Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[CupofOil]

It’s one heck of a question isn’t it. I think it’s really unlikely they trade him. They gotta shoot for the cup, but losing him for nothing would be a disaster too. I guess if he tells you there is no way he’s resigning you probably have to look at it. I have thought a lot about this scenario, and I just can’t land on an answer, I’m sure there will be some strong opinions here.

It's not really much of a question. You sign him or trade him because if he's not signing this offseason it likely means he wants to test free agency or in other words, wants to sign elsewhere. If you don't want to be here we have to let you go. Hard decision because it's Draisaitl but easy in the sense that there is no other choice.
JJ or whoever the GM is needs to have a sit down with him if he decides not to sign and explore trade options and also have the talk with McDavid because he's a big part of it too.

In any event, he's going to sign so this will all be moot before long.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Not trading him.

He's playing the playoffs no matter what.

If he walks he walks, but we need him for the playoffs. We're going all-in

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Not trading him.

He's playing the playoffs no matter what.

If he walks he walks, but we need him for the playoffs. We're going all-in

That’s not all in, thats organization suicide.

 

[Messrules11]

Drai isn’t going anywhere, any talk of trading him is insane. He’s been underpaid for years, whatever he signs for is fine by me.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

That’s not all in, thats organization suicide.

No it's not.

If Drai isn't an Oiler, McDavid will likely leave too. Then we're rebuilding again anyways

If that's what it is, that's what it is.
One last shot at the cup.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

No it's not.

If Drai isn't an Oiler, McDavid will likely leave too. Then we're rebuilding again anyways

If that's what it is, that's what it is.
One last shot at the cup.

That’s ridiculous.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

That’s ridiculous.

There's no scenario where we trade Draisaitl as a rental and we end up a better team.

None.

There's no scenario in where 3x 1st round picks from a contender (25th-32nd) makes us better. Rentals don't get back roster players either.

Whatever dream scenario trade you have concocted in your head is not worth 1 more legitimate chance at a cup.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

There's no scenario where we trade Draisaitl as a rental and we end up a better team.

None.

There's no scenario in where 3x 1st round picks from a contender (25th-32nd) makes us better. Rentals don't get back roster players either.

Whatever dream scenario trade you have concocted in your head is not worth 1 more legitimate chance at a cup.

I don’t agree. Would you trade 3 first round picks at the TDL for one run at the cup? It’s putting way too much on the line for one run at the cup.

 

[bucks_oil]

It's not really much of a question. You sign him or trade him because if he's not signing this offseason it likely means he wants to test free agency or in other words, wants to sign elsewhere. If you don't want to be here we have to let you go. Hard decision because it's Draisaitl but easy in the sense that there is no other choice.
JJ or whoever the GM is needs to have a sit down with him if he decides not to sign and explore trade options and also have the talk with McDavid because he's a big part of it too.

In any event, he's going to sign so this will all be moot before long.

Option B: If you trade him your going to get two decent players (in the $5-6M range) and pick or prospect or two.

Option C: If you go all in and then lose him as UFA you are going to spend the $13M you set aside for him on two decent players (in the $5-6M range) and you will still trade his rights for a 2nd round pick.

I don't like either option, obviously you'd rather have Plan A materialize with a contract... but I see very little difference between Option B and Option C and what difference there is not worth missing out on Drai for the playoffs.

I think you just gotta keep him and deal with the consequences. Option C isn't that much worse than Option B.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Option B: If you trade him your going to get two decent players (in the $5-6M range) and pick or prospect or two.

Option C: If you go all in and then lose him as UFA you are going to spend the $13M you set aside for him on two decent players (in the $5-6M range) and you will still trade his rights for a 2nd round pick.

I don't like either option, obviously you'd rather have Plan A materialize with a contract... but I see very little difference between Option B and Option C and what difference there is not worth missing out on Drai for the playoffs.

I think you just gotta keep him and deal with the consequences. Option C isn't that much worse than Option B.

Look at the package Calgary got for Tkachuk and Drai is a better player. It obviously didn’t work out but it was a hell of a package. I feel like you are underestimating what a top 5 player in the league would bring back in a trade.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I don’t agree. Would you trade 3 first round picks at the TDL for one run at the cup? It’s putting way too much on the line for one run at the cup.

Same price as a rental.
Same longterm implications too.

What would be pay to get Kucherov or MacKinnon as a rental?

Think of our last 3x 1st round picks.
Sam O Reilly
Reid Schaeffer
Xavier Bourgault


This is what we would give up to acquire Draisaitl as a rental. And this is literally what we would get in a return for Drai.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Same price as a rental.
Same longterm implications too.

What would be pay to get Kucherov or MacKinnon as a rental?

Think of our last 3x 1st round picks.
Sam O Reilly
Reid Schaeffer
Xavier Bourgault


This is what we would give up to acquire Draisaitl as a rental. And this is literally what we would get in a return for Drai.

It’s not a rental. The team trading for him would no doubt make sure he wants to re-sign there. What would I trade for a year of Mackinnon plus him resigning? A lot more than that package you laid out.

