Confirmed with Link: LEAFS WIN #1 PICK IN 2026 NHL DRAFT

[Peasy]

Check the 2017, 2018, and 2020 drafts for me.


Even in 2016, with Sergachev and Chychrun, if you want


Dmen take longer.

Thank you for saying exactly what I am saying... The d in this draft are not going to be top pairing guys in 3 years.

So other than Schaefer, you need to go back 6 years to find a current top pair d man that was taken in the top 10.

 

[Buckley]

That's an odd proclamation to make considering they were a cap team for the majority of their competitive window during the Thornton era.

They have been a tight-spending team since 2019. I don't think that is going to change. I am sure they will resign their own guys for now, but I don't think we are going to see them spend $100 million year over year.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Thank you for saying exactly what I am saying... The d in this draft are not going to be top pairing guy in 3 year.

Not sure, but it's probably a safer prediction, I see two of them being impact D the season after next and possibly Smits as early as next year.

 

[TMLegend]

Yep, all 3 of those guys are going to hit their max potential for sure

View attachment 1258588

Are any of these D top pairing d men going into next season?

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Or these ones?

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What about these guys? I can keep going.

They can trade some of their youth for defensemen, or at least that was the prevailing thought around here when the Leafs were stockpiling forwards during their last rebuild and same concerns were raised.

 

[hamzarocks]

Yep, all 3 of those guys are going to hit their max potential for sure

View attachment 1258588

Are any of these D top pairing d men going into next season?

View attachment 1258590

Or these ones?

View attachment 1258591

What about these guys? I can keep going.

If you believe these 3 are comparable to those dman and in the same situation (earlier stages of their rebuild) then yeah by their 3rd year being a top pairing dman may be difficult.

However if you believe they are higher upside #1D prospects and SJS is a string team that has ton of opportunity ajd offensive support to work for then comparable guys who became top pairing dman by or before their D+3 years include

Seider - 2019 6th OA pick, top pairing guy by 2022

Ekblad - 2014 1st OA - top pairing guy by 2015

Charlie McAvoy - 2016 14th OA - top pairing dman by 2019

Mikhail Sergachev - 2016 9th OA - top 4D by 2018, but took longer to be given top pairing spot due to Tampa having deep dcore.

Luke Hughes - 2021 4th OA - top pairing guy by 2024

Simon Edvinsson - 2021 6th OA - top pairing dman by 2025 (4th year)

Seth Jones - 2013 4th OA - top pairing dman by 2017 (held back due to being on elite preds team with Weber, Ellis, Ekholm, and Josi)

Cal Makar - 2017 4th OA - top pairing dman by 2020.
Miro Heiskanen - 2017 3rd OA - top pairing dman by 2020.

Quinn Hughes - 2018 7th OA - top pairing dman by 2020

Jake Sanderson - 2020 5th OA - top pairing dman by 2024 (4th season)

Werenski - 2015 8th OA - top pairing dman by 2018.

The last few drafts havent had good development for top tier d prospects. But from 2015 - 2021 you were usually getting that sort of player taking the first or 2nd dman off the board.

I am definately not dealing 2nd OA if Im the Sharks. Take Reid or Smits or Carels and you likely have a top pairing dman by their 3rd year or 4th year at the latest.

 

[Tak7]

Celebrini is the only reason I would trade situations. Remove him and im not even thinking about it.

Still have shit D. Dickinson is fine, but I dont see him becoming a top 15 D man. Never been a fan of Askarov and he showed last year hes not anywhere close to being a great goalie in the NHL.

Ironically their set up and situation looks extremely similar to the Leafs of 10 years ago.

Lol - "if you remove the biggest piece of the comparison, I don't like the comparison".

Uh, yeah, but he's part of it.

And so are Misa and Smith and potentially Stenberg and whatever they do with 9OA, and Askarov etc.

Their situation absolutely looks like the Leafs situation from 10 years ago - which is why I want it. I refuse to believe the Leafs would f*** it up all over again

 

[Tak7]

Unfortunately for Sharks fans, I think they are going to find that their roster is ultimately submarined by the fact that the team won't commit to spending what is necessary to win.

