Leafs starting line-up 24/25

[Fogelhund]

Still think that the biggest issue isn't a top 6 left wing, rather it's finding a cost effective 2C that can move Tavares down the lineup into a high end 3C role. How do you get that done financially? You move Jarnkrok, Kamp and Robertson and ideally 2 of those pieces go the other way in the deal.

Domi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Addition-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Grebenkin
Dewar-Holmberg-Steeves
Reeves

Add a 2C that can play between Knies and Nylander and create a 3rd scoring line with Tavares as your 3C. Remember that scoring has been the biggest problem in the playoffs. Depth of scoring (at least 3 scoring lines) with 4 quality centers down the middle, is of primary importance IMO.

Interesting stat piece. Leafs top listed C's ended up 3rd, 40th and 65th points for C's in the league last year.

 

[IrishInOntario]

Interesting stat piece. Leafs top listed C's ended up 3rd, 40th and 65th points for C's in the league last year.

I'm super greedy. I'd rather add another top 40-50 guy down the middle, ideally one that can skate with Nylander and Knies and finish with 3 top 50 guys and a top 75 guy.

Great teams are deep down the middle, IMO, and I want to see the Leafs young wingers get a chance to seriously impact the roster. Knies, Cowan, Grebenkin and Robertson are all young kids that I want to see play serious minutes and get a long look, before adding veteran help on the wing. Those are the type of guys that could help you manage the cap in a big way over the coming years if they're contributing. Even Pontus Holmberg might have more juice in him. At 25 years old he might be primed for a 30-40 point breakout season as a depth winger and a clear replacement for an aging Calle Jarnkrok.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I'm super greedy. I'd rather add another top 40-50 guy down the middle, ideally one that can skate with Nylander and Knies and finish with 3 top 50 guys and a top 75 guy.

Great teams are deep down the middle, IMO, and I want to see the Leafs young wingers get a chance to seriously impact the roster. Knies, Cowan, Grebenkin and Robertson are all young kids that I want to see play serious minutes and get a long look, before adding veteran help on the wing. Those are the type of guys that could help you manage the cap in a big way over the coming years if they're contributing. Even Pontus Holmberg might have more juice in him. At 25 years old he might be primed for a 30-40 point breakout season as a depth winger and a clear replacement for an aging Calle Jarnkrok.

You do realize that our #40 C is only that high because his usual RW is one of the best in the league (4th in scoring last year), and our #65 C was actually our 1RW for a good part of the season (and played much better as a winger than as a centre).

Of course if we had played our #65 C at centre on the third line he would have had a lot fewer points, and if we had used him at centre on the second line our #40 C would have dropped to 3C, and produced a lot fewer points. Adding a fourth C (in the 40-50 range) would mean one of them would be playing in the fourth line, and wouldn't get anywhere close to that.

 

[Fogelhund]

You do realize that our #40 C is only that high because his usual RW is one of the best in the league (4th in scoring last year), and our #65 C was actually our 1RW for a good part of the season (and played much better as a winger than as a centre).

Of course if we had played our #65 C at centre on the third line he would have had a lot fewer points, and if we had used him at centre on the second line our #40 C would have dropped to 3C, and produced a lot fewer points. Adding a fourth C (in the 40-50 range) would mean one of them would be playing in the fourth line, and wouldn't get anywhere close to that.

Domi’s production while playing 3C was around 0.5 PPG. That excludes his time playing wing.

No matter how you slice it, our C production last year was in the elite category across the league.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Domi’s production while playing 3C was around 0.5 PPG. That excludes his time playing wing.

No matter how you slice it, our C production last year was in the elite category across the league.

A .5 ppg puts Domi out of the top 100, which supports my point that he was better as a winger.

So an elite 1C, a 2C buoyed by an elite winger, and a below average 3C.

 

[Fogelhund]

A .5 ppg puts Domi out of the top 100, which supports my point that he was better as a winger.

So an elite 1C, a 2C buoyed by an elite winger, and a below average 3C.