 

[Broberg Speed]

It’s not a rental. The team trading for him would no doubt make sure he wants to re-sign there. What would I trade for a year of Mackinnon plus him resigning? A lot more than that package you laid out.

you'll get f***ing crap in a trade... with fanboys pretending the shit is sugar candy as they gobble it up while we enter the next decade of darkness

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Look at the package Calgary got for Tkachuk and Drai is a better player. It obviously didn’t work out but it was a hell of a package. I feel like you are underestimating what a top 5 player in the league would bring back in a trade.

Next 2025 UFA in a Trade-and-Sign?

We're getting Mitch Marner on an extension! WOOT!

 

[CupofOil]

Same price as a rental.
Same longterm implications too.

What would be pay to get Kucherov or MacKinnon as a rental?

Think of our last 3x 1st round picks.
Sam O Reilly
Reid Schaeffer
Xavier Bourgault


This is what we would give up to acquire Draisaitl as a rental. And this is literally what we would get in a return for Drai.

Calgary got what was a top line forward, a top pair Dman and a 1st round pick for Tkachuk, granted both guys were pending UFAs but I think it was sort of known that they'd be signed long term when the trade was made like Tkachuk with Florida. What Calgary did with the Huberdeau contract after that was another story but that's a pretty good haul.

Nobody wants to trade Drai, it's a really shitty option but an even shittier option is allowing to him walk for nothing but cap space.

If he's not signing long term, make no mistake, it means he doesn't want to be here so who wants that hanging over their head. You're having one last Cup run with a guy who has designs on being elsewhere, that's not good for anybody. You maximize the value of the asset and move forward.
If McDavid doesn't want to here as a result then so be it. Can't have players here who don't want to be here.

Anyway, it'll be nice when this isn't even a discussion anymore a month or so from now when he's locked up.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Next 2025 UFA in a Trade-and-Sign?

We're getting Mitch Marner on an extension! WOOT!

Jesus. Now add a top 4 D and a 1st round pick. Obviously it would suck but it would be light years better than losing him for nothing.

He’s staying anyways so let’s just agree to disagree.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Next 2025 UFA in a Trade-and-Sign?

We're getting Mitch Marner on an extension! WOOT!

Will he be making more or less than Huberdeau ?

A two for one deal. The trade makes the Oilers an unwatchable team while taking up all our cap space.

If Draisaitl leaves, via trade or free agency, I will no longer be watching.

Jesus. Now add a top 4 D and a 1st round pick. Obviously it would suck but it would be light years better than losing him for nothing.

He’s staying anyways so let’s just agree to disagree.

delusional... brick to the head f***ing imaginativeness

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Will he be making more or less than Huberdeau ?

A two for one deal. The trade makes the Oilers an unwatchable team while taking up all our cap space.

If Draisaitl leaves, via trade or free agency, I will no longer be watching.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

delusional... f***ing delusional

How is it delusional? That’s what they got back for Tkachuk in a trade.

 

[bucks_oil]

Look at the package Calgary got for Tkachuk and Drai is a better player. It obviously didn’t work out but it was a hell of a package. I feel like you are underestimating what a top 5 player in the league would bring back in a trade.

I don't disagree that Calgary (on paper) got a massive haul. However the contract situations were a bit different and even though both Tkachuk and Drai were entering a final "team controlled" year, Tkachuk was doing so as a 24-year old 105 point scorer. I think you could argue that a just-entering-prime aged player like Tkachuk was at least comparable in value to a 29 year old Drai due to be paid $13+ next year.

And so Calgary got two players (each due for new contracts soon) who at the time were making a combined $10M. That's pretty comparable to what I said we could expect... a couple of players making $6 each and a couple of picks/prospects.

Taking recent examples... what do you rather have: Huberdeau (now at a new inflated contract) + Weegar (also with his new contract), or two astute signings like Hyman + Nuge?

Or look at this year for examples: are UFA's Pesce (or Skjei) + Marchessault (or Debrusk) that much worse than the players you'd expect to acquire for Drai? Is the difference worth passing on the chance at another shot with Drai?

And for next year, the UFA crop is pretty good, who knows who makes it to UFA, but a Theodore + Konecny/Boeser/Bennet would look pretty good: https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/_/year/2025/sort/contract_average/dir/desc

My point is that there is no guarantee that the players you get in return for Draisaitl are that much more suited to our goal of winning the cup than signing two known UFA vets who fit into our gaps.

The players acquired in trade might be a bit younger, or more valuable longer term, or cheaper (in the short term), but you can't be sure that the better value justifies not having that one last chance at a cup with Drai.

No matter what, Plan A is to keep Drai, but if Plan B is trade now and Plan C is keep him and then spend his $13M on UFA... I just don't think the difference between Plan B and Plan C is worth blowing things up this summer after we were one win away AND got better this offseason.

We have no choice but to go for it.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I don't disagree that Calgary (on paper) got a massive haul. However the contract situations were a bit different and even though both Tkachuk and Drai were entering a final "team controlled" year, Tkachuk was doing so as a 24-year old 105 point scorer. I think you could argue that a just-entering-prime aged player like Tkachuk was at least comparable in value to a 29 year old Drai due to be paid $13+ next year.

