Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[CantHaveTkachev]

I remember hearing something about Drai saying the Oilers have the best owner in pro sports, and maybe Drai and Katz having a long hug during the playoffs?

Does anyone have details or supporting evidence of this?

Seravelli said it to Stauffer on his show back during the Cup final

 

[bucks_oil]

Jackson could probably pry Cozens, Power and one of Kulich/Benson for Drai

Even if he pulled off a miracle like that, it remains fantasy because you've just illustrated Fourier's point above perfectly.

Cozens is due to earn $7.1M next year and Power will earn $8.3... the other guys are on ELC, so they matter less... but there is no way for us to absorb another $7M on our cap this year without significant departures (that might be impossible to move at this late stage in offseason).

 

[Canovin]

Even if he pulled off a miracle like that, it remains fantasy because you've just illustrated Fourier's point above perfectly.

Cozens is due to earn $7.1M next year and Power will earn $8.3... the other guys are on ELC, so they matter less... but there is no way for us to absorb another $7M on our cap this year without significant departures (that might be impossible to move at this late stage in offseason).

LTIR Kane and move Ceci for a pick. That leaves us with 1.4M for a raise for Holloway and Broberg. The Oilers can even add a pick to have Buffao retain a little. Next year would be tricky tho as we won't be able to LTIR Kane

 

[Broberg Speed]

Even if he pulled off a miracle like that, it remains fantasy because you've just illustrated Fourier's point above perfectly.

Cozens is due to earn $7.1M next year and Power will earn $8.3... the other guys are on ELC, so they matter less... but there is no way for us to absorb another $7M on our cap this year without significant departures (that might be impossible to move at this late stage in offseason).

That's the road to failure, you're basically on magic bean road at that point and stopped competing for the cup. I don't care who gives a fanboy shit about Cozens or Power... and I'd stop watching if it happened.

It's just f***ing dumb how posters get mesmerized by magic beans. These aren't great players. They will never be great players. I don't give a flying f*** about their draft pedigree and they both will soon be grossly overpaid.

Boom

 

[BudBundy]

Now that our “big hire” has been done, we’d better see some signs of progress here. Bowman gets zero benefit of the doubt from me so get on with it.

 

[bucks_oil]

That's the road to failure, you're basically on magic bean road at that point and stopped competing for the cup. I don't care who gives a fanboy shit about Cozens or Power... and I'd stop watching if it happened.

It's just f***ing dumb how posters get mesmerized by magic beans. These aren't great players. They will never be great players. I don't give a flying f*** about their draft pedigree and they both will soon be grossly overpaid.

Boom

Follow along Broberg Speed... I wasn't advocating for it, I was explaining why it isn't feasible and so the best course of action is to keep Drai and go for broke this season, fall back to free agency next summer if you must.

 

[bucks_oil]

LTIR Kane and move Ceci for a pick. That leaves us with 1.4M for a raise for Holloway and Broberg. The Oilers can even add a pick to have Buffao retain a little. Next year would be tricky tho as we won't be able to LTIR Kane

Aren't you double counting? We already have to move Ceci this summer just to accommodate our current overage. I also think it's wishful thinking (and certainly not something management can actively plan for) to have Kane on LTIR all season. That's a big stretch to have a sports hernia surgery take you out for 6 months.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Follow along Broberg Speed... I wasn't advocating for it, I was explaining why it isn't feasible and so the best course of action is to keep Drai and go for broke this season, fall back to free agency next summer if you must.

It doesn't matter if we lose Draisaitl to a dumbass trade or he walks as an unrestricted free agent, I'll be finished with the team if either scenario happens. I've had enough and losing Draisaitl would be the final straw. For myself, there will be nothing to follow. Your attempted wisecrack was a failure.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Now that our “big hire” has been done, we’d better see some signs of progress here. Bowman gets zero benefit of the doubt from me so get on with it.

You got that straight.

 

[Canovin]

Aren't you double counting? We already have to move Ceci this summer just to accommodate our current overage. I also think it's wishful thinking (and certainly not something management can actively plan for) to have Kane on LTIR all season. That's a big stretch to have a sports hernia surgery take you out for 6 months.

We are 300K over and still have to extend Holloway and Broberg. Trading Ceci will make us cap compliant. We don't have to LTIR Kane if we trade Ceci

 

[TheNumber4]

Yes for 5 million. Then sign Leon for 9 million

Like why the f*** not. We wanna find the next Seider and Stutzle anyways.

That’s ridiculous.

But it’s true though. If McD and Drai ever leave. Plan A B and C should be scorched earth rebuild. Let’s not delude ourselves back into a decade of darkness type attempt at “competing”.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Like why the f*** not. We wanna find the next Seider and Stutzle anyways.


But it’s true though. If McD and Drai ever leave. Plan A B and C should be scorched earth rebuild. Let’s not delude ourselves back into a decade of darkness type attempt at “competing”.

