Leafs (Un)Special Teams

[DragoGrizzly]

I think a lot of our bad pk comes down to goaltending. I imagine it will get better when Woll gets back (and can put together a consistent healthy stretch)

For the PP, it just seems so predictable. Our boys seem to lack creativity when trying to follow the pp structure so rigidly. Like if the break-in back drop pass is covered the guys don’t seem to know what to do.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don't care if anyone wants to prove it, but we all know it is true.

No, we don't know that. In fact, while I'm not going to search through every PP goal and arbitrarily grade their worth based on when they happened, the fact that we have scored the most goals in the league with the goalie pulled - which is essentially a PP - suggests that your claim is wrong.

We are trying to set up Marner on PK. Defending is a secondary task at best.

Lmao. That's not even close to true.

 

[Jojalu]

I have no proof either, but it just seems that when they have gotten a PP opportunity in these clutch situations, especially in the playoffs, they come up empty. And it also seems to be them not being able to enter the zone or losing the ozone faceoff.

In the playoffs I would agree.

 

[ACC1224]

I have no proof either, but it just seems that when they have gotten a PP opportunity in these clutch situations, especially in the playoffs, they come up empty. And it also seems to be them not being able to enter the zone or losing the ozone faceoff.

Hard to deny that when they are down late and awarded a PP opportunity they rarely seem to come up with the big goal in those situations.
This isn't exclusive to the playoffs, happens in the regular season as well.

It would certainly be interesting to see the stats on that, if available. See if reality matches up with perception.

 

[LeafGrief]

PP and PK adding up to 101 is a hair above average. In a 32 team league, average is 16th, which is also right where the playoffs cutoff lies. So we've got the special teams of a bubble team. Man, that's just bleak.

Goaltenders are the most important penalty killers, so it's not surprising that we're so bad on the PK in a season where our goaltending has been a nightmare. But I don't think anyone could seriously look at how we play the PK or who we throw over the boards and think we're getting anything other than what we deserve. Our PK is a mess to the point that we'd need to trade the entire prospect pool to fix it.

As for the PP, it's abysmal that we're 8th when we put 60% of the salary cap on the ice at one time. Our team is built around having the best PP in the league and we're EIGHTH? Most of this is just Marner having a terrible year and JT being a non-entity. But holy jumpin, this is the one thing that we should be better at than anyone else in the league, and we're not noticeably good. Can't blame this one on the depth, can't blame the defense, can't blame the goalies, can't even blame the guy who's going to score 70g, this is the one that you point to and say that this team just doesn't work any more.

Coach is half of it, the other half is the players. Same players, same shit, different year.

 

[Jojalu]

Hard to deny that when they are down late and awarded a PP opportunity they rarely seem to come up with the big goal in those situations.
This isn't exclusive to the playoffs, happens in the regular season as well.

It would certainly be interesting to see the stats on that, if available. See if reality matches up with perception.

I have looked everywhere.

Next time I have a little time I guess I would have to go through gamesheets to see if there is any validity to this

 

[VanW27]

It's great that Matthews and Nylander can PK.. But the big issue is they HAVE to PK because we lost key PKers over the offseason and replaced them with guys who are awful defensively.

 

[Gallagbi]

I have looked everywhere.

Next time I have a little time I guess I would have to go through gamesheets to see if there is any validity to this

Its going to be almost impossible to check individually, because you also need to know how it compares to the league.

Honestly I think it's more fan expectations than reality. You get a big PP and think "this is our chance" when the numbers would suggest you're going to fail 75-80% of the time. Add in how little PPs the league calls in late, close games and I definitely think it's perception.

Just anecdotally our PP last year scored a GWG in OT, opened the scoring to give us a key lead in game 2 v. Tampa and FLA in Game 4. I'm pretty sure Matty scored a big PPG in the TB comeback

The years prior our PP really struggled in the playoffs overall and they still scored an OT winner to extend the series vs. CBJ, was key in the hot start vs. game 1 in TB1

 

[notDatsyuk]

I am shocked to come in here and see people wondering why the PK is so bad.

we only have two forwards who have been regular penalty killers prior to this year (Kampf, Marner) and our most relied upon defenders on the PK are slowing down (Brodie, Gio)

We no longer have Kerfoot, Holl, Engvall types who excel on the PK.

This was so predictable.

Which makes sense except that Kampf and Marner are the forwards with the worst goals allowed per 60 on the PK, while Matthews and Nylander have the best.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

The teams PP currently sits 8th (24.6%) while the PK sits at 27th(76.4%).

They used to say that if you add up the two percentages and its > 100 you're doing well but for me, both of these areas could be doing much better.

Without better PK numbers in particular, this team is going no where come playoff time. Is this a personnel or systems issue? Better goaltending would certainly help.