Possible - but how their ownership spends / doesn't spend, doesn't really enter the equation when comparing where the 2 franchises are at.

 

[Peasy]

If you believe these 3 are comparable to those dman and in the same situation (earlier stages of their rebuild) then yeah by their 3rd year being a top pairing dman may be difficult.

However if you believe they are higher upside #1D prospects and SJS is a string team that has ton of opportunity ajd offensive support to work for then comparable guys who became top pairing dman by or before their D+3 years include

Seider - 2019 6th OA pick, top pairing guy by 2022

Ekblad - 2014 1st OA - top pairing guy by 2015

Charlie McAvoy - 2016 14th OA - top pairing dman by 2019

Mikhail Sergachev - 2016 9th OA - top 4D by 2018, but took longer to be given top pairing spot due to Tampa having deep dcore.

Luke Hughes - 2021 4th OA - top pairing guy by 2024

Simon Edvinsson - 2021 6th OA - top pairing dman by 2025 (4th year)

Seth Jones - 2013 4th OA - top pairing dman by 2017 (held back due to being on elite preds team with Weber, Ellis, Ekholm, and Josi)

Cal Makar - 2017 4th OA - top pairing dman by 2020.
Miro Heiskanen - 2017 3rd OA - top pairing dman by 2020.

Quinn Hughes - 2018 7th OA - top pairing dman by 2020

Jake Sanderson - 2020 5th OA - top pairing dman by 2024 (4th season)

Werenski - 2015 8th OA - top pairing dman by 2018.

The last few drafts havent had good development for top tier d prospects. But from 2015 - 2021 you were usually getting that sort of player taking the first or 2nd dman off the board.

I am definately not dealing 2nd OA if Im the Sharks. Take Reid or Smits or Carels and you likely have a top pairing dman by their 3rd year or 4th year at the latest.

Luke Hughes is not a top pairing d man.

Sharks are not taking a d man at 2 lmao. Again, even after looking at the drafts you are still certain those 3 will be top pairing d men... Guess its shaping up to be one of the best top 10s ever.

 

[Peasy]

Lol - "if you remove the biggest piece of the comparison, I don't like the comparison".

Uh, yeah, but he's part of it.

And so are Misa and Smith and potentially Stenberg and whatever they do with 9OA, and Askarov etc.

Their situation absolutely looks like the Leafs situation from 10 years ago - which is why I want it. I refuse to believe the Leafs would f*** it up all over again

I'm just sayin Celebrini is so valuable, nothing else really matters. Hes doin a lot of heavy lifting for that club. Its not likely people would want to swap with the Hawks situation, but if they had Celebrini instead of Bedard everyone would. You can go 100 years without ever having a talent like Celebrini being part of your org.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Someone posted a scenario of Reid at 2 and either Bjorck or at 9…which isn’t bad either and addresses need. I think it’s Stenberg. But…

If it is that coveted RHD Reid at 2, and Malhotra goes three, then holy moly…Stenberg at 4…to Buffalo? Makes me wonder if Jarmo knows something…apart from recovering from the shock of 4,45 and Crevier for Byram, lol

I would be shocked if San Jose passes on Stenberg. Scary thinking about him and Celebrini playing together in a few years lol. I don’t think Chicago trades their pick unless they felt there was a zero chance for him to fall to 4

 

[Tak7]

I'm just sayin Celebrini is so valuable, nothing else really matters. Hes doin a lot of heavy lifting for that club. Its not likely people would want to swap with the Hawks situation, but if they had Celebrini instead of Bedard everyone would. You can go 100 years without ever having a talent like Celebrini being part of your org.

If you swapped Celebrini with Bedard, I'd still take the Sharks setup over the Hawks setup.

 

[hamzarocks]

Luke Hughes is not a top pairing d man.

Sharks are not taking a d man at 2 lmao. Again, even after looking at the drafts you are still certain those 3 will be top pairing d men... Guess its shaping up to be one of the best top 10s ever.