If we’re going scorched earth rebuild because McDrai are leaving shouldn’t we trade them for assets?

 

[TheNumber4]

If we’re going scorched earth rebuild because McDrai are leaving shouldn’t we trade them for assets?

Not without taking one last shot at fixing that. It’s essentially what we’ve been building for the last 10 years, 20 years if you really wanna go deep.

If they leave, we will have plenty other assets that will become unneeded by that point anyways. Nuge, Hyms, others can get back a haul for the rebuild we will need.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Not without taking one last shot at fixing that. It’s essentially what we’ve been building for the last 10 years, 20 years if you really wanna go deep.

If they leave, we will have plenty other assets that will become unneeded by that point anyways. Nuge, Hyms, others can get back a haul for the rebuild we will need.

Lots on the line for 1 cup run but I get it.

 

[TheNumber4]

Lots on the line for 1 cup run but I get it.

What’s a rental Drai worth anyways. 2 first round picks in the 25-32 range and a prospect?

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

What’s a rental Drai worth anyways. 2 first round picks in the 25-32 range and a prospect?

Why would only 25-32 draft range teams want to trade for him? I’m sure LA would be in on it. I’m sure the trading team would only trade for him if he agrees to resign so it wouldn’t exactly be a rental.

I have no idea what he could bring back in a trade but he would be a franchise changer. What would a team like LA give to go from wild card team to contender? Or Boston who struggles getting it done in the playoffs locking down one of the best to do it come post season?

Anyways again he’s signing so I guess we will never know!

 

[TheNumber4]

Why would only 25-32 draft range teams want to trade for him? I’m sure LA would be in on it. I’m sure the trading team would only trade for him if he agrees to resign so it wouldn’t exactly be a rental.

I have no idea what he could bring back in a trade but he would be a franchise changer. What would a team like LA give to go from wild card team to contender? Or Boston who struggles getting it done in the playoffs locking down one of the best to do it come post season?

Anyways again he’s signing so I guess we will never know!

I assume that anyone willing to trade for Drai would be a move that puts them over the top. But you’re right, it could be a lower rung playoff team. But it’ll be atleast a playoff team which means later 1st. But yeh it’s a moot point cause he’s singing here anyways

12.5M 12.5M 12.5M 12.5M

 

[Fourier]

Why would only 25-32 draft range teams want to trade for him? I’m sure LA would be in on it. I’m sure the trading team would only trade for him if he agrees to resign so it wouldn’t exactly be a rental.

I have no idea what he could bring back in a trade but he would be a franchise changer. What would a team like LA give to go from wild card team to contender? Or Boston who struggles getting it done in the playoffs locking down one of the best to do it come post season?

Anyways again he’s signing so I guess we will never know!

I fully agree that he is signing so this threat is very hypothetical in my mind. But in the very unlikely event that he would not Draisaitl's NMC with a 10 team trade list pretty much means that he chooses where he would go.

The last thing the Oilers should do is to trade Draisaitl for a mediocre return that eats up cap. For a trade to make sense it has to keep the window as open as possible this year and not handicap the team from making up any lost ground next year or you risk having McDavid leave as well.

If he is choosing to leave it would not be for money since the Oilers can clearly give him as much as anyone else and can add the extra year. So it would have to be for either a chance to win or lifestyle. If it is lifestyle, then who knows where he wants to be. If it is a chance to win then it would almost surely have to be a current contender or a team that is at least close. If not then once you subtract the value that Leon would get back he is starting over again.

Lets look at LA and Boston:

LA: For this to make sense for the Oilers for an essentially signed Draisaitl. (Without the promise he would sign I don't see a deal from LA as they have very little cap space as is and beyond Clarke, their futures are not worth much.) I think the deal would be Byfield and Clarke. Maybe Kempe and Clarke. Otherwise, you are stepping back too far from the Oilers perspective and I think the Oilers just ride it out. If they made either deal, LA has at the very best a 1-2 year window as a contender. And even at that I'd say their chances would still be as a very long shot. And I doubt LA would make this deal anyway.

Boston: Again, I don't see Boston going the rental route or it would be one shot and done. They would need to know Draisaitl was signing. After Boston signs Swayman they will also be right up at the cap or very close to it so again it would be a money in money out sort of deal. Assuming Swayman is off the table the only player on the Bruins that would make a whole lot of sense is McAvoy. Though I could see the trying something like Carlo and Zacha. But like LA Boston has an aging core. I think they are in better shape to make this deal than LA as they might be able to contend for longer.

 

[Canovin]

I fully agree that he is signing so this threat is very hypothetical in my mind. But in the very unlikely event that he would not Draisaitl's NMC with a 10 team trade list pretty much means that he chooses where he would go.

The last thing the Oilers should do is to trade Draisaitl for a mediocre return that eats up cap. For a trade to make sense it has to keep the window as open as possible this year and not handicap the team from making up any lost ground next year or you risk having McDavid leave as well.

