Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose 4-1

[PromisedLand]

We get into this bad habit of puck watching in the defensive zone and fail to locate the opposing player and gain position. We just get so fixated on the puck and don't take care of the defensive responsibility which is first priority.

The Frederik SH point blank chance/ Geekie goal are perfect examples and you can get away with this against mediocre teams but against elite teams it'll sink you.

Somebody needs to remind them Gretzy's quote "“Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been"

 

[ACC1224]

The ledge-jumping when they go down a goal or two is a bit much for me.

The constant crying about the Refs does get tiring.

 

[PromisedLand]

The ledge-jumping when they go down a goal or two is a bit much for me.

To each their own I suppose. I LOVE IT!

 

[Zybalto]

Did the guy ask him about Boston’s trade deadline needs?

Gonna have to ask someone else.

I see Button and I'm out.

 

[PromisedLand]

Noting, this is the #2 PP team in the league currently.

Second, Point shots are so overrated... their success rate is incredibly low, 1% with no traffic, 3% with traffic.... tips are another story, and you don't need a good shot for tips.

If you look at past playoffs as a large sample point shots are really important. Most of the teams that have had success have had point shot threats. And its not just on the PP but also even strength when forwards work the puck back up to the points for a wrister or slapper with traffic in front of goalie

I think you are underestimating the effectiveness of point shots.

 

[Zybalto]

The constant crying about the Refs does get tiring.

First time in my life I saw 2 back to back blown calls on delayed penalty possession. You have to at least admit that was bizarre.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Bert-Domi-Willy is a line that can score but can’t really play defence. In the past we’ve had lines that can play defence but can’t really score.

We’ve had multiple years of the latter and we won squat that way. It very clearly isn’t a perfect line and is a liability but all three of those guys upped their play when the games mattered most.

 

[Fogelhund]

If you look at past playoffs as a large sample point shots are really important. Most of the teams that have had success have had point shot threats. And its not just on the PP but also even strength when forwards work the puck back up to the points for a wrister or slapper with traffic in front of goalie

I think you are underestimating the effectiveness of point shots.

Is this based on any studies?

 

[ACC1224]

First time in my life I saw 2 back to back blown calls on delayed penalty possession. You have to at least admit that was bizarre.

Bizarre for sure but nothing sinister about it.

 

[Evilhomer]

The constant crying about the Refs does get tiring.

I don't even entertain the "everyone is biased against the Leafs" stuff. I'm too old to use the time I have left to argue about conspiracy theories.

 

[wingman75]

Sure. But what about my question? What other C do we have that goes anywhere near the middle of the ice in games against teams like the Bruins? Legit question. I dunno what Babs has to do with anything? Didn't he keep Marner and Matthews apart for like ever?

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's the right attitude to have. Regular season games don't mean much other than determining playoff seeding. Get home ice advantage if you can, but otherwise the rest of the regular season doesn't matter much.

Yeah if you can. And if you can't, not a big deal. Just be ready to play is all that really matters, maybe one of these days these cupcakes will figure out how to do that.

Gonna have to ask someone else.

I see Button and I'm out.

Button and Botterill should have their own show. I have no doubt they could come up with something roughly on the level of Tim and Sid.

I don't even entertain the "everyone is biased against the Leafs" stuff. I'm too old to use the time I have left to argue about conspiracy theories.

You mean you really don't believe that a league wide conspiracy involving all the referees to call more penalties against one Canadian team would up the value of franchises located in the US?

 

[Nineteen67]

Gonna have to ask someone else.

I see Button and I'm out.

That’s the best way. Avoid, but comment.

 

[PromisedLand]

Is this based on any studies?

If you are just looking at Spreadsheet analysis, xGA or what % of goals are scored from the points then IMO that is incomplete.

What happens after point shot is taken is also as important. In the playoffs, its already hard to score goals as things tighten up; when point shots are taken you are in an attacking position; teams usually capitalize with rebounds or boards battle as there are usually defensive breakdowns after point shots are taken. This study IMO doesn't exist; It is my opinion based on watching playoffs for years.

I suppose your take on point shots come from the following article

Point Shots Suck

Yes, they really are terrible

hockeysarsenal.substack.com

I personally think that article is DUMB. I can refute everything that article says. But I we will agree to disagree here.

I will give you one example:
Just recall Game 7 against Boston in 2013. Point shots created a pain in the ass. Your counter might be that Riemer was swimming like fish out of water; and yes you are partially right but that is not the whole story. Point shots generate panic in the defensive end when middle of the ice is taken away and forwards are kept to the outside which is basically always the case with teh leafs.

 

[meefer]

Im not sure I could take another 88-91 combo. Huge mistake to go back to that imo. Tavares looks as good as he has been this year playing away from the flashy gang and that 3rd line actually looks legit. I would be tempted to try Holmberg with Willy and Bert even though I think the 4th line has also looked quite legit lately but not sure where that leaves Domi as I dont think you want him on the 4th line.

