Speculation: Leafs rushed the rebuild

[Stephen]

I screamed about this... SCREAMED about it... after the leafs 7 rookie team snuck into the playoffs. This was less than ONE year after we were told to "prepare for pain". I said that the rebuild WASN'T done. That we needed to improve our defensive prospect depth. But that MLSE wouldn't be able to control themselves and the rebuild would be over. And then (OF COURSE) the Marleau contract was signed, sealing our fate.

MLSE will never be able to not see the short term playoff profit margin. It will never go away. EVER.

And now we got too good too quickly, inflating our young players stats, making them sign for unprecedented numbers. This rebuild got royally ****ed up. Most leaf fans won't accept it yet. We've already been through so much, and they just can't accpet it. But they will. We pay unproven players far FAR too much money right now, and we won't be able to acquire the depth to make deep playoff runs.

Wait, so you would prefer that the Leafs were stuck in a kind of Arizona, Buffalo, Edmonton kind of purgatory?

 

[Suntouchable13]

I screamed about this... SCREAMED about it... after the leafs 7 rookie team snuck into the playoffs. This was less than ONE year after we were told to "prepare for pain". I said that the rebuild WASN'T done. That we needed to improve our defensive prospect depth. But that MLSE wouldn't be able to control themselves and the rebuild would be over. And then (OF COURSE) the Marleau contract was signed, sealing our fate.

MLSE will never be able to not see the short term playoff profit margin. It will never go away. EVER.

And now we got too good too quickly, inflating our young players stats, making them sign for unprecedented numbers. This rebuild got royally ****ed up. Most leaf fans won't accept it yet. We've already been through so much, and they just can't accpet it. But they will. We pay unproven players far FAR too much money right now, and we won't be able to acquire the depth to make deep playoff runs.

But you don't need to acquire depth. Usually when you "acquire" depth, that means you overpay mediocre UFAs (Clarkson, Marleau, etc). Your depth comes from your prospect pool. Pay your top talent and fill out your team with cheap players from your farm. Mix in some shrewd trades also here and there. I'd rather be where we are as opposed to where Edmonton, Arizona, Buffalo, Florida are.

 

[Stephen]

We have 6.....six.....SIX.. possible years to win a Stanley Cup now and we will have the primary skill and age of a corps of a team most of us have only dreamed about having for decades.

We also shouldn't assume Matthews is flying out the door after his 5 year contract. If things are going well, why would he up and leave? Also, if management, scouting, drafting and development is any good, they will have 6 drafts to go and unearth a Kucherov, Point, etc. mid round steal, keep the window of contention open.

 

[KuleminFan41]

If the Leafs ever win the cup, there will always be that section of Leafs fans who will not be able to enjoy it and find some reason to complain about it. Relax, enjoy Tavares being with the Leafs, they're a better and a stronger contender with him on the team. Not many teams can say they have 2 genuine #1 centres on their team, and the ones who do usually are Stanley Cup winners

 

[sxvnert]

I knew they would.

They weren’t ready to add a huge UFA like Tavares. The timing they had to make a choice and I get it. I said at the time how much I hated the decision.

Here it is now proving to us all why it was the wrong one. Yes he’s a hell of player but he destroyed the cap structure on the team. Leafs should of re signed their core before going after Tavares.

That should of been priority number one not getting another high priced forward. It arguably took away 3 years of us being competitive. Can’t even imagine what the Marner contract will look like either.

Rushing the rebuild is what Burke did. Trading two 1sts when the team should be bottoming out and drafting star players.

Leafs have an excellent young core to build around now with the Tavares signing.

Fact is also Tavares was a luxury not a need at all.

Kadri (4.5m third line center) and Marleau (6.25m third line winger) are luxury's. Tavares is a top 10 player who gives us a 1/2 punch few teams out there are capable of.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Wait, so you would prefer that the Leafs were stuck in a kind of Arizona, Buffalo, Edmonton kind of purgatory?

Uh.... no. It's just that our rebuild wasn't DONE yet less than one year after we were told to "prepare for pain." And that is proven by our lack of elite defenseive depth. The year we dressed (lol) 7 rookies was not supposed to be the year the rebuild ended. We needed one more quality pick.

 

[nuck]

I knew they would.

They weren’t ready to add a huge UFA like Tavares. The timing they had to make a choice and I get it. I said at the time how much I hated the decision.

Here it is now proving to us all why it was the wrong one. Yes he’s a hell of player but he destroyed the cap structure on the team. Leafs should of re signed their core before going after Tavares.

That should of been priority number one not getting another high priced forward. It arguably took away 3 years of us being competitive. Can’t even imagine what the Marner contract will look like either. Fact is also Tavares was a luxury not a need at all.

Doubt Matthews contract looked like this if not for Tavares.

Reported asks for Marner 9X8 and Matthews 12.34*8 in the summer (although Matthews there was a lot of different insider opinions on what the number in the summer was but either way it was 8 years.)