I never said Im certain all 3 with be top pairing dmen, I said its likely and those are prospects the leafs never had in our system.

Expecting all 3 of them to bust is pretty crazy. Those 3 + Mckenna & Stenberg are the top 5 prospects in the draft for me.

The sharks have no reason to rush things. They can likely be a playoff team while letting the 2nd OA + 9th OA team develope next year and then develop 1 of those 3 into a top pairing dman (not a norris winner but a top 50D league wide).

 

[kb]

I never said Im certain all 3 with be top pairing dmen, I said its likely and those are prospects the leafs never had in our system.

Expecting all 3 of them to bust is pretty crazy. Those 3 + Mckenna & Stenberg are the top 5 prospects in the draft for me.

The sharks have no reason to rush things. They can likely be a playoff team while letting the 2nd OA + 9th OA team develope next year and then develop 1 of those 3 into a top pairing dman (not a norris winner but a top 50D league wide).

This is exactly what I have said all along that is completely wrong.

Every lottery ticket is a jackpot winner to the ones who believe that picks/prospects >> even star NHL players.

 

[ITM]

I would be shocked if San Jose passes on Stenberg. Scary thinking about him and Celebrini playing together in a few years lol. I don’t think Chicago trades their pick unless they felt there was a zero chance for him to fall to 4

But in targeting Byram, perhaps their target was Reid and that’s who they think isn’t going to be available?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Lol - "if you remove the biggest piece of the comparison, I don't like the comparison".

Uh, yeah, but he's part of it.

And so are Misa and Smith and potentially Stenberg and whatever they do with 9OA, and Askarov etc.

Their situation absolutely looks like the Leafs situation from 10 years ago - which is why I want it. I refuse to believe the Leafs would f*** it up all over again

That's the dream situation IMHO. No guarantee we wouldn't f*** it up again but is has a better chance of succeeding than anything else. And that's why my biggest hope right now is that we don't sacrifice the future to win now so that McKenna has lots of help when he hits his prime.

 

[hamzarocks]

This is exactly what I have said all along that is completely wrong.

Every lottery ticket is a jackpot winner to the ones who believe that picks/prospects >> even star NHL players.

There is a difference between NHL stars and Byram who hasnt shown enough and is already 26 with injury issues.

If we dont care about NHL prospects then we would be trading Mckenna (1st OA) right away for a proven NHL star player like Kempe.

Realistically, getting high end/elite star core pieces happens through the draft. The sharks have gotten their elite pieces at forward already.

They either need to keep #2 & 9 and get elite high probably star dman prospects or if they are dealing them, then they need high end star NHLers coming back

9th + 27th for Hronek
2nd OA + Will Smith for Seider

Those type of moves I could see being worth it as it revamps their dcore and gives them an elite franchise dman + a strong top pairing on in his prime.

Using the 2nd OA on Stenberg or dealing the 2nd OA for an older soon to decline top pairing guy (Gavirkov for example) would be foolish and hurt their rebuild

 

[BoBfromAulon]

I'd take the Sharks current roster, prospects, cap, and draft pick situation over ours immediately.

That "jealousy" comes from the fact that they are so well positioned to be a strong team for years to come if they finesse this right. I don't for a second think the Leafs have the same projection.

That's called the Cellebrini factor. We were in that same spot when Matthews entered the league. Bad management can ruin the outlook of the roster. Look at us, we are the living proof

 

[Tak7]

That's the dream situation IMHO. No guarantee we wouldn't f*** it up again but is has a better chance of succeeding than anything else. And that's why my biggest hope right now is that we don't sacrifice the future to win now so that McKenna has lots of help when he hits his prime.

Exactly.

My view is if you go back a decade and re-run the Leafs simulation again, we are living in the outcome that happens just 1/100 times.

 

[kb]

Exactly.

My view is if you go back a decade and re-run the Leafs simulation again, we are living in the outcome that happens just 1/100 times.

Or maybe, just maybe......not every rebuild ends up winning cups?

How many teams have rebuilt in this fashion and won a cup without a retool?

Again, all ears....