If they get shovels in the ground asap it could happen. Didnt the arena in Dallas only take 3 years to build?
The construction timelines have nothing to do with it.
Andlauer said it himself he doesn't want an arena standing on its own, and that makes perfect sense. So before he is putting any shovel in the ground, the NCC and the City not only need to figure out exactly how the arena fits into the big picture, they have to first dot the I's and cross the T's on the big picture itself. And agree on it in the form of rezoning. That can be a slow undertaking when you're considering the massive potential, scale and value of Lebreton.
Then they need to make a handful of complicated land deals with a multitude of developers and then those developers need to go through the design process and get permits. All the while they need to make sure there isn't a domino effect started by the NCC, the City, the developers or the Sens that derails everything.
No way Andlauer puts a shovel in the ground until he is absolutely certain that the rest of Lebreton isn't going to sit vacant for X number of years after puck drop. He said it himself.
Best we can hope for is that the NCC takes on site remediation and they show good faith by starting that right away. Then at least the hole gets dug, timelines speed up by a few months and you get a meaningful commitment from the biggest stakeholder.
Andlauer should use this to gauge how serious the NCC is about a partnership. If I'm the Sens I'm saying to them "you dig the hole, I'll buy the land at 'fair market value.' Now get to work or we'll start looking elsewhere."
At the end of the day the Sens unfortunately do not have the option to rush into this. They'll be at the mercy of others for a couple years at least.