Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Broberg Speed]

13.25 x 8 is the rumor coming from Bob

If that's the actual number from Leon's camp that's fantastic news... meaning he isn't saying I won't re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers and that negotiations are open.

 

[WaitingForUser]

If that's the actual number from Leon's camp that's fantastic news... meaning he isn't saying I won't re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers and that negotiations are open.

I look at it this way why wouldn’t re sign in Edmonton at that price? Let’s just say the unthinkable happens and we fall off a cliff after he signs he can easily just request a trade and with a full NMC can dictate where he goes.

 

[5 14 6 1]

I look at it this way why wouldn’t re sign in Edmonton at that price? Let’s just say the unthinkable happens and we fall off a cliff after he signs he can easily just request a trade and with a full NMC can dictate where he goes.

Yeah he'd be dumb to not take the 100m plus

 

[gotcha90]

I struggle to see how Drai gets more than Mac’s 12.6x8. Macs contract ends at age 35, Drai at 8 years would be age 37.

If I was signing Drai until age 35 the max I would do is 12.6 plus 10% for cap increase. That’s basically like saying age 30 - 35 Drai is equivalent to age 28 - 35 Mac, which is extremely favourable to Drai IMO. Total is roughly 83M or 13.9M per year.

Then tack on 2 years @ 8.5M for his age 36 and 37 seasons. You could maybe argue that Drai would get more if he was healthy but that’s a huge risk. First 6 years was a favour to Drai, back 2 years is returning the favour to the Oilers.

Total would be roughly 100M or 12.5Mx8.

 

[suddeninterest]

I think Drai is a player who can remain effective even at the end of his next contract if he stays healthy. He can play that cycle, pass, puck protection game and doesn’t need to rely on speed. Think guys like Bergeron, Crosby, Thornton, Jagr. All very effective in mid/late 30’s and I totally see Leon in that mold.

 

[WaitingForUser]

I think Drai is a player who can remain effective even at the end of his next contract if he stays healthy. He can play that cycle, pass, puck protection game and doesn’t need to rely on speed. Think guys like Bergeron, Crosby, Thornton, Jagr. All very effective in mid/late 30’s and I totally see Leon in that mold.

Leon’s best comparison for skill set has always been Big Joe. He slows down the game in a good way and I agree like Joe he will age well.

 

[VainGretzky]

13.25 x 8 is the rumor coming from Bob

Usually, the media gets that from agents and the contracts come in less , I still say it will be 12.5 x 8

 

[Spawn]

Leon’s best comparison for skill set has always been Big Joe. He slows down the game in a good way and I agree like Joe he will age well.

I think his best comparison coming out of the draft was Jumbo. I think he evolved more into a Malkin type player. Much more of a goal scorer than Joe Thornton.

That being said, Malkin is also a player who has aged incredibly well.

Draisaitl is also a very smart player with a true commitment to getting better and adjusting his style where necessary. Who would have thought when he came out of junior he'd have become as strong a skater as he became or as good of a goal scorer? He recognized that if he was going to be able to play with McDavid those were the two things he needed to work on and became elite in both of those areas. As he ages and starts to get a bit slower and such, I imagine he'll continue to adjust and work on his game so that he can continue to maximize his contributions on the ice.

That being said, even guys who age extremely well like Malkin and Thornton, those two were largely done being in the conversation as a ~top 5 player by the time they were in their early 30s. I don't doubt Draisaitl will remain effective late into his career. But it's unlikely that he'll be able to provide the kind of value later in his career that his contract dictates he should be providing. Although with the way the cap can increase that might be less of a concern.

Either way, thats not a reason not to sign the player. Just need to accept that he's probably not going to be a top ~5-10 player for the back half or 2/3rds of the deal.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I think his best comparison coming out of the draft was Jumbo. I think he evolved more into a Malkin type player. Much more of a goal scorer than Joe Thornton.

That being said, Malkin is also a player who has aged incredibly well.

