Value of: Leon Draisaitl to your team

[Del Preston]

I’m legitimately dumber for having read this post. Guy actually - clumsily, like a baby deer walking on ice - tried to argue that Leon Draisaitl is a 40 point player.

No one has been wrong about Draisaitl more than that guy. He shows up in every thread about Leon and posts trash. Put him on ignore once he explain to everyone how 28 5-on-5 points + PP points (29) = 40.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

No one has been more wrong about Draisaitl than that guy. He shows up in every thread about Leon and posts trash. Put him on ignore once he explain to everyone how 28 5-on-5 points + PP points (29) = 40.

It's also exceptionally dishonest to list 5 on 5 points as opposed to even strength points. 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 points count just as much as 5 on 5 or powerplay points.

Whenever someone uses 5 on 5 points instead of even strength points I immediately think they have an agenda.

 

[viceroy]

If Gallagher and Drouin are the caliber of players Habs fans seem to think they are, I have little doubt that Draisaitl could be a 90 point player centring them. All that heart and soul Gallagher brings would elevate Draisaitl to SuperSaiyan levels and the pure talent oozing out of Drouin’s pores would allow Draisaitl to finally achieve Ubermensch.

For every “but McDavid” argument you have to remember there’s a counterargument that for the 40% or so of the time he’s not with McDavid, he was with the worst wingers the NHL had to offer. If you’re asking me, I honestly think not having Draisaitl on McDavid’s wing for the whole season cost Drai the Rocket and McDavid the Art Ross.

What the frakk? When did I or any other Habs fan claim Gallagher or Drouin's value or abilities were comparable to Leon Draisaitl or McDavid's? On the flipside no way no how would LD get anywhere near 90pts on the Habs. 60-70 pts at most on the Wing and probably even less as a Centre. No strike that, Claude Julien probably wouldn't let him play C over Danault or Domi. He's a stickler for sound defensive play.

In addition who gives a smeg about the Maurice Richard or the Art Ross if you keep getting kicked in the teeth all the time. Screw the Rocket, Ross, Lindsay, Norris or Vezina. All I want for the Habs is the only award that matters, the frigging Stanley Cup boyo. Individual awards are nice and shiny but they're dross compared to old Lord Stanley. Yeah the last few years have been tough as a Habs fan.

 

[joe dirte]

I’m legitimately dumber for having read this post. Guy actually - clumsily, like a baby deer walking on ice - tried to argue that Leon Draisaitl is a 40 point player.

I mean, it's simple math. the 800 minutes, which is a large sample size, that he played without McDavid, are projected into an entire season, that's what you get.

Do you have any hard evidence to the contrary?

 

[Del Preston]

It's also exceptionally dishonest to list 5 on 5 points as opposed to even strength points. 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 points count just as much as 5 on 5 or powerplay points.

Whenever someone uses 5 on 5 points instead of even strength points I immediately think they have an agenda.

Last summer he didn't understand there was a difference between ES and 5-on-5, and it looks like he still doesn't.

 

[joe dirte]

No one has been wrong about Draisaitl more than that guy. He shows up in every thread about Leon and posts trash. Put him on ignore once he explain to everyone how 28 5-on-5 points + PP points (29) = 40.

So how many of those were with McDavid?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

What the frakk? When did I or any other Habs fan claim Gallagher or Drouin's value or abilities were comparable to Leon Draisaitl or McDavid's? On the flipside no way no how would LD get anywhere near 90pts on the Habs. 60-70 pts at most on the Wing and probably even less as a Centre. No strike that, Claude Julien probably wouldn't let him play C over Danault or Domi. He's a stickler for sound defensive play.

In addition who gives a smeg about the Maurice Richard or the Art Ross if you keep getting kicked in the teeth all the time. Screw the Rocket, Ross, Lindsay, Norris or Vezina. All I want for the Habs is the only award that matters, the frigging Stanley Cup boyo. Individual awards are nice and shiny but they're dross compared to old Lord Stanley. Yeah the last few years have been tough as a Habs fan.

If Max Domi can get 70+ points on the Habs, I have absolutely zero doubt in my mind that Draisaitl could eclipse that without breaking a sweat. No disrespect to Domi but Draisaitl is far and away the better player.

Nobody is comparing Gallagher/Drouin to Drai/McDavid, but they'd likely be Draisaitl's wingers if he was a Hab, right?

If Julien wouldn't play him at C with all the wingers you have, then Julien is an idiot. Draisaitl's a strong faceoff man and sound defensively. The problem with he and McDavid is they switch off C responsibilites so much they can get crossed up with who's doing what.