Would you consider?

Domi Matthews Marner
(pick your order, I think the next two lines are fairly = in 5x5 toi.)
McMann Tavares Jarnkrok
Bert Holmberg Willy
Knies Kamph Reaves

L #1: becomes, perhaps outside of Willy, the most dangerous combination the team can offer.
L#2/3: JT's wears them down, Willy's is a mix of everything, mucker/D/skill.
L #4: With Holmberg they've been great. Can Knies hold down the fort? Adds skill vs level.

 

[PromisedLand]

Sure. But what about my question? What other C do we have that goes anywhere near the middle of the ice in games against teams like the Bruins? Legit question. I dunno what Babs has to do with anything? Didn't he keep Marner and Matthews apart for like ever?

that was the joke. babs was adamant on not having Matthews and Marner not play together. To have the two best forwards on two separate lines to create match up problems for the opposition. Of course Leafs were still developing then....

IMO our two best players shouldn't be playing together, especially in the playoffs - if there is historical evidence that they get shut down and opposition then can just focus on them and have an easy night. You gotta give opposition something to think about in terms of their game plan

Domi and Bert go to the net from what I've seen they have no issues taking abuse in front of the net same as tavares. Matthews usually plays perimeter hockey as he relies on his shot.

Problem with having Marner with Tavares is that Tavares then will see a lot of ice-time and harder QoC; which IMO at this time with his skating ability is not a good idea.

I would go

Jankrok-Matthews-Nylander
Bert-Domi-Marner (Marner also being defensive conscience on the line)
Knies-Tavares-McMann (get Knies away from top QoC)
4th line

I would run these lines to see how they work out.

 

[Evilhomer]

You mean you really don't believe that a league wide conspiracy involving all the referees to call more penalties against one Canadian team would up the value of franchises located in the US?

On September 11 I was in the North Tower. For years afterwards, when certain people found out I was in the building they would launch into their many conspiracy theories about what happened on that day, how it happened, who did it, etc. I was in my early thirties back then, and patience (and arguably maturity) was not one of my stronger features in those days. I eventually learned that sometimes you don't have to try to convince someone that a plane hit a building. Sometimes it's just better to let believe as they wish, no matter how incorrect they may be, because everyone has to come to their own maturity in time.

 

[wingman75]

that was the joke. babs was adamant on not having Matthews and Marner not play together. To have the two best forwards on two separate lines to create match up problems for the opposition. Of course Leafs were still developing then....

IMO our two best players shouldn't be playing together, especially in the playoffs - if there is historical evidence that they get shut down and opposition then can just focus on them and have an easy night. You gotta give opposition something to think about in terms of their game plan

Domi and Bert go to the net from what I've seen they have no issues taking abuse in front of the net same as tavares. Matthews usually plays perimeter hockey as he relies on his shot.

Problem with having Marner with Tavares is that Tavares then will see a lot of ice-time and harder QoC; which IMO at this time with his skating ability is not a good idea.

I would go

Jankrok-Matthews-Nylander
Bert-Domi-Marner (Marner also being defensive conscience on the line)
Knies-Tavares-McMann (get Knies away from top QoC)
4th line

I would run these lines to see how they work out.

Yea, tough call fitting the right pieces together. Having guys go to the net is different from guys getting open in a tightly contest slot area. If Marner is willing to put the puck on the net, then it would work, but it Marner is only willing to make that extra pass, it probably will not work.

Good point on JT, time on ice and matchups. I think he is positioned now here he can make the most impact.

 

[Zybalto]

On September 11 I was in the North Tower. For years afterwards, when certain people found out I was in the building they would launch into their many conspiracy theories about what happened on that day, how it happened, who did it, etc. I was in my early thirties back then, and patience (and arguably maturity) was not one of my stronger features in those days. I eventually learned that sometimes you don't have to try to convince someone that a plane hit a building. Sometimes it's just better to let believe as they wish, no matter how incorrect they may be, because everyone has to come to their own maturity in time.

Heh, yea, that conspiracy is a wild one in that there is so much evidence one way and the amount of people involved would be so insanely high that it proves people will believe anything.

Maybe that's why the govt. Is moving so hard in the direction of control of information?

When it comes to the Leafs, the fact that calls going against us is such a part of our current playoff lore (Gilmour high stick, phantom high stick the other way, etc.) It just feeds the narrative. Not finding post season success and what seem to be harsher suspensions just pushes people further over the ledge.

 

[PromisedLand]

Great timing.
After last nights disappointment we just got our renewal notice and playoff invoice.

Anyone who doesn't believe they want to go to the finals every year hasn't seen a playoff ticket invoice.

