Line Combos: Leafs roster [Before] & [After] and work in progress

[Mess]

In a relatively mediocre division...this was our PK...

View attachment 460858

Leafs PK% was 24th of 31 teams last year and notice, we brought in David Kampf as a replacement for Hyman on the PK, yet Chicago PK% with Kampf as its leading SH TOI/G was 28th out 31 teams.

Did we address and improve this PK% that was bottom 8 in the league last year?

 

[zeke]

Andersen PK ga/60

14-15 (ANA): 5.63
15-16 (ANA): 5.59
16-17 (TOR): 5.70
17-18 (TOR): 5.88

18-19 (TOR): 7.39
19-20 (TOR): 7.56
20-21 (TOR): 9.19

Fred was good in Anaheim, then was good in Toronto.

Then he was bad in Toronto, and then he was awful in Toronto.

 

[egd27]

the easiest way to reduce his minutes would be to either play the Tavares-Nylander line more at even strength, or flip Marner and Nylander on those two lines.

of course, I didn't see any signs that Marner was playing too many minutes.

It's right on the top of the TOI Spreadsheet, how did you miss it?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Leafs PK% was 24th of 31 teams last year and notice, we brought in David Kampf as a replacement for Hyman on the PK, yet Chicago PK% with Kampf as its leading SH TOI/G was 28th out 31 teams.

Did we address and improve this PK% that was bottom 8 in the league last year?

Andersen PK ga/60

14-15 (ANA): 5.63
15-16 (ANA): 5.59
16-17 (TOR): 5.70
17-18 (TOR): 5.88

18-19 (TOR): 7.39
19-20 (TOR): 7.56
20-21 (TOR): 9.19

Fred was good in Anaheim, then was good in Toronto.

Then he was bad in Toronto, and then he was awful in Toronto.

What I noticed of Kampf this year as Chicago is my 2nd favorite team, they really tried to feed him important face offs. I think he could be a real good 4th line centre but if they move Kerfoot to LW in top 6 and try to play him as a 3C, people will be disappointed.

Toews/Dach going out really hurt.

I don't expect the Leafs to be in the top 10 for best PK, I still think that 15-20 is likely where they finish the season.

 

[Mess]

Andersen PK ga/60

14-15 (ANA): 5.63
15-16 (ANA): 5.59
16-17 (TOR): 5.70
17-18 (TOR): 5.88

18-19 (TOR): 7.39
19-20 (TOR): 7.56
20-21 (TOR): 9.19

Fred was good in Anaheim, then was good in Toronto.

Then he was bad in Toronto, and then he was awful in Toronto.

In 2017-18 Leafs had a #2 OA PP% and #10 OA PK%, and then 2018-19 thru 20-21 reflect the change in both the GM and Coach positions, and the results in PK% declined where it ended 24th overall last year and the PP% at 16th.

That gap in those stats between good and bad as you describe it best, signifies the management change timeline in Toronto impact on Leafs specialty teams performance.

 

[WTFMAN99]

In 2017-18 Leafs had a #2OA PP% and #10 OA PK%, and then 2018-19 thru 20-21 reflect the change in both the GM and Coach positions, and the results in PK% declined where it ended 24th overall last year and the PP% at 16th.

That gap in those stats between good and bad overlap the management change timeline in Toronto.

Damn, who was managing the team at that time?

 

[notbias]

Damn, who was managing the team at that time?

don't look up point percentage in that time.. you may not like it

 

[zeke]

In 2017-18 Leafs had a #2 OA PP% and #10 OA PK%, and then 2018-19 thru 20-21 reflect the change in both the GM and Coach positions, and the results in PK% declined where it ended 24th overall last year and the PP% at 16th.

That gap in those stats between good and bad as you describe it best, signifies the management change timeline in Toronto impact on Leafs specialty teams performance.

as the numbers show, the decline in PK was entirely due to Fred's decline, and the PK with Campbell in net this year was better than it has been at any time in memory.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Andersen played over 50 games in 15-16 and Ducks had #1 ranked PK
Leafs last season 19-20 had 21st ranked PK
How much of this is Andersen vs the Leafs?

I'm not sure what you think Andersen's goaltending 6 years ago has to do with the goaltending performances he's been giving lately. Toronto has good defensive results on the PK, and Andersen actually received the easiest defensive workload of any of our goalies. He was horrible. The problem was Andersen.

 

[Ashdown2]

2020 PK
campbell xGoals saved above exected ....... 2.5
andersen same thing .................................. -4.4

2019 PK
campbell xGoals saved above exected ....... -4.2
andersen same thing .................................. -11.1

2018 PK
sparks xGoals saved above exected ....... -1.3
andersen same thing .............................. -6.3

 

[Stephen]

The big question mark about Marner on the PK is if offensive production is the high end, big ticket item your team is investing in, maybe we shouldn’t be playing Marner in roles often reserved for guys lower on the depth chart so you get additional 5 on 5 shift at a higher energy level throughout a game. Is it really worth risking him blocking a shot on the off chance he can start a counter attack?