Except you have to exclude all of the "C's" who aren't C's. Your search also didn't rule out those who played 1 game... or 4 games. His rank would have been high 70's, low 80's once you rule out people who aren't really C's, and those who didn't play enough games to be statistically significant. Noting, there are 202 "listed" C's, who played more than 40 games last year. 0.5 places you 94th... which is in fact, above the Median, not below.

In any case... statistically speaking, a first liner should be in the first quartile, second liner second quartile, and so on.... We have two in the first quartile, and one in the second quartile....

His chemistry with Matthews last year, and spreading around the production is a better argument for putting him at Wing though... assuming we can get someone else to step up, and play 3C in an acceptable manner. I think Holmberg has that in him, but he needs to really make a few steps up in play this year.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Except you have to exclude all of the "C's" who aren't C's. Your search also didn't rule out those who played 1 game... or 4 games. His rank would have been high 70's, low 80's once you rule out people who aren't really C's, and those who didn't play enough games to be statistically significant. Noting, there are 202 "listed" C's, who played more than 40 games last year. 0.5 places you 94th... which is in fact, above the Median, not below.

In any case... statistically speaking, a first liner should be in the first quartile, second liner second quartile, and so on.... We have two in the first quartile, and one in the second quartile....

His chemistry with Matthews last year, and spreading around the production is a better argument for putting him at Wing though... assuming we can get someone else to step up, and play 3C in an acceptable manner. I think Holmberg has that in him, but he needs to really make a few steps up in play this year.

94th is at the very bottom of the 3Cs (65-96). I don't think 40th is in the top 32 either.

I wasn't arguing that he should be a centre - quite the opposite. Someone said he was an elite C, and I just pointed out that he was better on Matthews' wing.

JT was 40th in points, and 42nd in ppg last year, playing with a winger who was 4th at his position, despite playing on the second line. I don't think JT is really 2C material this year. I see him more as a 3C this year, with possibly Holmberg or Nylander at 2C.

Anyway, that was all I was debating with another poster, who said we had an elite set of centres in Matthews, Tavares, and Domi.

 

[Fogelhund]

94th is at the very bottom of the 3Cs (65-96). I don't think 40th is in the top 32 either.

I wasn't arguing that he should be a centre - quite the opposite. Someone said he was an elite C, and I just pointed out that he was better on Matthews' wing.

JT was 40th in points, and 42nd in ppg last year, playing with a winger who was 4th at his position, despite playing on the second line. I don't think JT is really 2C material this year. I see him more as a 3C this year, with possibly Holmberg or Nylander at 2C.

Anyway, that was all I was debating with another poster, who said we had an elite set of centres in Matthews, Tavares, and Domi.

Math is tripping you up here.

There are 202 listed C's, who played more than 40 games last year. I believe just shy of 300 who played at all.

First quartile is the top 25%. Second quartile the next 25%. Picking by 32, a) captures wingers, b) ends up with teams running their 5C and 6C on a regular basis... and most teams don't run six lines.

To have three C's, in the top half... as in above the median in scoring for C's isn't the norm. Maybe not elite, but there probably aren't more than 6-8 teams who fall into this.

It wouldn't shock me to see JT put up more points this year, than last year... he'll still be a solid 2C this year.... but happy to wage a beverage over that. His decline is over rated.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Math is tripping you up here.

There are 202 listed C's, who played more than 40 games last year. I believe just shy of 300 who played at all.

First quartile is the top 25%. Second quartile the next 25%. Picking by 32, a) captures wingers, b) ends up with teams running their 5C and 6C on a regular basis... and most teams don't run six lines.

To have three C's, in the top half... as in above the median in scoring for C's isn't the norm. Maybe not elite, but there probably aren't more than 6-8 teams who fall into this.

It wouldn't shock me to see JT put up more points this year, than last year... he'll still be a solid 2C this year.... but happy to wage a beverage over that. His decline is over rated.

As you pointed out, that includes a lot who didn't actually play centre.

All of which isn't what I was saying at all.

Do you think JT is a 1C? Do you think Domi is a 2C or even a C?