 

[joe dirte]

It's also exceptionally dishonest to list 5 on 5 points as opposed to even strength points. 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 points count just as much as 5 on 5 or powerplay points.

Whenever someone uses 5 on 5 points instead of even strength points I immediately think they have an agenda.

dishonest? LOL. I just used 5v5. Go ahead and use ES points, I doubt it's much different given that the vast majority of that time will be 5v5.

5v5 is the default natural stat trick reverts to. no agenda whatsoever, other than laziness, and doubting it makes much difference. Would you prefer me post all ES situations?

You're really grasping at straws now.

 

[joe dirte]

No one has been wrong about Draisaitl more than that guy. He shows up in every thread about Leon and posts trash. Put him on ignore once he explain to everyone how 28 5-on-5 points + PP points (29) = 40.

by the way, if all you want is an echo chamber, maybe stick to the Oilers board, and you can all praise Draisaitl endlessly, without the opposing viewpoints that seem to get Oilers fans so sensitive and rattled.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I'm on my break now, so let me go ahead and help you here @joe dirte

Draisaitl played 805.37 minutes at 5 on 5 with McDavid, 500.25 without. Not 600. (according to your source, NaturalStatTrick)

In his 805.37 with McDavid, Draisaitl scored 21 goals and 24 assists for 45 points. We know Draisaitl scored 59 points at 5 on 5, Draisaitl actually only scored 14 points at 5 on 5 without McDavid. Ruh Roh!

Well, actually, because you didn't put the real data down, it's nowhere near as bad as you're making it out to be.

Because you screwed up the TOI without, everything else gets massively screwed up. I'll go ahead and fix it.

See, 14 5 on 5 points in 500 minutes of ice time equates to .028 points per minute. If we use your average of 1200 minutes, that actually leaves us with 34 5 on 5 points over the season - based only on your average, ignoring the fact that Draisaitl played more than that.

34 5 on 5 points + 29 powerplay points + 14 other situations points (tabulated as 73 even strength points - 59 5 on 5 points leaving us with what I'll call non 5 on 5 even strength points) +3 shorthanded points leaves us with *drumroll please*

an 80 point player.

An 80 point player that didn't score a single empty net goal all season long, and didn't see a single minute of 5 on 5 ice time with McDavid, and largely suited up with the likes of Lucic, Chiasson, Rieder, and Puljujarvi. It's even more fun if we use the actual 1305.62 he played instead of silly hypotheticals - .028 points per minute X 1305.62 = 36.55(37) 5 on 5 points, giving us an 83 point player.

By the way, what this little endeavour in fun math also proves is if Draisaitl had played every minute of 5 on 5 icetime with McDavid, he would have scored 67 5 on 5 points, which means using the same 1200 minute average you were using, Draisaitl would have scored 113 points. If we use the actual icetime he played at 5 on 5 (1305.62) and assume he played all of it with McDavid, he would have had 73 5 on 5 points, which means he would have scored 119 points.

So, what we've learned, is if Draisaitl played every second of his 1305.62 of 5 on 5 ice time with McDavid, he'd have been a 119 point player. If he didn't play with him at all, he'd be an 83 point player. Is there a McBump? Yes. Is Draisaitl still really good? Yes.

Congratulations, Joe. You've conclusively proved Leon Draisaitl is a f***ing awesome hockey player.

This has been your advanced stat corner with ChaoticOrange. Tip your servers, they work so hard.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He got 69 points last season?

Have you considered the date that post was made?

 

[joe dirte]

I'm on my break now, so let me go ahead and help you here @joe dirte

Draisaitl played 805.37 minutes at 5 on 5 with McDavid, 500.25 without. Not 600. (according to your source, NaturalStatTrick)

my mistake - I'm clearly not posting exact numbers, and mostly eyeballing.

In his 805.37 with McDavid, Draisaitl scored 21 goals and 24 assists for 45 points. We know Draisaitl scored 59 points at 5 on 5, Draisaitl actually only scored 14 points at 5 on 5 without McDavid. Ruh Roh!

I don't know what's "Ruh Roh" about that. I said he scored 14 points at 5v5 without McDavid. Right here:

Draisaitl played approximately 600 minutes of 5 on 5 hockey without McDavid this year, in which he scored 14 points. The average 1st line centre played between 1100 and 1300 minutes at 5 on 5. Take the average of 1200 minutes and it becomes simple. 28 points. Now add in your PP points, and you'll get in the 40 point region. So what I said checks out.