PP to me looks predictable most times. It seems lately they are using more movement which is good. For me I would always run PP1 the full two minutes.

I would like to see TOR's PK to be a lot better. The PP always falls flat in the playoffs. Fixing the PK with trade deadline acquisitions is a much easier, and cost-effective way to make TOR better.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Which makes sense except that Kampf and Marner are the forwards with the worst goals allowed per 60 on the PK, while Matthews and Nylander have the best.

His post is still true. You're just using the wrong stats - attempting to credit forwards for goaltending performances - and without context.
Matthews and Nylander play occasional secondary minutes against secondary units, because we lost a lot of our penalty killing depth this past offseason.
Defensively, Matthews has done pretty well with it (6.05 xGA/60), but Nylander has not (8.97 xGA/60).

 

[notDatsyuk]

His post is still true. You're just using the wrong stats - attempting to credit forwards for goaltending performances - and without context

That's right - I keep forgetting that Keefe changes goalies part way through each PK!

 

[Gallagbi]

Which makes sense except that Kampf and Marner are the forwards with the worst goals allowed per 60 on the PK, while Matthews and Nylander have the best.

Makes me wonder how much situational aspects play into the numbers given Marner/Kampf start the vast majority of our PKs, which means they face PP1 and start in the defensive end. Generally the other changes are on the fly, meaning they're starting in a better spot. I'd be curious how PK2/3 compares to PK1 across the league

Anecdotally, Matty looks comfortable on the PK, Willy a little more awkward and unsure.

 

[Niagara Bill]

PP and PK adding up to 101 is a hair above average. In a 32 team league, average is 16th, which is also right where the playoffs cutoff lies. So we've got the special teams of a bubble team. Man, that's just bleak.

Goaltenders are the most important penalty killers, so it's not surprising that we're so bad on the PK in a season where our goaltending has been a nightmare. But I don't think anyone could seriously look at how we play the PK or who we throw over the boards and think we're getting anything other than what we deserve. Our PK is a mess to the point that we'd need to trade the entire prospect pool to fix it.

As for the PP, it's abysmal that we're 8th when we put 60% of the salary cap on the ice at one time. Our team is built around having the best PP in the league and we're EIGHTH? Most of this is just Marner having a terrible year and JT being a non-entity. But holy jumpin, this is the one thing that we should be better at than anyone else in the league, and we're not noticeably good. Can't blame this one on the depth, can't blame the defense, can't blame the goalies, can't even blame the guy who's going to score 70g, this is the one that you point to and say that this team just doesn't work any more.

Coach is half of it, the other half is the players. Same players, same shit, different year.

Amen!
But I would add we have a very closed pp in terms of who over the season gets regular chances. This plays into team spirit and passion. Coaches are reluctant to take Mitchy and Jt off. The penalty kill is similar. Imagine 27th and we know who will be out there already. Nobody steps up or is allowed to step up.
The Dmen are not build for this.
Then again we are running a charity goaltending clinic. ( are you smiling yet Sammy). Participation ribbons all around.

 

[ACC1224]

Which makes sense except that Kampf and Marner are the forwards with the worst goals allowed per 60 on the PK, while Matthews and Nylander have the best.

Wonder how much that has to do with players facing the first PP unit vs the 2nd PP unit? or facing fresh players vs tired players?
IMO, Nylander doesn't look very good on the PK(yes I know he's scored shorthanded)

 

[Dekes For Days]

That's right - I keep forgetting that Keefe changes goalies part way through each PK!

No, but you do keep forgetting context, that teams use multiple goaltenders throughout a season, and most importantly, that goaltending performance and impact from any individual goalie fluctuates quite a bit throughout a season and within a game. It is not a static factor.

 

[Fogelhund]

Makes me wonder how much situational aspects play into the numbers given Marner/Kampf start the vast majority of our PPs, which means they face PP1 and start in the defensive end. Generally the other changes are on the fly, meaning they're starting in a better spot. I'd be curious how PK2/3 compares to PK1 across the league

Anecdotally, Matty looks comfortable on the PK, Willy a little more awkward and unsure.

I think you meant PK at the start of this....

 

[Gallagbi]

I think you meant PK at the start of this....

Fixed. Thanks

 

[IPS]

Are all top PK'ers on every team usually the worst on GA/60 on the PK?

 

[notDatsyuk]

No, but you do keep forgetting context, that teams use multiple goaltenders throughout a season, and most importantly, that goaltending performance and impact from any individual goalie fluctuates quite a bit throughout a season and within a game. It is not a static factor.