I am having trouble buying groceries and putting food on the table and other costs. No way am buying Leafs regular season tickets; forget about playoff tickets

 

[PromisedLand]

Yea, tough call fitting the right pieces together. Having guys go to the net is different from guys getting open in a tightly contest slot area. If Marner is willing to put the puck on the net, then it would work, but it Marner is only willing to make that extra pass, it probably will not work.

Good point on JT, time on ice and matchups. I think he is positioned now here he can make the most impact.

Yup I think JT will be most effective as a 3C where he is positioned at present.

We have a Catch 22 situation given the cap space too. We want a productive top6 winger who plays 2 way hockey and is a power forward and also want top4 D that can eat up minutes but also want to hold on Matthews, Marner, Nylander. I mean realistically speaking that is only possible if we draft and develop; and have the guy(s) on their ELCs helping out.

I really don't think realistically speaking that we can trade for such a player who will fit under the cap while still holding on to matthews, marner and nylander. May be in future but today at present it is almost next to impossible unless we trade a lot of futures for retention. Other teams are not going to do us any favors they are in there to compete too and build their future.

Marner and Nylander HAVE to modify the way they play the game. They have to add that extra element of dirty/nasty to go on with finesse plays. If they don't then we will see the same results or tough choices are going to have to be made by the GM.

Given the way the roster is now and cap space we have in addition to assets we have we are really constrained IMO. We gotta do what we can.

Personally, I'd hold on to the 1st round pick and not throw it away. I want to see if they improve upon last year's result with what the roster is at present. I want to see the core guys outperform their previous performances before I invest 1st round puck.

Me personally if I was the GM I would hold on to the 1st round pick and remain status-quo. Let them go out and show me if they can improve upon their past performances. Meanwhile, I continue to draft/develop and build for the future. We've needed a re-tool for a while; and time is ripe to use the time that Tavares is on Leafs cap to do a re-tool and not force the issue.

Reasons:
- We don't have decent d-men and can't afford it currently
- our goalies are a hail mary. we can't for sure say that Samsonov and Woll will play lights out good
- we basically have rookies in the line up who are still getting their feet wet -> Knies, McMann, Holmberg. Robertson (whenever he gets to play )
- Next year you can add Minton and Cowen to that mix where they learn what NHL is all about.

I would preach patience at this point; and if I was the GM thats how I'd approach the situation -> retool and build for future and then re-assess.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Going from a Thomas to Rask to Swayman is such an embarrassment of riches. And they signed Ullmark to boot, who I wanted the Leafs to sign when they had the chance.

 

[PromisedLand]

Going from a Thomas to Rask to Swayman is such an embarrassment of riches. And they signed Ullmark to boot, who I wanted the Leafs to sign when they had the chance.

I can quantify it somewhat. Boston is a no nonsense organization. They traded Seguin ffs.

Then they traded for Hall, signed him cheap (one year removed from Hart season); then traded Hall b/c he didn't fit even after Hall signed cheap in hopes of remaining in Boston.

The only "constant" in Boston; i.e. those who remain are the ones that put will above skill. They have skilled players but their skilled players are often the most hardworking players out there.

Chara/Bergeron set the example that others are now following. Good thing Boston completely effed up on the 2015 draft passing on Barzal, Connor, Chabot ; else they would be a freakin dynasty.

Boston's luck regarding goalies is something I am not sure how to quantify though.

 

[weems]

Is this based on any studies?

My biggest problem with this is, so you've run the simulations/numbers and concluded that point shots are negative EV.

Now what happens when the opposing team figures out that you will literally almost never shoot the puck from the point?

They will adjust their strategy and be able to potentially exploit you knowing this.

So usually they would run a defensive setup where they have balanced pressure but now that they can subtract this one area of shot, they can now deploy pressure towards the more dangerous scoring threats without the fear of getting burned.

For us that means more defensive pressure is going to be pushed towards Matthews/Marner/Nylander, resulting in less time and space to make magic happen.

Maybe point shots are overrated but I don't think that means you should just totally stop taking them all together or that having someone with a heavy shot isn't still a big positive.

 

[ACC1224]

My biggest problem with this is, so you've run the simulations/numbers and concluded that point shots are negative EV.

Now what happens when the opposing team figures out that you will literally almost never shoot the puck from the point?

They will adjust their strategy and be able to potentially exploit you knowing this.

So usually they would run a defensive setup where they have balanced pressure but now that they can subtract this one area of shot, they can now deploy pressure towards the more dangerous scoring threats without the fear of getting burned.

For us that means more defensive pressure is going to be pushed towards Matthews/Marner/Nylander, resulting in less time and space to make magic happen.

Maybe point shots are overrated but I don't think that means you should just totally stop taking them all together or that having someone with a heavy shot isn't still a big positive.

Exactly, more options makes it tougher to defend.