And so Calgary got two players (each due for new contracts soon) who at the time were making a combined $10M. That's pretty comparable to what I said we could expect... a couple of players making $6 each and a couple of picks/prospects.

Taking recent examples... what do you rather have: Huberdeau (now at a new inflated contract) + Weegar (also with his new contract), or two astute signings like Hyman + Nuge?

Or look at this year for examples: are UFA's Pesce (or Skjei) + Marchessault (or Debrusk) that much worse than the players you'd expect to acquire for Drai? Is the difference worth passing on the chance at another shot with Drai?

And for next year, the UFA crop is pretty good, who knows who makes it to UFA, but a Theodore + Konecny/Boeser/Bennet would look pretty good: https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/_/year/2025/sort/contract_average/dir/desc

My point is that there is no guarantee that the players you get in return for Draisaitl are that much more suited to our goal of winning the cup than signing two known UFA vets who fit into our gaps.

The players acquired in trade might be a bit younger, or more valuable longer term, or cheaper (in the short term), but you can't be sure that the better value justifies not having that one last chance at a cup with Drai.

No matter what, Plan A is to keep Drai, but if Plan B is trade now and Plan C is keep him and then spend his $13M on UFA... I just don't think the difference between Plan B and Plan C is worth blowing things up this summer after we were one win away AND got better this offseason.

We have no choice but to go for it.

Fair points. Tkachuk is younger but Drai is a centre and a better player.

I mean obviously I wouldn’t want Huberdeau now but who could have predicted he would have the biggest point fall off in NHL history. He was a superstar in Florida. Had he picked up where he left off in Florida the Flames become pretty good.

That being said I’m not saying trade Drai for peanuts. If the Oilers aren’t offered a significant, significant package then I agree you hold onto him for a final cup run.

He’s signing soon though.

 

[jukon]

I remember hearing something about Drai saying the Oilers have the best owner in pro sports, and maybe Drai and Katz having a long hug during the playoffs?

Does anyone have details or supporting evidence of this?

 

[Fourier]

Look at the package Calgary got for Tkachuk and Drai is a better player. It obviously didn’t work out but it was a hell of a package. I feel like you are underestimating what a top 5 player in the league would bring back in a trade.

One problem you have is that Draisaitl's cap hit is only $8.5M this year which means that if you are going for established players you are very unlikely to get that home run return of multiple stars. You are going to have to accept some level of futures in such a trade. The best you might hope for is a guy in the $6M range and a guy on his ELC with great promise. Draisaitl would probably have a very small number if contenders he would accept a trade to. Unfortunately right now few contenders have $6M players who might possibly be available that are really all that impactful. That makes it a very tricky deal.

 

[bucks_oil]

Fair points. Tkachuk is younger but Drai is a centre and a better player.

I mean obviously I wouldn’t want Huberdeau now but who could have predicted he would have the biggest point fall off in NHL history. He was a superstar in Florida. Had he picked up where he left off in Florida the Flames become pretty good.

That being said I’m not saying trade Drai for peanuts. If the Oilers aren’t offered a significant, significant package then I agree you hold onto him for a final cup run.

He’s signing soon though.

I mean if he refuses to sign and is transparent about his intent to leave, then of course you listen to offers... but it's not like Buffalo is going to offer Tage Thompson and Owen Power, or Boston is going to offer McAvoy++.

It's more likely that it's Owen Power and a prospect (at best) or Brandon Carlo and Poitras + 1st.

In both cases there is value there, but you are a indisputably a better team this year with Draisaitl and arguably better team next year spending $15M on Theodore + Verhaeghe or Koneckny.

I think saving $13M for Draisaitl is THE PLAN and the best back up plan (for THIS window) is to weaponize that $13M in free agency should he leave.

One problem you have is that Draisaitl's cap hit is only $8.5M this year which means that if you are going for established players you are very unlikely to get that home run return of multiple stars. You are going to have to accept some level of futures in such a trade. The best you might hope for is a guy in the $6M range and a guy on his ELC with great promise. Draisaitl would probably have a very small number if contenders he would accept a trade to. Unfortunately right now few contenders have $6M players who might possibly be available that are really all that impactful. That makes it a very tricky deal.

Very good point... huge timing mismatch in our available cap to even fit in a true hockey trade.

 

[Canovin]

I mean if he refuses to sign and is transparent about his intent to leave, then of course you listen to offers... but it's not like Buffalo is going to offer Tage Thompson and Owen Power, or Boston is going to offer McAvoy++.

It's more likely that it's Owen Power and a prospect (at best) or Brandon Carlo and Poitras + 1st.

In both cases there is value there, but you are a indisputably a better team this year with Draisaitl and arguably better team next year spending $15M on Theodore + Verhaeghe or Koneckny.

I think saving $13M for Draisaitl is THE PLAN and the best back up plan (for THIS window) is to weaponize that $13M in free agency should he leave.

Jackson could probably pry Cozens, Power and one of Kulich/Benson for Drai