I'm sure you want to pretend that Kampf and Marner are only used when our weaker goalie is playing, but the opposite is actually true - Matthews and Nylander have been getting more PK time with Sammy and Jones, and yet have about half the ga/60.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm sure you want to pretend that Kampf and Marner are only used when our weaker goalie is playing, but the opposite is actually true - Matthews and Nylander have been getting more PK time with Sammy and Jones, and yet have about half the ga/60.

Not sure where you're getting the claim that "Matthews and Nylander have been getting more PK time with Sammy and Jones" in the first place, or why you're pretending that Jones has been bad, but it also has nothing to do with my statement anyway. You're still completely missing the point.

This isn't about "weaker goalie" or "stronger goalie". This is about the fact that goaltending performance and impact from any individual goalie fluctuates quite a bit throughout a season and within a game. It is not a static factor, and you cannot attribute goaltending impacts to forwards. We have defensive metrics for a reason.

A team allows two breakaways in a game. The first one is saved, and the second one goes in. Your argument boils down to claiming that the players that allowed the first breakaway are better defensively than the players that allowed the second breakaway, because the goalie performance on that play was different. Clearly, that is wrong.

And of course, it's even worse when you also exclude context to flatter players that face easier situations and secondary units that are worse at generating offense and converting.

 

[studebaker17]

PP and PK adding up to 101 is a hair above average. In a 32 team league, average is 16th, which is also right where the playoffs cutoff lies. So we've got the special teams of a bubble team. Man, that's just bleak.

Goaltenders are the most important penalty killers, so it's not surprising that we're so bad on the PK in a season where our goaltending has been a nightmare. But I don't think anyone could seriously look at how we play the PK or who we throw over the boards and think we're getting anything other than what we deserve. Our PK is a mess to the point that we'd need to trade the entire prospect pool to fix it.

As for the PP, it's abysmal that we're 8th when we put 60% of the salary cap on the ice at one time. Our team is built around having the best PP in the league and we're EIGHTH? Most of this is just Marner having a terrible year and JT being a non-entity. But holy jumpin, this is the one thing that we should be better at than anyone else in the league, and we're not noticeably good. Can't blame this one on the depth, can't blame the defense, can't blame the goalies, can't even blame the guy who's going to score 70g, this is the one that you point to and say that this team just doesn't work any more.

Coach is half of it, the other half is the players. Same players, same shit, different year.

Other than saleries why would the Leafs be projected to be any better of a PP than half the other teams out there ? To me their look average if that . Still no true Blueline quarterback . Hense why they play 2 forwards back there a lot of the time .

8th isn't to bad anyways and within a couple % of 4th .

Think for us watching it becomes stale . Same feelings happen for every version of Leafs iv'e watched in my lifetime . You see the same entries , same set up ect over and over .

All that said watch Tampa's PP when they're on . It's like poetry . Kuch ,Stammer , Point all can fire the puck or pass . Hedman same . Watch how fast they move the puck around and move the puck through the seam in a lot tighter than the Leafs move it .

To me there's 2 faults on the Leafs PP. If Tavares gets the puck and tries to carry it , it's an automatic icing . The other is not moving around enough and just moving the puck around the outside while 3 players stand almost still .

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not sure where you're getting the claim that "Matthews and Nylander have been getting more PK time with Sammy and Jones" in the first place, or why you're pretending that Jones has been bad, but it also has nothing to do with my statement anyway. You're still completely missing the point.

This isn't about "weaker goalie" or "stronger goalie". This is about the fact that goaltending performance and impact from any individual goalie fluctuates quite a bit throughout a season and within a game. It is not a static factor, and you cannot attribute goaltending impacts to forwards. We have defensive metrics for a reason.

A team allows two breakaways in a game. The first one is saved, and the second one goes in. Your argument boils down to claiming that the players that allowed the first breakaway are better defensively than the players that allowed the second breakaway, because the goalie performance on that play was different. Clearly, that is wrong.

And of course, it's even worse when you also exclude context to flatter players that face easier situations and secondary units that are worse at generating offense and converting.

Sorry, Dekes - I know you can't or won't admit that you're wrong about anything, so I really shouldn't tease you with facts you can't dispute.

Sorry for wasting my time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sorry, Dekes - I know you can't or won't admit that you're wrong about anything, so I really shouldn't tease you with facts you can't dispute.

I always admit when I'm wrong about something. I wish that when you realized you were wrong about this, you would have done the same.
You've been given the facts, an explanation of where you went wrong, and an example that highlights the fundamental flaw in your position. The rest is up to you.

 

[Captain Crunch]

No, but you do keep forgetting context, that teams use multiple goaltenders throughout a season, and most importantly, that goaltending performance and impact from any individual goalie fluctuates quite a bit throughout a season and within a game. It is not a static factor.

So do they have the PK stats for each goalie?