Speculation: Leafs rushed the rebuild

[thewave]

Could of taken chances by moving these guys for something that could be cost effective helping you right now as well.

The contracts are designed for trade. Looks like 3 years to run for it and then trade off and mix the team. They should make JT captain tommorow, he will be around longer.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Acquiring Tavares was not a "Fill the coffers" slow rebuild. Maybe that option was never in the cards after getting Matthews and Marner ?

The next 5 years will be fun.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

They should make JT captain tommorow, he will be around longer.

With the short Matthews contract i am making JT captain

 

[Joey Hoser]

I guess you are unaware of the goalie being the factor ?

I am. We have a pretty good goalie and pretty good defense which results in a very good GA. There's nothing exceptional going on here. It is what it appears to be.

1) Do we have a team to beat Boston ? - Yeah we're better than them at this point.
2) Do we have a team to beat Tampa Bay ? They're one of the best teams in decades. Should the whole league just give up because of it?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

To say we rushed is inexcusable. Stupidest thread I have seen on these boards in a long time.

Are you saying our rebuild was slow ?

 

[81Leafs50]

I knew they would.

They weren’t ready to add a huge UFA like Tavares. The timing they had to make a choice and I get it. I said at the time how much I hated the decision.

Here it is now proving to us all why it was the wrong one. Yes he’s a hell of player but he destroyed the cap structure on the team. Leafs should of re signed their core before going after Tavares.

That should of been priority number one not getting another high priced forward. It arguably took away 3 years of us being competitive. Can’t even imagine what the Marner contract will look like either. Fact is also Tavares was a luxury not a need at all.

Doubt Matthews contract looked like this if not for Tavares.

Reported asks for Marner 9X8 and Matthews 12.34*8 in the summer (although Matthews there was a lot of different insider opinions on what the number in the summer was but either way it was 8 years.)

Matthews cap number was determined by McDavid not Tavares.

 

[thewave]

Matthews cap number was determined by McDavid not Tavares.

It also wasn't determined by rational thinking or sanity. We just tossed out the value of RFA. Its gone, trading for players 3-4 years into long deals and mercenary players is king now.

 

[TheCLAM]

More teams might equal more revenue but it also equals more teams so it may not effect the cap at all. If it is a middle team that makes middle money the cap wont change much from it. Then you also have to factor in more teams taking from the national tv contracts and that is decreasing the amount of revenue per team. I hope players like escrow because the ever rising cap is killing them.

History does not support your case. The expansion fee + revenue sharing increased the cap this year once Vegas came in. It will have the exact same effect on the cap.. You're thinking too small aka per franchise, it's a macro-economic discussion about 1 enterprise the NHL. They will undoubtedly make more on the bottom-line with a franchise coming into the league paying a fixed rate then gate sales + season tickets + merchandise etc.

Middle team = middle money doesn't even make sense because Toronto is a top team = top money yet they revenue share with the rest of the league including bottom feeders.

No economically we differ.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

During the summer I predicted Tavares new contract will be used as a magnet/ salary escalator by player agents to raise Leafs internal pay scale and to toss out NHL comparables to determine the new contracts for the 3 Amigos.

Matthews @ $12 mil
Tavares @ $11 mil
Marner @ $ 10 mil
Nylander @ $7.5 mil

Those numbers were not well received at the time, and to be fair my numbers were based on 8 year deals with Leafs buying maximum UFA away in those prices incl;uded.

Dubas is handing out those #'s and only getting 1 year of UFA status from players, while leaving 2-3 UFA on the cutting room floor, thanks to seasoned player agents get the best of him.

As a self proclaimed realist, those Dubas contracts being handed out are even more pessimistic than I feared.. I thought my numbers on 8 year deals were worst case scenario.

Tavares rushed the rebuild. And escalated the salaries. which were overinflated in the points inflated era our core has benefited from.

It is going to be a fun 5 years but the lack of depth could be our downfall in the parity NHL.

 

[supsens]

History does not support your case. The expansion fee + revenue sharing increased the cap this year once Vegas came in. It will have the exact same effect on the cap.. You're thinking too small aka per franchise, it's a macro-economic discussion about 1 enterprise the NHL. They will undoubtedly make more on the bottom-line with a franchise coming into the league paying a fixed rate then gate sales + season tickets + merchandise etc.

Middle team = middle money doesn't even make sense because Toronto is a top team = top money yet they revenue share with the rest of the league including bottom feeders.

No economically we differ.

Expansion fee is not counted.
If two guys both have 1 million and split it with two teams or if three guys all have 1 and split it with three teams they all still have 1 million per team. I am not thinking too small, I was saying expansion teams will be middle teams.

 

[Jmo89]

The rebuild wasn't rushed. Having too many players get good is a good problem to have.