Draisaitl is also a very smart player with a true commitment to getting better and adjusting his style where necessary. Who would have thought when he came out of junior he'd have become as strong a skater as he became or as good of a goal scorer? He recognized that if he was going to be able to play with McDavid those were the two things he needed to work on and became elite in both of those areas. As he ages and starts to get a bit slower and such, I imagine he'll continue to adjust and work on his game so that he can continue to maximize his contributions on the ice.

That being said, even guys who age extremely well like Malkin and Thornton, those two were largely done being in the conversation as a ~top 5 player by the time they were in their early 30s. I don't doubt Draisaitl will remain effective late into his career. But it's unlikely that he'll be able to provide the kind of value later in his career that his contract dictates he should be providing. Although with the way the cap can increase that might be less of a concern.

Either way, thats not a reason not to sign the player. Just need to accept that he's probably not going to be a top ~5-10 player for the back half or 2/3rds of the deal.

When Bedard UFA contract is coming it, there's a good chance it might be $18-20m a season.

So $13.25 won't be a backbreaker.

 

[Heavy Dee]

When Bedard UFA contract is coming it, there's a good chance it might be $18-20m a season.

So $13.25 won't be a backbreaker.

Bedard won't be near the elite level of McDavid. At least that is my prediction.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Bedard won't be near the elite level of McDavid. At least that is my prediction.

Neither are macKinnon or Matthews.

 

[McDoused]

Usually, the media gets that from agents and the contracts come in less , I still say it will be 12.5 x 8

Unless you're Darnell Nurse. Lol

Leon’s best comparison for skill set has always been Big Joe. He slows down the game in a good way and I agree like Joe he will age well.

I've always seen him as a better Anze Kopitar. Kopitar is putting up 70+ points at age 36, so I wouldn't be surprised if Leon does as well.

 

[The Nuge]

I struggle to see how Drai gets more than Mac’s 12.6x8. Macs contract ends at age 35, Drai at 8 years would be age 37.

If I was signing Drai until age 35 the max I would do is 12.6 plus 10% for cap increase. That’s basically like saying age 30 - 35 Drai is equivalent to age 28 - 35 Mac, which is extremely favourable to Drai IMO. Total is roughly 83M or 13.9M per year.

Then tack on 2 years @ 8.5M for his age 36 and 37 seasons. You could maybe argue that Drai would get more if he was healthy but that’s a huge risk. First 6 years was a favour to Drai, back 2 years is returning the favour to the Oilers.

Total would be roughly 100M or 12.5Mx8.

NHL points since 2018/19

McDavid - 726
Draisaitl - 643
MacKinnon - 596
Panarin - 548
Kucherov - 539
Pastrnak - 524
Matthews - 517

That alone puts Drai ahead of Mac. But the one that really screws us is Matthews getting 13.25. The only way Drai gets less than 13.5 is if he’s giving us a discount

 

[Stoneman89]

Neither are macKinnon or Matthews.

I think McKinnon is pretty close.

NHL points since 2018/19

McDavid - 726
Draisaitl - 643
MacKinnon - 596
Panarin - 548
Kucherov - 539
Pastrnak - 524
Matthews - 517

That alone puts Drai ahead of Mac. But the one that really screws us is Matthews getting 13.25. The only way Drai gets less than 13.5 is if he’s giving us a discount

Matthews is a bit of a unicorn though, as he is now considered the NHL's best pure scorer (playoff crap aside), and is getting paid for doing just that, and not much else.

 

[gotcha90]

NHL points since 2018/19

McDavid - 726
Draisaitl - 643
MacKinnon - 596
Panarin - 548
Kucherov - 539
Pastrnak - 524
Matthews - 517

That alone puts Drai ahead of Mac. But the one that really screws us is Matthews getting 13.25. The only way Drai gets less than 13.5 is if he’s giving us a discount.

Matthew’s is only on a 4 year deal. If Drai signs 4 years it will likely be more than Matthew’s as I indicated in my post.

On an 8 year deal that would be a massive overpay for Drai IMO. Way to risky to pay a 37-year old that kind of money.