Instead of over rated, I think his decline over the last couple of years has actually been masked by Nylander's steady improvement. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but I don't think it likely.

 

[Fogelhund]

As you pointed out, that includes a lot who didn't actually play centre.

All of which isn't what I was saying at all.

Do you think JT is a 1C? Do you think Domi is a 2C or even a C?

Instead of over rated, I think his decline over the last couple of years has actually been masked by Nylander's steady improvement. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but I don't think it likely.

JT's play and production has been that of a 1C, with the exception of last year, when IMO he was still solidly a 2C. Domi isn't really a 2C, but his best years of production have been when he's played C. Including Centering Kane, and his time in Montreal. Could he be a 2C... sure, with the right linemates, but he'd be the complimentary guy, not the guy carrying the line. He put up 49 points in 60 games beside Kane as his C.... That's pretty solid stuff.

Personally I'd rather split up the lines, and have him with Matthews, and Nylander and Marner each running different lines.

 

[notDatsyuk]

JT's play and production has been that of a 1C, with the exception of last year, when IMO he was still solidly a 2C. Domi isn't really a 2C, but his best years of production have been when he's played C. Including Centering Kane, and his time in Montreal. Could he be a 2C... sure, with the right linemates, but he'd be the complimentary guy, not the guy carrying the line. He put up 49 points in 60 games beside Kane as his C.... That's pretty solid stuff.

Personally I'd rather split up the lines, and have him with Matthews, and Nylander and Marner each running different lines.

I think JT's production had been at 1C level his first few years here, but not the last couple. His numbers have been buoyed up by Nylander's improvement. He's still producing decent numbers, but his play has clearly dropped off.

I'd like to see both Nylander and Marner play away from JT(and Matty), but the only way I see that happening is for Willy to centre Mitch (or vice versa, but I don't think that would work as well).

 

[Puckstuff]

The leafs lost 20+ goals from Bertuzzi

By Matthews just being an elite 50 goal scorer instead of a freak of nature 69 goal scorer, we just lost another 20 goals.

If the leafs lose Robertson, they just lost another expected 20 goals.

That's a potential loss of 50-60 goals.

I really don't think the leafs want to gamble on this. I think they will get Robertson signed. If he plays a healthy 82, he's a lock for 20 goals or he will play to that pace.

 

[Americanadian]

The leafs lost 20+ goals from Bertuzzi

By Matthews just being an elite 50 goal scorer instead of a freak of nature 69 goal scorer, we just lost another 20 goals.

If the leafs lose Robertson, they just lost another expected 20 goals.

That's a potential loss of 50-60 goals.

I really don't think the leafs want to gamble on this. I think they will get Robertson signed. If he plays a healthy 82, he's a lock for 20 goals or he will play to that pace.

The Leafs could score 30 less goals and still make the playoffs with ease. If Bertuzzi and Robertson are both gone that's -35 goals off last years roster. Both players will be replaced in the top 9 by Jarnkrok and Holmberg or some mystery LW. Assuming it's just Jarnkrok-Holmberg let's say they go from 17 combined goals to 27 playing with elevated talent. That's +10 and they also get +5 going from Brodie to OEL. There's also a good chance Domi, who has averaged 16 goals/82GP in his career can score an additional 5. That's +20 from Domi/Jarnkrok/Holmberg/OEL. That would leave them at net -15 without factoring in Matthews regression which sportsbooks have him at 55 goals. Let's say Matthews scores 55 and nothing else really changes (Knies/McMann don't score more than 15). That would be a overall net of -30 which would have put them 10th in league scoring last year, 3 goals ahead of the cup winning Panthers, and still at a positive goal differential.

What they should really focus on is how do they go from 21st in goals against to top 10.

 

[Fogelhund]

The leafs lost 20+ goals from Bertuzzi

By Matthews just being an elite 50 goal scorer instead of a freak of nature 69 goal scorer, we just lost another 20 goals.

If the leafs lose Robertson, they just lost another expected 20 goals.

That's a potential loss of 50-60 goals.