The issue is that the management (Dubas and his AGMs) made their first *big* mistake and waited too long on Marner and Matthews. They should have been "overpaid" in the summer and it would have been less than what they're getting now.

The team is still in good shape. They may take a step back next year but should have 3-4 years after of legitimate cup contention. The question is, can this group get it done in the playoffs?

In the end, Marner and Matthews being overpaid equals a solid 2nd or 3rd line player getting ~4M. Let's hope they can continue to fill the spot internally for cheap.

 

[81Leafs50]

It also wasn't determined by rational thinking or sanity. We just tossed out the value of RFA. Its gone, trading for players 3-4 years into long deals and mercenary players is king now.

NOT really. What is happening now with RFA's is a result of the salary cap. The window to win is short and teams do not want to pay old players and young talent is now costing a premium.

The salary cap has also resulted in players signing contracts with HUGE signing bonuses so that they can get paid in case of a lockout.

The owners have literally lost all the leverage they ever had.

 

[Mess]

Tavares rushed the rebuild. And escalated the salaries. which were overinflated in the points inflated era our core has benefited from.

It is going to be a fun 5 years but the lack of depth could be our downfall in the parity NHL.

Well I look at "rushed the rebuild" in terms of JT signing and now the Muzzin trade as Leafs going All-in on this season in hopes of winning the Cup while Matthews and Marner are on their ELC and producing at elite levels.

I think Leaf management is smart enough to recognize Leafs window of opportunity to win it all odds are greatest this year and drop significantly once AM + MM are eating up $22 mil cap and not < $2 mil now combined. As a result they have $20 mil more free cap space this year than next, which they currently using on JT at $11 mil and Nylander at $10.2 mil.

Everyone knows that your team doesn't get better simply by paying your own players more money and when those new contracts kick in, current players will be walking out the door for cap reasons and team depth will suffer significantly which in turn hurts Cup competitiveness. Soon it will be Leafs 4 forwards + Reilly + Andersen and a roster mostly filled out with Marlies thereafter in the upcoming years.

Lets hope this is Leafs year

 

[thewave]

NOT really. What is happening now with RFA's is a result of the salary cap. The window to win is short and teams do not want to pay old players and young talent is now costing a premium.

The salary cap has also resulted in players signing contracts with HUGE signing bonuses so that they can get paid in case of a lockout.

The owners have literally lost all the leverage they ever had.

Yeah, mostly because Dubas. Everyone else still got reasonable deals but us. Why are we always the losers in this game? Why? Tell me please, why are we constantly creating Muskoka 5 scenarios and such? Why is this?

 

[TheCLAM]

Expansion fee is not counted.
If two guys both have 1 million and split it with two teams or if three guys all have 1 and split it with three teams they all still have 1 million per team. I am not thinking too small, I was saying expansion teams will be middle teams.

Your assumption does not include an influx of cash from a 3rd person. You're assuming cash is the same cash is circulated, not factoring outside dollars coming in. If you own a chain of dollar stores and are strategic about geographic location.. you will increasing your bottom line.

 

[thewave]

Well I look at "rushed the rebuild" in terms of JT signing and now the Muzzin trade as Leafs going All-in on this season in hopes of winning the Cup while Matthews and Marner are on their ELC and producing at elite levels.

I think Leaf management is smart enough to recognize Leafs window of opportunity to win it all odds are best this year and drop significantly once AM + MM are eating up $22 mil cap and not < $2 mil now combined. As a result they have $20 mil more free cap space this year than next, which they currently using on JT at $11 mil and Nylander at $10.2 mil.

Everyone knows that your team doesn't get better simply by paying your own players more money and when those new contracts kick in, current players will be walking out the door for cap reasons and team depth will suffer significantly which in term hurts Cup competitiveness. Soon it will be Leafs 4 forwards + Reilly + Andersen and a roster mostly filled out with Marlies thereafter.

Lets hope this is Leafs year

We have 3 honest years for this and it starts this year. If they are serious they had better get another D and pad even more. Expend the picks and really do it. This is literally it, they should also just sign give Marner the news and get him signed to 10.5m x 5 as well. Get it done and structure that contract for trade as well because when Freddie and Rielly come up for contracts and then Lilj, Sandin, KK etc will be on deck, it's over.

 

[BlueForever75]

Tavares rushed the rebuild. And escalated the salaries. which were overinflated in the points inflated era our core has benefited from.

It is going to be a fun 5 years but the lack of depth could be our downfall in the parity NHL.

So are you calling the players that have yet to reach the NHL lacking? Cause not only is the majority of our lineup 25 years old and younger right now, but we also have many players that will be useful that haven't cracked the NHL yet!!! I don't get how that points to lack of depth when you consider the next 5years we will continue to draft players as well.