 

[The Nuge]

I think McKinnon is pretty close.


Matthews is a bit of a unicorn though, as he is now considered the NHL's best pure scorer (playoff crap aside), and is getting paid for doing just that, and not much else.

Sure. But Drai is also nearly on par with Matthews in terms of goals in that time span (294 vs 272)

Matthew’s is only on a 4 year deal. If Drai signs 4 years it will likely be more than Matthew’s as I indicated in my post.

On an 8 year deal that would be a massive overpay for Drai IMO. Way to risky to pay a 37-year old that kind of money.

Matthews 4 year deal brings his AAV down, not up. If Toronto were to convince him to sign for 8 years, it’s probably closer to 15 that he’d be demanding

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Sure. But Drai is also nearly on par with Matthews in terms of goals in that time span (294 vs 272)



Matthews 4 year deal brings his AAV down, not up. If Toronto were to convince him to sign for 8 years, it’s probably closer to 15 that he’d be demanding

Matthews was younger when he signed his extension though. I think a longer term contract on an older player might bring the AAV down slightly (?)

Honestly it completely comes down to what Drai and his camp are willing to do - hard to speculate much based on comparables

 

[ManofSteel55]

Once again...Why does the PA care? The pot is fixed. Every dollar McDavid leaves on the table is split between all NHLPA members. Every extra dollar he takes comes out of everyone else' pocket.

Because inflation of the biggest salary leads to larger salaries for the other stars, and in theory, eventually for non-stars.

 

[McDoused]

Matthew’s is only on a 4 year deal. If Drai signs 4 years it will likely be more than Matthew’s as I indicated in my post.

On an 8 year deal that would be a massive overpay for Drai IMO. Way to risky to pay a 37-year old that kind of money.

That's just the way it goes with superstars. If the Oilers dont give them term, someone else will. We have another 5-6 years to try and win with McDavid and Draisaitl. After that the cap doesn't really matter as we will be rebuilding at that point anyways.

 

[Frank Drebin]

So let’s just imagine that drai doesn’t want to spend his entire career in this lovely city of ours.

Does that necessarily mean that he has to leave this year in a trade or next year as a UFA?

Why couldn’t there be an unwritten agreement that Drai signs an 8 year deal with Edmonton and stays until the job is done or he requests out?

Why is there always the implication that once the player signs the intention is to stay with that team the entire 8 years?

Just looking at it from an asset management and cup window standpoint if drai is looking at cali or manhattan or somewhere else

 

[Spawn]

Because inflation of the biggest salary leads to larger salaries for the other stars, and in theory, eventually for non-stars.

Not in a hard cap. The amount of money the players can earn is fixed and tied to league revenue. The elite stars in the league taking a larger slice of that money by necessity means that non-stars receive a lesser percentage.

The only thing that leads to larger salaries league wide is increased revenue league wide.

 

[Fourier]

Because inflation of the biggest salary leads to larger salaries for the other stars, and in theory, eventually for non-stars.

That theory is just not true. The reality is with a fixed pot higher salaries for the stars means less money for the non-stars. There is no way around that.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Because inflation of the biggest salary leads to larger salaries for the other stars, and in theory, eventually for non-stars.

Ask Broberg how much he's benefitting right now from Nurse's inflated salary

 

[Mr Positive]

Matthews was younger when he signed his extension though. I think a longer term contract on an older player might bring the AAV down slightly (?)

Honestly it completely comes down to what Drai and his camp are willing to do - hard to speculate much based on comparables

A longer deal is more of a favor to us. The decline in his play as he ages is more than covered by his decline percentage of the cap. We want 8 years. It isn't some sacrifice on our part. He's the one that might ask for less term

Imo a good standard is 13.25 x 8. The same as Matthews but with more years, which reflects that Matthews is a bit higher profile than him.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Because inflation of the biggest salary leads to larger salaries for the other stars, and in theory, eventually for non-stars.

This doesn’t make any sense.