Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign Jake McCabe to an extension (5 years - 4.51M AAV)

[Leafsfan74]

Reasonable contract. With that being said, I am pretty concerned about how our D is gonna age:

- Tanev: currently 34, signed this year and 5 more ($4.5 mil AAV)

- OEL: currently 33, signed this year and 3 more ($3.5 mil AAV)

- McCabe: currently 31, signed this year and 5 more ($2 mil AAV this year, then $4.5 mil AAV the rest)

- Rielly: currently 30, signed this year and 5 more ($7.5 mil AAV)

Right now, these deals are fine. But it’s very, very common for players to drop off significantly in their early 30s. These guys are all going to be 36 to 40 by the time their deals expire, the chance of these deals collectively becoming an absolute boat anchor is really high.

All of these deals are reasonable in isolation, they’re all likely “good for a few years, then bad the last few years” type deals. But having 4 like that is scary.

Defenseman are like fine wine, they age well.

The only time you want to worry about a D man aging into his 40s is if he relies heavily on his foot speed. The core assets of a D Man are his positioning, reading the play, his desire to play physical, get in lanes, block shots, make quick outlet passes when needed. You learn how to do that better at age 35 than you knew at age 23.

I remember the rumours that Dubas had tried and failed to pick up Karlsson at the deadline a couple of years ago. I posted on here how relieved I was that he failed to get him. He is the type of D Man I would not want on my team at $11.5M a year. He kept his pursuit and grabbed him in Pittsburgh. You can be the judge if that worked out or not.

I will take the McCabes, Tanevs, Benoits et al all day over the Karlssons of the NHL. Even if they are in the late 30s. The mental fortitude, commitment to sacrifice and wisdom one acquires over years of playing D outweigh other concerns.

The best defenseman that I saw on a regular basis was Nick Lindstrom. He happened to admire the great Borje Salming so he had a great role model. He was a strong defender but also an offensive threat. Basically a unicorn on a very short list in league history.

He won 7 Norris trophies and check out his average ice time throughout his career. It's incredible. He was basically a one man shutdown unit. He damn near played half the game some seasons and I'm not exagerrating. From the ages between 27 and 41 he never played LESS than 23 minutes a game. Played as many as 28 per game. Insanity.

He won the Norris at age 40 and in his last year at age 41 he finished 5th in voting.

The players in Toronto have all the care in the world they could need from diet to therapy to access to anything they could ask for. I wouldn't be surpised if in 20 years from now there are a lengthy list of defensemen playing to age 45.

Their contracts will be fine as long as they stay relatively healthy.

 

[ponder]

Defenseman are like fine wine, they age well.

The only time you want to worry about a D man aging into his 40s is if he relies heavily on his foot speed. The core assets of a D Man are his positioning, reading the play, his desire to play physical, get in lanes, block shots, make quick outlet passes when needed. You learn how to do that better at age 35 than you knew at age 23.

I remember the rumours that Dubas had tried and failed to pick up Karlsson at the deadline a couple of years ago. I posted on here how relieved I was that he failed to get him. He is the type of D Man I would not want on my team at $11.5M a year. He kept his pursuit and grabbed him in Pittsburgh. You can be the judge if that worked out or not.

I will take the McCabes, Tanevs, Benoits et al all day over the Karlssons of the NHL. Even if they are in the late 30s. The mental fortitude, commitment to sacrifice and wisdom one acquires over years of playing D outweigh other concerns.

The best defenseman that I saw on a regular basis was Nick Lindstrom. He happened to admire the great Borje Salming so he had a great role model. He was a strong defender but also an offensive threat. Basically a unicorn on a very short list in league history.

He won 7 Norris trophies and check out his average ice time throughout his career. It's incredible. He was basically a one man shutdown unit. He damn near played half the game some seasons and I'm not exagerrating. From the ages between 27 and 41 he never played LESS than 23 minutes a game. Played as many as 28 per game. Insanity.

He won the Norris at age 40 and in his last year at age 41 he finished 5th in voting.

The players in Toronto have all the care in the world they could need from diet to therapy to access to anything they could ask for. I wouldn't be surpised if in 20 years from now there are a lengthy list of defensemen playing to age 45.

Their contracts will be fine as long as they stay relatively healthy.

If it were true that dmen were generally better at 35 than 23, then there should be more 35 year old dmen than 23 year old dmen in the league. This is not remotely true - most dmen are useless at the NHL level and out of the league by 35. Those who remain are mostly relegated to minimal roles. Dmen age well into their early 30s, but by their mid/late 30s, they're just too slow, it's a major hit to their game, and very, very few dmen are actually contributing at a high level at 35+.

NHL age curves for dmen: https://summit.sfu.ca/_flysystem/fedora/2023-02/etd22294.pdf

NHL.com doesn't have a filter for age, but it does have a filter for draft year, which is almost as good. Players from the 2007 draft are currently ~35, while players from the 2019 draft are currently ~23.

• There's 5 dmen currently in the league from the 2007 draft (~35 years old): NHL Stats
• There's 20 dmen currently in the league from the 2019 draft (~23 years old): NHL Stats

And from the actual prime of dmen, which is ~25-30:

• 2017 draft (~25) - 17 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2016 draft (~26) - 15 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2015 draft (~27) - 22 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2014 draft (~28) - 10 dmen (shit draft for dmen): NHL Stats
• 2013 draft (~29) - 15 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2012 draft (~30) - 21 dmen: NHL Stats

And worse, all of Tanev/OEL/McCabe/Rielly will be 36-40 by the time their deals expire, and those numbers are even more grim than 35:

• 2006 draft (~36) - 2 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2005 draft (~37) - 2 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2004 draft (~38) - 0 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2003 draft (~39) - 2 dmen: NHL Stats
• 2002 draft (~40) - 0 dmen: NHL Stats

I'm sure Tanev/OEL/McCabe/Rielly won't retire before their deals end, but chances are they'll be one of:

• Bought out
• We'll have to pay to dump their caps in a trade
• Still playing for us but badly overpaid
• LTIRetired

If even 1 of these 4 is still playing for us and worth their salary in the last year of their deal, I'll consider that a minor miracle.