Like every Leafs playoff year for decades, moving on with a new GM is a chance at redemption and potential disaster.
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Whatever the full truth of it, the pressure is indeed on Shanahan now, after all these years of flying above the weather. Auston Matthews holds the hammer of Thor over this organization, with his no-move clause kicking in July 1 and one year left on his deal. His camp is known to be close to Dubas. The idea of trading Mitch Marner ends July 1 as well, when his no-move kicks in. William Nylander has one year left and a 10-team trade list as of July 1.
There are also 10 free agents, a coach who seems doomed, and so many of these problems interlock with another one. The only things that are truly bolted down are Morgan Rielly, John Tavares (whose increasingly uncomfortable captaincy and role might be a first-order problem in a less uncertain organization), Jake McCabe, kids such as Joseph Woll and Matthew Knies and Conor Timmins, plus Calle Järnkrok for some reason.
Whoever comes in will be under the gun, running a franchise that rivals will see as weakened and under pressure, with stars who can soon decide whether they want to continue to carry the burden of playing for this franchise after all. It’s a hell of a job, with the opportunity to succeed or to die on the rocks. It’s far from clear what happens next.
But what is clear is this organization has cracked.
This year, the relationship between Shanahan and Dubas fractured to a point where they could not negotiate quickly and easily. Whether that was because of the toll on Dubas’s family or a gap in hockey philosophy or simply the pressure of the year, it was clear. Meanwhile, as Pierre LeBrun reported, the well-regarded Jason Spezza, who served as an assistant to Dubas this year, tendered his resignation Friday.
It is clear the staff have cracked. Shanahan admitted people in the organization were devastated by this. Dubas’s relationship with the people he works with is a powerful thing, and one of his great strengths. If his family issues were as serious as he portrayed — and I continue to believe they were — they must have been a significant part of his willingness to return. A lot of people in the organization are now worrying about their jobs.
It was clear this year that the best players on this team cracked in Game 3 of the Panthers series, the game that changed everything, the last stop for the core. When your best players don’t show up for the biggest game of the year, something is wrong no matter what they tell themselves about it.
One other thing is clear, by the way: This Leafs era has been defined by hope as a strategy. Shanahan and Dubas hoped Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander could combine to be a winning playoff core, and the Leafs ran their contracts and the GM’s contract right into this point where the highway turns to gravel, and you don’t know what comes next. Shanahan hoped Dubas was coming back until he wasn’t. Plan B now looms.
What is clear is, the Leafs as we have recently known them are over — that Dubas will no longer define the franchise he and Shanahan have built, and that the end was messy, and that whoever comes in next will shoulder all the pressure that cracked yokes across the organization. The Dubas era of the Leafs is over after five years, and you can argue that it was too soon or too late or both. But either way, the clock is ticking like a bomb.