Post-Game Talk: Leafs win 5-3 against the Stars

[All Mod Cons]

Top 5 forwards for 5v5 xGF% from the game:

1. Reaves
2. Matthews
3. Knies
4. Marner
5. Nylander

Top Leafs line (by a mile):

Marner-Matthews-Nylander

I love it when the fancy stats dont match what most people saw lol.

Look fine with me. Seeing Reavo at the top makes sense. That's why i love fancy stats and put a lot of stock into them.

 

[leafs in five]

HFLeafs reconciliation will be achieved by this group of detestable babies playing Randy Carlyle hockey to a first place finish and deep playoff run

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

In any one game that would be true, however they haven’t been playing well lately and have been bailed out by goaltending all season. Goaltenders are a part of the team so there’s no shame in that, but if you look at the Bruins the two season prior to this, relying on them is not the ideal recipe.

They're doing a lot better than I thought they would.

Which is also a lot better than they were doing last year at this point. They're clearly gonna make the playoffs again. Who they face, and what happens when they get there, is all that's left to he answered now.

I don't care where they end up in the standings if they can't win anything in the playoffs.

 

[DarkKnight]

Top 5 forwards for 5v5 xGF% from the game:

1. Reaves
2. Matthews
3. Knies
4. Marner
5. Nylander

Top Leafs line (by a mile):

Marner-Matthews-Nylander

I love it when the fancy stats dont match what most people saw lol.

Interesting that nobody on third line there, literally ever one represented but the best. Weird.

 

[Smif]

Interesting.

Leafs are down .7 GPG this season.

Matthews is down .6 GPG this season.

What's his shooting percentage this year compared to his career?

 

[weems]

What's his shooting percentage this year compared to his career?

 

[Jojalu]

What's his shooting percentage this year compared to his career?

10% this year. I6 for career. Seems like it should be just a matter of time

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Top 5 forwards for 5v5 xGF% from the game:

1. Reaves
2. Matthews
3. Knies
4. Marner
5. Nylander

Top Leafs line (by a mile):

Marner-Matthews-Nylander

I love it when the fancy stats dont match what most people saw lol.

This is hilarious. Reaves on top of an offensive stat? Either the stat is useless, the eyetest is useless, it's an aberration, or Reaves is a star and we all don't know it. If this is true, I vote the stat is useless.

 

[Budz]

I thought Matthews played well

Tell us why?
I saw something slightly different.

 

[GoonieFace]

This is hilarious. Reaves on top of an offensive stat? Either the stat is useless, the eyetest is useless, it's an aberration, or Reaves is a star and we all don't know it. If this is true, I vote the stat is useless.

Advanced stats for hockey are sketchy at best. This is just clear proof of that.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

This is hilarious. Reaves on top of an offensive stat? Either the stat is useless, the eyetest is useless, it's an aberration, or Reaves is a star and we all don't know it. If this is true, I vote the stat is useless.

Considering his two linemates were at the very bottom of the list I'd say there was something weird going on with how these stats were being calculated.

 

[Fogelhund]

This is hilarious. Reaves on top of an offensive stat? Either the stat is useless, the eyetest is useless, it's an aberration, or Reaves is a star and we all don't know it. If this is true, I vote the stat is useless.

Or it's one game, and we don't read too much into it.

Reaves was on ice for 9 shots attempts for, and 7 shot attempts against. If you are on ice, for more net shot attempts for, than anyone else, you kind of would expect your xGoals % to be higher than anyone else... that's just reality... what xGoals% doesn't take into consideration, is the quality of the player taking those shots. (5v5)

This doesn't make him a star, or even a good hockey player... it just means, last night, while he was on the ice, we directed more pucks on the opposition goalie, than were directed at ours... and the expectation, is we are more likely to score more goals than the opposition, when we do so.

This doesn't mean that stats are useless, it just means people don't understand them, or use them in the proper context.

Considering his two linemates were at the very bottom of the list I'd say there was something weird going on with how these stats were being calculated.

No... it means you made assumptions that aren't based on anything at all. Look at the actual stats, it makes sense. Noting... he didn't play exclusively with Lorentz and Kampf.

 

[Stephen]

McCabe has been awesome this season and our best defencemen.

McCabe used to have a bit of a reputation for making some low IQ brain fart plays in Buffalo but he’s just been dialled in as a Leaf. So good and brings that alpha control tower aspect to the blueline. The ice mic picked up McCabe behind the net telling Domi or someone to “stay there” on the half wall before confidently skating up himself. Beast.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I was just on NHL.com, and when Dallas scored it was Dallas crew, and when Leafs scored it was the Leafs crew.
Or do you mean YouTube will have those highlights, from home crew?

Yep YouTube will have them on the main NHL channel.

Here's last night with the Stars crew. It's always either the local home team broadcast or national (ESPN, Prime)

 

[Dekes For Days]

This is hilarious. Reaves on top of an offensive stat? Either the stat is useless, the eyetest is useless, it's an aberration, or Reaves is a star and we all don't know it. If this is true, I vote the stat is useless.

xGF% isn't an offensive stat. It's a combination of offensive and defensive shot/chance generation and prevention while you are on the ice, and while it is very useful in combination with context, other statistics, and in bigger samples, you can't just take isolated single game outcomes and make broad proclamations about individuals.

