team has won with 4 guys taking just over 50% of the cap. And I believe that was under 51%. The projection was our 4 guys around 59%. I suspect CM knows his numbers. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

 

[MoontoScott]

Why should he back off what he’s worth? It’s his career, he worked his ass off to get where he is and he has a short window to earn what he can.

cap or not i support guys who go after their bag.

But how do you quantify what he's worth if you are the Oilers?

 

[MoontoScott]

If the players position is to get rid of revenue sharing and a hard cap then they had better be looking for alternative places to play because there will be no NHL hockey until they drop that demand. Of that I am 99.99999999% sure.

The big complaint you herar out of the NHLAP revolves around escrow. That is in itself often based on a lack of understanding of how the system works but none the less it is probably a solvable issue given where the cap ceiling is relative to revenues. Right now the old formula has the ceiling at 15% above the mid point. But the current ceiling is probably close to the midpoint. Even with say a $10M increase in the ceiling up to the expiry day of this CBA the ceiling would likely be well under the 15% gap away from the midpoint. The current CBA fixes escrow at a max of 6%. That could be effectively achieved by setting the ceiling at 5-6% above the midpoint. If they did that and if the NHL kept growing revenues at anywhere near the current pace, this would practically eliminate escrow.

It would be a good poll question. If the league dropped revenue sharing and a hard salary cap then how many teams would be in financial trouble within a few years?

Of course, there is no way that the owners will go for elimination of the cap.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

One thing though is that Draisaitl's salary for 2024-2025 could be the highest in the league, but with an eight year deal odds are it would be front loaded to have a caphit in the 13.5 million range which would be more team friendly.

I've said all along that it starts at $14 mil. Anything less would be a bargain for the Oilers.

 

[9GWG9]

Word is the big boys stood in front of the group and stated they would be leaving some on the table. The media is just looking for hits.

I'm sure he comes in @ 13.29M avv.

 

[ManofSteel55]

For 1 year

Only if Drai refuses to sign here. That's the only scenario where our window slams shut in a year. McDavid likely leaves then too, which would suck horribly, and would bring on the next decade of darkness in my opinion. You can't recover from losing two top 5 players.

Word is the big boys stood in front of the group and stated they would be leaving some on the table. The media is just looking for hits.

I'm sure he comes in @ 13.29M avv.

I hope you're right. I've expected 14M, but 13.29 would be nice. I just hope they finalize it soon. I'm nervous as all heck about it.

 

[Mr Positive]

Only if Drai refuses to sign here. That's the only scenario where our window slams shut in a year. McDavid likely leaves then too, which would suck horribly, and would bring on the next decade of darkness in my opinion. You can't recover from losing two top 5 players.


I hope you're right. I've expected 14M, but 13.29 would be nice. I just hope they finalize it soon. I'm nervous as all heck about it.

I just want him to sign. If it's a million aav more than I'd like I still say I'm glad he's staying

 

[timekeep]

Here is a way to explain it to them.

You and your three friends have a delicious pie that you all desperately want to eat. If one guy eats most of the pie, the others may not be happy. Or even simpler. You four have a pizza with 12 slices. On guy takes 9. What do the others say.

Thanks for saving me a piece!

 

[Drivesaitl]

If the players position is to get rid of revenue sharing and a hard cap then they had better be looking for alternative places to play because there will be no NHL hockey until they drop that demand. Of that I am 99.99999999% sure.

The big complaint you herar out of the NHLAP revolves around escrow. That is in itself often based on a lack of understanding of how the system works but none the less it is probably a solvable issue given where the cap ceiling is relative to revenues. Right now the old formula has the ceiling at 15% above the mid point. But the current ceiling is probably close to the midpoint. Even with say a $10M increase in the ceiling up to the expiry day of this CBA the ceiling would likely be well under the 15% gap away from the midpoint. The current CBA fixes escrow at a max of 6%. That could be effectively achieved by setting the ceiling at 5-6% above the midpoint. If they did that and if the NHL kept growing revenues at anywhere near the current pace, this would practically eliminate escrow.

You sure?



Lost in this I guess is that in order for a membership such as the NHLPA to be persuaded the information provided should at least be persuasive, clearly worded, and in understandable terms. The fault with misunderstanding often involves how the information is communicated. I've seen escrow explanations, not just yours that don't exactly clarify all that well. I've also seen sources online that do a better job explaining.

Escrow 101: A guide to NHL escrow in the salary cap world - The Win Column

Making sense of what escrow is in the NHL and its impact the league in 2023–24, and what can be done about it in the future.

thewincolumn.ca

 

[fuswald]

The longer this takes the higher people here are accepting.

I'm holding to 12.5mil. His play will drop off halfway into the contract. Won't be a bum but the value then...

 

[Fourier]

You sure?



Lost in this I guess is that in order for a membership such as the NHLPA to be persuaded the information provided should at least be persuasive, clearly worded, and in understandable terms. The fault with misunderstanding often involves how the information is communicated. I've seen escrow explanations, not just yours that don't exactly clarify all that well. I've also seen sources online that do a better job explaining.

Escrow 101: A guide to NHL escrow in the salary cap world - The Win Column

Making sense of what escrow is in the NHL and its impact the league in 2023–24, and what can be done about it in the future.

thewincolumn.ca

I did say only 99.99999999% sure.

If an agent can't explain escrow in plain language to their client they have no business representing that player.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I did say only 99.99999999% sure.

If an agent can't explain escrow in plain language to their client they have no business representing that player.

But this is selective bias on your part. Not everybody understands such concepts and even with adequate explanation. You love math, I get it, I understand the escrow myself. Some players wouldn't. Thing is players might even feign understanding, nod their head, while not listening to a word of it.

Conversely there might be other domains, maybe Shakespeare, that you'd have trouble following.

The audience the agents are speaking to are not necessarily adept, or even competent in the area of understanding in question.

 

[Fourier]

But this is selective bias on your part. Not everybody understands such concepts and even with adequate explanation. You love math, I get it, I understand the escrow myself. Some players wouldn't. Thing is players might even feign understanding, nod their head, while not listening to a word of it.

Conversely there might be other domains, maybe Shakespeare, that you'd have trouble following.

The audience the agents are speaking to are not necessarily adept, or even competent in the area of understanding in question.

I happen to love Shakespeare. Visiting the New Globe Theatre was a major highlight of one of my trips to London.

If you are taking 3% of a guy's $7M salary and you can't explain escrow to him you need to be fired. And no doubt some players may not want to listen, but again that is your job. The players don't need to understand very fine detail. To understand the basic concept, the math is actually about Grade 5 level and I am not even exaggerating.