Post-Game Talk: Leafs win 5-3 against the Stars

[Dough72]

pretty sure xgf% is the stat that records a "dangerous scoring chance" based on nothing more than where a shot was taken from on the ice. The problems with that should be obvious.

 

[Schennanigans]

Woll was huge to get that w as was the 3rd line. I like that third line a lot. I hope it sticks and keeps playing well. Lately we seem to be getting badly outplayed but still winning.

 

[DarkKnight]

Reavo or Holmberg, who cares? At least Reaves brings some jam and some hitting. If you put Holmberg on that 4th line, it will be a line that does a whole lot of nothing. Reaves brings something to the 4th line. It will not score either way, but at least Reaves hits people.

And with Kampf back you don't need Holmberg to suck on the PK anymore.

 

[ACC1224]

Reavo or Holmberg, who cares? At least Reaves brings some jam and some hitting. If you put Holmberg on that 4th line, it will be a line that does a whole lot of nothing. Reaves brings something to the 4th line. It will not score either way, but at least Reaves hits people.

One thing for certain, the opposition knows when he's on the ice.

 

[Suntouchable13]

One thing for certain, the opposition knows when he's on the ice.

Reaves has a place on this roster. Sure, they can scratch him some games and rotate Holmberg/Dewar in but there is no question Reaves is fine on the 4th line when you need some physicality or intimidation.

 

[ACC1224]

Reaves has a place on this roster. Sure, they can scratch him some games and rotate Holmberg/Dewar in but there is no question Reaves is fine on the 4th line when you need some physicality or intimidation.

May be my imagination but he doesn't seem like he's taken many minor penalties this year.

 

[DarkKnight]

One thing for certain, the opposition knows when he's on the ice.

6 hits last night and was quite effective. I'd have Dewar in there though.

 

[Dekes For Days]

pretty sure xgf% is the stat that records a "dangerous scoring chance" based on nothing more than where a shot was taken from on the ice.

Shot location/distance is pretty important, but that's not true.

 

[Zybalto]

pretty sure xgf% is the stat that records a "dangerous scoring chance" based on nothing more than where a shot was taken from on the ice. The problems with that should be obvious.

It should never be taken as gospel of course and is much better in bigger samples. Injuries, roster turnover, etc, all come into play when looking at this season.

Over a long enough time, shot differential matches up with it quite closely.

 

[Dekes For Days]

One thing for certain, the opposition knows when he's on the ice.

I'm sure they do. Teams need to know when they have a man advantage for the next 40 seconds.

 

[ACC1224]

I'm sure they do. Teams need to know when they have a man advantage for the next 40 seconds.

Further proof you've never actually been on the ice.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Further proof you've never actually been on the ice.

I've been on the ice plenty. Being on the ice doesn't change that Reaves sucks.

 

[ToDavid]

pretty sure xgf% is the stat that records a "dangerous scoring chance" based on nothing more than where a shot was taken from on the ice. The problems with that should be obvious.

This feels like a weird game thread to post this in because I'm not sure how you could watch last nights game (or several of their games over the last stretch) and come to the conclusion that xGF% is lying to you because actually the skaters played well.

Every stat has limits, and people should understand them when they're using those stats, but that doesn't mean throwing them in the garbage wholesale.

 

[ACC1224]

I've been on the ice plenty. Being on the ice doesn't change that Reaves sucks.

Nope or you wouldn't have said what you did.
Players are 100% aware when he's out there, naive and inexperienced to think otherwise.

 

[weems]

For any of the people good with advanced stats, how much does shot distance correlate with shooting percentages?

 

[budzz]

Nope or you wouldn't have said what you did.
Players are 100% aware when he's out there, naive and inexperienced to think otherwise.

Agreed. He hits like a mack truck. That wears down d over time. If getting hit all night long slows a d-man down even a fraction of a second later in the game, it could make the difference between a w or an L. It's not like he's purely a knuckle dragging thug either, he brings good energy and that line usually seems to hold it's own.

 

[ACC1224]

Agreed. He hits like a mack truck. That wears down d over time. If getting hit all night long slows a d-man down even a fraction of a second later in the game, it could make the difference between a w or an L. It's not like he's purely a knuckle dragging thug either, he brings good energy and that line usually seems to hold it's own.

Not much of a player but when he hits you, you feel it. Players like that you have to keep your head up around and take note where they are on the ice.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Nope or you wouldn't have said what you did. Players are 100% aware when he's out there, naive and inexperienced to think otherwise.

Having played doesn't change facts from being true. These Reaves fairy tales are what's "naive and inexperienced".
I agree that players are aware when he's out there. Good chance for them to score. I always loved facing off against those kind of guys.

 

[Zybalto]

Reaves 5v5 this season:
Shot differential: 44.74
xGF%: 39.80
Goal differential: 32.65

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

This team has depended way too much on goaltending this season. It feels good to beat other teams for once because of goalies but something feels really flawed about this lineup. I bet they'd be a bubble team or worse right now without the goalies. I hope Murray never sees the net BTW and that Woll can carry the load until Stolarz is back (has to be groin right? Worst case scenario for a goaltender IMO).

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'm sure they do. Teams need to know when they have a man advantage for the next 40 seconds.

They will know that if they take penalties.

 

[Sypher04]

This team has depended way too much on goaltending this season. It feels good to beat other teams for once because of goalies but something feels really flawed about this lineup. I bet they'd be a bubble team or worse right now without the goalies. I hope Murray never sees the net BTW and that Woll can carry the load until Stolarz is back (has to be groin right? Worst case scenario for a goaltender IMO).

The goalies have been very good, but I don’t think it’s been all about them. We have generally been doing a lot of things to help them out. There have definitely been stolen games though

I don’t think they are overly flawed - or at least not really much moreso than other teams we aren’t sitting dissecting everyday

 

[Warden of the North]

Stars allowed 5 goals.

Tell me again why they deserved this win more?

 

[Sypher04]

The divisions top end quality has gotten a bit worse. It always produced a top 3 team in the league, and for a lot of the Matthews tenure, it had the presidents trophy winner. Boston 2x, tampa, florida off the top off my head have all won it once in the Matthews era

The parity is still only top end, as anyone under Ottawa yet again is awful but I guess Ottawa has taken a step forward.

Boston and florida have both regressed from the past 5 seasons and it’s showing in the standings.

Yup, I largely agree there.

I just disagree with anyone using that to conclude the division is now weak.

The Atlantic has pretty much inarguably been the best division in hockey for a while.
- 3 of the last 4 Presidents Trophies
- 3 of the last 5 cup winners
- an Atlantic division team has made the SCF 6 straight years

Our division appears to have taken a step back but that has made it more average than weak.

 

[BTP]

Missed the last few games , how has Robertson been?