I really don't think the leafs want to gamble on this. I think they will get Robertson signed. If he plays a healthy 82, he's a lock for 20 goals or he will play to that pace.

Leafs gained 8 goals going from Brodie to OEL.
Leafs gained 5 goals going from Gregor to Dewar
Leafs will likely gain 15-20 goals from Knies and McMann playing the whole year, and growing their games.

Leafs will try and keep Robertson.

 

[Puckstuff]

Leafs gained 8 goals going from Brodie to OEL.
Leafs gained 5 goals going from Gregor to Dewar
Leafs will likely gain 15-20 goals from Knies and McMann playing the whole year, and growing their games.

Leafs will try and keep Robertson.

I do agree with you that OEL and full seasons from McMann and Knies should replace most of the loss from Bertuzzi. But Robertson would still be a big loss, so yeah, we should keep him.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Knies - - Matthews - - Domi
McMann - Nylander - Marner
Cowan - Tavares - Jarnkrok
Dewar - Kampf - Reaves

Rielly - Tanev
Benoit - McCabe
OEL - Liljegren​

 

[hobarth]

Actually he is a minus player over the last 5 yrs......and is a -32 in his career so......fact check yourself please.

Where are you getting these malarkey stats?

William Nylander Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com has the proper stats so what are you talking about?

 

[hobarth]

Still think that the biggest issue isn't a top 6 left wing, rather it's finding a cost effective 2C that can move Tavares down the lineup into a high end 3C role. How do you get that done financially? You move Jarnkrok, Kamp and Robertson and ideally 2 of those pieces go the other way in the deal.

Domi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Addition-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Grebenkin
Dewar-Holmberg-Steeves
Reeves

Add a 2C that can play between Knies and Nylander and create a 3rd scoring line with Tavares as your 3C. Remember that scoring has been the biggest problem in the playoffs. Depth of scoring (at least 3 scoring lines) with 4 quality centers down the middle, is of primary importance IMO.

Sure, easy enough, right, there's all kinds of quality 2nd line centers available that TO could trade for and they wouldn't cost much, eh?

 

[hobarth]

A .5 ppg puts Domi out of the top 100, which supports my point that he was better as a winger.

So an elite 1C, a 2C buoyed by an elite winger, and a below average 3C.

Wouldn't there be a fly with eagles when playing with turkeys possibility here?

Any 3rd line center that can post .5 points per game and keep his +/- in the positive is a gem, a definite keeper!

 

[notDatsyuk]

Wouldn't there be a fly with eagles when playing with turkeys possibility here?

Any 3rd line center that can post .5 points per game and keep his +/- in the positive is a gem, a definite keeper!

The average third line centre (80th in ppg last year) produced at 0.60 ppg, so 0.50 isn't spectacular.

But the point was that he and Matthews were more productive together than even Matthews and Marner.

If Nylander can produce even close to as well at 2C as he did on the wing and JT can drop to 3C, the team will be even better.

The eagles and turkeys metaphor applies at least as well to Willy and JT.

 

[hobarth]

The average third line centre (80th in ppg last year) produced at 0.60 ppg, so 0.50 isn't spectacular.

But the point was that he and Matthews were more productive together than even Matthews and Marner.

If Nylander can produce even close to as well at 2C as he did on the wing and JT can drop to 3C, the team will be even better.

The eagles and turkeys metaphor applies at least as well to Willy and JT.

Let's look at 3rd line centers just in TO's division, from Boston, Fredrick and Geekie had 40 and 39 points, neither challenged 60%, from Florida the 3rd line center Lundell had 35 pts in 78 games, again nowhere close to 60%. This is as far as I'm going, Boston and Florida were 2 of the best teams in the NHL last year.

Where did you come by your bogus contention that 3rd line centers averaged .6 points per game.

 

[hobarth]

TO's top 2 centers last year with 107 pts. and 65 pts. was top 5 in the NHL last year, JT while not anywhere near the player he was is still a quality #2 center.

TO's problem has been poor winger depth and a d that can't move the puck. Tanev doesn't address the lack of on ice offensive/puck moving IQ that TO's d needs. poor signing on every level.