I'm on my break now, so let me go ahead and help you here @joe dirte

Because you screwed up the TOI without, everything else gets massively screwed up. I'll go ahead and fix it.

See, 14 5 on 5 points in 500 minutes of ice time equates to .028 points per minute. If we use your average of 1200 minutes, that actually leaves us with 34 5 on 5 points over the season - based only on your average, ignoring the fact that Draisaitl played more than that.

6 points is a massive change?

34 5 on 5 points + 29 powerplay points + 14 other situations points (tabulated as 73 even strength points - 59 5 on 5 points leaving us with what I'll call non 5 on 5 even strength points) +3 shorthanded points leaves us with *drumroll please*

an 80 point player.

An 80 point player that didn't score a single empty net goal all season long, and didn't see a single minute of 5 on 5 ice time with McDavid, and largely suited up with the likes of Lucic, Chiasson, Rieder, and Puljujarvi. It's even more fun if we use the actual 1305.62 he played instead of silly hypotheticals - .028 points per minute X 1305.62 = 36.55(37) 5 on 5 points, giving us an 83 point player.

By the way, what this little endeavour in fun math also proves is if Draisaitl had played every minute of 5 on 5 icetime with McDavid, he would have scored 67 5 on 5 points, which means using the same 1200 minute average you were using, Draisaitl would have scored 113 points. If we use the actual icetime he played at 5 on 5 (1305.62) and assume he played all of it with McDavid, he would have had 73 5 on 5 points, which means he would have scored 119 points.

So, what we've learned, is if Draisaitl played every second of his 1305.62 of 5 on 5 ice time with McDavid, he'd have been a 119 point player. If he didn't play with him at all, he'd be an 83 point player. Is there a McBump? Yes. Is Draisaitl still really good? Yes.

Congratulations, Joe. You've conclusively proved Leon Draisaitl is a ****ing awesome hockey player.

This has been your advanced stat corner with ChaoticOrange. Tip your servers, they work so hard.

Well now we can just toss the rest of this out, because you immediately reverted to using all his totals with McDavid in all the other on ice situations.

Why do you need to be so dishonest?

I think we all know why.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Makar doesn't come close to returning Draisaitl, you know that, as does everyone else. Hes very talented but nowhere near proven enough to have that kind of value.

You seem like a guy that would have been in favour of Edmonton trading Draisaitl for first overall last year. Why keep your young talent when you can get a mystery box?

Cale Makar isnt a mystery box. And he will be worth more than Draisaitl.


If anything Draisaitl on a different team and away from McDavid is the real mystery box. We know damn well he isn't a 50 Goal scorer or 100 point player if it weren't for McDavid. The question is whether he's a 60 point player or a PPG player

Either way I am not trading Makar for either version of him. Calling Makar a mystery box is just silly. Like calling Kakko or Hughes mystery boxes.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

my mistake - I'm clearly not posting exact numbers, and mostly eyeballing.




I don't know what's "Ruh Roh" about that. I said he scored 14 points at 5v5 without McDavid. Right here:






6 points is a massive change?



Well now we can just toss the rest of this out, because you immediately reverted to using all his totals with McDavid in all the other on ice situations.

Why do you need to be so dishonest?

I think we all know why.

You said "add in your powerplay points" so I did.

You said "go ahead and use ES points" so I did, and it's a 14 point swing.

You wanted an average of 1200 minutes used ignoring that Draisaitl played more than that, so I ran with it.

You didn't count shorthanded points, so I did.

Your only argument was 5 on 5 points with/without McDavid, which I ran with. You made no such provision with PP, 4 on 4, or 3 on 3.

It's simple math, buddy.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Cale Makar isnt a mystery box. And he will be worth more than Draisaitl.


If anything Draisaitl on a different team and away from McDavid is the real mystery box. We know damn well he isn't a 50 Goal scorer or 100 point player if it weren't for McDavid. The question is whether he's a 60 point player or a PPG player

Either way I am not trading Makar for either version of him. Calling Makar a mystery box is just silly. Like calling Kakko or Hughes mystery boxes.

...they ARE mystery boxes. Would you have traded Rantanen for them?

Slog through the math I posted above. Draisaitl is a damn good player, with or without McDavid.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Cale Makar isnt a mystery box. And he will be worth more than Draisaitl.