Not only is Reaves so bad that he regularly underperforms his expected goals, Reaves has the worst 5v5 xGF% of any regular Leaf this season. And to be clear, the 4th line got caved in last game. That line had a 16.2 xGF%. Reaves got boosted up to 53% in this game because Matthews and Tavares each generated a good chance during line changes, and he happened to be on the ice.

 

[grapes55]

Looking at some of the advanced stats and the one that jumps out is High danger goals for %.

We rank #1 in the NHL in this statistic 5v5.

We've scored 38 and only given up 23 against.

View attachment 948057

This is interesting considering Leafs are middle of the pack in terms of overall expected goal share. Probably an indication that we're sacrificing quantity for quality chances which is a good sign

 

[ULF_55]

Yep YouTube will have them on the main NHL channel.

Here's last night with the Stars crew. It's always either the local home team broadcast or national (ESPN, Prime)

Not a bad crew.

About a decade ago on Center Ice, I found there were some very good even (not completely biased reporting) American announcers. They'd never be hired by the Bruins ... and they made the game enjoyable for everyone.

I started listening / watching with the Hewitt family as announcers ...

 

[DarkKnight]

This is hilarious. Reaves on top of an offensive stat? Either the stat is useless, the eyetest is useless, it's an aberration, or Reaves is a star and we all don't know it. If this is true, I vote the stat is useless.

It's a cautionary tale on why advanced stats are only part of the story.

Tell us why?
I saw something slightly different.

The coach didn't think he did either. They picked it up as the game went on, but he was a passenger most of the night on that line.

 

[Budz]

It's a cautionary tale on why advanced stats are only part of the story.


The coach didn't think he did either. They picked it up as the game went on, but he was a passenger most of the night on that line.

Agreed. He had a couple of nice plays, but for the most part was not sharp or detailed in his game.

 

[Leafsfan74]

What's his shooting percentage this year compared to his career?

Yeah, he is missing his shot, that's the difference. I know the team doesn't want to get specific but I fear its his wrist. His shot was worth millions alone.

If I am him, no more video games, no more heavy use of his wrist even if it feels good. Get blood flow to the area (sometimes a brace slows down any healing). I'm sure he is getting the best advice possible of course, but something has been off from him and I suspect it's his shot though it could be his back or anything really, I know nothing at all, just theorizing.

He relies more on his slapshot now, which is also a good shot, but it's not his snapshot which was in a legendary class on its own. Speed and knuckleball action which tricked every goalie.

 

[Aashir]

This idea the Atlantic is bad is not reality. At least, not really any more so than most, if not all, the other divisions.

The Atlantic has 3 of the top 10 teams in the NHL and every division has weak teams.

The only thing that’s changed really is that Boston has slipped a bit this year (so far) while Ottawa has improved. There is more parity among the top 3 Atlantic teams than we’ve seen in a while but that doesn’t make the division bad. The bad teams remain bad but that’s been the case for years.

The divisions top end quality has gotten a bit worse. It always produced a top 3 team in the league, and for a lot of the Matthews tenure, it had the presidents trophy winner. Boston 2x, tampa, florida off the top off my head have all won it once in the Matthews era

The parity is still only top end, as anyone under Ottawa yet again is awful but I guess Ottawa has taken a step forward.

Boston and florida have both regressed from the past 5 seasons and it’s showing in the standings.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This idea the Atlantic is bad is not reality. At least, not really any more so than most, if not all, the other divisions.

The Atlantic has 3 of the top 10 teams in the NHL and every division has weak teams.

The only thing that’s changed really is that Boston has slipped a bit this year (so far) while Ottawa has improved. There is more parity among the top 3 Atlantic teams than we’ve seen in a while but that doesn’t make the division bad. The bad teams remain bad but that’s been the case for years.

But Ottawa was one of the bad teams, are they still bad? doesn't look like it but I'm not willing to say know just yet.

 

[Fogelhund]

Yeah, he is missing his shot, that's the difference. I know the team doesn't want to get specific but I fear its his wrist. His shot was worth millions alone.

If I am him, no more video games, no more heavy use of his wrist even if it feels good. Get blood flow to the area (sometimes a brace slows down any healing). I'm sure he is getting the best advice possible of course, but something has been off from him and I suspect it's his shot though it could be his back or anything really, I know nothing at all, just theorizing.

He relies more on his slapshot now, which is also a good shot, but it's not his snapshot which was in a legendary class on its own. Speed and knuckleball action which tricked every goalie.

I personally think it's his back... but who knows. If it were his wrist, he would have been able to skate during his time off.... he didn't.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The coach didn't think he did either. They picked it up as the game went on, but he was a passenger most of the night on that line.

Yeah, I though they had a really rough first period, but part of that may have been Nylander getting used to his off wing. Second period on he was the best player on that line.

I noticed that on his first goal he was going down the right side.

Good luck trying to catch Willy when he smells a breakaway. (I wonder if the slash or the hook get called if he doesn't score?)

 

[Suntouchable13]

Reavo or Holmberg, who cares? At least Reaves brings some jam and some hitting. If you put Holmberg on that 4th line, it will be a line that does a whole lot of nothing. Reaves brings something to the 4th line. It will not score either way, but at least Reaves hits people.