 

[Trapper]

Well I look at "rushed the rebuild" in terms of JT signing and now the Muzzin trade as Leafs going All-in on this season in hopes of winning the Cup while Matthews and Marner are on their ELC and producing at elite levels.

I think Leaf management is smart enough to recognize Leafs window of opportunity to win it all odds are greatest this year and drop significantly once AM + MM are eating up $22 mil cap and not < $2 mil now combined. As a result they have $20 mil more free cap space this year than next, which they currently using on JT at $11 mil and Nylander at $10.2 mil.

Everyone knows that your team doesn't get better simply by paying your own players more money and when those new contracts kick in, current players will be walking out the door for cap reasons and team depth will suffer significantly which in term hurts Cup competitiveness. Soon it will be Leafs 4 forwards + Reilly + Andersen and a roster mostly filled out with Marlies thereafter.

Lets hope this is Leafs year

Tavares didn’t rush the rebuild, he changed where you need to allocate money/position to the core.
We haven’t.
The core should be:
Matthews/Tavares
1 of Marner/Nylander
Rielly/Muzzin/RHD
Andersen

Money available to make sure our depth has some quality and not Goat/Ennis fill ins.
You need Kadri/Kappy/etc. level.

 

[BlueForever75]

We have 3 honest years for this and it starts this year. If they are serious they had better get another D and pad even more. Expend the picks and really do it. This is literally it, they should also just sign give Marner the news and get him signed to 10.5m x 5 as well. Get it done and structure that contract for trade as well because when Freddie and Rielly come up for contracts and then Lilj, Sandin, KK etc will be on deck, it's over.

Cap will increase, new CBA will come into play, new TV deal will triple in 2 years and other players will expire. There is no reason to panic, the Leafs will have enough money and cap space to keep the band together for a long time and compete for a long time.

 

[BlueForever75]

Tavares didn’t rush the rebuild, he changed where you need to allocate money/position to the core.
We haven’t.
The core should be:
Matthews/Tavares
1 of Marner/Nylander
Rielly/Muzzin/RHD
Andersen

Money available to make sure our depth has some quality and not Goat/Ennis fill ins.
You need Kadri/Kappy/etc. level.

Really do not see what Goat or Ennis for that matter have done to warrant such a point. They have their job adequately. Not the issue with this team.

 

[thewave]

Cap will increase, new CBA will come into play, new TV deal will triple in 2 years and other players will expire. There is no reason to panic, the Leafs will have enough money and cap space to keep the band together for a long time and compete for a long time.

Yes because 1/3 of the league is totally going under in depressed cities. The US cities are collapsing, read the data and you think the cap is going to the moon. Wake the f*** up and use your brain logically. There is going to be a claw back again or a freeze. Unless you believe that teams like Toronto will have to up payments to US cities so they can entertain 5000 people a night.

It's a big f***ing sham-scam

 

[Nithoniniel]

Tavares didn’t rush the rebuild, he changed where you need to allocate money/position to the core.
We haven’t.
The core should be:
Matthews/Tavares
1 of Marner/Nylander
Rielly/Muzzin/RHD
Andersen

Money available to make sure our depth has some quality and not Goat/Ennis fill ins.
You need Kadri/Kappy/etc. level.

I don't believe in structuring core after some formula. There's no reason we need half our d-men to be part of a core, not if it means excluding a potentially elite talent from that group. We get the best core guys possible, surround them with the best talent per cap dollar that we can find.

 

[supsens]

Your assumption does not include an influx of cash from a 3rd person. You're assuming cash is the same cash is circulated, not factoring outside dollars coming in.

I said adding a team does not automaticly mean a larger cap. Yes the third person is bringing 1 million.
Vegas can be a cash cow but Seattle could tail off and bring in average money after the new wears off. If toronto makes 3 the sens 1 and seattle brings in 2 then each team still only has two, same amount as if it were just the leafs at 3 and the sens at 1.
The cap will go up I am just pointing out more money isn't the same as a higher cap.

 

[Trapper]

Really do not see what Goat or Ennis for that matter have done to warrant such a point. They have their job adequately. Not the issue with this team.

They haven’t done anything wrong but injuries happen in 5 years/82 games and they aren’t guys to take more responsibility.
Kadri and Kapanen can be a no. 2 C or top line winger.

 

[Trapper]

I don't believe in structuring core after some formula. There's no reason we need half our d-men to be part of a core, not if it means excluding a potentially elite talent from that group. We get the best core guys possible, surround them with the best talent per cap dollar that we can find.

Well this is where we will differ them.
Nothing I can change about it anyway.
Dubas has chosen his path and playoffs will determine our strengths and weakness.

If you are committing to what you believe is the best way, it will need to be shown.
Can’t have players like Kapanen or Hyman being your best playoff performers or an uproar of D mistakes in the postseason.