If he is choosing to leave it would not be for money since the Oilers can clearly give him as much as anyone else and can add the extra year. So it would have to be for either a chance to win or lifestyle. If it is lifestyle, then who knows where he wants to be. If it is a chance to win then it would almost surely have to be a current contender or a team that is at least close. If not then once you subtract the value that Leon would get back he is starting over again.

Lets look at LA and Boston:

LA: For this to make sense for the Oilers for an essentially signed Draisaitl. (Without the promise he would sign I don't see a deal from LA as they have very little cap space as is and beyond Clarke, their futures are not worth much.) I think the deal would be Byfield and Clarke. Maybe Kempe and Clarke. Otherwise, you are stepping back too far from the Oilers perspective and I think the Oilers just ride it out. If they made either deal, LA has at the very best a 1-2 year window as a contender. And even at that I'd say their chances would still be as a very long shot. And I doubt LA would make this deal anyway.

Boston: Again, I don't see Boston going the rental route or it would be one shot and done. They would need to know Draisaitl was signing. After Boston signs Swayman they will also be right up at the cap or very close to it so again it would be a money in money out sort of deal. Assuming Swayman is off the table the only player on the Bruins that would make a whole lot of sense is McAvoy. Though I could see the trying something like Carlo and Zacha. But like LA Boston has an aging core. I think they are in better shape to make this deal than LA as they might be able to contend for longer.

Boston doesn't make any sense now with Elias Lindholm signing there. LA isn't going to mortgage their future for Draisaitl unless Oilers wants nothing back for Draisaitl

 

[Fourier]

Boston doesn't make any sense now with Elias Lindholm signing there. LA isn't going to mortgage their future for Draisaitl unless Oilers wants nothing back for Draisaitl

I actually agree. It's in good part why I think a trade would be less attractive than some think even if he would not re-sign.

 

[bucks_oil]

We are 300K over and still have to extend Holloway and Broberg. Trading Ceci will make us cap compliant. We don't have to LTIR Kane if we trade Ceci

Yes... I know that. In broad strokes, we need to trade Ceci to make room for Holloway and Broberg (with some spare change left over depending on the structure of those deals)... that's part of my point.

Ceci needs to go even to get back to baseline, so your statement that we could take on $16M in cap for Power+Cozens by trading Ceci and LTIR Kane doesn't jive. Ceci's cap is used up on our current overage (300K) + Broberg ($1.5) + Holloway (1.5)... we still have to find $16M for Power+Cozens with only Draisaitl ($8.5) out the door... Kane's $5.125 doesn't make up the extra.... where does the extra ~$3M come from?

The broad point being in any Draisaitl trade that involves established NHL talent in return (which is what we need) we don't even have the cap flexibility to take it on without suffering elsewhere in our depth.

That's a huge factor in my position that if we can't sign him the next best alternative is to KEEP him and resign ourselves to potentially losing him next summer... when we would have more available cap (presumably the $13M we budget for him) to find reinforcements. Trading him now with an equitable on-ice return isn't even feasible because of our cap constraints.

 

[Fourier]

Yes... I know that. In broad strokes, we need to trade Ceci to make room for Holloway and Broberg (with some spare change left over depending on the structure of those deals)... that's part of my point.

Ceci needs to go even to get back to baseline, so your statement that we could take on $16M in cap for Power+Cozens by trading Ceci and LTIR Kane doesn't jive. Ceci's cap is used up on our current overage (300K) + Broberg ($1.5) + Holloway (1.5)... we still have to find $16M for Power+Cozens with only Draisaitl ($8.5) out the door... Kane's $5.125 doesn't make up the extra.... where does the extra ~$3M come from?

The broad point being in any Draisaitl trade that involves established NHL talent in return (which is what we need) we don't even have the cap flexibility to take it on without suffering elsewhere in our depth.

That's a huge factor in my position that if we can't sign him the next best alternative is to KEEP him and resign ourselves to potentially losing him next summer... when we would have more available cap (presumably the $13M we budget for him) to find reinforcements. Trading him now with an equitable on-ice return isn't even feasible because of our cap constraints.

I completely agree. In principle one would generally look at letting a guy like Draisaitl walk as massive error. But after having thought about this quite a bit and even changing my position, I think the situation here is quite unique and that even if he won't sign now you ride it out.

 

[Aerchon]

Not sure it's been mentioned but doesn't Draisaitl have a no move? If so I suspect he controls his destiny this year and I would be shocked if he would even consider waiving.

 

[Sanchez]

Not sure it's been mentioned but doesn't Draisaitl have a no move? If so I suspect he controls his destiny this year and I would be shocked if he would even consider waiving.

Years 6-8: NMC and 10 team trade list.

 

[Aerchon]

Years 6-8: NMC and 10 team trade list.

Ty, just went and checked myself as well. Boo no capfriendly.

10 team lists are developed upon request? Or on signing? My understanding is upon request and can be manipulated in such a way to make trading a player very difficult. At least that is what I've heard.