I kind of thought it was a weird signing at first because scoring forwards are not what the club lacks, but having JT as the clubs #2 is something only the Pens have had the benefit of. You have to admit he shows a different package than Matthews who gets injured on glancing open ice hits. He and Marner are a sweet tandem and if the club can get to the playoffs with JT and AM both cooking at the same time that is a sick one-two punch.

The salary inflation is driven by the agents, not their 20 year old clients. What we are seeing is a power play where agents are ignoring the status quo and circumventing the old way of a high performance player going from an underpaid group 2 to a richly rewarded and usually overpaid UFA. Their hammer is a hold out which worked for Nylander against the right GM, and the threat of an offer sheet which works against any GM if they see the threat to be a real one. Agents don't care if their clients win a Cup, they just want to get 5% of the biggest number they can. If their big earner clients are getting 75% of the cap they make more money than the numerically greater but lesser paid NHLers. Clubs have always been owned by their top players so this just makes it a bit worse.

 

[SprDaVE]

lol

 

[Throw More Waffles]

But you don't need to acquire depth. Usually when you "acquire" depth, that means you overpay mediocre UFAs (Clarkson, Marleau, etc). Your depth comes from your prospect pool. Pay your top talent and fill out your team with cheap players from your farm. Mix in some shrewd trades also here and there. I'd rather be where we are as opposed to where Edmonton, Arizona, Buffalo, Florida are.

That's PRECISELY what I wanted the leafs to do. Rebuild one more year (the seaons we dressed 7 rookies), and grab an elite defensive depth player. That player would still be 1-2 years away from their big post elc pay day. It's what should have happened.

 

[sxvnert]

The mistake was, Dubas failing to take the "gamble" of signing Marner and AM this summer while their prices were still reasonably low.

Zero chance either of them would have signed before this season. Why on earth would they work against their own interests?

 

[sxvnert]

Second in the NHL in goals. Hes worth every penny and then some.

 

[Pocket Hercules]

I knew they would.

They weren’t ready to add a huge UFA like Tavares. The timing they had to make a choice and I get it. I said at the time how much I hated the decision.

Here it is now proving to us all why it was the wrong one. Yes he’s a hell of player but he destroyed the cap structure on the team. Leafs should of re signed their core before going after Tavares.

That should of been priority number one not getting another high priced forward. It arguably took away 3 years of us being competitive. Can’t even imagine what the Marner contract will look like either. Fact is also Tavares was a luxury not a need at all.

Doubt Matthews contract looked like this if not for Tavares.

Reported asks for Marner 9X8 and Matthews 12.34*8 in the summer (although Matthews there was a lot of different insider opinions on what the number in the summer was but either way it was 8 years.)

Something tells me if there was another year tacked on to this extension, that this thread wouldn't of been created in the first place. Sorry for interrupting the pity party....carry on.

 

[Warden of the North]

No, they did not.

Ludicrous statement.

 

[Stephen]

Uh.... no. It's just that our rebuild wasn't DONE yet less than one year after we were told to "prepare for pain." And that is proven by our lack of elite defenseive depth. The year we dressed (lol) 7 rookies was not supposed to be the year the rebuild ended. We needed one more quality pick.

We replaced the lottery pick with Tavares... plus we did draft 2x defensemen in Sandin and Liljegren with high picks the past two years.

I for one am certainly "in pain" now.

 

[Rude Dog]

Ridiculous thread. Having said that, it would have been nice to envision a scenario where Mathews signed for 10, Marner 7 and Nylander 6. That was only a few years ago. That extra likely 5 million gets a pretty valuable piece towards trying to win. i understand why players want to look out for themselves...but you don't have to look much further than Chicago and McDavid's own Oilers to see what could potentially happen. I'll enjoy the Leafs winning the next three Stanley Cups and then I will sit back and tell everyone how great it used to be. Go Leafs.

 

[Stephen]

That's PRECISELY what I wanted the leafs to do. Rebuild one more year (the seaons we dressed 7 rookies), and grab an elite defensive depth player. That player would still be 1-2 years away from their big post elc pay day. It's what should have happened.

We did grab a defensive depth player. Ron Hainsey.

But to recap, we should have sabotaged the 2017 season for a defenseman. Fine.

Heiskanen was drafted 3rd, then Makar at 4. Heiskanen required winning a lottery for that pick. Then it was Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki and Liljegren.

Assuming we weren't bottom 5 bad, are we better off with no Tavares and one of Makar, Foote, Brannstrom or Valimaki instead of Liljegren?

 

[dubey]

I knew they would.

They weren’t ready to add a huge UFA like Tavares. The timing they had to make a choice and I get it. I said at the time how much I hated the decision.

Here it is now proving to us all why it was the wrong one. Yes he’s a hell of player but he destroyed the cap structure on the team. Leafs should of re signed their core before going after Tavares.