 

[All Mod Cons]

Note that he doesn't include goalies in this analysis, and if he did Campbell/Mrazek for $5.5m would vault TOR into 2nd spot over FLA with Bobrovsky/Knight st $11m.

Cool. But what's the point? Leafs are a good regular season team and shit in the playoffs? We know that. That is the issue.

 

[Menzinger]

Seems like Dubas try's to fix next year what the problem was last year.

vs CLB the problem was apparently Leadership in comes Spez, Joe, Simmonds, Brodie
vs Mtl Anderson trolly tracked all series - in comes Ritchie and that goon

Why is he fixing what will win last years playin/playoffs vs looking forward and adding what will help in this season?

What wins next playoff series though?

 

[Gabriel426]

In 2017-18 Leafs had a #2 OA PP% and #10 OA PK%, and then 2018-19 thru 20-21 reflect the change in both the GM and Coach positions, and the results in PK% declined where it ended 24th overall last year and the PP% at 16th.

That gap in those stats between good and bad as you describe it best, signifies the management change timeline in Toronto impact on Leafs specialty teams performance.

Who were our main PKers in 2017-18?

 

[Gabriel426]

What wins next playoff series though?

Marner scoring a goal or two, lol.

From the BJs and Habs series, Leafs had trouble scoring and thats all started at the top. AM and Marner needs to score at their regular season pace. In terms of beating the likes of TB, just send Simmonds to crash into Vas hard and send him to the press box for the series and then hope Kuch, Point, Hedman and Stamkos all gets injured or just hit a cold streak plus Cooper not available, or just have those players test positive in COVID and they will be out of the series.

 

[Ashdown2]

Marner scoring a goal or two, lol.

From the BJs and Habs series, Leafs had trouble scoring and thats all started at the top. AM and Marner needs to score at their regular season pace. In terms of beating the likes of TB, just send Simmonds to crash into Vas hard and send him to the press box for the series and then hope Kuch, Point, Hedman and Stamkos all gets injured or just hit a cold streak plus Cooper not available, or just have those players test positive in COVID and they will be out of the series.

thats every team in the league ... if your stars or top line doesnt score you have a very low chance of winning. .... its not rocket science.
let go check with colorado if they are going to win a series if mckinnon, rant and lang are not scoring.


to be fair and what everyone forgets is the goaltending they faced in those 2 series were unusually outstanding. They play those series again and they win 9 out of 10 times. if you take a step back they outplayed by a large margin those 2 teams. the stats dont lie and the eye test doesnt lie.

how many times are you going to lose an OT game outshooting your opponent 12-0 in an elimination game ? like cmon people

 

[NinjaKick]

as the numbers show, the decline in PK was entirely due to Fred's decline, and the PK with Campbell in net this year was better than it has been at any time in memory.

now do the powerplay

2nd overall PP% to 16th overall PP%... that's not good...

 

[Coachcorner]

Leafs PK% was 24th of 31 teams last year and notice, we brought in David Kampf as a replacement for Hyman on the PK, yet Chicago PK% with Kampf as its leading SH TOI/G was 28th out 31 teams.

Did we address and improve this PK% that was bottom 8 in the league last year?

We sure didn't address any of that there. Bogosian gone too, played some of the PK. Polak gone. Ritchie ain't play the PK. I don't think Kase or Butning will play that neither. Now its marner, Kämph with the dots, Mikheyev with ether Kerfoot or Matthews..... that ain't the best way to go sire. No, not at all. We also have pk forces in D: Rielly, Holl, Brodie, Muzzin. That's aaaaaight. It ain't the best, but its ok. Our penalty kill will not be our best assest once again. Our goalies will have to make some huge saves for us. We might be under the worst 16 teams with the PK again.

Our powerplay though, if malhotra is gone, might be one of the better ones. Tavares should just always start with it. 100% of the time. With matthews, marner. Then build it there.

 

[Gabriel426]

thats every team in the league ... if your stars or top line doesnt score you have a very low chance of winning. .... its not rocket science.
let go check with colorado if they are going to win a series if mckinnon, rant and lang are not scoring.


to be fair and what everyone forgets is the goaltending they faced in those 2 series were unusually outstanding. They play those series again and they win 9 out of 10 times. if you take a step back they outplayed by a large margin those 2 teams. the stats dont lie and the eye test doesnt lie.

how many times are you going to lose an OT game outshooting your opponent 12-0 in an elimination game ? like cmon people

Goaltending was not the only reason they lost the past two years.
AM and Marner needs to show up on the scoreboard. You can’t expect any teams to go far if 25% of the cap is not performing.