 

[conFABulator]

TO's top 2 centers last year with 107 pts. and 65 pts. was top 5 in the NHL last year, JT while not anywhere near the player he was is still a quality #2 center.

TO's problem has been poor winger depth and a d that can't move the puck. Tanev doesn't address the lack of on ice offensive/puck moving IQ that TO's d needs. poor signing on every level.

True, Tanev does add that element directly but if paired with Reilly then he might free him up to add more offense. That could be a big add to this team.

We also added OEL. We should have more offense from the D this year.

I also agree that people are way too hard on Tavares. They can't get past that he is overpaid. He is, but he can still produce. Having said this, I am a big fan of slitting the big four up across three lines and I like Tavares being a 3C. He can get a little less ice time and benefit from better match ups.

If Robertson signs...

1. Knies Matthews Marner
2a. Domi Holmberg Nylander
2b. Robertson Tavares McMann
4. Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok

If Robertson sits...

1. Knies Matthews Marner
2a. Domi Holmberg Nylander
2b. Cowan Tavares McMann
4. Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok

After nine games we can evaluate. Keep Cowan up? Sign Robertson? Slide Jarnkrok to the top nine and see Steeves or Reaves on the fourth line? Grebenkin? Minten?

 

[hobarth]

True, Tanev does add that element directly but if paired with Reilly then he might free him up to add more offense. That could be a big add to this team.

We also added OEL. We should have more offense from the D this year.

I also agree that people are way too hard on Tavares. They can't get past that he is overpaid. He is, but he can still produce. Having said this, I am a big fan of slitting the big four up across three lines and I like Tavares being a 3C. He can get a little less ice time and benefit from better match ups.

If Robertson signs...

1. Knies Matthews Marner
2a. Domi Holmberg Nylander
2b. Robertson Tavares McMann
4. Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok

If Robertson sits...

1. Knies Matthews Marner
2a. Domi Holmberg Nylander
2b. Cowan Tavares McMann
4. Dewar Kampf Jarnkrok

After nine games we can evaluate. Keep Cowan up? Sign Robertson? Slide Jarnkrok to the top nine and see Steeves or Reaves on the fourth line? Grebenkin? Minten?

Tanev is so fragile, I doubt he's going to be anything positive for TO, another Marleau signing, pathetic.

OEL hasn't put up exceptional offensive stats for at least 5 years so I don't think we should expect that we're getting the 29 year old OEL. What does surprise me is his penalty stats, 76 this last year and he's had even more in the past.

If OEL can be a credible top 4 d-man, TO has done well signing him, he's 33 now and he is the type of player that I think would be a proper/best partner for Rielly. Defensive anchors don't make offensive dmen better, they simply put more pressure on their partners.

 

[conFABulator]

Tanev is so fragile, I doubt he's going to be anything positive for TO, another Marleau signing, pathetic.

OEL hasn't put up exceptional offensive stats for at least 5 years so I don't think we should expect that we're getting the 29 year old OEL. What does surprise me is his penalty stats, 76 this last year and he's had even more in the past.

If OEL can be a credible top 4 d-man, TO has done well signing him, he's 33 now and he is the type of player that I think would be a proper/best partner for Rielly. Defensive anchors don't make offensive dmen better, they simply put more pressure on their partners.

I believe Tanev has missed an average of nine games a year over the past five seasons. He was warrior the last playoff run for Dallas. That's not fragile, he does play hard though and we want that element. Also the impact he could have on Reilly's game should not be overlooked. He hasn't had a proper partner since Hainsey.

I never said OEL was exceptional offensively. I said he is good, very good and an upgrade. These two guys are replacing Brodie and Giordano who both played top six amount of games on Leafs D last year. Brodie played 78 games.

Add in McCabe, a full season of Benoit, and a healthier Liljegren and our D is looking pretty good. Is it the best? No. Is it better than last year? Yes.

Consider improved goaltending, no one can be as bad as Samsonov was last year, and we should see in improved PK and generally tighter ES D and we shave off 30 or 40 goals against.

It's better