If anything Draisaitl on a different team and away from McDavid is the real mystery box. We know damn well he isn't a 50 Goal scorer or 100 point player if it weren't for McDavid. The question is whether he's a 60 point player or a PPG player

Either way I am not trading Makar for either version of him. Calling Makar a mystery box is just silly. Like calling Kakko or Hughes mystery boxes.

Makar has yet to prove anything.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

You said "add in your powerplay points" so I did.

You said "go ahead and use ES points" so I did, and it's a 14 point swing.

You wanted an average of 1200 minutes used ignoring that Draisaitl played more than that, so I ran with it.

You didn't count shorthanded points, so I did.

Your only argument was 5 on 5 points with/without McDavid, which I ran with. You made no such provision with PP, 4 on 4, or 3 on 3.

It's simple math, buddy.

I’d be upset too if my 11.6m player heading straight to free agency was constantly getting outscored every year.

 

[joe dirte]

You said "add in your powerplay points" so I did.

You said "go ahead and use ES points" so I did, and it's a 14 point swing.

You wanted an average of 1200 minutes used ignoring that Draisaitl played more than that, so I ran with it.

You didn't count shorthanded points, so I did.

Your only argument was 5 on 5 points with/without McDavid, which I ran with. You made no such provision with PP, 4 on 4, or 3 on 3.

It's simple math, buddy.

Yeah, add in PP points. We dont really know what theyd be without mcdavid because we dont have enough of a sample size. Not surprisingly you jump to the numbers with mcdavid though!

We could use the ratio of points he scores with and without per 60, and it would be well under 10 PP points i bet. But i just kindly assumed theyd be average first line production without mcdavid (17 or 18 maybe). Most evidence says they would be lower.

The context was to take the production without mcdavid and then add in better wingers.

You immediately went and stated all his production WITH mcdavid, other than the one situation specified otherwise.

Very dishonest and transparent to everyone here.

 

[Ragdoll]

Not trading Domi for a Wing and a bust.



How many goals pts do you think he gets on the Habs? How many? How many on the Sens? Columbus? How many without an A++ grade Centre feeding him? He is NOT a 50 goal 105 pt player or else why can't Patrick Maroon score 27 goals away from McDavid?

Are you really comparing Draisitl to Patrick f***ing Maroon..? That’s not a good basis for an argument LOL.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Yeah, add in PP points. We dont really know what theyd be without mcdavid because we dont have enough of a sample size. Not surprisingly you jump to the numbers with mcdavid though!

We could use the ratio of points he scores with and without per 60, and it would be well under 10 i bet. But i just kindly assumed theyd be average first line production without mcdavid (17 or 18 maybe). Moat evidence says they would be lower.

The context was to take the production without mcdavid and then add in better wingers.

You immediately went and stated all his production WITH mcdavid, other than the one situation specified otherwise.

Very dishonest and transparent to everyone here.

So we're pretending McDavid was whisked away into the netherworld and doesn't exist in any situation? After you based your whole argument on 5 on 5 production?

Yeah, that's a nice goalpost shuffle now that you've been dunked on.

 

[malton]

Would probably hang onto Drai.

 

[joe dirte]

So we're pretending McDavid was whisked away into the netherworld and doesn't exist in any situation?

Yeah, that's a nice goalpost shuffle now that you've been dunked on.

Pardon? The whole idea was in regards to Draisaitl on another team, i.e. traded away.

so yes, this is about what Draisaitl does without McDavid. And it's really ugly.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Pardon? The whole idea was in regards to Draisaitl on another team, i.e. traded away.

so yes, this is about what Draisaitl does without McDavid. And it's really ugly.

You have a funny definition of ugly and are doing a fine Trump channel of calling anything that flies contrary to what you believe fake news.

You really think it's suitable to compare what Draisaitl did without McDavid and not at least consider on another team he'd have actual top line wingers to play with as opposed to Lucic and the like? He wouldn't go from McDavid to *nobody*. He'd go from McDavid to other top players, because he is a top player, and on most other teams he'd have much better options to play with.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Also fun:

McDavid, if he'd played every minute at 5 on 5 with Draisaitl: 131 points
McDavid, if he'd played every minute at 5 on 5 without Draisaitl: 94 points

 

[OiledGun]

Pardon? The whole idea was in regards to Draisaitl on another team, i.e. traded away.

so yes, this is about what Draisaitl does without McDavid. And it's really ugly.

Why would we assume his powerplay points would drop so much? It's not like the Oilers were a top 5 power play team. Are we assuming that he's going to a bottom 5 team? That he isn't going to be one of the best players on the power play? This is disingenuous and just trying to push your narrative.