That should of been priority number one not getting another high priced forward. It arguably took away 3 years of us being competitive. Can’t even imagine what the Marner contract will look like either. Fact is also Tavares was a luxury not a need at all.

Doubt Matthews contract looked like this if not for Tavares.

Reported asks for Marner 9X8 and Matthews 12.34*8 in the summer (although Matthews there was a lot of different insider opinions on what the number in the summer was but either way it was 8 years.)

HAHA WHAT

 

[kb]

We did grab a defensive depth player. Ron Hainsey.

But to recap, we should have sabotaged the 2017 season for a defenseman. Fine.

Heiskanen was drafted 3rd, then Makar at 4. Heiskanen required winning a lottery for that pick. Then it was Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki and Liljegren.

Assuming we weren't bottom 5 bad, are we better off with no Tavares and one of Makar, Foote, Brannstrom or Valimaki instead of Liljegren?

Shhhh.....I like seeing the lesser lights amongst us get angry. It's entertaining.

 

[Daisy Jane]

(sigh)
How did the Leafs rush the rebuild?

they drafted really good players.
they played the really good players
then they got other really good players to support the other good players that we drafted and developed.

that's rebuilding right there.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

I don’t think you understand how much heavy lifting Tavares does. The Leafs are lucky to have him at a fair price. There’s a reason why great GMs such as Doug Wilson were heavily pursuing him. He’s a stud. And is going to be a stud for awhile.

There is literally nothing to dislike about the Tavares signing. Aside from the fact he hasn’t been given the “C” yet.

 

[smitty10]

Rushed the rebuild? Are you high?

We are in the situation we're in because of how successful the rebuild was! We managed to draft and/or developed Matthews, Rielly, Marner, Nylander, Dermott, Kapanen, Brown and Johnsson. We acquired Andersen, Muzzin and Hyman via trade. Signed Tavares and Marleau adding veteran leadership and skill to this group and creating the best lineup the Leafs have likely ever ice.

At what point does the OP suggest we 'go for it'? This is exactly the right time to contend. Otherwise, we just waste it, trade everyone away and enter a perennial rebuild like Edmonton.

 

[7even]

Why does every hot take include and I was right all along almost like it's motivated reasoning or something

 

[Eternal Leaf]

It's an expensive contract but let's not lose the plot.

Pretty much all of the decisions have been good (i.e. signing Nylander, signing Tavares, trading for Muzzin, signing Matthews). You can argue the details but not the talent coming in.

This team is going to be good for a long time to come.

 

[Peiskos]

The Leafs grew organically, some teams rebuild faster than others.

Hitting the jackpot in 3 drafts was critical and most rebuilding teams don’t find this kind of success. I mean...

Kadri 09’ draft
Rielly 12’ draft
Nylander 14’ draft
Marner 15’ draft
Matthews 16’ draft
Tavares 18’ FA

An absolutely beautiful core drafted by the Leafs, we need to realize how incredible a turn around it has been if you consider Kadri the start of this rebuild back in 2009.

What’s propelled the Leafs rebuild into warp speed was the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft hits. 3 franchise players in 3 years! Scratch that add JT and it’s 4 franchise players acquired in just 3 years things like that alter the course of franchises for many years..often for the better.

Tavares in free agency and coming home where his heart was? It was the perfect time and the perfect place, as JT said in his interview “the time was right”

The Leafs are on their path of destiny now, if it’s meant to be they will prevail and win a cup in this window we have opened for ourselves.

 

[DanM]

Uh.... no. It's just that our rebuild wasn't DONE yet less than one year after we were told to "prepare for pain." And that is proven by our lack of elite defenseive depth. The year we dressed (lol) 7 rookies was not supposed to be the year the rebuild ended. We needed one more quality pick.

I will say this. While I agree one more good draft was preferable, it was also not a guarantee. Also, we drafted Lily in 2017, who I still think has a great celing. We also have guys like Hallowell who is playing amazing, Sandin who is a stud, Bracco, Moore, Marchment, and so on, and it's not like we wont keep drafting, it's just WAY more important than ever.

I think we will get good deals done on Kappy and Johnsson, and I would not be shocked to see Mitch sign for 9, which is well above Willy (who I think we will laugh about when the cap increases, and he is back flying for a full season) and below Matty (#1C makes more historically)

We will be losing Brown, Zeitsev, Gards (who I would still move for assets, as I would have for JVR) and MAYBE I look at moving Kadri in the right deal. Make no mistake, Dubas will have to be shrewd going forward.

The cap will keep increasing every year, and even though I hated the length of today's AM deal, as the Cap inches up, it will make more sense.

Finally, yes Dubas is green, and he will need to develop a killer instinct for shrewd moves, but I still think he has been adequate. We are also entering a new era of RFA's and contract lengths. This will be the norm going forward, it just happened to be us that it started with.

The key will be drafting SUPER well over the next decade, and not sign anything below top 6 for an overpayment.