The team(MGt and players) need to be accountable for losing a 3-1 series lead. They could not get the job done in 3 games, in which they didn’t come out to play till the 3rd period in two of them and didn’t show up at all in the last one. Same as last year, they didn’t show up till 5-6mins remaining in elimination(Game 4) and then didn’t bother showing up in Game 5. The year before that, they came up short in Game 6 and just flat out crap in Game 7.

it is not about learning any more but rather, can these guys do it or is losing in Game 7 a habit or worse, they collectively think the regular season is 89games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

thats every team in the league ... if your stars or top line doesnt score you have a very low chance of winning. .... its not rocket science.
let go check with colorado if they are going to win a series if mckinnon, rant and lang are not scoring.


to be fair and what everyone forgets is the goaltending they faced in those 2 series were unusually outstanding. They play those series again and they win 9 out of 10 times. if you take a step back they outplayed by a large margin those 2 teams. the stats dont lie and the eye test doesnt lie.

how many times are you going to lose an OT game outshooting your opponent 12-0 in an elimination game ? like cmon people

Campbell was outstanding for us, we ran into a hot goalie but guess what, so did our opponent. Goaltending wasn't even close to being the reason we lost.

How many times are you going win in the playoffs when you are 0-7 in games where you have a chance to close it out? We've been outscored 18-6 in the last 4 series deciding games, 11-2 in the last 3, how do you expect to ever win when you don't show up to play when the stakes are the highest? Like cmon people!

 

[Gary Nylund]

now do the powerplay

2nd overall PP% to 16th overall PP%... that's not good...

Some people only want to talk about the positive stuff so I suggest you don't hold your breath waiting for a thoughtful answer.

 

[Mess]

We sure didn't address any of that there. Bogosian gone too, played some of the PK. Polak gone. Ritchie ain't play the PK. I don't think Kase or Butning will play that neither. Now its marner, Kämph with the dots, Mikheyev with ether Kerfoot or Matthews..... that ain't the best way to go sire. No, not at all. We also have pk forces in D: Rielly, Holl, Brodie, Muzzin. That's aaaaaight. It ain't the best, but its ok. Our penalty kill will not be our best assest once again. Our goalies will have to make some huge saves for us. We might be under the worst 16 teams with the PK again.

Our powerplay though, if malhotra is gone, might be one of the better ones. Tavares should just always start with it. 100% of the time. With matthews, marner. Then build it there.

We have at least 1 new assistant coach coming in replacing Dave Hakstol who left for Seattle. Dean Chynoweth might be able to provide some input to struggling specialty teams because it doesn't seem via player personnel it was addressed and perhaps the loss of Hyman vs Kampf may have at best broken even.

Kampf 1 goal in 56 games is not going to scare the opposition into thinking he is going to run up many shorthanded goals and with the added toughness added more PK opportunities are likely to occur as a result.

I haven't heard anything about Malhotra departure, but him being in charge of a struggling PP as a defensive specialist seems like an odd assignment of duties. IMO

 

[Gary Nylund]

Cool. But what's the point? Leafs are a good regular season team and shit in the playoffs? We know that. That is the issue.

Exactly.

 

[Mess]

Some people only want to talk about the positive stuff so I suggest you don't hold your breath waiting for a thoughtful answer.

Unfortunately its not the positive stuff that is bringing the Leafs down in the playoffs.

Its great that Matthews wins the Rocket Richard during the regular season, but if he only produces 1 goal in 7 playoff games and a struggling PP% impacts his offense and the teams and the Leafs are out in the 1st round each year, then you have to fix what is broken not ignore it and praise only the good stuff that happened in the regular season.

Leafs players excel in the wide open regular season, but struggle in the lower scoring, hard hitting, tighter checking playoffs ,where they have to evolve the team to be better when it matters most the playoffs, even if systems and style of play during the regular season needs to change and sacrifice individual stats for the greater good.

Breaking up Marner and Matthews after 2 X sub par playoff performances as linemates is probably a good place to start planning, because regular season All star team designations doesn't translate to playoff performances as the opposition game plan limits their effectiveness and shuts them down.

 

[Ashdown2]

Goaltending was not the only reason they lost the past two years.
AM and Marner needs to show up on the scoreboard. You can’t expect any teams to go far if 25% of the cap is not performing.

The team(MGt and players) need to be accountable for losing a 3-1 series lead. They could not get the job done in 3 games, in which they didn’t come out to play till the 3rd period in two of them and didn’t show up at all in the last one. Same as last year, they didn’t show up till 5-6mins remaining in elimination(Game 4) and then didn’t bother showing up in Game 5. The year before that, they came up short in Game 6 and just flat out crap in Game 7.

it is not about learning any more but rather, can these guys do it or is losing in Game 7 a habit or worse, they collectively think the regular season is 89games.

im beginning to think that the leafs community would have been happier if this team got swept instead of having to deal with game 7 heartaches.

dude the first line had an expected goals of over 13 and they scored 2 ......... they had higher totals then teams who made it to the second round ... either you believe they are missing on purpose or the goaltending was really good ?

and people need to stop blaming just AM and MM... ffs sacks hyman was expected to score close to 5 which was the most on the team and he SCORED 1 GODDAMN GOAL with 4 points over 2 years ... and yet no one cares. ... Just to put that number in prospective , he had as many expected goals as TYLER TOFFOLI and YANNI GOURDE for their WHOLE playoff run !!!

ya it sucks its sport shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit happen , seems like the leafs have all the bad luck in the world ,
tavares in the lineup they destroy the habs in 4 . a freak injury and it becomes a close series ... a shit bounce in game 5 and series is over , blah blah blah … if sports were predicable vegas would be broke